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You're Not Fooling Me, Statistics: Jacques Reeves Is Not A Good CB

I was waiting for this. I knew it was coming. Despite what our eyes have screamed at us throughout the 2008 season, it finally happened: Someone (in this case, John McClain) has put forth the argument that Jacques Reeves isn't an utter failure at CB. I appreciate McClain running the numbers, as statistics can generally be counted on to tell the tale. But it's ludicrous to argue that Reeves is a better CB and/or having a better season than Aaron Ross, Asante Samuel, Marcus Trufant, Ike Taylor, Ronde Barber, and the like. A couple of reasons why:

-Your Houston Texans are currently giving up 129.1 rushing yards per game (ranked 23rd in the NFL). When teams are successfully running the ball, they simply don't need to throw as much. Passing is a much riskier proposition than running the ball. Why put it in the air if you don't have to? Thus, any attempt to use the metrics cited by McClain (targets, completions, yards surrendered, touchdowns surrendered) as proof of greatness or mediocrity should be taken with a pint of salt.

-For the majority of the season, the Texans have started Petey Faggins opposite Reeves. This just in: Petey may be the only DB in the league worse than Jacques Reeves. Seems to me that opposing QBs can go to either side with impunity, thus reducing the number of times Reeves would be picked on if he had a serviceable CB opposite him.

-Finally, and most importantly, your eyes don't lie. Throughout the season, we've seen how bad Jacques Reeves is at his job. Again, he can usually stay stride-for-stride with any WR in the NFL. Yet as a general rule, Reeves still refuses to get his hands up and/or turn his head. Typically, it looks as if he has no idea where the ball is. I'll begrudgingly admit that Reeves has gotten better in the past two weeks about getting his hands up, but it's not like he could have ever gotten any worse. Jacques Reeves still has a bullseye on his back.

Am I nuts? Or has McClain made his case? Let it fly in the Comments below.

0 recs  |  Comment 23 comments |

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Comments

Display:

Scapegoat?

Look, I don’t like Reeves either, but he’s not as bad as everyone is making him out to be. He can stay with his man virtually all the time. Even when he gets beaten, he’s demonstrated top notch catch-up speed. His biggest problem is locating the ball on deep routes. He actually has decent ball skills, he just doesn’t seem to be able to locate the ball in order to utilize said skills.

This man has joined Richard Smith in being a scapegoat…

by Leein3D on Nov 26, 2008 10:23 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Scapegoat

It’s great that Reeves can stay with his man. That’s half the battle. The problem is the other half, and he’s shown little sign of overcoming that.

I have to assume you’re being tongue-in-cheek about Richard Smith. Every bit of criticism heaped on him is completely deserved.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Nov 26, 2008 11:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Let me rephrase...

Smith takes the majority of the blame for the shortcomings of this team, and deservedly so, but I think many people point to him as the sole reason we’re 4-7 and looking forward to the draft…again. While he’s a major, MAJOR factor, we can’t forget all the turnovers, bad clock management, and questionable playcalling.

by Leein3D on Nov 26, 2008 11:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

just add Sage

and SOLE reason becomes incorrect.

Sage and RS. The reasons we’re 4-7.

Please draft some defensive stars for the next DC.

by texanphil on Nov 26, 2008 12:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

re: Richard Smith

If you’re unconvinced about Richard Smith as a problem, go read some of Matt’s truly excellent defensive posts over at DGDB&D. There are fundamental problems with his approach to defense.

by DisplacedTexan on Nov 26, 2008 11:11 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm convinced

And Matt’s breakdowns and ramblings have definitely helped.

by Leein3D on Nov 26, 2008 11:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I, for one, think that Frenchy can become a decent db

His cover skills are good, as noted elsewhere, and he has gotten better at looking for the ball (although not so good at actually finding it, as noted by the catch where he overran the wr, Edwards I think, on a deep ball on Sunday). And, bless his heart, he isn’t afraid to tackle.

Coming from the Cowboys system, where he was asked to play more zone, it would make sense that he has some learning to do. If he’s around next year, I suspect he’ll be an average cb.

But let’s not let the fact that McCain has tried to defend him fool you; he’s been pretty crappy this year.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Nov 26, 2008 11:17 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for typing my opinion...it saves me time

Needless to say, I agree with everything Crusher said. I was hoping Frenchy’s progress would be further along by this point in the season, but he has definitely improved since we first saw him suit up this year.

But then again, I also didn’t think that Amobi Okoye would enter the Witness Protection Program this year.

So you're saying that now I have to think of some witty Sig that will be applicable across all the SBN sites? Go TexanHornStros!

by Shake on Nov 26, 2008 12:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

re: Amobi.

I’m willing to give him a larger cushion that most. He’s young – very young – so I think he’s going to have a bigger emotional/mental hill to climb than the typical rookie. I’m honestly willing to give him 1-2 more seasons before I’m ready to call him a bust. The physical frame is there. Plus, he needs a true, block eating, mountain NT next to him. So he’s probably taking a bigger physical beating than should be expected of him considering his role. I’m not as worried about Amobi.

by DisplacedTexan on Nov 26, 2008 1:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not only that...

But what Mario and company were saying about the Cleveland game leads me to believe that Dick Smith isn’t letting his playmakers make plays. I think Okoye has been asked to “read and react” and tie up blockers instead of getting a jump off the snap and trying to knife into the backfield.

by Leein3D on Nov 26, 2008 2:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the biggest problem I have with "he can stay with his man virtually all the time"

is thats his biggest problem. He is scared of getting burned, so he STARES at the dude, and doesn’t play an effective CB position, he just covers. Like Tim said, its half the battle.

I say good for him if there’s positive press. Pile it on. Negative press doesn’t help the guy, so maybe he reads this stuff and plays worse. Lets try the positive. Like it or not, week 1 2009 season he’s probably the starting nickel CB. So lets make the best of it, and hope for a pro bowl year next season.

I don’t want to hope he does bad, I want to see the guy take his cover skills and start making the plays he should make, and hopefully the announcers never call his name again this season cuz dudes are afraid to throw his way.

Please draft some defensive stars for the next DC.

by texanphil on Nov 26, 2008 11:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, I agree with you

I think your analysis is correct — he’s not used to playing as much man and he’s so focused on coverage that he can’t remember to turn around.

But I think that I can be taught to turn my head to look for a ball, and I’m not much of an athlete any more. What I could never be taught is how to run real fast. That’s something that Frenchy has.

I prescribe an entire offseason trying to cover Andre Johnson. That’ll either fix his weaknesses or drive him crazy and make him quit football. Either way we win.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Nov 26, 2008 1:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I just lost respect for Johnny Mac and the Chron, I could not believe that they ran that "story"

There is simply no logical reason for McClain to write this garbage. It seemed at times that the Chron was a PR firm paid by the Texans, but if they are then Solomon would not have run that piece on the Texans failure to extend Dunta, possibly losing him in free agency. Given that this is not just rah rah journalism, then it is utter nonsense. Has Johnny not been watching the Texans games? Is he so simple that he does not realize what you pointed out regarding our lack of a run defense and clueless Petey on the other side for much of the year skewing the stats in Reeves favor? One of my favorite sports axioms is “Statistics are for losers”. This weak attempt to use stats to validate Reeves value in future roster planning is just that, weak; and flawed.

McClain quoted Rick Smith (not Richard Smith) as saying that Reeves has improved and they expect him to be much better next season. The only way that Reeves should be on the team next season is to restructure his contract, drastically reduce his salary, and demote him to the nickel/dime position. I agree that Frenchy has played better the last two games, but still not up to what shoud be expected from a 5 million dollar a year starting CB. If Smithiak do not realize this, then I have grave doubts about the future of the franchise.

Play Molden and Bennett opposite Dunta for the rest of the season. Put Frenchy out only in either nickel or dime packages. The Fred has shown excellent ball skills at times, like the HUGE INT he made in the red zone at Cleveland. That was the biggest of all the TO’s. We have not seen enough of Molden at CB. He has shown great tackling ability on KO/Punt coverage teams. He needs to cut his teeth, like Fred did at this point last season.

by oiler-texan diehard on Nov 26, 2008 11:21 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Your first mistake was in having respect for the Chron to start

Your second is in saying “stats are for losers”. Statistics are the only unbiased way to look at sports (or anything else for that matter). I was actually shocked and pleasantly surprised to see Johnny Mac try and use statistics. Sadly, statistics in the hands of an idiot merely validate that man’s idiocy.

The conflict here is that McLain is saying that Reeves isn’t that bad, but we all feel that he sucks because he gives up too many big plays (at least one or two a game). Because I don’t have access to STATS, Inc. and Football Outsiders doesn’t have individual defensive stats up to date, I’m just going to use the numbers McLain has in his article.

First off, the stat on “targets” is stupid without context. Not targeting Reeves because you choose to target Petey or run against our crappy run D, is NOT the same as not targeting Reeves because he’s a good corner. Also, and I don’t remember exactly where I read this, unless your name is Nnamdi Asomugha or Champ Bailey, teams don’t really steer away from a particular DB because they’re afraid of him. They just play their offense.

Secondly, McLain tries to use these stats individually as if they aren’t related. What a dumbass. He starts by pointing out those CBs that were targeted more than Reeves and then talks about those who gave up more yards. Hmm… don’t you think you should look at those together?

According to McLain, there are 9 CBs who have been targeted more than Reeves. Yet only four of these have given up more yards. That means the other 5 have been targeted more and given up fewer yards — i.e., clearly they’re better. Those four, Aaron Ross, DeAngelo Hall, Marcus Trufant, and Carlos Rodgers, have given up 8.34, 8.07, 8.11, and 5.74 yards per target respectively compared to 8.51 for Reeves. That means they’ve only given up more yards BECAUSE they’ve been thrown at more.

On the flip side of that list, six DBs have given up more yards but been targeted fewer times than Reeves: Harris, Antonio-Cromartie, Taylor, Barber, Allen, and Henry. Their yards per completion, however, are 14.23, 11.96, 11.72, 14.44, and McLain didn’t have numbers for Allen or Henry. Reeves, on the other hand has given up 16.14 yards per completion. That means that these guys are giving up a few more completions, but they’re less damaging.

We could, and at some point perhaps should, go on and on, but the point is that you can’t use any individual statistic in a vacuum. McLain does this, but again, he’s an idiot. The statistics are valid and what they’re really doing is confirming our suspicion that Reeves hasn’t been playing well.

by Vega on Nov 26, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly.

The other thing is that, at best, these stats show Frenchy to be an average cb (that is, if you put a rosy spin on things). Is he worth this kind of money if he’s at best average?

Having said that, I repeat my contention that he does have the potential to become a good corner, if he chooses to utilize it.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Nov 26, 2008 1:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't believe myself

But I’m quasi-defending Frenchy. He signed a 5-year, $20 million dollar deal, correct? And I believe only $8 million of that is guaranteed. I also believe that half of that ($4 million) was given to him in the form of a signing bonus. (Someone feel free to correct me on this with a link, as I’m just going off my memory.)

Now, $4 million a year maximum for an average CB (rosy spin or not) is a tad overpriced, sure. But for a team that couldn’t afford a big name CB, and realistically couldn’t attract one anyway, that’s about right. It sucks for us, but it’s par for the course.

Now, considering that Reeves is still young, has some upside, possesses fantastic speed, and is learning a new system (granted, the system sucks, it should’ve suited him better in the first place, and will surely be replaced next season), I think the deal isn’t as bad as we make it out to be. Look at how much we gave to Weaver and Greenwood, and the Reeves deal doesn’t seem as bad. Now, granted, that’s like saying sleeping with Britney Spears (crazy Britney, not “Hit Me One More Time” Britney) isn’t that bad because you had been sleeping with Rosie O’Donnell and Janet Reno.

With all that being said, I would’ve rather us gotten Foxworth or Gay. Though the thought of a starting CB tandem of “Gay and Faggins”…yeah, no punch line needed.

by Leein3D on Nov 26, 2008 2:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's generally accepted

That it’s ok to sleep with ugly or crazy women if they’re famous.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Nov 26, 2008 4:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

re: tandem of "Gay and Faggins"

would surely keep the opposing QB’s heads out of our defensive backfield. What straight guy wants to look at that?

So we could put 9 guys in the box on every play.

Please draft some defensive stars for the next DC.

by texanphil on Nov 26, 2008 6:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well...

Peyton Manning, Brady Quinn, and Jeff Garcia would still be peeking.

Yay, sports.

by MDC on Nov 27, 2008 11:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Vega - You may have misinterpreted my characterization of statistics as being only for losers

Stats are numbers, and numbers are great because as you correctly pointed out, they have no opinion. Thus they are the only way to try to form an analytical comparison of players or teams on paper. That is miles away from the intended meaning. It is a different way of emphasizing the words of the immortal Vince Lombardi, “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.”. Losers may be able to gain some solace by crunching their numbers and drawing the conclusion that they are not that bad. Winners on the other hand do not need any math skills. How many hundreds of times have you heard a postgame interview where the player being interviewed (winner or loser) said that his numbers did not matter, that the only importance was team success (or lack thereof).

Based upon his performance thus far with the Texans, Jacques Reeves is not a good cornerback. Any attempt to analyze stats to undo this indisputable fact is a waste of time. Johnny Mac and the Chron should know this by now. The longer the Texans coaching staff plays Reeves over Molden and Bennett is a waste of an opportunity to evaluate what direction we need to go to upgrade our secondary. Is the bigger need at CB or S? I think S, but that is based on the belief that Bennett and Molden will make more plays than JR. I’ve seen enough of Reeves not turning his head or raising his arms. He is a nickel player at best. We have enough time left to get a good evaluation of both Molden & Bennett if Smith will just put them on the field.

Happy Thanksgiving Vega and GO TEXANS!!!!!!!!!!!

by oiler-texan diehard on Nov 29, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No hard feelings

I did misinterpret your comments but that’s cool. It bugs me when people badmouth stats because “I knows what I sees and I don’t care what the numbers says.” I know that’s not what you were getting at though.

The numbers do support that fact that Reeves has not met expectations, but McClain just puts up a couple of numbers that he found and didn’t bother to think about their meaning.

by Vega on Dec 1, 2008 8:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

reeves

TERRIBLE!!! For what we signed him he is a below average…as someone else mentioned all he needs to do is raise his hands and turn around…eh is young so he oculd still be something good…

also another person said that bennett and molden should be starting…that is an absolute fact…those 2 should be the starting CB’s next year (assuming dunta either leaves or moves to safety(which he should bcz. of this injury that slows him down, he fits better at safety for us) and also assuming we dont sign or ddraft another CB (which we will be doing)…

those 2 (bennet, and Molden) are our future back there…let them get some PT…they deserve it…Petey Faggins also SUCKS and should not be ina HOU uni.

by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Nov 28, 2008 10:55 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

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