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Reason to Believe

One reason that the NFL is constantly praised by the resident braintrusts at major media outlets nationwide is the league's enviable parity thanks to the salary cap, revenue sharing and other competitive checks and balances which afford teams the ability to build into a championship-level team quickly.  For example, the past six Super Bowls have involved ten different teams (with only the Patriots making multiple appearances - three).  [Note: if this trend continues, the Texans are virtually assured of a Super Bowl appearance no later than 2020.]  I did not really have a rooting interest in last night's game; my respect and admiration for the historical opportunity possessed by the Patriots was entirely offset by my intense hatred of all things Boston A.B. ("After Bird"), and my general attraction to the underdog failed to materialize thanks to my utter distaste for spoiled brats who turn the NFL Draft into their own birthday party where they sit in the corner and cry until they get to open all their presents, while the rest of the guests and invitees are left to watch the ice cream melt.  As such, I spent most of the game trying to rationalize why the Texans could be next year's Super Bowl Champ.  

  1. The 2006 New York Giants finished 8-8.  The 2007 Houston Texans finished 8-8.  
  2. Houston has better QB play and passing game.  Rarely do I advocate the use of QB rating as an evaluation tool for QB play, but as a general tool, it's not as misleading as, say, a pitcher's wins in baseball.  2007 team QB rating: Houston 86.1, New York Giants 73.0.  Interceptions (21 v. 20) and TDs (24 v. 23) are virtually identical as well.  Houston had a distinct advantage in yards per attempt (7.42 to 6.21) and took less sacks (22 to 28).  Don't forget that it was just earlier this fall that fans and media were calling for the demotion of Prince Eli.  Clearly, he improved his play considerably, but the Texans got equal or better production from Rosenschaub, and that with an injured Andre Johnson and impotent (at times) running game.  
  3. Improving defense.  The Texans of the last quarter of 2007 were a totally different beast defensively, as either Richard Smith was removed of his play-calling duties or grew a pair of gonads in a miraculous (but timely) anatomical show of strength.  Add to that equation the fact that nearly 70% of the Texans' 31 sacks in 2007 came from the Terrific Trio of DeMeco, Mario and Amobi, each of whom practically has a limitless ceiling for his talents, oozes coachability and professionalism and is seemingly lacking only the benefits of playing experience.  If these three men progress at anywhere near the rate that they have thus far, the Texans will have one of the most feared defensive fronts in the game.  Teams that can rightfully claim that moniker are not long for mediocrity.
  4. Easily fixable holes.  Tiki Barber was a great player; now he's fashioning wreaths with Ann Curry and Martha Stewart.  Enter Brandon Jacobs, who's unquestionably a beast, and Ahmad Bradshaw.  There is not a prerequisite to being a Super Bowl Champion that requires you to possess a Hall of Fame running back.  No one, aside from possibly Mike Shanahan, seems to understand that better than Gary Kubiak does.  The running game was effective in 2007 with a very shaky platoon of unproven rookies and achy, plodding veterans.  With an effective passing game and productive offensive line, one does not have to draft Adrian Peterson or Darren McFadden to get to the Super Bowl.  
Feel free to tell me why I am a moron or why I am the hidden love child of Scott Pioli and Ron Jaworski.  I say that the only things standing in between Houston and SB XLIII are (a) one shut-down corner, (b) one slightly amped-up running game and (c) experience for the young'uns.  

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One Difference
  1. I think the 8-8 Giants underperformed. Tiki the crybaby was more likely the problem than the coach. I think the Texans are 2 good drafts (plus resigning Demps) away from playing near the level of the Giants. Houston still has weaknesses in the starting lineup. The Giants seem solid everywhere. Think of it this way: How many Texans would start for the Giants? Maybe 3 to 5?
  2. Eli is probably a little better.
  3. I think the reason the defense looked so bad during the middle of the season was turmoil due to injuries. Once they found the right guys to plug into the secondary, I think everything gelled.
  4. I think our RBs are a notch below where the Giants were at the start of the season.

by kozanack on Feb 4, 2008 11:05 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Re: How many would start
Ryans, Greenwood, Williams, Dunta, Andre, Winston...yeah, I think you are right.  And if you discount Dunta because he's hurt, you nailed it.

by MDC on Feb 5, 2008 6:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

RB
Our top RB last year was waived by the Giants, then waived by the Broncos, before he ended up here.  Not to say that Dayne didn't play a valuable part, which he did. Just to point out that we have ways to go.

by kozanack on Feb 5, 2008 9:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: RB
Brandon Jacobs was an unheralded 4th round pick.  Ahmad Bradshaw was an undrafted free agent.  Significant upgrades can be made, even at high-profile positions like RB, at a cost substantially less than a 1st round pick or the $ that an LT or LJ type back would cost in free agency.

by Scott on Feb 5, 2008 10:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: How many would start
I'd add Leach, Daniels and Kris Brown, as well as Andre Davis as a #3 WR over Steve Smith.  It's close to 50:50, which means that half of the Giants' starters wouldn't start for the Texans.  The difference is certainly there, but it's one that can be fixed in one offseason, without any doubt in my mind.

by Scott on Feb 5, 2008 10:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Leach, Maybe
Shockey > Daniels (Shockey is a better all around player, but Shockey is supposedly roundly disliked, so you might not want him for that reason)

Don't forget, Kris Brown had a couple of shaky season prior to this one. But all-in-all Brown = Tynes. But Tynes is younger.

Neither Andre Davis or Steve Smith is a starter. I would guess that the Texans would take Steve Smith over Andre Davis any day. Andre Davis might contribute more now, but Steve Smith is probably got a much higher ceiling.

by kozanack on Feb 6, 2008 11:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Why Not Us?
I like the way you think Scott. NY proved that all you need is a chance. We just have to get into the playoffs and then anything can happen. All that maters is how you play in December and January. As one analyst put it, if you only looked at the games played by the NY and NE in Dec and Jan you would not be surprised that the Giants won the game.

by bullpen116 on Feb 5, 2008 11:35 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Because John McClain says so?
His column today: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/mcclain/5517191.html

Pretty much says we shouldn't bother to be hopeful. I'm not usually as negative about him as I probably should be because we went to the same college and it's hard to find a Bear fan since we're the long suffering kind, but this is just being a joykill. How does this sell papers...?

by Jimbo on Feb 6, 2008 11:58 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: McClain
I read that this morning and just shook my head.  Talk about throwing cold water on some good vibes...
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Feb 6, 2008 1:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty Convinced
I'm convinced now, more than ever that McClain reads these here blogs to find the pulse of real Texans fans -- then does everything in his power to stomp the life out of it.  What a prick.  
Shakin 'em off one win at a time... In Schaub we trust.

by SOLIS on Feb 6, 2008 2:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: McClain
There's not one credible on-field argument raised by the General.  I'm not quite writing off the Texans' 2008 chances based on record trends of other teams in years past.

by Scott on Feb 6, 2008 2:11 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

He's Not Writing Us Off
I think he's just trying to be realistic. Keep in mind that we are only entering our third year post Casserly/Capers.  It's not a negative article. I think that Houston fans often start off with overly optimistic expectations, then crash when things take a little longer than expected.  

I'm guessing 9 to 11 wins next year is credible.

by kozanack on Feb 6, 2008 11:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

re:
"...start off with overly optimistic expectations..."

Umm, what good fan doesn't??

We can be critical of the draft picks, but in the end we always support the new Texan.

by Shake on Feb 7, 2008 7:14 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Faith
Yeah, but I think the point is that he chose a very piss-poor tone for his piece.  The message he sent isn't necessarily in what he said, but how he said it.  He may have thrown Texans' fans a bone by mentioning that the playoffs were in reach, but instead of choosing the possibility of the playoffs as a focal point, he chose to tell us that we shouldn't get our hopes up.  Fuck him.  

Look, the good ones are the ones that keep the faith... because ultimately, that's what fuels a fan-base, the faith. How is a city, much less a state, full of half hearted fans supposed to support a team with a couple of down-trodden beat writers who shit on them every chance they get?  Its inexcusable.

Shakin 'em off one win at a time... In Schaub we trust.

by SOLIS on Feb 7, 2008 10:40 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe Some Of The Other Chronicle Guys
I don't think he intended to have that kind of tone. In general, McClain generally keeps it professional. I get the idea he's not an X's and O's kind of guy. Instead, he gets a lot of material by schmoozing players, coaches, and owners. So he doesn't step on a lot of toes. About the only time he takes a shot at somebody is when they cross the line somehow. That said, you're not going to learn much about the finer points of the game by reading his column.

Now, you could definitely beef about guys like Richie Justice, and Rich Lords. Those two guys definitely deserve your hostility.

by kozanack on Feb 7, 2008 11:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Justice
needs to be lit on fire.

by MDC on Feb 8, 2008 11:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sad Trumpet
Don't get me wrong, I don't dislike McClain exclusively.  I'm an equal opportunity hater. He isn't as egregious as Solomon, but he has gotten under my skin before.

In other words, I'm tired of John McClain being the Debbie Downer of the Houston sports beat.   e.g., "Its great DeMeco made the Pro Bowl -- Too bad he got burned on that TD to Chris Cooley" [sad trumpet] whaa-waaaaah.

You've all overbid -- No soup for you -- Don't pass go -- Don't collect your two hundred dollars.  Who wants to feel like that?

Shakin 'em off one win at a time... In Schaub we trust.

by SOLIS on Feb 11, 2008 11:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

+1
awarded for the Soup Nazi reference
We can be critical of the draft picks, but in the end we always support the new Texan.

by Shake on Feb 12, 2008 7:49 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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