Bill Belichick - Fourth and 2

by Rip Jersey on Nov 16, 2009 9:27 AM CST Comment 19 comments

I realize that coaches face critical decisions at critical points in critical games. With a six-point lead and 2:08 to play, Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28 yard line defies all reasoning. Sure, make the first down and you can run the clock out. But, don't make it....well, you know the rest of the story. Some may argue that it was just one game. Well, it was one game that could decide who gets home field advantage in the playoffs, should the two teams meet again.

I think this topic is too important not to discuss, even though the Texans were not involved. Full disclosure; I am a pseudo-Patriots fan, having spent part of my childhood and adulthood in Massachusetts. I rooted for Steve Grogan and now I root for the Patriots when they are in the Super Bowl, and the Steelers, for that matter.

My opinion on Belechick's call? I think he's an idiot. I was watching the game and I thought it then...and when the play failed, I thought so even more. He should have punted and made Manning go the distance.

I trust Gary Kubiak to not make such a hair-brained call near the end of a game.

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Use of Timeouts Was Abysmal Too

I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. Yes, get the first down and the game is over. But giving the ball back to Peyton Manning with less than 30 yards to go with the game on the line? With nearly 2 minutes left? You just can’t do it.

Maybe Manning drives the Colts 70 yards for the win after the punt, but you have to pin the Colts as far back as you can there. Have to. I still cannot fathom that Belichick did that.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Nov 16, 2009 9:54 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

i remeber the smile on Manning' face

After he threw his two picks. It was a smile of “Man, how could I not see that coverage!” Outside, he was smiling, but you know, inside he was feeling fuming at himself. When he got that last chance with just 28 yards to go, just imagine what he was thinking! “Reggie Wayne, Reggie Wayne!” Hahahaha! We know that feeling all too well!

I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?

by Rip Jersey on Nov 16, 2009 11:11 AM CST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

total lack of faith in his defense to make a play is what that was.

Be judgmental about the actions of the past, be hopeful about the actions of the future. -The Homers Creed

by DaGoaT on Nov 16, 2009 10:54 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I disagree.

He made the right call IMO. With 2:08 to play, if they converted the play; the game would’ve been over. If they punted, the Colts do get a longer field but we’ve all seen what Manning is capable of. A 1:45 is enough time for Peyton to cover 70-80 yards and score the game winning touchdown. Although he was picked off twice, Manning was tearing that defense up. And Belichick recognized that. If you had the choice between relying on the patriots offense to complete a 4TH & 2 with your QB being Tom Brady and the patriots defense to make a stop against a red-hot Manning, would you really choose your defense that’s been picked apart the whole game?

by Jordann on Nov 16, 2009 11:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

And if Kubiak was in the same situation

I would want him to go for it.

by Jordann on Nov 16, 2009 11:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Belichick has succeded so many times in the past on 4th down that he had to go for it

Sure the field position is why at first glance the call to go for it seems reckless, but he rated his chances of Brady converting vs his chances of stopping Peyton with 2 minutes to go; and he took his QB. I agree with his decision to go for it, but I’m sure he realizes that his entire defense knows that he has little confidence in them in crunch time. He has the last 7 weeks of the season to correct that, and if he doesn’t it may be his undoing in the postseason.

It took the Astros 44 years to get to the Series, the Oilers-Texans are due to get to the big dance...Go Texans!!!!!

by oiler-texan diehard on Nov 18, 2009 2:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lots of people think

Going for it on fourth down every time is a good idea.

I kind of wonder whether or not it was justified considering the game situation but I generally agree that coaches should go for it on fourth down more often. So kudos to Belichek for that.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Nov 16, 2009 11:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

That was a good read.

And I completely agree with it.

Most coaches worry too much about their job security so they punt on situations such as that. So even if they lose, the coach can’t be blamed for it. The value of winning is definitely higher and was worth the risk in that given situation.

by Jordann on Nov 16, 2009 11:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it was the right call to go for it

but I hated the play call, should have run a screen because everyone was selling out on the pass rush.

You can't fix Dumb

by Texans-Brocos on Nov 16, 2009 12:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I loved the play call.

2 yards. Brady and Faulk have been running that play since they were kids! It just so happened that Faulk bobbled the catch.

by Jordann on Nov 16, 2009 12:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It was the right call...

…because with Moss and Welker, you figure they can get 2 yards. I would’ve run a screen or even just a 4 yard drag route.

If this was Kubes, I’d hope he would do the same thing and run a short route with Andre or a screen pass. Giving the ball to Peyton with 2 minutes is just as risky when you’re defense is gassed.

by TexansDC on Nov 16, 2009 12:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

your*

by TexansDC on Nov 16, 2009 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I actually thought it was the best call at the time.

70 yards to go or 30 yards to go – that defense wasn’t going to stop Peyton, and he KNEW it. You’ve got one of the best – if not the best – offenses in the NFL, with some of the best weapons in the NFL, and you only need to make two yards and if you do, the game is OVER without question.

I thought it was not necessarily the RIGHT call, but I thought within the flow of that game and the circumstances surrounding it – there was plenty of justification for that call.

It’s a classic example of a “make it and you’re a genius, miss it and you’re an idiot” call.

Chris - www.HoustonDiehards.com

by HoustonDiehards on Nov 16, 2009 12:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

i agree...

darned if you do, darned if you don’t

by Cougsfan on Nov 17, 2009 7:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The Patriots made several mistakess on that last drive

…and it all goes back to Belichick, because he’s the coach.

Mistake #1 – at 2:23 left in the game, right after the kickoff and a TV timeout, Patriots call a timeout, without a play and without any time coming off the clock.

Mistake #2 – 3rd and 2, with 2:11 to play, the Patriots call a pass, which is incomplete and the clock stops. If they had run the ball and gained only one yard, they would only have one yard on 4th down and the clock would have run down to the 2 minute warning.

Mistake #3 – Patriots use another timeout without running a play.

Those three mistakes led up to the final mistake, which, I know, is debatable. But, after squandering and mismanaging this possession, why should Belichick stop there. Going for it and not making it on 4th and 2 was the cherry on top of the ice cream Sunday for Peyton Manning and the Colts.

I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?

by Rip Jersey on Nov 16, 2009 4:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

That's what I think...

…everyone wants to bitch at 4th and 2. My thing is, if he didn’t use his timeouts….ran to quickly run a play…..either Indy burns its last time out and I punt OR you catch Indy off guard.

An offense with Brady, Moss, and Welker…..getting 2 yards to win the game is something that shouldn’t be questioned. The time-out usage is the big mistake.

by TexansDC on Nov 17, 2009 3:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

SHOCKER: Bill may have been right

I disagree with the original post.

Either way, the Colts needed a touchdown to win, and they would be going for it on 4th down.

It is very difficult to stop the Colts in the open field, especially when the offense is “on fire”. It is somewhat easier to stop the Colts in the redzone – where zones shrink because there is no deep threat.

The Patriots basically had the choice between two options…

1) Go for it.

This likely had about a 70% chance of succeeding given the short yardage and the potency of their offense. Therefore, there is a 70% chance of winning the game right then and there. There is a 30% chance that it fails, and Peyton gets the ball at the Patriots 30 yard line.

2) Punt it.

This would most likely net about 40 yards, meaning that the Colts would have to drive 70 yards to get a touchdown. There is a chance that the punt could be blocked (probably only 1-2%), and there is also the chance that the punt would be returned for a solid gain (meaning the Colts might get the ball at their own 40 or 45 yard line) or maybe even returned for a touchdown.

The decision really comes down to one question: How important are the 20-50 yards of field position when the opposing team has perhaps the best passing attack in the NFL and must score a touchdown?

Would you trade 40 yards of field position for a 7/10 chance to win the game right there?

Keep in mind, the Patriot’s defense would not want to give up the big play, and would most likely play soft zone coverage (practically allowing Peyton to move the ball down the field in exchange for time off the clock).

In my opinion, the Colts almost certainly would have driven down field to the Patriot’s 30 yard line. The question is – WHEN? Probably without about 1:15 or 1:00 on the clock and at least one time out.

Again, are you willing to trade that 70% chance of winning for about one minute of time and two clock stops?

It seems to me that Bill made the right call.

Cliff note arguments:
1) Colts offense was hot.
2) Soft zone coverage to prevent the big play would have allowed the Colts to move it to the 30 anyways.
3) It is easier to defend when in the red zone because there is no deep threat.
4) Patriots had about a 70% chance to convert the 4th down.
5) Punts can be blocked, and big returns do happen.

Mario > VY > Bush
Schaub > Romo

Go TEXANS!
Go TCU FROGS!

by MFriday on Nov 18, 2009 4:29 PM CST reply actions 1 recs