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How The Jay Cutler Saga Affects The Houston Texans

This weekend was a deceivingly busy one in the NFL.  First and foremost, Jay Cutler and Josh McDaniels stole the spotlight.  They are currently turning the Mile High City into the set of a bad soap opera, and the NFL media is eating it up with a spoon in this time of pre-draft lull.  So why should you care?  Because they could be indirectly foiling the Texans’ draft strategy.

Star-divide

What could previously be described as a tiff in Denver has spiraled into a full blown game of chicken.  Jay Cutler has formally asked for a trade from the Denver Broncos after a sit-down with new Head Coach Josh McDaniels.  This is the culmination of a dispute between the two that originated when McDaniels attempted to trade Cutler for Matt Cassel.  Cutler now claims that he can no longer trust McDaniels and thus cannot (or does not want to) play for the Broncos.

This is a divisive issue.  Some fans feel that Cutler is being a baby and McDaniels was in the right because no one is above being traded, while others feel that McDaniels hasn’t shown a lot of integrity through the whole endeavor.  I personally feel that neither is more wrong than the other because even though McDaniels was the catalyst, both men are equally to blame for escalating the situation.  No matter who you blame, however, the notion that McDaniels has shown an absence of intelligence in the way he’s handled the situation is difficult to dispute. 

McDaniels comes from the Belichick coaching tree, so he is trying to employ the same dictatorial tactics as his mentor.  He’s not the only one to attempt this course of action; Romeo Crennel, Charlie Weiss and Eric Mangini have all tried to emulate their former tutor with less than stellar results.  McDaniels is trying to step in to control his surroundings, but the problem that he failed to recognize is that Belichick gets away with running the Patriots the way he does because of one reason--winning.

As a brand new coach with little experience, McDaniels simply doesn’t have much leverage.  Here’s the simple truth, whether you hate Jay Cutler or not: He’s got an amazing amount of talent and produces on the field, so some team will gladly give him a starting gig.  You can’t say the same thing for McDaniels, because if he crashes and burns in Denver it is possible he’ll never get a chance to be a head coach in the NFL again.  Denver's offense wasn't the problem last year; their atrocious defense was.  So if the Broncos trade Cutler, they'll have to fix the defense AND hope to find a new QB just as good (but preferably better) than Jay Cutler.  McDaniels' best course of action is to simply tell Cutler what he wants to hear, and once he wins over some fans by actually tallying some victories, then he can take the kind of stance he’s taking now.  In McDaniels' defense, though, Bus Cook, who is Cutler’s agent, seems to be at the center of this and he has a history of involvement of contentious situations (see, e.g., Brett Favre).

My rant aside, the key takeaway is that if Cutlergate can’t be resolved, Denver might end up trading him.  Pat Bowlen publicly stated that a trade is possible, and when owners say things like that, you have to reclassify trade rumors as trade possibilities.  That provides one more QB for teams that need one.  That’s half of the problem as it pertains to the Texans.  The other half originated from another QB, although as opposed to the previously stated situation, this other QB's involvement was not akin to a child holding his breath until he gets his way.

Josh Freeman is rocketing up draft boards because of his good Combine performance and stellar Pro Day on March 12th.  Freeman is the biggest QB in the draft and has the arm to match, but until recently, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez were considered the cream of the crop of QB prospects in this year’s draft class.  Freeman has at least made it a three horse race, as evident by the fact that the quarterback coaches of Tampa Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, Seattle, and St. Louis were all in attendance to see Freeman work out.  The Jets' Offensive Coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer, held a private work out with Freeman today, and both General Manager Mike Tannenbaum and Head Coach Rex Ryan will join them tomorrow.  Also, the Jaguars quarterback coach will hold another private workout for Freeman next Monday.

All of this is bad news to Texans fans who were in favor of a trade down.  As I stated before, I thought our best shot to accomplish such a trade was to entice a team like Tampa or Detroit to leapfrog the Jets at 17 in order to snag Mark Sanchez, who I speculated was going to be the only viable QB choice left.  Now it seems as if the pool of feasible top-tier QBs (potentially) available on Draft Day has grown from two to four.  I would be shocked if more than two QBs will be selected before the Texans are on the clock with the 15th pick, and if Cutler is available via trade, our leverage for a trade would likely be gone.  Suddenly, it’s in the Texans’ best interest for Cutler and McDaniels to kiss and make nice. 

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Damn You, TT

I was just about to post along those same lines. Totally agree—Cutler wanting out only serves to increase the supply of available QBs, and I firmly believe that a team lusting after a QB was/is our best chance of moving down. My initial thought was that Sanchez could drop to us at 15, and one of the teams you mentioned (TB, NYJ, or (I really hope) DET) would give make us an offer to move up. Last year, we dropped from 18 to 26 and picked up a third-rounder; this season, I was hoping (1) DET would go OL with the first overall pick, (2) Stafford would go between picks 2 and 14, (3) Sanchez would still be there when we went on the clock, (4) a QB-needy team would get scared that Sanchez would be plucked before their turn came up and would make us an offer to move back.

Now, if Cutler does force his way out of Denver, it would presumably be to one of the teams that might have dealt with us. That hurts, though it could leave Denver in a position to be lusting after a new franchise QB.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Mar 16, 2009 10:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Disagree

It’s almost like a game of musical chairs, except everyone has a chair in the end. The only real variables are where Cutler ends up, and the compensation to Denver. Looks like there are five scenarios. One scenario is bad, two are good, and two are neutral for Houston:
1. Cutler stays in Denver. No effect on Houston
2. Cutler is traded to Nashville for Collins or Young, and draft choice(s). As pointed out in another thread, this is probably the worst case scenario for the Texans, and may not be so unlikely.
3. Cutler traded to Houston for Schaub and a draft choice, as discussed in the Chron fan blog. I like Schaub, but I like Cutler better. Assuming a reasonable draft choice is forfeited, this is the best case scenario.
4. Cutler is traded for draft choices, and the Broncos draft a QB. This increases the likelihood of other teams moving up to either to pick a QB, or another player who falls to us. Another winner for Houston.
5. Cutler is traded for a veteran QB and draft choices. Prolly no effect on Houston

by kozanack on Mar 16, 2009 10:58 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

what has cutler done

that Schaub hasn’t? this guy is acting like a little baby, hasn’t played well late in the season, and this is our best option? i couldn’t disagree more. let him take his ’i’ve been disrespected’ act someplace else

- tyler

by bullpen116 on Mar 17, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm firmly in the camp of

it doesn’t take a stud QB to run our system into the playoffs, but #3 is a terrible idea.

Huh?

Smushiak will take us to the playoffs in 2009.

by texanphil on Mar 17, 2009 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If this doesn't affect our draft plans

…then some other unforeseen event will. It’s like that butterfly theory thing.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 17, 2009 6:45 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't see the logic.

How does this affect our draft plan at all? According to your logic: Freeman’s good work-outs are a bigger problem for our desire to trade down than the availability of Cutler. If Cutler is getting moved, it’ll happen in the next few weeks (Detroit makes the most sense) and the draft will sort itself out accordingly.

Plus Denver’s loss puts them in the market for a QB… possibly through the draft. So this sudden increase in available QBs is directly related to a sudden increase in teams (notably Denver) needing a QB. So say Denver takes Sanchez at 12 – we now have trading partners if someone wants to grab Freeman (following the logic that his value is rocketing).

I’m of the opinion that Cutler’s desire for a trade has absolutely no bearing on anything relating to the Houston Texans unless he gets traded (somehow) to a division rival – which wont happen.

by DisplacedTexan on Mar 17, 2009 8:29 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The Wild Card In The Whole Thing Is Freeman

I can’t see a team trading up to 15 to get him. Assume Cutler does get traded to NYJ/TB/DET…those were the very teams we hoped to extort for our pick, assuming Sanchez or Stafford was on the board. If Cutler becomes one of said teams’ QB, that’s one less suitor.

And assume you’re right—DEN drafts Sanchez at 12. Well, then we’re really screwed. No Stafford. No Sanchez. Unless one of DEN’s spurned Cutler suitors doesn’t think Freeman will be there when they pick and lusts after him, our pick has drastically diminished value from the standpoint of being the spot QB-hungry teams need to target to get their guy.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Mar 17, 2009 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see the QB trade

I have a hard time seeing Stafford or Sanchez making it to 15 in the first place – teams just love QBs too much. (Det, Jax, SF, Buff, Was could all use QB upgrades.) Beyond that (as we’ve noted) Freeman is a viable late 1st, 2nd round option, so teams have less reason to trade up. I think the “trade-partner-for-QB” line of thinking is too narrow a view.

A trading partner will exist if there’s a player on the board a team wants really badly. Who’s that going to be at 15? We have enough trouble targeting one player that really has value there for us. I imagine a number of other teams / fans are having similar problems. If Maclin is there maybe TB wants to grab a WR. If Davis is there maybe the Eagles want to grab him for their secondary? It seems way too early to be speculating about any sort of trade-down scenarios.

But you’re totally right about Freeman – he’s a bit of a wild card. And if his legend grows over the next few weeks, it’ll shake up the draft.

by DisplacedTexan on Mar 17, 2009 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

For the life of me, I don't understand...

…what’s wrong with prostitution.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 18, 2009 2:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

A note from a fan of the once great and organized franchise at Mile High........

Things are so crazy at MHR right now that I don’t even want to visit. Big Blue Shoe at The Colts SB sight did a great analysis of the situation……..he calls it the "Poison of Bilecheat spreading its tenicles. ’

How Bowlen can let a 25 year old Pro-Bowl QB go when he pratically carried our entire team (without a running back at times and no defense) on his shoulders last year has all of us at MHR befuddled. I have a bad feeling that the dust from this debacle will settle as mud on my once proud team. To salvage my sanity I have slipped into La La Land and am ignoring the MSM completely.

Well, I can still root for your team again.

The best defense is a good offense!

by Mike Clark on Mar 18, 2009 3:05 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You're always welcome over here, Mike

And I don’t think anyone would consider you a bandwagon fan, considering how often you came by last season.

Anyway, good luck sorting things out over there. Shame that things have changed so quickly for the worse over there in Denver.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 18, 2009 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Crusher..........As positive as I tend to be some of us Bronco fans may still need a place to go.

I hope Jay and Josh work things out—but if not—It is the fans that make a franchise great. We will recover and we will love our team.

The best defense is a good offense!

by Mike Clark on Mar 18, 2009 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude, you're our good luck charm

You bring us far more luck than….say….me.

by bigfatdrunk on Mar 18, 2009 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No shock there

Your wife doesn’t even get lucky around you.

by DisplacedTexan on Mar 19, 2009 4:25 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

True

But that’s mainly by choice

So you're saying that now I have to think of some witty Sig that will be applicable across all the SBN sites? Go TexanHornStros!

by Shake on Mar 19, 2009 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

word in denver...

  being another bronco fan, and a texans fan (because of kubiak) word in denver is that mcdaniels wants to win now. we r looking for defense in the 1st rnd. so if he does get traded it would most likely be for a qb and a high draft pick. so its more likely theey wont draft a qb.
 
 thats where cleveland comes into play for brady quinn and there 2nd round pick. other rumors is that detroit is in play for cutler too. for the 20th pick over all and possibly a 2nd or 3rd rnd pick.
 
 who knows anything can happen on draft day.

 p.s. in my eyes, the broncos started going down hill when kubiac left. him and shanahan where amazing together

by s.west.railroader on Mar 19, 2009 7:08 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks For Stopping By, Railroader

Hope you make a habit of it. Would you guys really want Quinn as your QB? If I was you and Cutler leaving was a done deal, I’d want that No. 20 and a second or third rounder from DET. I’m ridiculously biased, but I think Chris Simms could be a decent stopgap for a year if he had to be.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Mar 19, 2009 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Quinn is a stopgap, too.

Only…you know…in a different way

Yay, sports.

by MDC on Mar 19, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Think about how I feel...

I am a long time Denver fan, but a die hard Texans fan…nonetheless I almost bought a Jay Cutler Jersey at the end of last season…thank god I did not

by schillingb on Mar 19, 2009 7:28 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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