Mark Vandermeer's Love Child Breaks Down The Week 3 Offense
A lot of people were, shall we say, disappointed with my recap of the Texans 31-12 loss on Sunday. People said that I was looking at the game through Vandermeer-colored glasses. After all, the Texans just lost by 19. How can you say it was a good game? I'm glad you asked.
Yes, the Texans lost and yes, the Texans had some bad plays in there. Despite all that, I saw a world of awesome plays and even better, a winning game plan.
Let's look at the numbers.
The Texans' offense ran 65 plays. Even with the frantic passing attempts at the end of the game, they still came away with 57% passing/43% running. That's an incredibly balanced offensive attack. These plays were run out of 19 different formations. That means the Titans' defense saw a new look at least every 3.4 plays. It was far more often than that on most drives.
Schaub was shaky at times in the passing game, but he still put the ball where it needed to go more often than not. The "not" hurt with 3 interceptions and a few critical incompletes, but he's doing his job. With more practice, he'll do it better.
Also, there were numerous deep passes called. Kubiak had Schaub throwing to the flats, to the middle of the field, and deep down the side lines. As the game progressed, the Titans pass rush picked up in intensity. Kubiak had Schaub switch to 3 step drops as well as throw 2 great screens to slow down the pass rush.
The things that excited me most about the passing game were the play actions and bootlegs that were called. The Titans' defense was stacking 8-9 men in the box, and Kubiak started calling play actions and bootlegs against it. The Titans' defense backed up real quick. I'm excited because Kubiak made extensive use of some of his favorite tools in the passing game.
The running game itself was very even. With the exception of when it went directly behind the combination of Chris Myers and Mike Brisiel (RG) the running plays were called in every direction. I suspect that not as many running plays were called to go off right guard both because of a lack of power in that offensive line combination and as most runs off RG are straight at Albert Haynesworth.
Which brings me to a point I made in earlier posts: The Texans' offense played a very physical game. They moved all over the place in zone blocking for rushes and in pass protection. I reiterate that it was a great achievement to make Fat Albert run until he had to come off the field for a part of the game after having such a bad game against another fatty, Casey Hampton. This time Kubiak made the fat men run, and it had an effect. This will only improve with each game.
Most importantly, and I stress most importantly, Kubiak played the whole game from start to finish to win. He wasn't trying to keep it close. This game was a dog fight, and Kubiak had the Texans fighting the whole game. Rather than hope the Titans were going to slip up somewhere and have the Texans steal a win, Kubiak took it to them. He called 11 plays that were designed specifically to put the ball in the end zone. He took shots at the end zone from the 16 all the way out to the 35. They didn't pan out this game, but he took his shots. He went down in a blaze of glory. We know we have a coach who is playing to win. After years of a coach who played not to lose, I'm excited that we have a coach that knows how to win.
The scoring in this game was not as lopsided as the final score makes it appear. Examine the graph above and you'll see actual scoring on each drive, as well as the 11 attempts at the end zone. Despite all the mistakes along the way, it wasn't until midway through the 4th quarter that the game was out of reach. For the whole second half, a touchdown would have drastically changed the makeup of the game and Kubiak went for the TD over and over.
This game was a tale of 2 teams going all out. Take a look at the game book. First Downs: TEX 18 / TIT 19, 3rd Down Eff: TEX 20% / TIT 38%, Total Net Yds: TEX 317 / TIT 343, Total Off Plays: TEX 68 TIT 62, Average Gain: TEX 4.7 / TIT 5.5, Net Pass Yds: TEX 171 / TIT 189, Gross Pass Yds: TEX 188 / TIT 189. Even Net Punt Avg: TEX 38.8 / TIT 37.2.
There is only one stat that killed the Texans. Red Zone: TEX 1-6 17% / TIT 4-4 100%
That said, there are 3 things the Texans need to work on and games like this could turn into a 40+ point rout of the opponent.
Red Zone - The Texans are driving the ball down the field and not finishing. This has been a problem all along for the Texans, but now they're so close. Kubiak called 11 plays that were designed to specifiaclly put the ball in the endzone. That's a possible 77 points. Coming away with 1 TD and 12 total points says that when the Texans improve in the red zone, and when they do, they'll be hanging 30+ on opponents regularly.
Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson - Something is broken here. They are not in sync. I would make them stay after ever practice and throw every route imaginable until they are scoring TDs. Kubiak called AJ's number 12 times in the game. Of those 12 times, 5 of those plays had AJ in the endzone and he had 0 TD receptions. Of those 12 targets, he only had 2 receptions for 29 yards.
Running Game - The running game showed some life, especially with Steve Slaton going 18/116 1TD and an amazing 6.4 YPC. Yet, there were several running plays that managed to only pick up 3 or less yards. As the OL keeps working, I believe that the running game is going to be solid and churn out yards.
I'll look at the individual drives tomorrow and the defense later this week.
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24 comments
Comments
Balance, Red Zone
If as the result of a giant car crash, four people are burned alive and four people are killed from blunt force trauma, that’s certainly a nice balance in terms of causes of death, but once the mopping is complete and the tarps are removed, you’ve got eight dead people. It’s not the lack of balance or the number of formations that win games as far as I’m concerned.
I must have missed one, but from what I counted, Slaton had 12 carries for three yards or less, one for 3-5 yards and four for more than five yards (two of which running out the clock in the first half). I’m not bashing him, as I think he was tremendous. Having a big-play back is a maiden voyage for this franchise. When your #1 RB can’t gain more than is averaging something like 1.5 yards on 70% of your carries, your running game isn’t truly that successful, in my opinion.
While I’m brainstorming, I’ve also come up with an idea on how the Texans can improve their red zone percentage: kick field goals. Those fourth down calls were inexcusable. Take the points, claw back closer, and get some stops. Blazes of glory are great for escaped inmates and bank robbers; football teams are better served to exhibit some fashion of intelligence and poise.
by Scott on Sep 25, 2008 8:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Slaton
I looked him up on Football Outsiders, which measures, among other things, Success Rate, which:
represents the player’s consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower DVOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn’t often get more.
Slaton’s DVOA rank is 11 and his success rank is 12. That indicates to me that he’s been pretty consistent. If anything, I think the problem is with the backup running backs.
by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 25, 2008 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point is several of the things people reasonably bitched about earlier, ie. 1) vanilla offense – "run out of the I form every 1st down", 2) lack of passing with an obviously strong WR corps, 3) getting away from the run late in games. These 3 things and other grips are being addressed. That leads me to believe that the issues from this game, things like Schaub’s less than spectacular performance, AJ’s ridiculous drops, etc. will likewise be addressed.
And a balanced attack with varied looks and shots down field is what winning teams do. There’s a saying: "If you want to be poor, do what poor people do. If you want to be rich, do what rich people do."
Running game – "Yet, there were several running plays that managed to only pick up 3 or less yards. As the Oline keeps working, I believe that the running game is going to be solid and churn out yards."
We agree that without the big runs, the running game was lack luster. I’m of the belief that his is correctable. Over the course of this season, the YPC will march north. The reason I’m incredibly excited is that the running game did 2 things. 1) Because of Slaton, it finally has burst. No more Ahman Green or Ron Dayne 3 yds and a cloud of dust on every play. Slaton can hit the home run. Which brings me to the 2nd thing the running game did. It got the Titans respect. 2) After Slaton’s runs of 50 and especially after his run of 25 yds, the Titans bit on play actions and bootlegs. I would call this a major improvement.
I’ll get into this in more depth when I go over the drives in the next post. The short version is, for years we suffered through Dom Capers "play not to lose" mentality. No matter what kick the FG. Kubiak called an excellent game. I’ll show that more in my second post where I go over each drive. For the record, I would rather have a coach that’s playing to win than a coach that chips field goals from inside the 10. Do teams like Dallas, Philly, San Diego or New England pull up at the 10 and chip it in? No they punch it into the end zone. The only way for the Texans do the same is if they try. They tried and failed, but they tried 11 freaking times. There were a lot of points left on the field in that game. I’m saying I’m glad Kubiak went for them, because the Texans will get better in the red zone. They will convert those awesome pass plays that have AJ one on one in the end zone. They will win.
by marroncito on Sep 25, 2008 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll stipulate
that Kubiak did not lose this game for lack of trying. But this is the NFL, not second grade.
He should try, he must try. All the players were TRYING. Sorry, thats not good enough.
Running game was great, it just proves that maybe that wasn’t what we were missing last year. Running Sunday didn’t set up the pass, since Matt was scared in the pocket. Which kinda pisses me off, cuz after Albert calls him out, he looks scared. Guess whats coming the week before the next time we play them!
I think positives were extremely limited, and you still need to clean the pink stuff off your glasses and take a clear look at the state of our football team.
Healthy and Turnover free 2008-09, and we win 11!
by texanphil on Sep 25, 2008 8:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
nothing ventured, nothing gained
I’m not saying try as the moral victory David Carr-esque “we played hard”. What I’m saying is this game was not Run, Run, Pass, Punt over and over again. The Texans sustained drives, had a balanced attack the whole game. Were in the game until about 10 minutes into the 4th quarter.
The Texans were 1 for 11 on attempts at the end zone. If even 1 other TD had hit, this would have been a vastly different game, because it was a 12 point game until late in the 4th quarter. The Texans took 3 shots at the end zone in the 1st quarter, 4 shots in the 2nd quarter, 2 shots in the 3rd and 2 shots in the 4th.
The positives were many. The problems were limited. What did the Texans do wrong? They didn’t make the big plays. AJ will be better. No one can tell me that they believe that AJ is somehow suddenly not a Pro Bowl receiver. For whatever reason his head was not in this game. He makes his plays and we win.
by marroncito on Sep 25, 2008 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what did the texans do wrong...
I blame most of week one on coaching. Bad play calling on both sides of the ball, and Kubiak didn’t have his team ready. I don’t think the players played poorly.
Week two- more bad play calling, esp on offense. This trend must stop soon. Its one thing to be in a slump as a player (Schaub) but its another thing to have an unproven OC looking terrible in games one and two. But this game I was more impressed with the Defense, and the running game. We had to be pretty horrible on offense to have a good defensive game (great in the second half, when it matters) and a sound running attack, and still lose badly.
So what did the texans do wrong? I think the coaching has failed, they are part of the texans. I think in week 2 the players started to lose confidence, and to me didn’t appear to be the better team, or even a winning team.
I admire your positive attitude, but to say “if we had one more TD the game was close” is stretching it, because if we get to have our “ifs” can’t they have some too?
Healthy and Turnover free 2008-09, and we win 11!
by texanphil on Sep 26, 2008 12:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
While the defense definately looked horrible, it still managed to keep us in it. We do need to improve, although there were some signs of improvement.
I agree with your offensive analysis, and I’m actually in support of Kubiak’s fourth down decisions. He told his offense to go win it (and that he would take the blame if they failed…Tuesday Morning Quarterback talks about the general tendency of coaches to shift the blame on their players by taking the “safe” route), and the Texans couldn’t get it done. I think that will invigorate the team and help them in Sunday’s game.
I do think that the playcalling in the redzone was silly, though. 2nd and goal on the 1 = smash it in their faces with the run. Not two passes and then finally the run. I’m down on the Texans, but I think Sunday will prove if we do have a contender or another 6-10 season.
by Dragongem on Sep 25, 2008 9:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Great post
You did a good job of giving me back hope.
For me, after years of screaming at the T.V. or losing my voice at the game out of outrage that the coach never goes for it on fourth, I’m not going to flip-flop and start screaming that the 4th down conversion didn’t work.
But my beef isn’t with Kubiak’s 11 tries at a 4th. My beef is with his playcalling to set up the 4th. A vanilla run up the middle when Slaton had been stuffed countless times on the very same play? A vanilla run up the middle straight to Fat Albert? If that’s all the thought we put into our playcall, then maybe we should have just gone for the chip shot.
The Houston Texans. Bleeding battle red since 2002.
by HtownJuggernaut on Sep 25, 2008 9:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice!
I have been thinking and there were more positives than I was first lead to believe. Schaub has to get his game back, if he does this team will succeed. This week is the most important game of this season. We have always played the Jags hard( except for there last year) but they are beatable and the Texans basically own them.
GO TEXANS!!!!!!!!!
by Texanmaniac on Sep 25, 2008 12:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The thing is
Unlike D. Carr, we know that Schaub can play. We’ve seen him do it before. It’s just a question of whether he can get his mojo back before Kubes has to pull him.
by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 25, 2008 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What happened?
He came back and played well after the injury. He didn’t look gunshy then, I don’t know why he would now.
My real concern is that his recent troubling performances are due entirely to other teams finally getting enough film on him. If that’s the case, then Schaub has nowhere to go but down.
The Houston Texans. Bleeding battle red since 2002.
by HtownJuggernaut on Sep 25, 2008 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My theory
Is that he hasn’t recovered from getting rocked in Pittsburgh. Which doesn’t make for a good advertisement of his mental strength.
It didn’t help that he was up against a pretty good Tits D last week either.
by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 25, 2008 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can see that
But why should we believe he can recover from getting rocked by the BESFs if he couldn’t recover from Pittsburgh?
The Houston Texans. Bleeding battle red since 2002.
by HtownJuggernaut on Sep 25, 2008 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
It involves a lot of gin, a blindfold, and cheap Honduran cigars.
That’s my plan for the next game if things go bad, in any event.
by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 25, 2008 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously, though
I’m not sure. I guess it’s down to faith that he can do it.
by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 25, 2008 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha
Let me know if you have any spares. If things continue, I might need them.
Did you see Diehard Chris’s post comparing Schaub’s against Pitt & Titans with all the other QBs this year? Didn’t look quite so depressing. But it’s still like being the skinny kid at fat camp. Yeah, you don’t look bad compared to the other guys, but you’re still fat.
The Houston Texans. Bleeding battle red since 2002.
by HtownJuggernaut on Sep 25, 2008 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's some truth to that
But we’ve been expecting the Texans to look like a playoff team, or at least be competitive with one, and they’re not doing that just yet.
If they can recover from this poor start, I do believe that they can do it. Kubes seems to be able to keep the team from getting too down after big defeats.
by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 25, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like against the Titans after the Pittsburgh loss?
I mean, it’s a damn tough start to the year. I understand that. Hell, when I put money down on the Texas to beat 7 wins at Vegas, I expected them to lose these two. But it’s not the losses that have me worried. It’s the f|_|cking disaster on both sides of the field.
With that said, I’m glad marroncito wrote this post. He sounds convincing and I’m having trouble pointing out one particular thing that I disagree with. He’s given me back hope. Marroncito - we had a disaster of a red zone offense last year. And it seems to have gotten even worse. Why should we believe that Kubiak & Co. can fix it during the season when they didn’t manage it over this last offseason??? If anything, it should be much, much, much harder to fix.
The Houston Texans. Bleeding battle red since 2002.
by HtownJuggernaut on Sep 25, 2008 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ultimately
I put my hope in the fact that it is a long season. I know these guys can get better and I’m confident that they will. I just hope that they do it before it is too late.
by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 25, 2008 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what do you want?
these posts are a lot of work and i enjoy doing them, but they do take some time to prepare. at the rate it’s going, i’m going to be still posting about Week 3 on Saturday the day before the game against the Jags.
i think everybody’s voiced their opinions on week 3.
should i continue on to Defense, etc. or should i start writing pieces for the Jags game?
maybe a piece that HtownJuggernaut suggested “what can the Texans do to fix their red zone problems?”
by marroncito on Sep 25, 2008 3:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You all know my vote
The red zone problems date back to last season. And the one recurring theme in your piece was that it was “the only stat that killed the Texas.” I’d definitely love an in-depth piece on the red zone. Perhaps comparing it to our division rivals?? Or hell, I’d be happy with any possible solution.
Does anyone else remember how 2007 Schaub showed a propensity for INTs in the red zone more than at any other time? I wonder if my memory’s off or if he truly does have a problem seeing defenses once the field gets shortened.
The Houston Texans. Bleeding battle red since 2002.
by HtownJuggernaut on Sep 25, 2008 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Second That Recollection
Schaub did seem to throw the vast majority of his picks in the red zone last year.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
by Tim on Sep 25, 2008 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't get me wrong
I’m still on board with the Schaub, but as far as I’m concerned QBs make their living in the red-zone. And last year, Rosenfels I believe had the second highest red-zone QB rating in all of football (behind only Tom Brady).
Just something to think about.
by Nashmeister on Sep 25, 2008 6:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Great work marroncito, posting at 3AM
If Kubiak works as hard as you do then we go to Jacksonville with an unbeatable game plan. A game plan alone does not do it though. Schaub has to recapture the brilliance he showed last year. He even looked good to me in the preseason this year. Hard to put a finger on what has caused his subpar showing thus far. Probably a combination of several factors, not all of them his fault, but winning QB’s quickly adapt to game conditions, and Schaub has not shown enough of this so far. QB is the most important position on the field, and Kubiak needs to clearly communicate to Schaub that he is on a short leash this week. Either produce + drives early in the game, or be prepared to analyze the game from the sideline.
Thanks again for the in depth analysis. I really appreciate it, and can’t seem to find the time to do it myself. A red zone analysis would be cool, but it may be time to look forward to the Jags game because it already looks like it could be the fulcrum that our season swings on, for better or worse.
Sharing your bountiful enthusiasm, GO TEXANS!!!!!!!!!!!
by oiler-texan diehard on Sep 26, 2008 2:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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