Complete Fiction: Do we have a shot at the Playoffs

by distant_texans_fan on Dec 2, 2009 7:09 AM CST

Obviously, our chance of winning a Division Title has passed. But can we still make it to the Playoffs as a Wildcard? It's a big ask, but mathematically possible.

I'm sure we'd have to win out, but theoretically, we could drop a game and make it, but all the right teams have to lose for that to happen.

First up, Can we finish second in the Division? Or can we finish third and be one of three AFC South teams in the Post season. Like Jacksonville, Tennessee and Indy were two years ago.

Secondly, who else in in the hunt and how many games do they have to drop for us to be in it?

Part One

Schedules

Texans(5-6): @Jacksonville, Seattle, @St Louis, @Miami, New England.

Jaguars(6-5): Houston, Miami, Indy, @New England, @Cleveland.

Titans(5-6): @Indy, St Louis, Miami, San Diego, @Seattle.

So while we look down the stretch and see (I hope) four winnable games and a finale against the Pats, finishing 10-6.

After us, the Jags have three more tough games. It is conceivable that Jacksonville loses to us, Indy, Miami and NE, then wins against the Browns. Finishing 7-9.

Hopefully the Titans lose in Indy this week, then drop a game against the Dolphins or the Chargers. Finishing 8-8 as well.

Part Two

Other teams in the mix. We're not sure who else will be a Division champ, so that leaves a lot of variables out there to ponder.

AFC EAST: NE(7-4) Miami(5-6) Jets(5-6)
AFC NORTH: Bengals(8-3) Steelers(6-5) Ravens(6-5)
AFC WEST: Chargers(8-3) Broncos(7-4)

Anyone else want to chip in with some thoughts. Its 2am here in New Zealand, So I'm going to try and get some sleep before work in 5 hours time.

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Comments

Obviously

Now we need to root for the Jags, Steelers, and Ravens to lose every game they play as well as for the Texans to win from here on out. Go ahead and root against the Broncos too, they’re definitely capable of folding late in the season. We don’t need those teams to lose every game, but every game they lose makes it easier for us and every game they win lowers the odds of us making the playoffs whether we win or not.

by Bryan72076 on Dec 2, 2009 10:49 AM CST reply actions

basically they would have to win out and 2 out of the 3 between Denver, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore would have to finish 9-7 as pretty much everyone beats us in a tiebreaker with our crappy divisional and conference record.

Be judgmental about the actions of the past, be hopeful about the actions of the future. -The Homers Creed

by DaGoaT on Dec 2, 2009 11:23 AM CST reply actions

There is a chance

Need to beat the Jags, first. The team can’t think about any other game right now. We, as fans, can. But first, the Jags!

So, let’s say, the Texans beat the Jags. While no game in the NFL is a slam-dunk, home games against Seattle and St Louis appear winnable.

If the above can happen and there is a little help around the league, the Texans would be 8-6 and they would be in the playoff conversation, IF Tennessee, NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Denver all lose at least one game. That would make their records: Jacksonville (8-6) Tennessee (7-7), NY Jets (7-7), Pittsburgh (8-6), Baltimore (8-6), and Denver (9-5)

But first, the Jags!

I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?

by Rip Jersey on Dec 2, 2009 11:32 AM CST reply actions 1 recs

It's fairly obvious what's going to happen...

Jacksonville and Tennessee won’t make it since a loss pretty much eliminates you are this point. You can take out Miami and the Jets too since they aren’t running the table with their schedules.

The Texans will win the next 4 to make you believe…then drop a close one at New England. That’s what’s shaping up.

I think it’ll be the winner of Ravens-Steelers II, by the way.

by TexansDC on Dec 2, 2009 11:40 AM CST reply actions

I predict Denver in the 5th and Pittsburgh in the 6th seed. Baltimore as first runner up.

Be judgmental about the actions of the past, be hopeful about the actions of the future. -The Homers Creed

by DaGoaT on Dec 2, 2009 12:31 PM CST up reply actions

The NE game is at Reliant

and if it has playoff ramifications the house will be rockin’, but I’m not counting on it.

It took the Astros 44 years to get to the Series, the Oilers-Texans are due to get to the big dance...Go Texans!!!!!

by oiler-texan diehard on Dec 3, 2009 7:58 PM CST up reply actions

Do we have a chance? Yes

There is also a CHANCE that:

1. Tiger Woods isn’t cheating on his wife.

2. Aliens will abduct all of us for a pre-game party aboard there spaceship.

3. Bud Adams will apologize to Houston and disband the Titans.

Personally, I feel all of those are more likely at this point than us making the playoffs.

"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."

The ROSENFAIL : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAKAKE-uq-8&feature=related

by TexansForever on Dec 2, 2009 12:35 PM CST reply actions

I can agree on the first two.

But not the third one.

by Jordann on Dec 2, 2009 12:50 PM CST up reply actions

My mistress looks good,

My mistress feels good, I like my chances.

You are banned from Music City Miracles.
Happy Now Tits?
You are banned from Blogging The Boys.

by CFHTim on Dec 2, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions

I'd do Tiger's wife

Just sayin’.

Elin, call me.

"Because you cant read. Get lost looser." - Mcnair2VY

by bigfatdrunk on Dec 2, 2009 10:24 PM CST up reply actions

bud adams is crazy enough to do a wide variety of things… like lets say wearing oilers colors against houston….

by Ivan A on Dec 3, 2009 9:13 PM CST reply actions

Now, where were we..

Texans(5-6): @Jaguars(W), Sehawks(W), @Rams(W), @Dolphins(W), Patriots(W). 10-6 Finish
Jaguars(6-5): Texans(L), Dolphins(L), Colts(L), @Patriots(L), @Browns(W). 7-9 Finsh
Titans(5-6): @Colts(L), Rams(W), Dolphins(L), Chargers(W), @Seahawks(W). 8-8 Finish

So this puts us second in our division. Now we just need to be one of the top two Wildcard teams….

If we assume that the Patriots(7-4) and Bengals(8-3) make the playoffs as the champs, that leaves the Broncos(7-4) and Chargers(8-3) in the West. One will be champ, the other will be in wildcard contention. Then there are the rest. Miami(5-6), Jets(6-6), Steelers(6-5) & Ravens(6-5).

Lets start with the AFC West battle and where that might go.
Broncos: @Chiefs(W), @Colts(L), Raiders(W), @Eagles(L), Chiefs(W). Finish 10-6
Chargers: @Browns(W), @Cowboys(L), Bengals(L), @Titans(L), Redskins(W). Finish 10-6
Given that they are even, and that, be my reckoning, they finish with the same division record, AND the same common game record. It comes down to AFC conference games to break the tie. Denver takes the Division title and SD are a 10-6 wildcard.

That leaves only one AFC wildcard still up for grabs… (we’ve already won out, giving us a 10-6 record overall and Jaguars and Titans aren’t good enough). Miami can still win four, but none of the other three can win more than three games.

Miami(5-6) Patriots(L), @Jags(W), @Titans(W), Texans(L), Steelers(W)
Jets(6-6) @Buccaners(W), Falcons, @Colts(L), Bengals
Steelers(6-5) Raiders(W), @Browns(W), Packers(L), Ravens(W), @Dolphins(L)
Ravens(6-5) @Packers(L), Lions(W), Bears(W), @Steelers(L), @Raidiers(W)

So there you have it. Everything just has to go exaclty as I have predicted and the Texans make their first playoff game in Team History.

by distant_texans_fan on Dec 4, 2009 4:41 AM CST reply actions

The Texans can't worry about all of that.

The only thing they can do is win and put themselves in a good situation. Jacksonville is a tough game and if they get by the Jaguars then the Texans become really interesting.

by TexansDC on Dec 4, 2009 1:35 PM CST up reply actions