How Big Is Sunday's Game?

by Tim on Oct 2, 2008 5:18 PM CDT in News Comment 8 comments

The fanbase of your Houston Texans generally thought this was going to be the year. The year of what, you might ask? Some people (this humble/moronic blogger included) thought this would be the year the Texans finished with a winning record. Others thought this'd be the year the Texans finally snagged a wild card spot. No one, and I mean NO ONE (that I remember, anyway) thought there was a chance that this season could rival the horror of 2005. Of course, no one counted on a hurricane shuffling the team's 2008 schedule, either.

Now, I'm not saying we're headed for a two (2) win season. This team, flawed as it may be, has far too much talent for that. I will, however, say this: Sunday's tilt hosting the Colts is quite simply the biggest game the Texans will play all season. Win, and the Texans are 1-3, with another three (3) home games in a row against teams that are probably not playoff contenders. The Texans have never won three (3) games in a row, so it's a gigantic leap of faith to call for them to take the next four (4) consecutive games. But taking three out of those four? I do not believe that's altogether crazy. Blurred by battle red glasses, perhaps, but not outside the realm of possibility.

Lose on Sunday though, and that's 25% of the season gone with nary a single win. I'm no mathematician, but that would mean a winless Texans team would have to go 9-3 the rest of the season to post a winning record. Fandom and optimism aside, that's a very remote possibility. The most realistic, best-case scenario after starting 0-4, I'd think, would be .500 the rest of the way. And that would mean a final record of 6-10, which would be tough, if not damn near impossible, to call anything but a failure of a season.

Thus, here we are. Three (3) days away from the tipping point of the 2008 Texans season. Win, and the majority of the fanbase is likely still guzzling the Kool-Aid and chalking up the 1-3 start to quality opponents and/or bad luck. Lose, and...well, I don't even want to think about it, but rest assured that the bloom will be completely off the rose at Reliant Park.

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Not so fast

I disagree. I think the Texans will keep the Colts close on Sunday, but even if we don’t, it’s no time to panic. We get an easy run for the next couple of games, and if the secondary can get it together during that span, we can play with any team in the league. Plus we should get Dunta Robinson back sometime in the next 4 or 5 weeks, and he will be much needed.

by The Huck Show on Oct 2, 2008 5:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Not So Fast

I’m with you about the game in terms of keeping it close; I don’t think we’re in for a blowout either way, and I think there’s a good chance the Texans could win a close one against the Colts. They’re hurt, and Peyton’s still not back to being Peyton (though that will happen this season).

But I don’t see any way the secondary gets it together on anything resembling a consistent basis. The complete lack of a pass rush means Reeves, Bennett & Co. have to hold their assignments longer than they’re capable of doing. I’m absolutely terrified of what Peyton (even if he’s only at 80%) is going to do to them on Sunday. With regard to Dunta, there’s nothing I would love more than for him to come in and return to form. I just don’t see it happening this season. That injury was horrific, and I can’t see him coming back at anything but a step or half a step slow. I have no doubt he’ll be back to being the Dunta we all know and love in ‘09; I just can’t see it in ’08.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Oct 2, 2008 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't count on the Colts still being injured

They have two starters on the PUP (SLB Tyjuan Hagler and LG Ryan Lilja) and one on the injury report (Bob Sanders) and that’s it. This is the healthiest the Colts have been all year, by far. Their only other injuries is a WR who only plays on special teams (Roy Hall) and backup guard/tackle (Dan Federkiel) who is knocked back out of the starting lineup by Ugoh and Saturday’s return.

I ain't tryin' do you, I'm just tryin do me
Last album did two, I'm just tryin' do three
-Young Jeezy "I Luv It"

by shake n bake on Oct 2, 2008 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Damn You And Your Facts, Shake N Bake!

True or false: The loss of Bob Sanders is catastrophic for the IND defense and will have a large effect on what the HOU offense can do on Sunday.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Oct 2, 2008 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

false

when the D is relying on Sanders to stop the run they are already in trouble. If the DTs are getting blown off the ball and the LBs aren’t holding their gaps they will be bad against the run with or without Bob.

There are few bigger Bob Sanders fans than me (see my avatar) but losing him isn’t a death blow. There are safeties that play the run as well as him, there are safeties that play the pass as well as him, there are next to none that can do both nearly as well as he does. The thing that makes him special is that he can be a great run stopper even while his first assignment is to shut down a deep half of the field.

The D isn’t as good without him, but he’s a balanced player that was replaced by a balanced player. The D is a bit worse across the board, but losing him doesn’t open any glaring holes.

What I think will really dictate the Texans success on O is how the new addition DTs play. LaJuan Ramsey and Daniel Muir are the big bodies they need to replace Ed Johnson and Quinn Pitcock. Muir is healthy for the first time this year (he was cut by GB at the final cut to 53 because he was too hurt to play for the start of the season) and Ramsey played his first game against the Jags looked like more than the stiff he was advertised as by the people I talked to when they picked him up.

If Ramsey and Muir can hold down one DT spot on run downs and the OLBs Keiaho and Sessions improve from a very bad game against the Jags then the Colts will finally stop the run and they will do it without Sanders. If those things don’t happen they will get run on and some of those runs Bob would have stopped for a 5-6 yard gain will go for longer.

(This novel sponsored by the 2008 Cubs, “thanks for getting believing in us, Shake. Getting outscored 13 to 2 at home in the first 14 innings of the series is how we’ll repay you.”)

I ain't tryin' do you, I'm just tryin do me
Last album did two, I'm just tryin' do three
-Young Jeezy "I Luv It"

by shake n bake on Oct 2, 2008 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Re: Cubs

As a ‘Stros fan, to say nothing of the fact that I’m still fuming about Selig hijacking the biggest series of the season to Wrigley North, let me say that I could not be happier that the Cubbies are struggling now that it really counts. No offense to you, of course, but I am a big LAD supporter these days.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Oct 2, 2008 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs