Why I'm Thinking About The Unthinkable
I covered several different draft strategies and prospects in the last few weeks, and I’ll do it many more times before April 25th. There is one strategy that I'm contemplating, however, that has been hardly covered on this site: Trading up. Calm down. At least do me the favor of reading the rest of the post instead of heading straight to the comment section to tell me how wrong I am.
The more I work it out in my mind, the more I’m faced with the likelihood that we’d have to be the receivers of some serious luck to get a defensive player worth taking at 15 instead of trading down. These prospects in my mind are Rey Maualuga, Malcolm Jenkins, Everette Brown and B.J. Raji. I honestly think that there is a strong chance that all four will be gone by the time our pick rolls around. So trade down, right? Not so fast.
The Washington Redskins have the 13th pick, just two picks before us. The burgundy and gold has a lot of needs, but they only have three total draft picks this year because Dan Snyder is a meddler, and a terrible one at that. Using a popular draft pick value calculation table commonly used by NFL front office personnel and coaches, we would probably have to give our 1st, 4th, and 6th round picks in exchange for their 1st. Even though Rick Smith and Gary Kubiak have shown a superior ability at drafting in the later rounds, anything after the 3rd round is somewhat of an educated guess, but the 'Skins would kill for the chance to take that guess.
Moving our pick from 15 to 13 doesn’t seem like a big difference, but it might be. Like I've said before, there is likely going to be at least 7 offensive players taken before our first selection at 15. Washington is not likely to take one of those 7, and New Orleans definitely will not, so it’s more accurate to say that there will likely be 7 offensive players selected in the first 12 picks. Think about that. There might be a big difference between the 8th overall rated defensive player and the 6th.
New Orleans is the other reason to consider this strategy. They are in the same boat that we are; they don’t really have any holes on offense big enough to justify drafting a player for that side of the ball, but they have enough on defense that they will probably select the best defensive player available. That means that the Saints are very likely to snake “our guy” right before we have the chance to grab him. That would suck.
The practice of moving up a couple of picks has been successful in recent drafts, especially in the first round. Jay Cutler, Santonio Holmes, Darrelle Revis, Joe Flacco, Shawne Merriman, Jammal Brown, Kellen Winslow, Shawn Andrews, and Steven Jackson were all picked by teams that traded up to get them in the last five years. What do all of those players have in common? They’ve all had Pro Bowl seasons (except for Holmes, but I figure a Super Bowl MVP performance is just as good). There are examples of picks that weren’t worth trading up for, but that list is much fewer in number than the one I just read off. Also, in the same time frame I used for my sample above, there have only been 12 Pro Bowlers selected in the 4th and 6th rounds.
Note: I know Joe Flacco will not be playing in the Pro Bowl this year, but he will be accompanying his unibrow ,who will be.
The only way this tactic even comes close to making sense though is if there is a player there who is worth making the sacrifice. He has to be a player that you believe will be a cornerstone of your defense for years to come, a rare talent that only comes along every few years, ala Troy Polamalu, who Pittsburgh traded up to get. I believe Raji won’t make it out of the top ten, and Brown isn’t nearly enough of a sure thing to forgo picking in the 4th and 6th round. Maualuga is almost worth it because I believe in DieHard Chris’s argument for moving DeMeco to the outside, but in the end I don’t think you can justify trading up for a player that is going to move one of the best ILB in the game to OLB no matter how awesome it would be.
So that leaves us with Jenkins. I can’t tell you how happy I would be to see this kid in Steel Blue next year. No, I don’t want another corner, I want a SAFETY. He has great instincts in coverage, runs a blistering 40 reported to be in the 4.3 range, and also has great open field tackling skills. He is listed at 204 lbs. which is light, but even if adding weight slows him down to the 4.4 range, is that terrible? Imagine having a 6’1” ball-hawk roaming the middle of our secondary. It gives me shivers. I know some of you are probably sick of me professing my love for this guy, but seriously this is ridiculous (that one didn’t have sound so here’s another one. Oh and if you were wondering what happens when I watch that those clips, wonder no more).
In closing, I know my man crush for Jenkins is ridiculous, but my lingering sexual confusion doesn’t mean I’m wrong. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea for Rick Smith to have the deal on the table, that way if by the time Washington went on the clock and if Jenkins was still there, we could pull the trigger. I think he’s worth a 4th and 6th round pick. Ok, thank you for being patient. Now tell me why I’m wrong.
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39 comments
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Comments
Chris at Houston Diehards
touched on this a little bit, and I think that this post, when combined with his post make a lot of sense. Basically, we don’t know if Molden is going to be available for OTA’s, which is going to make it harder for him to progress at CB. On top of that, because he barely got a chance to play CB this past year, we don’t know if he’s going to be an elite cover corner, or just a nickel/dime back.
On top of our potential need at CB, we still have a need at FS. I think that Eugene Wilson did pretty well at FS this past year, but there is lots of room for improvement.
If we could manage to get Malcom Jenkins, we would have an insurance policy at CB, at least until we know what we’ve got with Antwaun Molden, and at the same time, we would have our FS of the future. I think that would be a great 1st round pick.
by Tailgate Andy on Feb 2, 2009 11:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I am biased
If Colt McCoy makes you look this silly, your tackling ability must be called into question. I still love him as a cover guy, though, and say that if he’s there, take him.
by BigTexBD on Feb 2, 2009 11:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
If you’re going to (A) draft Jenkins and (B) move a cornerback to free safety, why not move Dunta there? He probably wouldn’t be terribly happy about it at first, but if we paid him as a starting corner he wouldn’t really have too much to bitch about (unless there’s lots of incentive pay involved) – he is going to receive his contract before the draft, after all.
And there’s no shame in moving to safety. Some guy named Ronnie Lott did it.
Plus he’d have a little less stress on his leg, he’s getting older and therefore slower, and we know Dunta can lay the wood.
Jenkins is leaps and bounds ahead of every other corner prospect in the draft. There are no qualms about his speed, and he’s been the best cover corner in college football for two years in a row. He’s as ready at that position as you’re going to find in this draft. He’s not like Antrel Rolle a few years ago where everyone was talking about him as a free safety but you knew a team would try to play him as a corner; Jenkins IS a corner.
At any rate, I endorse your trading up idea, but I would counter that the old draft value chart is falling out of style if I remember reading correctly. It’s certainly a good starting point for looking at what’s possible, and your point about Washington’s needs still holds, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on it being a 4 and a 6. As you said, New Orleans might be in a position where it has to offer Washington a better package in order to hedge against us taking the draft spot.
Good idea, though.
by socctty on Feb 3, 2009 12:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Dunta to safety
The problem with that is – he’d have to change the entire way he plays football. There’s no way that his frame could handle the violence of that position unless he dialed down his level of aggressiveness. He already hits like a guy who’s bigger than he actually is – and he’d have to do it a lot more often as a safety. I think it’s a case of asking a leopard to change his spots. It’s not just a position change – it’s an entire mentality change.
Chris - www.HoustonDiehards.com
by HoustonDiehards on Feb 3, 2009 1:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Chris is absolutely correct here
Dunta is a fierce tackler, but he is simply not big enough to handle the physical demands of the position. The Texans are in a tough situation with Dunta. I would like to believe that Dunta will be able to rehab himself so that he will regain enough of his quickness to once again be an elite CB. If he does not, however, then he is not worth elite money and if some team makes a crazy money offer for him, we should take the compensatory pick (a #1 I am guessing) and move CB to the top of the priorities for the draft. The elite teams in the league do not make the mistake of overpaying veterans who are past their peak years. We would miss his leadership and charisma greatly, but managing the salary cap is a bitch.
by oiler-texan diehard on Feb 3, 2009 8:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I just realized that we get no compensation if we don't sign Dunta, because he is an UFA
Thanks for not flaming me for my stupidity. That makes the Dunta decision even more difficult, and franchising him an option that we might have to use if we can’t agree on $$$
by oiler-texan diehard on Feb 4, 2009 6:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Dunta to safety
I’m not arguing that Dunta to safety is a move we should make; I’m arguing that if you are committed to such a move and are drafting Jenkins, it makes more sense to me to move Dunta there as a free safety than it does for Jenkins. But your point about his size is definitely valid.
At any rate, proven corners (and the best consensus best corner in the draft) are too valuable to just go throwing them in as free safeties all nilly-willy.
by socctty on Feb 4, 2009 12:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and with Fred Bennett and Malcom Jenkins playing corner, we’d probably have two of the tallest cornerbacks in the game. Marvin Harrison will probably get cut, and Reggie Wayne isn’t all that tall – shorter than Jenkins IIRC. Take your corner fade and shove it, Peyton!
by socctty on Feb 3, 2009 12:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Trading up, Jenkins, etc
I still think we need too much help on defense to trade up. If we finally get that elusive winning season in 2009, I might be ready to take on the notion.
That said, for me personally – the only two guys I would even consider trading up for right now are Maualuga and Raji. I think those guys are both going to be difference-makers as rookies.
Malcolm Jenkins – despite what I said about not drafting a CB in the first round – would be impossible to pass up at 15 (which we all know won’t happen) – but I still wouldn’t trade up for him unless we lose Dunta.
Here’s a thought about trading up – maybe it’s not so unlikely. Recall that this season we finally have a 2nd-round pick. If the Texans are willing to trade two second-rounders for a QB, who’s to say they wouldn’t give up a 4 and a 6 for a guy they might think is as important to the defense as Schaub is to the offense?
Again – I still don’t think we’re there yet… but it wouldn’t be a huge shock to me if their guy is attainable.
Chris - www.HoustonDiehards.com
by HoustonDiehards on Feb 3, 2009 2:12 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Count me as being against
…a trade up. We need to go down and get extra picks. We are so good at finding talent deep in the draft, and it’s so much better for our cap situation to do so, that going up seems to me to be the less-effective move.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Feb 3, 2009 7:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
yup
I’ve said before, there are almost no “sure things.” So lets keep all of our lottery tickets (and try to acquire more) and take all of our guesses into OTA’s and see what we come up with.
Please draft some defensive stars for the next DC.
by texanphil on Feb 3, 2009 9:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Makes sense to me; but trading up should only be used in my opinion in a case where you feel the player is a once in a lifetime game changing beast. If you trade up you have to be completly in love with the player, which transienttexan surely is with Mr. Jenkins. Hopefully for his sake the front office feels the same way.
P.S.- Thanks for the shot-out…Mr. Flacco’s Unibrow was worthy of being traded up for.
I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!
by drinkyourmilkshake on Feb 3, 2009 10:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Malcolm Jenkins to safety?????
I too have a huge amount of love for the CB from OSU but why in the world would you move him to safety? Would he even move positions like that? He is the best CB prospect in this draft class and will demand a lot of guaranteed money because of that and he would probably hold out for more if he knew they were going to move him to FS.
The idea of trading up to get him is a great move, but why not move Jacques Reeves. This would allow the stiff necked Reeves to play with his back to the endzone and possibly let him to make some big plays instead of giving them up.
Malcolm could be something special on this defense and should come in as easily the number two CB with his excellent speed and cover skills.
by Jeffrey.Q on Feb 3, 2009 11:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Reeves has the size and speed to handle the transition
but I am thinking that he does not have the physical nature for the run support that the FS position demands. If he had Dunta’s disposition, then it would be worth considering, but I think not.
by oiler-texan diehard on Feb 3, 2009 9:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He has shown some ability to tackle well and he will hit, his cover skills are very suspect which is why at corner he seems like an extreme liability. When he played in dallas he shifted over and played center field some and was somewhat good at it. I just think he is a much better player when he doesn’t play with his back to the play and is allowed to use his athletic ability.
by Jeffrey.Q on Feb 4, 2009 10:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
dunno...
He was pretty bad in Dallas, when asked to cover deep thirds. Said he preferred to be in man-press, which is why he showed to be a little better with us than he was there. Obviously, this is a red flag on moving reeves to S. I agree that he COULD, theoretically, do it, based on what we see as his strengths.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
by beefy on Feb 4, 2009 11:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
the Texans might very well look a Larry English. This is obviously very preliminary, but he is an undersized DE (250ish), who I read held up against the run very well at the Sr. Bowl. He is from a small school (same school as Burner Turner), but from everything I have read always came to play against the big boys. McShay currently has him going to Atlanta at 24. I don’t think it is a stretch that with a good combine, he could catapult into the top 15, and right to us at 15. If he don’t have the best combine, we could trade back to around the same place as last year (26), and he could possibly be there as well. I am hedging myself on Larry English FWIW.
by Triple347 on Feb 3, 2009 1:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Shrager from Fox
has English at 18 to the Bears, so my theory is not unreasonable at all!
by Triple347 on Feb 3, 2009 2:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
if we can move up
id take orakpo…
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Feb 3, 2009 4:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm Glad
This post sparkd some conversation. Everyone has their own opinion on what’s best, and none of us are “wrong”. Allow me to retort.
I don’t think Orakpo will be there at 13. Unless Maybin or Brown has an insane Combine, Orakpo will be gone. In fact, even if he’s not the first DE selected I would asume that he wouldn’t be there.
Larry English isn’t a bad idea, but not at 15. I would be ok if the Texans selected him if they traded down.
As for Jenkins, I admit I could be going out on a limb with saying we should draft him to play S, but I’m not alone. Several people are of the opinion he’ll make a better S than a corner in the NFL, and I think you’ll hear that a lot at the Combine. I personally don’t know what his feelings are about playing safety, but why not? He’d be a rookie so he shoud be less of a prima donna, and supposedly Jekins has a good attitude and has a do what is best for the team mentality. Also, it’s not like there isn’t any prestige at the position with players lie Polamalu and Reed getting the kind of attention they got this year.
This isn’t from Mel Kiper or Mike Moyock, but you’ll find a lot of draft scouting reports that say the same thing as this site: http://cdsdraft.com/profile.php?id=1232. Like I said, you’ll be hearing this a lot more when it comes to Jenkins.
Let's get the Texans a better fight song.
by Jake on Feb 3, 2009 7:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
BTW
I’ve been reading up on your boy English, and a lot of people are speculating that he’ll probably be best as a 3-4 OLB.
Let's get the Texans a better fight song.
by Jake on Feb 3, 2009 8:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
No doubt
But he is also right in the range of what Kollar has historically looked at size-wise for his 4-3. he is definitely a tweener, from what little bit I know of him. I mean I certainly could be wrong, but he is just an off the radar, out of left-field type that I enjoy speculating about.
by Triple347 on Feb 3, 2009 9:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A lot of the "DE" prospects
in this draft class, to me, are really just Cover-2 DEs or 3-4 OLBs. Everette Brown and Aaron Maybin are in that group. I’d be pretty disappointed at this point to see us draft one of these supposed “tweener” guys.
by socctty on Feb 4, 2009 12:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was asked to participate in a mock
One of those things where a blogger for each team picks for their team…
My pick is up, there is no trading – and EVERYONE is off the board. Orakpo, Raji, Maualuga. So I’m kind of at a loss. Everette Brown scares me – but he’s also off the board. The highest DE on the board is Maybin who I don’t like. Sigh.
Chris - www.HoustonDiehards.com
by HoustonDiehards on Feb 4, 2009 1:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot to add – even Laurinitis and Cushing are off the board. Not that I want either, but I’m just giving an idea of how slim the pickins are. :(
Chris - www.HoustonDiehards.com
by HoustonDiehards on Feb 4, 2009 1:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If all the defensive talent is off the board, and you can't trade down go BPA offense or defense
Moreno is a good looking RB.
by oiler-texan diehard on Feb 4, 2009 12:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No way will I pick a RB
With all our defensive problems. I don’t think Moreno has first-round value anyway.
Chris - www.HoustonDiehards.com
by HoustonDiehards on Feb 4, 2009 12:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I am guessing you are not still on the clock
can you let us know how the top 15 picks went in your mock?
Thanks
by oiler-texan diehard on Feb 5, 2009 9:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree completely that he could be a fine safety
but I just don’t see him dropping to 13. I also think we are not yet ready to give up a #4. We still have too many holes to plug on the defense.
I don’t see him getting past Green Bay, and then New Orleans, but if the unthinkable happens and he drops to 15 then it is a no brainer. Drafts always seem to have a run on a particular position, and have a few 1st round mystery picks. This could be our year to get lucky.
by oiler-texan diehard on Feb 3, 2009 9:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ehh, I don't like sitting at 15
Where we are at, I don’t think we will get good value for our pick. Trading up to 13 (our most likely spot to go to) would probably net us Jenkins. That, I don’t mind. He is the best defensive back available in this draft and, other than Taylor Mays, probably would be the best DB available in 2010. I also wouldn’t mind if we trade up and take Maualuga. He looks like he will be an impact linebacker, and would be the best ILB in 2010 if he was there.
Heres where things get weird.
I don’t want to trade up and take Raji or Everette Brown (and maybe Orakpo).
Here’s why.
The 2010 DT class is stupid deep. There are 6 legitimate ( at the moment ) first round prospects in Marvin Austin, Gerald McCoy, Terrance Cody, Demarcus Granger, Geno Atkins, and Vince Ohgobasse.
Other than Atkins, all could play NT. Terrance Cody especially.
I understand the desire to win now, but I don’t think we should bet the farm on one player when there are going to be a WHOLE bunch of comparable players available next year.
The same goes with the DE class. RIght now, the 2009 DE class is basically OLB’s (Rak and Brown might be able to bulk, but they would be projects).
2010, we are looking at 3-5 first round defensive ends. Everson Griffen, 6-3, 265 and runs a 4.58, George Selvie, Carlos Dunlap (you know him from the national championship game), the 6-6, 290lb DE that runs a 4.7, Greg Hardy, 6-5 260, runs a 4.7, and Brandon Graham 6-3 270 with a 4.7. All of those guys except maybe Selvie are better fits to play LE in my mind.
That means of 32 picks, there are probably 9-12 first round DEFENSIVE LINEMAN. Throw in people you know are gonna get drafted first round, Taylor Mays, Sam Bradford, Arrelious Benn, Jermaine Gresham, Russell Okung, Ciron Black, Donovan Warren, Eric Berry, Brandon Spikes, possibly Martez Wilson and Trevard Lindley, and some others.
That basically means that we are going to be able to pick up a first rate DE, DT, or possible safety anywhere they fall in the 2010 draft. It just seems right now that 2009 favors offense – 4 great OTs, 2 good QBs, 2 Great RBs, 2 good RBs, 3 great WR and a great TE, as opposed to 2 great LB’s, 1 great DT, 2 good DE’s, 3 great/good corners, and no real first round safety talent.
I understand this is 4 am ranting, but if we are looking to the future, use right now to lock up our guys, trade down for 2010 defensive picks, and bite the bullet and take one of the mid level defensive players. Other than Raji, Maualuga, and Jenkins, I don’t think any of the players would be instant awesome improvement, and Jenkins and Maualuga come with some question marks.
I am not going to dictate what exactly we should do, because anything happens on Dday, but I am getting more and more set on trading down, solidifying preferably the secondary, and then waiting til 2010 to take an impact DL.
by Riott on Feb 4, 2009 4:14 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
As always your research and analytical skills are top notch
but I just don’t think Smithiak can go public and admit that they are focusing more on winning in 2010 than in 2009. Trading down for extra picks next year would be a tacit admission of just that, and an appropriate strategy given these circumstances for a franchise that presently has all the pieces in place to be a playoff contender in ’09. Fanbase has been very patient and supportive for 7 years without a winning season, much less a sniff at the playoff hunt. We are hungry and want Smithiak to do everything possible to upgrade the D so we can be playing meaningful games in December/January.
Anything less would be a huge disappointment.
by oiler-texan diehard on Feb 4, 2009 12:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I am definitely NOT saying don't play to win in 09 this offseason
I was just saying, don’t be like the Jaguars and trade away your whole future for a shot at one player with the idea that it is your only hope. I really think we can get impact players in important positions (LB, S) without giving up our future and perhaps gaining MORE. Thats all. I will never support intentionally sucking, and I want us to be playing meaningful games in December/January just as much as anyone else. I want us to do it for a long period of time as well.
by Riott on Feb 4, 2009 3:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's the age-old question...
Of, do you want to potentially SIGNIFICANTLY upgrade one position, or slightly upgrade 2 or 3? What are you risking if that significantly becomes not so significant, or something?
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
by beefy on Feb 4, 2009 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was just trying to say that I think this year is important for Smithiak to show progress
and toward that end, getting extra picks this year would probably be better than deferring the extra picks to 2010. I really don’t think that Smithiak would consider trading up at all. We still have too many holes on D and not enough quality depth at almost all position groups on O & D.
by oiler-texan diehard on Feb 4, 2009 5:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Merriman
was not traded up for. He was taken with the first round pick that the Chargers got from the Giants in the Manning-Rivers trade the year before. Meaning the Chargers traded DOWN to get that extra pick.
Yay, sports.
by MDC on Feb 9, 2009 11:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

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