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Three And Out: Useless Predictions For Sunday's Game

I had every intention of traveling up to the Frozen Tundra to watch your Houston Texans on Sunday. Lambeau Field is the NFL's preeminent cathedral, and I couldn't imagine a cooler feeling than braving the elements and watching the Texans play a potentially meaningful December game against the Pack. I was sold the second the schedule came out, weather be damned.

Then Matt Schaub got hurt, and there was talk of him missing the rest of the 2008 season. I was suddenly faced with the very real possibility that Sage Rosenfels would be under center in Green Bay. Memories of the Rosencopter, as well as the two (2) murderous turnovers after the 'Copter, were still fresh in my mind. Wouldn't it make sense to sock away the money that trip would cost? At that moment, I made an executive decision not to go to Lambeau. The idea of watching Sage throw four (4) picks while I lost feeling in my appendages was too much for me to bear. I cracked.

So what happens? Schaub gets cleared to return and is scheduled to start on Sunday. Now I feel like an idiot (moreso than usual, anyway). Instead of watching The Schaub's glorious return to the starting lineup in person in the most famous stadium in the NFL, I'll be watching it on TV and mumbling beer-breathed curses to myself. Neat. Without further ado, three (3) things sure to happen during the three (3) hours I'm beating myself up on Sunday:

1. Schaub's going to look like a guy who hasn't played in a month. Additionally, we're talking Green Bay in December, which isn't exactly Houston in December. Succeeding in that situation is tough for a healthy QB, much less a returning QB who's been plagued by bad decisions in the red zone all season. Schaub is going to make a few really nice throws (I'll say one big one to Andre Johnson and several shorter ones to Owen Daniels), but he's also going to turn the ball over twice.

2. Due to the conditions, Steve Slaton needs to have a huge game for the Texans to have a shot. The superb news in that regard? The Packers are awful against the run, giving up 141.7 yards per game on the ground. It'll be interesting to see how Slaton responds on short rest, but I'm predicting a monstrous game from the RB (say, 109 yards rushing, 31 yards receiving, and a TD) who should be getting serious consideration for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

3. Will Richard Smith continue to employ an aggressive scheme in an attempt to frustrate Aaron Rodgers? Or will we see him revert to the vanilla, we-won't-blitz-so-you-can-pick-us-apart scheme we've come to know so well and despise so much? I think we'll see more blitzing than we saw early in the season, but we won't see as much as what we saw against Cleveland. I hope you've enjoyed winning the turnover battle the last two (2) weeks, because I believe that streak comes to an abrupt end on Sunday.

PUT YOUR NAME ON IT: Any objective fan looking at this game would pick Green Bay, and they'd pick 'em large. Although I'm about as far from objective as it gets when it comes to your Houston Texans, I can't disagree with that rationale. The combination of the elements, a short week after MNF, a rusty QB, and Richard Smith will be too much to overcome. Texans 20, Packers 30.

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I'm not a Texans fan

but I wanted to announce that today was the day where I learned that Rick Smith and Richard Smith were different people.

by math_geek on Dec 5, 2008 3:23 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

That's a VERY important distinction

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Dec 5, 2008 3:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Here's a prediction for you

Shaun King is the newest idiot to declare (Today no less, and on ESPN, unsurprisingly) that Mario Williams was the wrong pick, and Vince Young was the right one.

I predict he will die in a fire.

by b0ng on Dec 5, 2008 5:54 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Really?

How could anyone – let alone someone who is paid to watch and talk about football – say that now? Young may or may not develop into a decent QB. Williams is already one the league’s best pass-rushers. I figured that this was understood by now. Ugh. I’m so sick of these dumbasses.

By the way, everyone remember to vote for Mario and Co. for the Pro Bowl. It’s still an outrage that Young made it in 2006.

by Only_A_Lad on Dec 5, 2008 6:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's fucking ridiculous

Reminds me of the commentator on this absolutely insane blog entry by Dickie Justice who said:

At this moment, Vince is outplaying mario without even being on the field.

As is David Carr.

Posted by: joasis at December 1, 2008 10:28 AM

Sometimes I wonder how a person can be so stupid and still be alive. And here I’m referring equally to the commentator, Dickie Justice and anyone who thinks that Mario Williams was not the best choice in that draft.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Dec 5, 2008 7:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Dickie Justice

Great name for a huge douche canoe. The guy STILL doesn’t like Mario. I wish he would stop writing about the Texans altogether.

by Leein3D on Dec 5, 2008 7:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He just undermines his own standing

with anyone who can think. That’s why the commentary on his blog lends itself to the impression that it was written by a bunch of short busers. Ditto for McClain.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Dec 5, 2008 7:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

By short busers

You mean most Cowboy fans that live in Houston right?

by b0ng on Dec 5, 2008 7:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That and

the occasional Houstonian (usually a UT grad) who roots for the Tits because of VY.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Dec 5, 2008 8:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Given The Date Of That Comment

I have to think the commenter is mocking Justice for his VY love.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Dec 5, 2008 11:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Pancakes?

He’s still loads better than Justice.

by Leein3D on Dec 5, 2008 7:08 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Not setting the bar at stratospheric heights exactly

with that one. But I agree.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Dec 5, 2008 7:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

This wasn't mentioned

I think that Barber should start instead of Harrison. Am I wrong?

by TexanFanFromTheStart on Dec 5, 2008 10:04 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

second guessing starters

is easy when people play badly, and I am guilty as anyone.

But I’ve seen too many examples this year where Kubes & co have started the right people in the end, and we don’t see practice, so I’ll give em the benefit of the doubt.

I would like to see what Barber can do, however, which goes for a few more guys after we’re mathematically eliminated.

Please draft some defensive stars for the next DC.

by texanphil on Dec 6, 2008 8:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Who is Justice?

Never heard of him. I think whoever this guys is probably enjoys people disliking him, and probably writes and says stuff on some TV show nobody watches just to get people to scream obscenities at what he says.

So the best way to let him die is not talk about him. Or not know who he is… like me.

Please draft some defensive stars for the next DC.

by texanphil on Dec 6, 2008 8:42 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Dickie and Pancakes get paid to write about sports. We do it because we love it. Enough about them...

How about redirecting the discussion to the Texans game?

Consensus may be the Pack winning, but in them I see a team than can easily be beaten. They have lost 4 of 5, their run defense is among the worst in the league, and if we can continue taking care of the rock as we have in our last 2 games, then I see no reason why we get a W. Texans 23 – 20. Like Tim, I am hardly unbiased when it comes to the Texans, and even if a few late season victories screw up our draft position, I am still all for it. I am counting on Mr McNair not being blinded by some late season success and forgetting that he needs to do some postseason housecleaning, starting with the defensive play calling. If that means we need a new DC, or simply telling Kubiak that defense is not his area of expertise, do what must be done. Our D was flat for the 1st ten games. We should have been much better.

Even if we don’t win, this is a must see game just because of the setting. What football fan does not love watching a cold weather game (on TV I mean), and at historic Lambeau field it simply does not get much better than that. The forecast is for clear cold weather, but I would much prefer to watch a nice snow game, those are so much fun.

GO TEXANS, show the Pack we are a decent team!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by oiler-texan diehard on Dec 6, 2008 2:30 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think the Packers are better than their record

That goes against the wise Parcells-ism that “you are your record”, but what I’m getting at is that we’d be underestimating the Packers by just looking at their record. I think Tim is just about right with his prediction.

by socctty on Dec 6, 2008 3:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Packers may be "better than their record", but the same could be said of the Texans, both teams are 5 - 7.

GB’s opponents are a combined 84-60, to the Texans 71-72-1. GB owns 2 wins over teams with (current) winning records;Minnesota (game 1) and Indy (game 7). We beat Mami for our only win against a winning team thus far. Packs have had several close losses, by 1, 3, 3 & 4 points one of those to Tenn in OT. Texans have had several close losses by 3, 4, 6 & 7 points, one of those being the impossible meltdown vs the Colts, and another in OT vs the Jags. GB point differential 334 for, 295 against is much better than ours 282 for, 310 against.

Despite our poor track record on the road I just do not see tham as being 10 points better than us. Tim does, however, have a better track record of predicting games than do I. Standings in the Yahoo Office Pool:
http://www.funofficepools.com/nflbon08/standings.php?ps_key=8bca6a7781a&pool_key=d92db6494b5

by oiler-texan diehard on Dec 6, 2008 6:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh?

“or simply telling Kubiak that defense is not his area of expertise”
Did I miss something? Has Kubiak been calling the defenses (or lack thereof)? I would think that Kubes knows what his expertise is by now.

Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.

by beefy on Dec 6, 2008 7:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wish my memory was better, so this may sound a little vague

but sometime during our 2nd losing streak (to Minn, Balt & Indy) it was suggested at BRB that Richard Smith did not have the final say on gameday defensive play calling, that the calls had to go through Kubiak. Can’t remember who posted that, or exactly when. Do not know how accurate that statement was, but IF it was, I was suggesting that Kubiak be told to focus on offense only. I think we would all agree that he has room for improvement in several areas there, specifically use of challenges, timeouts and clock management. In the recent loss at Indy I think he froze like a deer in the headlights on our last posession, not telling Sage to spike the ball after the completion to David Anderson at the 48 yard line with about 38 seconds left. We had no timeouts remaining, partly due to Kubes earlier mistakes, and instead of spiking the ball, killing the clock, and regrouping, Sage uses 20 seconds of clock calling signals to a play that results in the game ending INT. With Kubes having yet to master the nuances of offensive game management, he has no business trying to manage the defense as well. That was what I meant to say. If, however, that is pure BS and Richard Smith alone had the autonomy to entirely supervise the play calling, then all the more reason that he should be let go. Our defensive talent may not be superior, but it seemed that he was afraid to change both personnel and schemes. If it took him realizing that his job is at stake to call a few blitzes, then I don’t think he is the right guy at the helm.

by oiler-texan diehard on Dec 6, 2008 11:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Slaton won't get ORoY

Matt Ryan is doing too well. QBs start off with an edge in RoY voting. Slaton will get a few votes though.

by socctty on Dec 6, 2008 3:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Matt Ryan is doing well, but has been helped dramatically by the Falcon's last place schedule

Atlanta has one win over a team with a winning record, same as (you guessed it) the Texans. Combined record of Atl’s opponents (including the Thurday game) is 67-78-1. Texans opponents = 71-72-1. Ryan’s passer rating is 8th in the league. Slaton is 10th in rushing yards/game, and among the top 35 rushers trails only the Giants Brandon Jacobs at 5.0 yards/attempt. His 8 rushing TD’s also rank 10th in the league. Throw in his 250 yds receiving yards and he is having a heck of a season. He is, however, not the rookie RB putting up the best numbers. That would be Matt Forte (Tulane & Chicago Bears) who has 1,012 yds rusing, 5th best in the NFL, and 4.1 yds/attempt. He is being hyped at nfl.com, and rightfully so because he is 4 yds away from breaking the immortal Gale Sayer’s Bears rookie record for total yds from scrimmage.

Ryan is doing well, but Forte is going to attract a lot of votes as well. The voters will likely not take into account strength of schedule, and will just look at Atlanta;s record which right now is an impressive 8-4. Slaton will probably do no better than 3rd, but all Texans fans know what a great year he is having.

by oiler-texan diehard on Dec 6, 2008 6:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Welllllll. . .

First off, everybody knows rookie QB’s are always going to have an edge in ROY awards (See Young, Vince ’06). Add in the fact that Chris Johnson is on a team that looks to be superbowl bound is probably going to hurt Forte a lot.

by b0ng on Dec 6, 2008 8:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Good call - I failed to notice that CJ is right behind Forte in yardage with better yds/carry

and playing for a team with a superior W-L record is always an advantage. Looks like Slaton will be 4th at best.

by oiler-texan diehard on Dec 6, 2008 11:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OROY

Agree with all of you…Slaton won’t win Offensive Rookie of the Year. My money’s on Matt Ryan. I do think, however, that Slaton deserves to be in the conversation for the award.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Dec 7, 2008 8:46 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Tim--your outcome and final score is way too wrong.

Slaton is going to have a big game…and Schaub is going to come in and not make many mistakes. This is the NFL and your team is part of it. The ‘frozen tundra’ is a mythe—hasn’t happened since the minor ‘ice age’ that we had in the late 50’s early 60’s. You have a much better team than the Packers…………….and you will win this game.

The best defense is a good defense!
And last week's young players. Yes!

by Mike Clark on Dec 6, 2008 7:25 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I like your style, Mike

…but we’re basically a bunch of beaten dogs around here. So none of us will be convinced we’ve won until several days after the fact. And many of our victories this year seem more like losses to us.

But I hope you’re right. My own feeling is that if the Texans can get up by something like ten points early and then just stuff the ball under Slaton’s jersey for the rest of the game, they will be able to win.

But that’s going to require the defense to stop GB a few times, and the only thing they’ve been able to stop consistently is my heart.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Dec 7, 2008 6:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Optimism Abounds!

Mike, I truly appreciate your confidence. As TGC noted, we’re flinching around these parts, especially when it comes to road games. I hope I’m wrong. Truly I do. I just think that there’s too many things going against us for the Texans to win. While I think weather will be a factor, I’d probably pick us to lose on the road this week against nearly any team regardless of the weather. Schaub’s going to be rusty; we’re playing on short rest after the first MNF game in franchise history; and Richard Smith is still in charge of the defense. Those three factors alone are enough to make me nauseous.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Dec 7, 2008 8:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, lets see how you did.

1. Good, for the most part, except if thats how Schaub normally looks after missing a month, we’re in good shape, cuz he’s injury prone. Only one turnover for the Schaub, but enough from everyone else to give you that one.

2. Right on with Slaton, but that one was too easy. He played even better than his stats. And his stats were excellent.

3. I’m just now hearing (reading) about the rumor of Kubiak filtering defensive play calls. I think this needs a post, and some fact checking. This is huge if true, and it kinda makes sense, given Kubiak’s conservative nature. I can actually see him calling off the dogs. There is still ample evidence to fire RS, but I don’t see Kubiak throwing RS under the bus if he was causing the dismal defensive play. Good call on the turnover battle.

Please draft some defensive stars for the next DC.

by texanphil on Dec 7, 2008 9:20 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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