Official 2009 AFC Playoff Picture
by TexansDC on Dec 27, 2009 6:56 PM CST
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PrintHere is your updated AFC playoff picture after Week 16.
1. Indianapolis Colts (14-1): AFC South Champions; home field advantage
2. San Diego Chargers (12-3): AFC West Champions; first round bye
3. New England Patriots (10-5): AFC East Champions; own Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Cincinnati - for now.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5): AFC North Champions
New York Jets (8-7): clinch 5th seed with a win over Cincinnati (better in common games than BAL & DEN, head-to-head win over HOU). A Jets win ensures a NYJ-CIN matchup in the 1st round.
Baltimore Ravens (8-7): clinch 6th seed with a win at Oakland (head to head win over DEN)
Denver Broncos (8-7): clinch wild card berth with a win over Kansas City plus NYJ or BAL loss [although if they got into a 2 team tie with Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh gets the spot] (better conference record than HOU)
Houston Texans (8-7): clinch wild card berth with a win over New England plus losses by 2 of the following teams: BAL, NYJ, or DEN (better in common games than PIT)
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7): clinch wild card berth with a win at Miami plus losses by 3 of the following teams: NYJ, BAL, DEN, or HOU
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8): clinch wild card berth with a win over Cleveland plus losses by 4 of the following: NYJ, BAL, DEN, HOU, and PIT
Miami Dolphins (7-8): clinch wild card berth with a win over Pittsburgh plus losses by all of the following: BAL, NYJ, HOU, JAC (Denver's game has no bearing on Miami)
So to recap: Houston win + 2 of the following 3 losing: Baltimore, Denver, or NY Jets = Wild Card berth.
EDIT: Yes, there are tons and tons of ways to get in. The Wild Card spots could be almost any combination of 2 teams up there (except if Miami got in; then it could only be Denver with them). I tried to spell out playoff scenarios without going overboard.
2nd EDIT: Figured out tiebreakers. Adjusted to tiebreakers.
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addition
Great sum up here. One addition: if the Steelers win, we would win a three way tie with the Jets/Steelers/Texans, so we wouldn’t even need the Jets to lose. One more out for us. We would then only need Baltimore or Denver to lose.
If you're using the Yahoo playoff generator
It hasn’t added in the Jets win over the Colts.
The Jets and Ravens simply need to win and they’re in regardless of the other outcomes.
NFL.com says that the Jets conference record is 6-5, so 7-5 with a win next week. In a three way tie between the Jets, Steelers, and Texans, wouldn’t they win based on that?
As I just updated,
The Jets have the tiebreakers because they went 3-1 against common opponents while Baltimore went 0-4 and Denver went 2-2. They also beat the Texans head-to-head. They have a better conference record than Pittsburgh.
Baltimore beat Denver head-to-head. Baltimore has a better conference record than Houston. Baltimore has a better division record than Pittsburgh.
Denver has a better conference record than Houston and Pittsburgh.
The Texans own the common opponent tiebreaker over Pittsburgh.
Namely the seeding goes
Jets, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, and Steelers.
If all 5 teams won and moved to 9-7 then nothing changes in the playoff scenario.
Damn
My bad. I had the wrong record for the Jets in conference. I thought they would be tied and force the next tie-breaker. You’re right. But at least they have Cincy, who has something to play for.
Even if we tie with the Jets
We still lose to them because of the head to head tie breaker.
They beat us week 1 remember?
Actually the Bengals dont have anything to play for. They can’t get a bye and they’ve already clinched a playoff spot. The best they could do would be to move from #4 seed to #3.
by newyorkjeffs on Dec 28, 2009 12:36 PM CST up reply actions
They do have the 3/4 thing...
…but more importantly, they would know who they would play based on what outcome.
However, if you read Yahoo! Sports’ Mike Silver…he’s reporting that Cincy’s gonna play for the win based on his text conversation with Marvin Lewis.
I can see it. Cincy hasn’t been sharp so they could use the momentum. Also, resting may not help. This team is fueled by emotion right now if they stopped…they may just let their grief overtake them. It’s good for them to stay focused on football….
the Bengals can play for their 2nd round matchup
I know its forward thinking, but if Cincy knows they can be 3 or 4 going into their game, they could play for who they play in both the first two rounds. If they are the 3 seed, they wont play the Colts til the AFC Champ. If they are the 4 seed, they may have to play the Colts in the divisional round. While they wont be looking ahead like that, they could be playing ahead.
"Every time you turn on ESPN you see Bama" - Earl Thomas' answer when asked what excites him most about the National Championship.
To all Houston sports fans, Houston is the 4th biggest city in America, there will be traffic on the way to your respective sports game. Come Early, Be Loud, Stay Late.
by TexasHoosier on Dec 28, 2009 5:32 PM CST up reply actions
: (
The texans put themselves in this hole…Man to think what could have been if Chris Brown didnt throw that pass or screw up the end of two games. And if Kris Brown forced overtime with those to kicks….
It's all moot.
Every team has games like that. Plus, the Texans would’ve only tied in most of those games which means a win was never a sure thing.
All the Texans can do is win their game and watch what happens.
by TexansDC on Dec 27, 2009 7:16 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Trust me
We do.
Colts? Control the ball for 45 minutes and give up nearly 30 points. We were in the lead with barely a few minutes left and the defense coughs it up.
Saints? Up 24-3 at one point, at home. Enough said.
Titans? Rally back to tie the game at 24s to force overtime (somehow) only to see a Henne interception and a ridiculous penalty cost us the game.
Bills? Well they’re just plain awful and we lost to them.
David A. Fuller, CPA, MST
2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion
by Dave.Phuller on Dec 28, 2009 12:25 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for sharing that with us.
Some people here think that the NFL or Durga is out to get us because it happens to us “ALL THE TIME.” We’re too focused with our team that we forget things like that happens to other teams too. Thanks for the reminder that it happens to everybody.
Look at the Steelers
They have lost all 7 games by less than 6 points.
Chicago and Cincinnati? Missed FGs.
The Browns had a game where they had 8 sacks against them.
The Chiefs won in OT against them.
The Raiders had a last minute drive. THE RAIDERS!
geez
anyone remeber week 1 CIN vs DEN when orton lobbed one up and hall could come up with it and after a few tips stokley came up with it and took it to the house…wat if that didnt happen…thats y coaches need to tell there teams that EVERY GAME is IMPORTANT and could change the playoff race…
DAMN CHRIS/KRIS BROWN/MYERS/WHITE
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Dec 27, 2009 9:24 PM CST reply actions
Congratulations, Texans
You won this game in the first half with tremendous play in all phases. Kris Brown didn’t even miss a kick! Your team, in all honesty, deserved this game far more than we did, even with our valiant second-half effort. The game was over from the start for reasons I won’t harp on, as I don’t wish to be a sore loser, but you still earned a big one over us. Again. For that, hats off to your team.
You were a great bunch of people, very intelligent, very honest, very down-to-Earth. I’d say quite humble and civil people indeed. It was wonderful getting to know any of you I may have conversed with over the past week, even in a football capacity, and wish the Texans the best in attempting their first ever playoff appearance.
If Schaub and the offense can play the Pats like they did today, and Lady Luck shines on you in Week 17, you should be a shoe-in.
David A. Fuller, CPA, MST
2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion
by Dave.Phuller on Dec 28, 2009 12:29 AM CST reply actions 8 recs
Thanks, Dave
You guys have some young talent in Miami. Chad Henne just may be the guy y’all have been searching for. I was really impressed by Henne. I feel like a lot of us were.
Good luck to you guys – whether that’s with the small playoff chances or the offseason. I have a feeling Miami’s window is just opening.
If things play out a certain way, we’ll be seeing you again next year.
I'm hoping that to be the case,
And maybe we can improve enough to finally pull one out then. Either way, that would be a great game once again.
David A. Fuller, CPA, MST
2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion
by Dave.Phuller on Dec 28, 2009 1:08 PM CST up reply actions
Thanks for the classy comments
One goo for you.
Proudly supporting the Qatar National Falconry Team since December 6, 2009.
by tehGrindCrusher on Dec 28, 2009 7:53 AM CST up reply actions
Anytime.
Thank you, sir.
David A. Fuller, CPA, MST
2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion
by Dave.Phuller on Dec 28, 2009 1:08 PM CST up reply actions
Goo'd
Thanks for coming by man. It was definitely another exciting game. It was fun talking to yall about football and other stuff and im pretty sure everybody here share the same sentiments. Oh and thanks for teaching us what goo’d is. It’s definitely goo’d stuff lol
Haha not my invention, so I can't take any credit
but you’re quite welcome, drop by any time.
David A. Fuller, CPA, MST
2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion
by Dave.Phuller on Dec 28, 2009 1:07 PM CST up reply actions
i can't believe
our playoff hopes are predicated on either a raiders or chiefs win. i guess all we can do now is beat the patriots and hope things play out our way. next week’s definitely going to be interesting
Finishing strong
Playoffs or not, a win against New England with the season on the line for both teams would be really big. Just being in it at the end is a major milestone for this team.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
okay...
If we win vs New England, and Baltimore wins at Oakland..
Cincy will face the opportunity to play against Texans/Denver if they win vs the Jets on Sunday Night or Baltimore if the lose to the Jets?
What do they want?
Die hard Texan fan from the heart of Denmark!
Cincy
Has lost to both the broncos and texans this season and thumped Baltimore twice, so I’m guessing they want to play Balt
You can't fix Dumb or being a VYFB
by Texans-Brocos on Dec 28, 2009 12:31 PM CST up reply actions
They lost to the Broncos by a fluke.
You don’t think they’d like to prove that was a fluke?
Mike Silver’s reporting/speculating that Cincy will play to win next week against the Jets. I believe it because resting wouldn’t help that team. Cincy needs to get some momentum, but they also are fueled by grief right now. Resting may let their grief overtake them…it may be better to focus and just get to work.
The corrilary to this is
The broncos won by the “Emaculate deflection” and it’s very hard for a team to beat another team 3 times in a season.
You can't fix Dumb or being a VYFB
by Texans-Brocos on Dec 28, 2009 2:05 PM CST up reply actions
this assumes
that a coach would tell his players, “We want to play Baltimore in the playoffs, so lets go out and lose this game.”
Motivation for this sounds fun, but its not practical.
They may rest/play their starters, but the team will still try to win.
Mount Cody in round 1
In the AFC yes
"Every time you turn on ESPN you see Bama" - Earl Thomas' answer when asked what excites him most about the National Championship.
To all Houston sports fans, Houston is the 4th biggest city in America, there will be traffic on the way to your respective sports game. Come Early, Be Loud, Stay Late.
by TexasHoosier on Dec 28, 2009 5:35 PM CST up reply actions
Cincy should play to win.
(If we beat the Pats) CIN could claim home-field advantage over NE with a victory over NYJ. If CIN loses to NYJ, then their potential matchup with NE in the AFC Championship game would be in Foxborro rather than Cincinnati. Why would any team not want to play for home-field advantage in a potential matchup with NE? In my book that’s incentive enough to play to win.
Sure....what-ifs, if only, and so on....
I just have one question. Are we tailgating or meeting at a sports bar and taking over the joint?
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
by Rip Jersey on Dec 28, 2009 2:04 PM CST via mobile reply actions
I'm out of town this week, but have fun guys,
You can't fix Dumb or being a VYFB
by Texans-Brocos on Dec 28, 2009 2:06 PM CST up reply actions
I vote we fire Kubes...
because all this playoff talk is pissing me off.
Stop being a good coach, asshole!
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
Someone made the compairison with Fisher
and they where right on, after 4.5 seasons fisher was doing a little worse than Koobs, and dare I say in a worse division. Same could be said for bill belichick, and shannahan sr. I think given those compairisons it is worth waiting till after next year to write off koobs. That said the mark for next year should be 10 + wins and atleast to the second round of the playoffs. Or he should be gone
You can't fix Dumb or being a VYFB
by Texans-Brocos on Dec 28, 2009 2:37 PM CST up reply actions
Damn TB,
where ya been?
I like how you pointed out the coach comparisons and how it applies to koobs now more than ever. When somebody would bring up that point, the"Fire Kubiak" bandwagon keeps dismissing the comparison.
Sorry ive been mia
lots going on and just now getting back to my priorities
You can't fix Dumb or being a VYFB
by Texans-Brocos on Dec 29, 2009 1:12 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Right...
because we hate making the playoffs around here. Just make it Superbowl or Retire right now, and be done with it.
Seriously, duder… you made excellent points until your last line.
You’re saying we let go of the only coach to ever (assumed since you’re saying SECOND round or gone) take us to the playoffs?? In his first ever head coaching gig/contract???
Please tell me that’s a typo.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
to me
its less about the end record and more about the division.
We can only play who the league tells us to, and I’m pretty sure we gotta play these same 3 teams in 3/8 of our games for the foreseeable future.
The Jags and tits weren’t their usual selves this season, and we mustered one victory. Whatever you want to say about the two Indy games, we lost. We don’t get to play what-if with those.
I think Kubiak is headin for a 2010 campaign. But a 1-5 or even a 2-4 next season would be tough to swallow. If they make the playoffs thats a huge trump card, and would factor into whether I would give him an extension.
But the division games need to be priority #1.
Mount Cody in round 1
1000000% Agree. Take care of business in the division.
"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."
The ROSENFAIL : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAKAKE-uq-8&feature=related
by TexansForever on Dec 29, 2009 11:00 AM CST up reply actions
Great Post TexansDC.
Unrelated question : Why did Frank Bush wait until last few games to start bringing Bonecrusher on blitzes ?
You are banned from Music City Miracles.
Happy Now Tits?
You are banned from Blogging The Boys.
Your guess is as good as anyone's Tim...
But the results have been great with back-to-back games with at least half a sack for Bonecrusher. I’d love to see how jacked up Pollard gets when he hears the play call.
Do you think Tom Brady wants any part of that?
I doubt it.
I’m hoping it’ll be RB by committee. Slaton, Moats and Foster. No need for any draft picks at RB.
by distant_texans_fan on Dec 28, 2009 5:05 PM CST up reply actions
Great observation DTF
I was thinking it before and I think it is proving out that) will not be of the “highest” of draft priorities. My thinking is that OG has to be the highest priority as, just look at what is there no. We still can’t say about Antoine Caldwell, but I think we can all agree that the rest of the bunch all grades below NFL average. Add in there that Chester Pitts is coming off a serious and possibly career anding injury, there is absolutley no depth at that position. I also think we can say that the seriously deficient running game can be traced to the interior line. We need an OG. No, we need two, thank you.
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
by Rip Jersey on Dec 28, 2009 7:39 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
G/C is a priority
And I think the way we’ve won lately will push us into a later draft selection of a G like Mike Iuapti of Idaho.
Based on a game and a half?
I would hazard to guess that the Texns have no clue at this point how the RB position will shape up next year.
"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."
The ROSENFAIL : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAKAKE-uq-8&feature=related
by TexansForever on Dec 28, 2009 5:23 PM CST up reply actions
i like what i saw in foster but...
maybe slaton was a one hit wonder and foster isn’t the answer next year then were screwed again i say we draft a power back maybe not in the first if we believe in foster but a back should be drafted.
I Hate You
A couple weeks ago
I was on the fire Kubiak band wagon. Believe you-me. I was hurt that we had been swept by the Jags, and by the Colts especially with such close games with both teams. Right now I think i will give Kubes one more season to show me what he’s got. But DAMN do we need some good draft picks for G, NT, and CB! let Dunta go! he whined and complained about being franchised, and then he is made to look like a 4’11" Freshman who wants to play Varsity TEXAS HS football all season. I mean come on Dunta! I think Steve Slaton, can get last years form back, but that is just me. I would be down for a RB by comittee in H-town, bc there aren’t many RBs who remind me of the good ole days of watching The Bus, Emmitt Smith, and our Home town hero Earl Campbell.
Go Texans!
Don't forget San Francisco can still get the 7th seed in the NFC, also referred to as the "Willis Seed". Which would be vulgar except in this case it is "Holy".
"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."
The ROSENFAIL : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAKAKE-uq-8&feature=related
by TexansForever on Dec 29, 2009 7:35 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
Remember last season?
In order for Philly to get into the playoffs this had to happen:
Chicago had to lose to the Texans
Tampa Bay had to lose to Oakland
Philly had to beat Dallas.
Yeah, that all happened.
"There's two kinds of coaches, them that's fired and them that's gonna be fired." ~ Bum Phillips
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