Kubiak, the running game, and game theory
Having dealt with a family crisis the last few days, I wasn't exactly putting on my analysis hat the last couple of days for the Cardinals game. In fact, I missed most of the game. But it seems like the vast majority of the criticism throughout Texan blogosphere is brought to the running game, in particular Steve Slaton and the run blocking's inability to get yards inside and Gary Kubiak's refusal to stop calling inside runs.
While I understand the outrage here, I'm at least a little sympathetic to Kubiak because he simply hasn't ever had this problem in his coaching career. With the Broncos, they had a running game that could churn out solid gains in it's sleep. Running behind multiple Pro Bowl inside linemen like Mark Schlereth and Tom Nalen is a little different than running behind Chris Myers and Kasey Studdard, as we've discovered this year. I've been shouting since about Week 2 that the running game with Steve Slaton needs to be focused more on draws and sweeps, with the screen PASS a big weapon too (thanks Beef).
The real problem for the Texans is that Kubiak builds his offense to run the play-action pass to perfection. As I stated in a previous charting report on FMB, I think if we sorted the teams 10 biggest plays this season by yardage, about 8 or 9 of them would have come off the play-action pass. To run the play-action pass effectively though, you sort of have to put up with running the ball up the middle and taking the results of that. With past Broncos teams, and the last few years' Texans, running up the middle brings the Kubiak offense 3-4 yards. This year it's taken us into a ton of 2nd and 9, 2nd and 8, 2nd and 11, and other unfavorable markers. However, even despite the fact that the run game has been putrid, the play-action pass has been devastating. Which brings you to the conundrum: how many carries can Kubiak sacrifice and still keep the PA passes as productive as they have been? It's not as cut and dry as "running the ball doesn't work, run the ball less", because running the ball is working on one level. Now you can say "teams will eventually play off our run and go into PA coverage," but if you keep giving teams 1 or 2 yard losses, which usually in the NFL are drive-enders if you can get them, they're going to keep playing to stop the run.
So yes, the run game looks awful. I can assure you from my tape that this is not Steve Slaton, but I know that's sort of a moot point. But just how many plays are the Texans going to be able to cut from the run game and keep play-action working strong? We're at 126 rushing and 115 passing, so about a 52/48 ratio. Could the Texans offense succeed at 45/55? Probably so. But you can't completely abandon the run down to 40/60 or so and risk losing your biggest weapon. I would like to see the Texans run more spread and *gulp* I'd love to see them run the no huddle every once in awhile. With the traits we've emphasized in linemen and our personnel it works best to out-athleticism other teams.
But I can't really see pinning the entire loss on Kubiak and the run game for a few reasons:
1) We're 4 games into the season coming into Arizona, waaaay before the point where we've reached a strong enough sample of games to really tell who is going to do what and who is good or bad (and yes, this is variable for NFL players, particularly depending on their health). Especially when we're still trying to figure out what Studdard ultimately is, and now what Breisel's replacement will bring to the table. I'm always preaching about how players need to make an immediate impact to be considered good, but it's clear the Texans don't have any better options in the middle. They may be trying a sampling to see just what their guys are good at to better call plays later. Playcalling is a lot more complex than "lets run the best plays we have" early in the season, especially when you aren't used to your new personnel. Perhaps someone up front is hiding an injury? Chris Myers is clearly favoring his vag...well, you know what I mean. We aren't privy to everything.
2) Chris Brown is not a goal line back. I think we've all accepted that. However, Chris Brown is not any worse of a goal line back than Slaton is either. The Texans don't have a real goal line back. The Texans don't have any interior offensive linemen who can create a push on the goal line. So on that last sequence, I have no problems with Kubiak's play calling. First play was a Slaton shovel (which I thought was excellent) to get to the goal line. Second, run. Third, the play-action set up off the run, which Schaub didn't execute. Now, the fourth down call was weird to me, but not out of the question weird. The real key is that the drive should've been over on third down, Kubiak did his job there and Schaub let him down. Not that I'm driving the Sex Cannon for Prez bus or anything, but that was lack of execution.
3) This team is the sum of it's crappy parts. We have our good parts, but we aren't good enough to make up for poor execution. We can live with crappy safety play if we get a few breaks, but we can't have Matt Turk punting the Cardinals onto our 45 and still live with it. We can live with Schaub making a few mistakes every game, but we have to stay away from penalties. We can live with Jacoby Jones returning punts and muffing a few, but not when we can't stop the run. The Texans have enough talent to hang with anyone in the league, but they can't overcome their weak points unless they execute 80-85% of the game properly, and they just don't do that consistently. I don't think you can pin the loss on the run game just because they were the last ones on the field. No question they were awful, but were they really any more awful than the TD drive with 50 seconds left when all you had to do was hold them out of the end zone? Were they really any more awful than Schaub's throwing power on the comeback routes?
I think the running game is a convenient target, due to both the lack of Slaton yards compared to last year and the fact that it's "holding back" the offense that was supposed to be our strong suit. Nobody expected our defense to be great, so if they stink, that's fine. But the running game? That was supposed to be in good hands. Well, it's not a great interior line at all, and they could tweak a few things, absolutely. But you can't just ask Kubiak to destroy his entire system and do something completely different just because the inside running is bad, especially when it is working on one level. The system has worked for years, so clearly it's not a design flaw so much as a personnel problem. Chris Myers needs to go and we need to see what White, Caldwell, and any other street FAs we can think of can do on the field, that's the bottom line.
3 recs |
18 comments
Comments
you make some excellent points that have been brought up before. The running game was successful last year with the same scheme and basically the same personnel. Someone this year just isnt making their assignments(Im looking at you Chris Myers). You are also correct in that our passing game absolutely depends on pass action passing, so we have to run the ball even if its not very effective just to keep the defense honest. If we abandon the run, the defense will no longer bite on play action, and our passing game will come to a grinding halt.
Chris Brown does suck as a goal line back, and that being the only reason we really have him on the roster, hes a total waste imo. We should have cut ties with him and gotten us a shorter 230lb better downhill runner. Brown is just too tall and lanky and stands up straight.
I think our running game is going to be hurting for a while with 2 new guards in there trying to get a rhythm and some tough rush defenses we play this year. I would like to see us try more stretch plays and more guard/tackle pulls to the outside. Up the middle isnt working, lets be more creative with Slaton’s speed on the outside for a few plays a game.
Be judgmental about the actions of the past, be hopeful about the actions of the future. -The Homers Creed
by DaGoaT on Oct 16, 2009 7:17 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Chris Brown's replacement
…is who?
That’s the problem.
I mean, I’d love to see the Texans try Deuce McAllister but when an entire league ignores someone, there’s usually a reason.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement
by riversmccown on Oct 16, 2009 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
there is no replacement for this year, we are stuck with him.
Be judgmental about the actions of the past, be hopeful about the actions of the future. -The Homers Creed
by DaGoaT on Oct 16, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We all know that about Brown, but...
Name me a back outside of Chris Johnson that could’ve gotten in on that play, with the O and D lines in the backfield. It should be noted that the only reason I said Chris Johnson is because he’s a vagina like Reggie Bust and only runs outside, which happens to be the only place we had any business running on that play.
Our short yardage playcallng has now been reduced to “run a sweep or throw it.” Which is why we don’t need a bigger back at all. Get me a Brian Westbrook, who is not big in the least, but can skinny-up and get in the endzone. Slaton should be able to do this, but I guess all of his TD’s at West Virginia were of the 20+ yard variety.
Also, rivers… I hate to nitpick, but it’s kinda my thing… A screen is not a running play.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
by beefy on Oct 16, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bah, edited
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement
by riversmccown on Oct 16, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still love you.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
by beefy on Oct 16, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I saw no fight to get in on 4th down
and maybe he wasn’t running hard because he was pre-occupied with not fumbling, which is a good thing. Its a small victory in his mind because he held on to the ball. yay.
The real crime in my mind is that he didn’t get in on 2nd down. He didn’t finish that run. Put the damn ball in on second down and Kubiak looks like a hero for bringing the troops back.
Smushiak will take us to the playoffs in 2009.
by texanphil on Oct 16, 2009 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't matter who your goal line back is if the O-line gets no push.
Deuce, Ron Dayne, Andre the Giant…WHOEVER.
They will get demolished at the line because there is no push and no holes.
This is an O-Line problem. Period.
"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."
The ROSENFAIL : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAKAKE-uq-8&feature=related
by TexansForever on Oct 16, 2009 9:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd say it's like 75/25 O-Line
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement
by riversmccown on Oct 16, 2009 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I beg to differ.
If you take a merengue pie…. Heck, a key lime pie would do. Hang it from the goal post. I can assure you that Ron “I love me some pie” Dayne will get to it.
by Jordann on Oct 16, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look at the second touchdown by AJ
if he got tackled by the any of the three dudes that tried on that play most would say, “No player would score on that play.” Well he did.
So put all the other RBs in the league in the backfield on that play, and I say 40-50% get in. I can’t prove it, of course, its just speculation on my part. But I believe he wanted so badly to not fumble that he didn’t finish the run.
Smushiak will take us to the playoffs in 2009.
by texanphil on Oct 16, 2009 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Big difference
between powering through a corner and safety like AJ and pushing through 3 DTs in the hole. That said what ever happened to going over the top LT style.
by sammocyr on Oct 21, 2009 7:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent work, Rivers!
I’ve found that there’s going to be people who will only blame Kubes, and that’s the extent of it with them. They completely dismiss any thought process that might go into the calls and coaching as a whole.
It’s nice to see someone lay it out like you have, and I commend you for it.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
by beefy on Oct 16, 2009 2:15 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Without a doubt, our passing game relies on the run.
We do need to pound it in the middle to force the D to respect it. I just don’t think twice on the 1 yard line to put the game into overtime is a good idea. The “keeping the D honest” argument is irrelevant then. At that point you need your best play and your best players.
by distant_texans_fan on Oct 16, 2009 8:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
abandon the run
sounds like a bad idea on the surface.
But really, this is the idea behind what I feel is our best attack each week. Which is “pass to set up the run.” We all know Kubes favors the inverse.
Pass a LOT in the first half, get them to think we’ve given up on the run. They make adjustments at halftime, and we run all over them in the second half.
The inverse just puts us in a hole at halftime where we pass the whole rest of the game, sometimes injuring our QB.
Smushiak will take us to the playoffs in 2009.
by texanphil on Oct 16, 2009 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think thats what we ended up doing a lot last season
And it worked for us. Plus Slaton was an unknown last year and not respected so much.
I think a Pass to set up the Run system would work well.
But hasn’t someone else done that already? Somewhere on the west coast maybe? You never know, it might work.
by distant_texans_fan on Oct 17, 2009 8:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and I think you hit on why
even when our running game sucks, the play action still works.
Slaton has respect, and you always have to respect the handoff on play action, cuz he has the potential to burn you.
Smushiak will take us to the playoffs in 2009.
by texanphil on Oct 17, 2009 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nowhere was this more evident
Than against the Tits. The mere threat of Slaton breaking one out of nowhere (like he did last year against them) caused them to bite repeatedly on play fakes.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Oct 18, 2009 4:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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