Reading Between The Lines

by Tim on Feb 4, 2009 10:38 AM CST in News Comment 33 comments

If you haven't already read it, John McClain's column in today's Chronicle was chock full of discussion points that bear further analysis. The ones that caught my eye:

The Texans have every intention of re-signing [Dunta] Robinson, but it won’t be easy. He’s going to cost them more guaranteed money than any player has received other than Mario Williams.

Would you pay Dunta Robinson more guaranteed money than anyone this side of Super Mario? No specific numbers are given, but we know that The Corpse Formerly Known As Anthony Weaver got a signing bonus of $12,500,000.00. Mario Williams, of course, got $26,500,000.00 in guaranteed dough. For the purpose of this exercise, let's split the difference in Weaver and Mario. Would you give Dunta $19 mil in guaranteed money? $15 mil? Or would that money be spent better elsewhere? Like in locking up DeMeco Ryans, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton, etc.?

Speaking of Williams, he’s preparing for Sunday’s Pro Bowl with teammates Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. Williams invited the other defensive linemen as well as former defensive line coach Jethro Franklin and new defensive coordinator Frank Bush to come as his guests. A very classy move.

Classy indeed, though I wish he invited all defensive lineman except Travis Johnson.

Since Smith and coach Gary Kubiak were hired, they’ve signed a lot of free agents. They’re not averse to spending money on a player they think fills a need, but they won’t be blowing $30 million guaranteed on another team’s player, so you can forget about them pursuing Tennessee defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth and Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers.

I don't think any of us harbored any illusions that there would be any big splashes in free agency made, so this isn't really surprising.

Expect the Texans to sign seven or eight free agents, but none will break the bank. Their philosophy is to reward their players. That sets a good example for other players: Play and get paid.

Someone needs to scrawl that last sentence on Steve Slaton's locker several hundred times.

As far as their needs in free agency, they’re the same as the draft. The Texans need a pass rusher or two, preferably an end. Because Williams is comfortable on the right side, undersized ends don’t fit their needs. They need an end who can play over the tight end and rush from the left side.

Hmmmm...no undersized defensive ends, huh? Makes you wonder who the Texans would even consider at DE at No. 15, doesn't it? Most, if not all, of the candidates would probably fit that "undersized" mold.

Because of the uncertainty over Diles and Adibi, Smith and Kubiak need to add an outside linebacker. Keep in mind that it’s not out of the question that they will use their first-round pick on one because it’s a talented position in this draft.

Smoke and mirrors, designed to throw everyone who reads it off the scent? Or a hint that Smithiak has come to the realization that the best defensive player available at No. 15 will likely be a linebacker?

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Dunta and Undersized DEs

About Dunta – you should absolutely prepare yourself for him to get $20-23 million guaranteed. I would be SHOCKED if he only asked for 15 or 19. I don’t think it’s too much for him, either – as you’ll see when I make my plea for his re-signing soon.

As far as the DE thing – I just think McClain is suffering from lack of research here. Like Socctty, I’m concerned that the likes of Maybin and Ev. Brown are undersized, but 1 – every scouting report I read says that they can put on bulk without losing speed and 2 – Kollar had great success with Aaron Schobel, who’s physical stature is identical to both Maybin and Brown – and I think a speed-rusher is absolutely something he can work with. McClain seems to want another mauler-type power DE like Mario, but if Kollar did wonders with Schobel, a lighter speed-rusher – why would we be against picking up a guy in that mold?

Problem is – I’m just plain terrified of Brown, Maybin, and even Orakpo.

Chris - www.HoustonDiehards.com

by HoustonDiehards on Feb 4, 2009 11:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

The DE question is...

Can these guys play on the TE side? Is that what Shoebel did? I honestly don’t know. Because, if not, it’s apples/oranges. We’re looking for a guy who can play on the strong side, which is why “undersized” plays a HUGE role. If the guy’s getting manhandled on first and second down, his quickness and pass-rushing skills are moot. Or mute. Whichever.

Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.

by beefy on Feb 4, 2009 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I believe its "moo"

like a cow’s opinion…

Please draft some defensive stars for the next DC.

by texanphil on Feb 4, 2009 4:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone in the NFL, Steelers included, would want a Mario Williams type end

there just aren’t many around like him though.

Johhny Mac must not have been paying attention when Kollar says he likes faster, not necessarily, bigger DE’s. I too don’t know if Schoebel was over the TE, but he’s around 6’4" 245 and did well with Kollar.

I think-hope we will lock up Dunta long term, but we have to be careful not to overpay. The hardest part may be to project what % of pre-injury Dunta will be playing CB this September. The decision would be difficult even if we had until September to decide. Reality is that the decision has to be made soon. IF he is projected to be all the way back then he would be worth the 19-20 million that Tim/Chris suggested. If he is still a step slow though, that’s when it will get tough. I would expect that at least one team will take a run at signing him and leave the Texans with their toughest personnel decision in franchise history. Match it? Franchise him? or let him go and take the compensatory draft pick? That’s what Smithiak get paid the big bucks for.

by oiler-texan diehard on Feb 4, 2009 1:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Dunta...

Any potential suitor he might have is going to want to put him through some testing, so I think we should do the same. Put him out on the practice field with Ray Rhodes and ask Andre3K to do us a solid by running routes against him. That should let everyone know exactly what Dunta we’d be potentially signing. Not sure if that’s do-able, though.

Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.

by beefy on Feb 4, 2009 1:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You bring up an intersting point.

I think that Dunta did an outstanding job of rehabbing to get where he did this season. I have no doubt whatsoever that he will continue to condition himself like the true professional that we know him to be. He will go at it 100. I would assume that he is training under the supervision of the Texans, sans both the Trainer and the S & C Coach, because I think standard player contracts have not yet expired. This would mean that the Texans should have full knowledge about his physical status, and be in the best possible position to put together an offer. Based upon his last game, he was no where near 100 preinjury form. Where is he now? How much more can he progress by September? It’s the $20 million question that the Texnas have to answer.

by oiler-texan diehard on Feb 4, 2009 3:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

my bad, no compensatory picks for UFA's, and Dunta is unrestricted

by oiler-texan diehard on Feb 4, 2009 6:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Dunta and money.

There are three options for dealing with Dunta – two of which I do not think are worth the risk, and one that is the most logical thing to do.

One: Sign Dunta for stupid money that he feels he’s entitled to and would likely command on the market. I’m very much against this for a few reasons. Signing Dunta in any case is a huge risk… he’s still coming off a horrific injury. On top of that, no matter how much it set our hearts aflutter to see him on the field… he was NOT good this season. He contributed equally to the disaster that was our secondary. We also don’t know if he’ll ever fully recover. Do we want to get LaVarr Arrington’ed? Pay big money for a was-good, now-injured, hope-he’s-good-again player only to be on the hook for a crapton of money? No we do not.

Two: Let Dunta walk. This is an equally bad idea because… as optimism and hope command… Dunta might very well return to form and be the beastly CB we all know and love. If that’s the case, we let him walk for nothing, weaken our already anemic secondary, and rue the day God cursed us as Texans fans.

I realize one and two are two sides of the same coin – and as a devoted and emotionally scarred Houston sports fan I’m convinced that (a) we let him walk and he becomes awesome, or (b) we sign him for stupid money and he continues to be all bark and no bite. Which leads to three…

Three: Franchise him. Just f*ing do it. I realize it might well piss of Dunta, but that’s the way this business is run kid. He needs to know that his injury was something many players wouldn’t come back from, and his play on the field didn’t exactly scream “Pay the man!” So franchise him. If he proves to be top CB material next season, bite the bullet and pay him the silly money. (Yes I realize he might be angry enough to test the market – but I don’t think that risk outweighs the risk of options one or two.) If he’s sub-par (as I fear he will be) there are two possibilities: you sign a mediocre CB to mediocre money, or you cut your loses on one season and know that you at least gave him a chance.

by DisplacedTexan on Feb 4, 2009 1:33 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

I'm not sure about your evaluation of Dunta's defensive contribution

1. Our defense was horrible… through the first 9 games or so. Then we were very much better than average. We were downright good, with only a couple lapses.

2. Bush said the reason for the turnaround was due to Dunta’s return. With Dunta’s free agent status, Bush did nothing but hurt our chances for signing him on the cheap with this comment, so it was not motiviated by anything except his truthful evaluation of our defense.

So while I saw some plays where he didn’t appear to be his usual self, I wouldn’t agree that he “contributed equally to the disaster that was our secondary.” Bush should know better than any of us who helped and who hurt us.

Please draft some defensive stars for the next DC.

by texanphil on Feb 4, 2009 4:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hard to argue, but

I just don’t like the idea of setting that kind of precedent. I gaurantee that the Texans players talk about what is going to happen with Dunta much more than we do, which is saying something. One of the reasons I was ok with the Bush promotion was because he was a player favorite while still being demanding. Our franchise hasn’t been great since it’s inception, but it has done things the right way. I would hope we continue that in the case of Dunta.

What’s the worst case scenario? You pay big money for a mediocre corner. What we saw this last season is as bad as Dunta will ever be. If he improves slightly or not at all from that level after we sign him to a big payday, that would suck. In my opinion, however, it would suck een more to plant the seed of dissention in our locker room. If they sgn him and he plays at his old level, Smith looks like a genius. If he doesn’t improve, he looks loyal. Let’s also not forget that we can sign him with the notion that 2010 might be an ucapped year which means if you have to cut him, yes you paid him a good chunk of money but it won’t cause any long term damage.

Let's get the Texans a better fight song.

by Jake on Feb 4, 2009 7:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

“You pay big money for a mediocre corner.” sounds like a very bad worst case scenario to me. The names Todd Wade and Anthony Weaver are still fresh in my mind. I don’t understand where this notion that the franchise tag will tear asunder the locker room has originated. It’s part of the business – and I’d rather my GM made shrewd business moves than proved his “loyalty” when it was detrimental to the team overall.

And following up on that last point, how does Smith look loyal if he signs Dunta to a big time contract and then cuts him the very next season? That sends an even worse message. Besides, just because the year is uncapped doesn’t mean we don’t “pay out that much money.” The entire problem is that Dunta wants major guaranteed money that I don’t think he’s entitled to.

For the first time in as long as I can remember, we’re not in cap hell this offseason. I want to keep it that way.

by DisplacedTexan on Feb 5, 2009 8:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with DT on this

This is one of the two situations that the Franchise tag was meant for (the other being an Asomugah/Haynesworth type thing where you can’t get the long-term deal done but you sure as shit can’t let the guy walk). Dunta doesn’t just want guaranteed money, he wants CB1 guaranteed money. Right now, all we’ve seen is that he was pretty hit-or-miss playing the NICKEL corner spot (for the most part). Loyalty aside, it would be beyond ridiculous to pony up $20MM guaranteed just because you like the guy and he’s been here for a while. If you tag him, you are basically telling him, “hey, we want you around, but we have to make sure you are going to be 100%; show us you are and you’ll get your payday in a year.”

BESIDES, it’s not like the Franchise tag is cheap—-Dunta will get the average of the TOP FIVE CB salaries in the league. That’s a nice check for an audition year.

Yay, sports.

by MDC on Feb 5, 2009 8:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Both of these points are valid

I see what you’re saying. Also, the main problem with my line of thinking is that the coaches are going to have little to no interaction with him until the deadline to declare the franchise tag. Maybe it is better to franchise him. Besides, if we do take a step forward next year and are in contention for the playoffs, is franchising him going to piss him off to the point that he’s going to walk away from a team he’s been with from the start that is now finally starting to win. I still have a bad taste in my mouth every time I say franchise him, but maybe it is a smarter decision. Good points.

Let's get the Texans a better fight song.

by Jake on Feb 5, 2009 9:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

By the way - I NEED TO SAY THIS

For weeks now, I’ve been saying that Dunta will probably want $20-23 million in guaranteed money… specifically – I’ve been using that 20-23 range.

Today in McClain’s chat – right off the bat, he said the same thing, that Dunta will want 20-23 million.

I know a lot of you know me and know my blog and my writing, but I just want to say that I DID NOT get that figure from John McClain. I based it mainly on Corey Webster and other similar CB deals – so I’m not aping McClain.

I know none of you would think I would do that – but I just feel compelled to say it out loud, LOL

Chris - www.HoustonDiehards.com

by HoustonDiehards on Feb 4, 2009 2:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Pancakes.

In his defense, he’s been bringing some real information over the last 6 weeks or so. Parsing his chats, you can usually find a few good tidbits of information.

No idea why this is. I’m scared, frankly.

by DisplacedTexan on Feb 4, 2009 2:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Point in case:

“John McClain: I grew up as a diehard Cowboys fan in Waco. I got over it around 1980. I don’t hate the Cowboys. I actually like them. It’s their arrogant, obnoxious, prime donna, living-in-the-past fans in Houston that stir up so much venom. But they’re like mosquitos, traffic and crime; we just have to get used to them. I did decades ago.”

That shit is GOLD!

by DisplacedTexan on Feb 4, 2009 2:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

For the record...

Many of you know I’m from and live in Waco, and I would like to state publicly that this commentor was not, and is not the beefy you all know and loathe.
Now continue skating in the regular direction.

Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.

by beefy on Feb 4, 2009 4:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wait...

That was PANCAKES saying that??

Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.

by beefy on Feb 4, 2009 4:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We Know

If it had been you, the commenter would have dropped in some unprompted and irrational hatred of The University of Texas at Austin.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Feb 4, 2009 4:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Since you bring it up....

I truly TRULY hope that Orakpo-pimp IS available at 15, and we pass on him or trade down, then he ends up sucking in the league like so many of your other nutsacks. Just so I can hear all of you clownshoes whine and cry about it, and then have to admit we were right, once again, for doing it.
That, my good friend Tim, would warm my cockles in a way that you could never imagine.

(asterisk) I actually wouldn’t mind picking him in that spot, if he is, indeed, a true badass. That kind of stuff doesn’t make for a very dramatic post, though. Hell, I’d kinda sound like punkass MDC, if I did that!

Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.

by beefy on Feb 4, 2009 4:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting...

that you rip on me while biting my tendency to use explanatory footnotes.

Yay, sports.

by MDC on Feb 5, 2009 6:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

One more thing...

There is nothing irrational nor unprompted about my hatred of everything burnt orange.

Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.

by beefy on Feb 4, 2009 4:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice

I knew that if I gave you a shot to crap on the Horns, you wouldn’t disappoint. I can almost see the hate reverberating off the screen right now.

You can’t get me down, though. It’s Signing Day, and we all know what that means—another banner day to be a Horn.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Feb 4, 2009 4:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Can't argue there...

That Mack must take out his dentures to suck off every blue chipper across this great countryside to get the kind of love he does. Oh, well… Colt’s still on “staff” so he gets to share the “doodie” for one more off season.

Good God, I fucking hate Texas.

Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.

by beefy on Feb 4, 2009 4:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs