Kiper's 1st mock is in, we get Everette Brown, DE Florida St
by oiler-texan diehard on Jan 22, 2009 4:53 PM CST
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Kiper Is Okay
He’s #9 of the top 100 mock drafters tracked by the Huddle Report. They say his three year average accuracy is 41.67% (yearly averages: 37, 48, & 40). His draft board is #13 of 100, with an accuracy of 79.7.
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But there are better, free ones:
http://www.thehuddlereport.com/Free/top100mock.shtml
by kozanack on Jan 23, 2009 8:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks kozanack, that page was a good report card on the best mockers
but they don’t have any links to current mocks. Looks like they want a $9.95 subscription fee to see any predictions. I didn’t do any crosschecks, but this page has links to actual mocks. No report card, but they are fun to look at.
by oiler-texan diehard on Jan 23, 2009 9:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I Use The Same Set of Links
I just use the Huddle Report ’s mock draft report card to tell identify the ones worth paying attention to
by kozanack on Jan 24, 2009 9:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I Hadn't Seen Your Mock Draft Tracker
It’s a great asset. Your tracker tells me everything I need to know. Haven’t been paying much attention to the Texans recently, so I hadn’t seen it.
by kozanack on Jan 24, 2009 3:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
LZ's first mock is up at the Chron, he has us taking Peria Jerry
In what Lance admits is a worst case scenario for the Texans, he projects 6 defensive picks in the 1st 14 (Curry, Raji, Jenkins, Brown, Maualuga and Maybin). He then predicts that we will go with the big DT Jerry, but adds that Brian Cushing, OLB, USC is also a good possibility here. Even if the 1st 14 picks go down as he projects, there will still be plenty of defensive talent on the board from which to choose if Smith cannot pull off the move down to add an extra pick. Besides Jerry & Cushing, we could go Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois who some say should be rated ahead of Jenkins because of his superior physicality and tackling abilty. Lance is not high on Orakpo for the Texans, questioning his ability to be a 4-3 DE, thinking he is more of a 3-4 OLB. Kollar likes smallish fast DE’s and I think Orakpo fits that description. Senior Bowl is this weekend. Good chance to check out almost all of our available choices at 15.
by oiler-texan diehard on Jan 24, 2009 8:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Trade down!
I’ve now convinced myself that Rey and Raji aren’t going to be there at 15, so I’m hardcore on the trade down wagon.
Peria, Brown, Maybin, and even Orakpo scare the shit out of me at 15.
by HoustonDiehards on Jan 24, 2009 11:54 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thank you for joining my church
Please remember to tithe.
by Shake on Jan 24, 2009 3:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It May Be Time To Trade Up
We’ve got competent depth at almost every position. So I think that we really need impact players now. That seems to me to mean that we trade up.
by kozanack on Jan 24, 2009 3:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Strongly disagree with the trade up, don't think depth is a strength
and trading up is for teams that are 1-2 players away from being championship caliber. That’s not the Texans. We have at least 3-4 big needs on defense, and need another RB.
I always like hearing what other people are thinking. Who do you think we should trade up for?
by oiler-texan diehard on Jan 24, 2009 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
Oiler-Texan is right. Just given the fact that we are discussing DT, DE, LB and S for the draft means we have too many holes to give up a valuable pick, especially considering the kind of people we have gotten in the later rounds (Slaton, Daniels, Adibii).
Let’s also not get spoiled by the offense. It was great to see them do so well, but we can’t take the attitude that that side of the team is completely set. We had great yardage totals, especially passing, but we were abysmal in the red zone.
Let's get a better fight song.
by Jake on Jan 24, 2009 6:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yup
QB, K, P, WR we’re cool.
Everywhere else could at least use DEPTH. Most (all) an upgrade is needed
We are still heavily in the ACQUIRING extra picks mode, not trade up mode.
If we make the AFC championship game in 2009 and our offense is still top 5, and we just needed that one stud at Safety, then I would argue for 2010 draft we should trade up for a specific need.
Please draft some defensive stars for the next DC.
by texanphil on Jan 24, 2009 7:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My Point Is That I Think The Texans Are A Couple Of Players Away
I can’t remember where I read this. I think it was CHFF, but I can’t locate it. Basically, a study of NFL player performance vs where they were drafted indicates most of the dominant NFL players are drafted early. Players taken later tend to be role players and depth.
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To me, a one more dominant players on defense and we are in the hunt for the playoffs. Two more, and we have a fighting chance to make the SB. We need a dominant player in the front seven, and one in the secondary. Those players tend to come at the top of the draft.
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So to me, trading up makes perfect sense
by kozanack on Jan 24, 2009 8:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
For Example
If B.J. Raji is as good as advertised, he would immediately push the defense up a couple of notches. Given that, is he worth a 1st and 2nd rounder?
by kozanack on Jan 24, 2009 10:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing would improve the Texans D more than a monster DT
who could not only stuff the run, but collapse the pocket a la Albert Haynesworth. QB pressure covers up weakness in the secondary. The pre senior bowl hype at ESPN.com on BJ Raji was glowing. He was the best lineman in camp on either side of the ball. Shooting up the charts. I did not get to see the game, I have no NFL network, but I see that BJ Raji got just one assist ranking him at the bottom of the D stat list. Stats frequently are misleading, but I would have expected more from him after all the buildup. Mario frequently disrupts the action without racking up tackles. Was this the case with Raji? or did he just have a bad game? Still a long way to go till April, but this seems to be yet another example of how difficult drafting is.
Does anyone out there who watched the game have a take on Raji, or the game in general? Thanks in advance for your comments.
by oiler-texan diehard on Jan 25, 2009 7:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
this seems to be yet another example of how difficult drafting is.
Herein lies the gamble with trading up. We may trade up and Raji is worth the 1 and 2 and we look brilliant.
We may trade up and Raji is a bust, and how much is that #2 we lost worth now?
We stay pat, take BPA, AND a #2 and get TWO shots at an impact player.
We trade down, BPA, AND a #2, AND an extra #3, AND an extra #6 and get 3 more chances of guessing correctly (verses trading up), and possibly impacting more positions than just DL. Thats where my money is for 2009.
Please draft some defensive stars for the next DC.
by texanphil on Jan 25, 2009 8:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah we have all seen how good Smith is at finding gems in the later rounds
that it would be no surprise for us to move down unless an irresistible player falls to us; and I am not sure exactly who would fit that bill. A quick scan of the last three drafts shows that we got Winston and Slaton in the 3rd round; OD, The Fred and X-Man in the 4th; Zac Diles and David Anderson in the 7th. The picks to get both Winston and Slaton were acquired via the trading down in the 1st round maneuver.
Our only move up into the first round draft day trade in history (blame Casserly, not Smith) was this disaster:
“The Texans traded their second, third and fourth-round picks (40th, 73rd and 103rd overall) in the 2004 NFL Draft to the Tennessee Titans for their 2004 first-round pick (27th overall), which was used to select defensive end Jason Babin. The Texans also exchanged their firth-round pick (138th overall) for Tennessee’s fifth-rounder (159th overall) as part of the deal”. Babin was our 2nd 1st round pick that year. The awesome Dunta was picked at #10.
One other notable waste of draft picks was this gem (again blame Casserly):
“The Texans traded their second and third-round picks (47th and 78th overall) in the 2005 NFL Draft to the Oakland Raiders for cornerback Phillip Buchanon”
I will be shocked if we sacrifice picks to move up at any point in the 2009 draft.
by oiler-texan diehard on Jan 25, 2009 10:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Given Smithiak's ability to find good players at all points in the draft
…for example Slaton and Owen Daniels, I think trading down to get more lower round picks is the better option.
I read an article that showed that the best value (talent vs cost) in the draft is actually found in the late first round through the end of the second. Considering we may be dishing out some free agent contracts in the next couple of years (Dunta, for example), I think it would be better to trade down and get a few more lower-round picks.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Jan 26, 2009 8:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
All the more reason to trade down (talent vs cost)
which appears to be a popular call on the blogs. I think it is much easier said than done, but Smith has shown he has the ability to not only pull it off but maximize the return on the added picks.
by oiler-texan diehard on Jan 26, 2009 10:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Correct...It Takes Two To Tango
I’m pretty confident that nearly every NFL GM would be open to trading back in the vast majority of situations; I think the toughest part is finding a partner who wants to move up.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
by Tim on Jan 27, 2009 9:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The salary cap puts added pressure on GM's
High #1’s and proven quality FA’s are both very costly. Best way to fill out a roster is by drafting the right guys first and keeping them in the fold until they become unrestricted FA’s. So it’s probably no great revelation that all GM’s would like a few more picks in the middle rounds. One great thing about Smith is that to date he has utilized these picks so well that he reminds me of an Oiler architect from days gone by, the late great Mike Holovak.
by oiler-texan diehard on Jan 27, 2009 2:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And the most important question...
Where did Kiper’s hair rank on the list?
by Shake on Jan 24, 2009 6:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
For me it ranks just below Digger Phelps’ matching tie and highlighter ensemble.
by HoustonDiehards on Jan 24, 2009 9:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
His Hair
Was originally drafted in 1971 by the Oakland Raiders. They waived it in 1976. It bounced around the league for a while, then ended up on skid row after a bout with substance abuse (inhalants, specifically hair spray). After the hair successfully completed a 12 step rehab program, it was placed in a resale shop, where Mel purchased it in 1988.
by kozanack on Jan 24, 2009 10:10 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
+1
And rec’d.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Jan 26, 2009 8:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
While Brown wouldn't be a bad pick
I don’t see the rest of the draft working out that way. Kiper knows the players entering the draft very well, perhaps better than Mike Mayock. Where Kiper absolutely blows is mock drafting. He gets them fairly right during the draft, but his mocks are off.
On a personal note, I don’t see Stafford and Sanchez going top 5. I think you’ll see something similar to last season where there’s a lot of trading. Detroit has two first round picks so they could very well take a left tackle first, then gamble on Sanchez or Stafford with their later pick. Or trade back up to get their QB. Or realistically, wait next year for McCoy or Bradford.
by Leein3D on Jan 27, 2009 6:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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