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Jacoby Jones: Ready To Make The Leap?

I've been meaning to post about this for a few weeks now. Steve Campbell wrote an article in late May that put into print the gist of what I'm wondering about The Pride of Lane College. Namely, are we going to see production in 2008 similar to that which made him the darling of the 2007 preseason? Or am I going to be uttering something akin to what I said after the second game against Indy more often than not:

No more pressure, Jacoby. We're done mentioning you until you show a glimpse of your preseason production.
Admittedly looking at the situation through battle red colored glasses, I'm tremendously encouraged by the following snippets from Campbell's article (then again, what would you expect him to say?):

"I'm getting back to that old feeling," Jones said. "I'm getting my old swagger back."
"Jacoby's made a huge step," Schaub said. "He's more mature. Last year, his head was spinning a little bit, like any rookie's would be, but he's really on top of his stuff, and he's catching the ball. He's confident in what he's doing and having a great camp."
While I can't condone every bit of Jacoby's off-the-field judgment this offseason, it's a relief to read that he's owning his conduct:

"It was a simple mistake," Jones said. "I made a mistake; I learned from it. I messed up once in the past, and I'm going to do better in the future. With everything. Learning the playbook. Being a better human being. Period."
And most importantly, this:

"I'm so ready for camp to be here," Jones said. "The faster camp goes, the faster the games will be here.

"I am ready to play. I'm really hungry now."

Kool-Aid aside, what's a reasonable expectation for Jacoby Jones in 2008? Fact is, he's going to have to show the coaches that he's progressed to a point that merits time at WR instead of just in the return game. And that, my friends, is going to be tough. WR is one of the, if not the, deepest depth chart(s) on the squad. Of course, it's not completely illogical to think that the talent Jacoby flashed throughout the last preseason, as well as a handful of moments during the 2007 regular season, may well lead to Kubes finding ways to get him on the field (e.g., four (4) wideout sets).


But first things first: Jacoby is going to have to earn that time, and another spectacular preseason likely won't be enough to cut it this year. So I ask you, BRB...what do you think we're going to get out of Jacoby Jones in 2008?

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Wild guess

25 catches, 360 yards, 4 TDs, plus 2 PR TDs. I like the odds of him really blossoming as the season develops and him getting more reps down the stretch.

Yay, sports.

by MDC on Jul 2, 2008 9:38 PM CDT   0 recs

360 yards?!

I’ll take that bet on the over. 360+ easy.

by 1Texan on Jul 2, 2008 11:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

4th receiver

he’ll be the 4th receiver though (if everyone’s healthy). They didn’t give Davis that nice contract to be the 4th guy and Kube’s loves Walters. JJ is going to have to play himself onto the field. I don’t think 360+ will be easy for him. Still I hope he does get there!

-poster formerly known as tyler

by bullpen116 on Jul 3, 2008 12:40 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Stretch till the tears begin to form.

A hamstring strain and a 5 gallon bucket of icy hot. Seriously though, you can’t make any educated guess as to his production without knowing what position he’ll play and how much time he gets. It’s my understand so far he backs up Kevin Walter at wr2. So to get much better numbers than last year he would have to essentially replace KW as the starter, or the coaches would have to decide the wr2 position now has 2 # 1’s and keep both Walter and Jones rested. I’ve always liked some 4 wideout sets for the Texans because they are deep at receiver and the possibility of getting both Johnson and Davis or better still Johnson Davis and Jones (been in a car wreck?) on the field at the same time is intriguing.

I don’t think Kevin Walter is a great threat to take it to the house from the 50, so should Jacoby Jones demonstrate that he won’t shy away from making that tough catch over the middle after getting rocked by the strong safety and gets the starting role, then he might get better than KW’s numbers last year. Walter got 65 receptions,800 yards, and 4 TD’s. I guess that’s about what you would expect from wr2. Combining both Marvin Harrison’s and Anthony Gonzalez’s numbers last year the Colts got 57 receptions, 823 yards, and 4 TD’s. Looking at it that way it looks pretty good for the Texans. While KW’s yards per catch isn’t quite as good, he had 0 fumbles, so he was not a contributor to the turnover problem. I think for that reason KW retains his starters role, and at best Jacoby Jones gets to split time with Kevin Walter, other than the possibility of special formations. Then JJ will get at best between 350, 450 yards receiving, and 1 to 2 TD’s. One thing that does stand out about Jacoby Jones’ numbers from last year, he got 15 receptions but 9 of those were for first downs. I suppose you could compare Kevin Walter’s YAC stat with Jacoby Jones’ YAC stat, but with so few receptions for Jones, that would not be statistically relevant. As an example, lets say a guy catches the ball once all year on the 15 yard line while the defense run blitzes because it’s 3rd and 1, and he runs 85 yards for a TD his YAC average is 85 yards/reception. So you can’t compare 15 receptions with 65 receptions.

So, if he stays healthy, and he plays the same role as last year, JJ will get about 15 to 20 catches, ~ 200 yards, possibly a TD or 2, and maybe a couple of punt returns for TD’s. If he gets to split time with KW, then he about the numbers previously listed, but if he puts on an acrobatic show during training camp and gets to start, which has to be why they drafted him to begin with, then there’s know way to really know, and this is a bit premature.

2 more things stand out about last year, Owen Daniels had 4 fumbles, and Andre Johnson didn’t get called for holding one single time, so he never cost the team a first down, or a TD on a running play.

AH, Texas and sports, better than fried coke.

by Tomriffic on Jul 3, 2008 6:30 AM CDT   0 recs

Re: Stretch

Those are some great thoughts and stats, Tom. It’s really enlightening to read what the Colts, who have one of the most explosive offenses in the league, get out of their No. 2 WR combo (and I’ll be interested to see if that’s what Marvin Harrison has become). And you hinted at this—Andre Johnson doesn’t get nearly the kudos he should for the contributions that don’t include hauling in long TD passes.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Jul 3, 2008 8:51 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Thing is that year before last i remember a number of plays where Andre Johnson did hold on running plays where not only did we get a first down but we got a touchdown and I saw that from watching the game we would have picked up a first down anyway and I’m like there’s now reason for a wide receiver to hold on a running play because if we at least get a first down we get 3 more plays. Anyway long story short I was looking for that all last year and it never happened. Course he didn’t play in all 16 games, but he seems to have gotten enough opportunity, that it looks like a thing he fixed.

Here’s a real eye opener though. The patriot’s, and it’s appropriate for the 4’th, used a combination of Wes Welker, and Jabar Gaffney at wr2, who combined for 148 receptions, 1624 yards, and 13 TD’s. Of course, they were playing across from Randy Moss, so looking at it that way, that’s the kind of production the Texans might be able to get from wideout 2 if Andre Johnson stays healthy for a year, the offense doesn’t cough up the ball, and the defense improves into the top 10 to 20 bracket, and Jacoby Jones proves he can be a starter. So that’s what about 4 ifs to get past to figure out what someone will be capable of in 2 months. If 1 is luck, if 2 is 11 people concentrating on every play, if 3 is coaching and personnel choices and improvement, and if 4 is one man’s determination and coaching. That’s a lot of chaos. So if Andre Johnson stays healthy most of the year, and the running game takes off as we want, then our wr2 numbers might actually drop some, but the yards/catch might go up as well as TD’s. I mean your not going to throw as much when you’re running for TD’s, so it’s pretty much a set of probabilistic results with spreads about norms, depending on probabilistic event’s with spread’s about other norm’s, for example, it’s pretty normal for Andre Johnson to get hurt and mis at least a game or 2, but with a more effective running game, how much will that affect output at wr2.

Anyway, and it’s obvious I have a little spare time on my hands, I don’t think we need to turn football into quantum chromodynamics, it’s pretty much 11 men trying to beat the crap out of each other for 60 minutes, so you can assume the best, and shave 25 to 30 % off the New England numbers for wr2, but keep in mind the Patriots didn’t really run the ball, or you can assume things are better than last year and add 10 to 20 % to out wr2 numbers or you can assume the running game is phenomenal, and shave 10 to 15 % off all wideout numbers. If you really want to have fun you can go to the lowmart, by 4 dice, roll em all day but you have to have dice where the outcome of 1, 2 or 3, depend on the outcome of the other 3, and before everyone starts to giggle I’ve played D&D exactly once in my life. Thought it was dumb. Ah screw the previews.

AH, Texas and sports, better than fried coke.

by Tomriffic on Jul 3, 2008 2:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Jacoby Jones

Last preseason and early in the year, Jacoby looked like a big time playmaker. After he was hurt in the Indy game he seemed tentative when he returned. Almost like he was afraid of being hit. He seemed to relax a little late in the season. I hope he comes back this year and shows us some of the flash he is capable of producing. The talent seems to definitely be there. I expect some big things from JJ this year. If he [plays to his potential it will be hard to justify keeping him on the bench.

by Dancerdog on Jul 3, 2008 7:46 AM CDT   0 recs

Re: Jacoby

Agreed wholeheartedly, DD. Talent is there; it’s simply a question of Jacoby capturing the preseason magic and making it count from September on. I think he’s completely capable of forcing his way onto the field, but it’s going to be a lot tougher to do that at WR than it would be at, say, CB.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Jul 3, 2008 8:53 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Situational use at best?

As noted by others above, I see Jacoby being used situationally (i.e. 4-wr sets, giving apostrophe a breather). Walter is our possession receiver Davis is our deep threat, and Johnson is, well, the most underrated wr out there. That doesn’t leave Jones much room to play. I think he’ll be groomed for another year and then, perhaps Walter will go and Jacoby can step up. We don’t really need three deep threats because neither Schaub nor Rosie have the arm to air the ball out that much. If Jacoby can learn how to be a possession-type receiver a-la Walter and combine it with his playmaking ability, he’ll be another Andre Johnson. That would be great.

The other way he gets on the field is, of course, when one of our other receivers goes down with an injury. Maybe if that happens he’ll make the most of his chance and keep one of them on the bench. But other than that, I think he’s still a year away from making an impact.

by tehGrindCrusher on Jul 3, 2008 3:08 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed that JJ is the 4th man

But what a nice corps of WR’s that makes. Throw in Daniels and look what we have. If the running game can just be average, our passing game is primed. If the running game excels like Kubiak would like, then look out, the Texans will have arrived. JJ has the size and speed to be that special player we all saw in the preseason last year. KW is a great possesion guy and Apostrophe is a super deep threat, but JJ’s combination of size and speed give him the potential to be something really special like AJ already is. This may not be his year because he is still learning, but his ceiling is extremely high. Let’s hope he stays healthy and is able to give the punt return game so real pop this year. Few plays in football are more exciting than a long punt return. I’m old enough to remember what Billy White Shoes did for the Oilers. JJ can do that for the Texans.

He’ll get regular opportunities in 4-wr sets and should catch 20-25 for 250-300 and 3-4 TD’s.

GO TEXANS!!!!!!!!

by oiler-texan diehard on Jul 3, 2008 4:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: JJ=White Shoes

If Jacoby has a career/impact that even deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as White Shoes, I’ll be ecstatic.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Jul 3, 2008 10:23 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Not unrealistic expectations

I don’t mean to put any undue pressure on young Jacoby, but I’m sure he already does that by himself; the desire to succeed I mean. Those 2 PR’s he took to the house in preseason last year, particularly the one at Arizona were outstanding. The one against Dallas was as much blocking as JJ’s breakaway speed, but the one vs the Cards looked like he should have made a fair catch. The great ones have a way of creating, making something out of nothing, a la Deion Sanders. That is just what JJ did on that play. That is why I see that something special in him. All he needs is a little help from his friends (blockers) and we have a 1st rate special teams coach so I am sure that they will do their part. Jacoby just has to get in the right frame of mind, and get that aura of invincibility that both Sanders & White Shoes had. GO Jacoby and…................

GO TEXANS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by oiler-texan diehard on Jul 4, 2008 8:45 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Standby

I rooted for Jared Zabranski and you see where that got him…..ok….still….I think Jacoby will make believers this year….hallelujah.

by 1Texan on Jul 3, 2008 11:11 PM CDT   0 recs

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