Why Would The Texans Trade Up In The First Round Of The 2009 NFL Draft?
by Tim on Mar 23, 2009 9:47 PM CDT
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Way back on February 2nd, TransientTexan wrote a very nice post proposing what struck me then as a terrifying idea. Namely, he theorized that your Houston Texans could and should kick around the idea of trading up in the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft. Lest you think TransientTexan was going off half-cocked, consider this snippet from his post:
The practice of moving up a couple of picks has been successful in recent drafts, especially in the first round. Jay Cutler, Santonio Holmes, Darrelle Revis, Joe Flacco, Shawne Merriman, Jammal Brown, Kellen Winslow, Shawn Andrews, and Steven Jackson were all picked by teams that traded up to get them in the last five years. What do all of those players have in common? They’ve all had Pro Bowl seasons (except for Holmes, but I figure a Super Bowl MVP performance is just as good).
The thought of our beloved team snagging a player of that caliber is enough to make you lightheaded, isn't it? Well, allow me to sober you up.
In their illustrious (read: the opposite of illustrious) history, your Houston Texans have traded up just once in the first round. The year was 2004. After drafting Dunta Robinson with the tenth overall pick, the Texans acquired Tennessee's first round pick, which was 27th overall. The cost? Why, only Houston's second, third, and fourth round picks in the 2004 Draft! The player who commanded the ransom? Jason Babin.
I have a very clear memory of how I reacted to that trade. First, I threw a shoe at my television. Then I screamed unintelligibly. Then I wondered aloud why Charley Casserly would do this. Why would a team coming off a 5-11 season trade away any draft picks, much less three (3) prime picks? Then, when I calmed down a bit, I remember thinking that Jason Babin was going to have to have a helluva career to justify the bounty that was given up for him. Babin got a first-round contract. The Titans got Travis LaBoy, Randy Starks, Bo Schobel, and a great laugh. The Texans got fleeced.
What's the point of this walk down memory lane? I mean, it's not like Charley Casserly's around anymore. The Texans are run by a different brain trust. A brain trust that's shown it values draft picks. A brain trust that has shown it's fairly adept at targeting and finding players who fit their scheme and contribute via the draft. So what's the relevance to 2009?
The connection, my friends, is simple. As the draft gets closer and the Texans continue to add pieces via free agency, the thought of trading up is starting to creep back into our consciousness. Wouldn't B.J. Raji look good in steel blue? Damn right he would. How about Brian Orakpo? Imagine him blowing by lead-footed offensive linemen and forcing the QB to run toward Super Mario. And man...we do have that extra fourth round pick thanks to Sage Rosenfels. It's like free money!
I'm here to tell you that I cannot envision a scenario where I'd support a trade up next month for the Texans. The draft is a crapshoot. Teams do their homework and get as educated as they possibly can, but at the end of the day, it's a crapshoot. For every Tom Brady, there's a David Carr. For every Terrell Davis, there's a Curtis Enis. For every Marques Colston, there's a Charles Rogers. An exact science, drafting football players is not. Knowing that, why would you want to decrease your chances of hitting one out of the park by parting with proverbial at-bats?
This isn't to say that trading up is always a bad idea. As the players cited by TransientTexan in the post linked above show, it can work. But for the 2009 Houston Texans? With as many holes and/or depth issues as this team currently has, especially on the defensive side of the ball? I just can't rationalize why you'd pay the price it would take to trade up in the first round.
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preach on bro
I agree largely with this, and have said as much in several ramblings in the last month or so. BUT, as I said in another comment, I think we are positioned well to be flexible if the opportunity arises and the player feels right.
I think this team has shown that the experts be damned, they know what guy they want. If said guy looks like he’s going to go two picks before us, I like that we filled the larger holes in FA, and got an extra 4th for just such an occasion.
But in the end, like you said, its all a crapshoot. Luckily our FA appears to be pretty good at the table games.
Smushiak will take us to the playoffs in 2009.
by texanphil on Mar 23, 2009 10:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't largely agree with this, I completely agree
The Jason Babin fiasco was as bad a deal as can possibly be made. Even if the guy turned out to be half the player Casserly said he would be, the price was too high. He would have had to be another Charles Haley, Reggie White or Bruce Smith to have been even remotely worth 3 prime picks. The fact that he was a TOTAL bust, was major injury on top of insult.
Keep the draft picks. They are all lottery tickets. They can all yield players. More picks = better odds to upgrade the 2009 Texans. That’s the goal of the draft.
by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 23, 2009 10:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to nitpick
but, like I said then, Merriman was not a trade up. He was a trade DOWN. The Chargers took him with the extra pick they got from the Manning-Rivers deal the year before.
The Steven Jackson move is an outlier, too, because he plummeted well past where he was supposed to go and the Rams moved up two spots from 26 to 24 to snag a guy who most thought would go between 10 and 15.
Winslow has been good when healthy, but getting a TE was not really a need for a Browns team that was (and is) in disarray. You could argue that trading up to get him was just another in a long line of poor player decisions in Cleveland.
That Jammal Brown pick? Yeah, that was with Houston’s pick. Not that it wasn’t the right move for San Diego, but…uh…let’s not talk about it. Please?
The Shawn Andrews pick was a good one, for sure, but the Panthers (who got Philly’s pick via San Fran) got Chris Gamble in Philly’s original spot. Still, hard to argue with moving up to get a Pro Bowl guard.
The Jets moved up to get Revis, but the Panthers got Jon Beason in NYJ spot and the Jets could arguably have paid less to move up and get Michael Griffin, Aaron Ross, or Reggie Nelson (who was being considered like Sean Smith as able to play CB in the NFL). The Panthers also used the extra pick they received to take Ryan Kalil who absolutely destroyed the Combine and was thought to be a first-round talent.
The other picks were fine, though I didn’t really look at the players taken with the extra picks because it’s bedtime now. Still, the only consistent thing I see here is Carolina cashing in on teams that want to trade up. More importantly, there is NO ONE in the top 15, other than say Raji falling all the way to 14, that I would argue was worth trading up for.
Yay, sports.
by MDC on Mar 23, 2009 11:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It depends
It has to depend on what position your team is in. The Texans today aren’t in the same position they were coming off a 5-11 season. If you really think that the Texans, say, need one awesome player who can start on day 1, and with that player can be a playoff team, then it has to be an acceptable option to trade up. Whether the Texans are in that position or not is something Smithiak know better than us, and if they decide to pull the trigger to get, say, Raji, I’d think it would be a good move.
by killtacular on Mar 24, 2009 12:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: It Depends
The “one player away” train of thought would seem to be an exception to the general “Don’t Trade Up” rule, but (1) it doesn’t change the inherent unpredictability of draft success and (2) I don’t think the Texans are one player away.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
by Tim on Mar 24, 2009 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
We are several players away, and if we give away a prime pick for a maybe, then we are taking too much risk. We need to hedge our risk, and the more picks the merrier. Our team has done a great job in the draft, and I bet this will continue.
It takes a big man to walk away, but a bigger man to break his freaking jaw!
by USMC_Texas on Mar 24, 2009 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not necessarily
it all depends on the cost.
If our guy is available, and it only costs our extra 4th to make the switch, we aren’t making the “one player away” statement. We still get picks in rounds 1-7, which is more rounds to pick from than RS has had his entire GM career.
You are right it doesn’t change the unpredictability, but if the extra pick we have can guarantee us the guy that the FO wants vs. a significant drop off in who they want (for example last year they really wanted Brown, who would they have settled for?) then it is not only worth it, but its not the drastic “this is our whole playoff chance pick” that people think a trade up implies.
I’m only for a trade up in limited situations, but I think we have positioned ourselves quite nicely to have flexibility to trade up or down with what’s happened in the last month.
Smushiak will take us to the playoffs in 2009.
by texanphil on Mar 24, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't agree more
This has been my point from the beginning. I’ll take my chances on a guy with top 15 talent that I’m SOLD on vs a filler need in the 4th, especially when that 4th round pick is an extra one to begin with. If Orakpo or Raji are available at pick 13 and we’d only have to switch picks and give up our 4th, and the Texans FO believe that their is significant drop off in players at the same position at 15, then make the move! If not, then sit pat or trade down. But I completely agree that trading up does not send the message nor mean, “this guy is the savior” it may mean “this guy is safer,” or “this guy is better.” I understand the draft is a “gamble,” but every gamble is an odds game, and I’ll take my odds at the top of the draft then playing a chances game in the 4th round just b/c we have an extra pick.
by wiseonekms on Mar 24, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question
I think that’s the crux of the debate in this year’s draft. Is there anyone you’re absolutely SOLD on for the Texans in Round One of the draft? Because I’m not, and considering that doubt, I don’t want to give up an asset to draft anyone.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
by Tim on Mar 24, 2009 8:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Curry, but he’s not an option.
Seriously, did you see that dude’s pro day? He’s going to be amazing. He could literally play at a Pro Bowl level at any of the three LB positions. In fact, if Durga smiled and we were to get him, it would be REALLY hard to not put him at WLB and let him become Shiva, Destroyer of Worlds over there.
Yay, sports.
by MDC on Mar 24, 2009 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Curry As Sure Thing
Won’t argue that he appears to be the most sure thing in the draft, but as you noted, it’s moot for us. Anyone else that you are sold on? If not, there’s absolutely no reason for us to move up.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
by Tim on Mar 25, 2009 7:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not that it is a likelihood, and it's not even my idea, but...
Kyle posted an interesting comment on Houston Diehards. Mind you he states that this scenario is unlikely, BUT reportedly Buffalo is interested in Owen Daniels. Because we have tendered him the maximum, if Buffalo makes an offer that we choose not to match, then the Bills would forfeit both their 1st & 3rd picks in the upcoming draft. The Bills select 11th in the 1st round. KC may be willing to trade their #1(3) for our 11 & 15. We could then select Aaron Curry. We could then use our #2 to replace OD.
Again all props to Kyle at Diehards for dreaming this up. Like Kyle, I LOVE OD, but a #1 and a #3 would definitely be fair compensation. How would Aaron Curry look next to DeMeco?
by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 25, 2009 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Screw that
OD is awesome. He is young and will be a pro bowler. Not exactly easy to replace…..
It would be nice to get Curry, but not at that price.
It takes a big man to walk away, but a bigger man to break his freaking jaw!
by USMC_Texas on Mar 25, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OD is a known commodity
Any draft pick is a risk. The odds that even two high draft picks will be as good today as OD already is are very long. No, no and no again.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 25, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Techincally, I guess he's a risk...
but if you saw Curry’s pro day, you’d have no doubts. He’s going to be a superstar.
Yay, sports.
by MDC on Mar 25, 2009 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
but an interesting dilemma for RS if it happens
I don’t think it would get that far. Seems too high a price for Buffalo, known commodity or not.
If so, screw the trade up, I’d take our two firsts, two thirds and fourths and build a dynasty!
Smushiak will take us to the playoffs in 2009.
by texanphil on Mar 25, 2009 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree on both points
I responded to Kyle that I thought the price to Buffalo was too steep and no way would they do it. In the unlikely event that they did though, I would like to see what Smith could do with all those picks.
This is another harebrained idea but Buffalo may be proposing packaging Marshawn (blunt smokin’ gun totin’ soon to be suspended) Lynch and a draft pick or two for OD. Don’t think we want that kind of character in the Texans clubhouse, but his ability to run with the ball is very impressive.
by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 25, 2009 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Based on his tender offer...
don’t the HAVE to pay the 1/3? They can’t negotiate around that, can they?
Yay, sports.
by MDC on Mar 25, 2009 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that is my understanding
if the Texans refuse to match, they get Buffalo’s 1 & 3
by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 25, 2009 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oops I may have misunderstood the question
the 1& 3 is compensation for a FA contract offer. I was suggesting that the Bills may be trying to swing a trade involving the blunt smoker, in which case the compensation would have to be mutually agreed upon as in any trade.
by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 25, 2009 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They Can Negotiate Around The Terms
Remember—this is what the Texans did to acquire The Schaub. Atlanta tendered him at the highest level, so they were entitled to first and third round picks. Instead, Houston and Atlanta negotiated the deal down to two (2) second-rounders.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
by Tim on Mar 25, 2009 8:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Curry
is the only sure thing in the first round. He’s going to be a pro bowler at any LB position. OD is superfluous in this offense most weeks. We’d be the biggest morons since the Rams turned down a first for Torry Holt if we passed on that.
Yay, sports.
by MDC on Mar 25, 2009 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No such thing...
As a sure thing. A good bet maybe, but 100%……
It takes a big man to walk away, but a bigger man to break his freaking jaw!
by USMC_Texas on Mar 26, 2009 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If someone wanted to give us a first and third for OD...
I would lose my mind if we turned it down. He’s a very good TE, but he’s our second (or third) option in the pasing game (and 4th overall). We’d be mouth-breathing retards if we passed on that.
Yay, sports.
by MDC on Mar 25, 2009 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ALSO...
if we got Curry, it would be incredibly tempting to put him at WLB, Adibi be damned, and let Aaron destroy things over there. SLB would actually limit his impact.
Yay, sports.
by MDC on Mar 25, 2009 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
calm down
aint gonna happen.
RS would have to trade up, or the dude would have to murder some infants while smoking pot at his puppy-fighting mill to fall to us.
Do we really want that kinda guy playing for us, even at WLB?
Smushiak will take us to the playoffs in 2009.
by texanphil on Mar 25, 2009 10:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take the picks
I keep thinking about the awesome post by Collin at Big Cat Country concerning an uncapped league. What really stood out to me was the increased importance of the draft. If we really are headed to an uncapped NFL I’ll take our chances with the 8 picks we have.
by Women B. Shoppin on Mar 24, 2009 11:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You get most value/money from picks in the late first round through the eary third round
Generally speaking, if you have a lot of holes to fill, you want to avoid picking early in the first round. You tie up too much money on one player, when for a slight drop in talent, you can get more players with the same money.
The Texans have a lot of holes to fill. There is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to picking players who will succeed in the NFL (besides Reggie Bush, of course). So you’re generally better off using more picks later than fewer picks earlier.
For this reason, I am in favor of trading down with virtually no exception whatsoever. Three good players will generally do more for a team than one great player. Considering the Texans’ horrid history of injuries, and the general lack of depth on both sides of the ball (yes, even on offense), more is better.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 24, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reggie Bush?
Really? U thought he was a sure thing?
by wiseonekms on Mar 24, 2009 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're new here. Forgot.
I was being ironic.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 24, 2009 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Welcome to BRB, btw.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 24, 2009 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol,
ok good, b/c i didn’t want to have to sound stupid writing an entire post telling the world how much I think Bush is a bust and that anyone who thinks he was worth the #2 is smoking crack. But holy crap Kim Kardashian is hot.
by wiseonekms on Mar 25, 2009 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In this blog
I don’t think that there’s a soul who sees it any other way, about RB, at least. Opinions may vary on Kardashian. I mean, I’d hit it, but I would probably sleep with uglier women if they’re famous. Because, man, what a story.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 26, 2009 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Three good players will generally do more for a team than one great player.
I am totally with that statement…if that statement were not true, why do you think we keep trying to get some one, any one to be good enough to rush opposite Mario. Mario is a great player, but he can only do so much. I say take the three good players…well said
by schillingb on Mar 24, 2009 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
draft trade gurus
what does a 7th and our extra 4th get us in trade up value in:
round 1?
round 2?
Thats a good starting place. Then we can discuss who is worth it if available at those spots. For example: does our 4th and 7th move us up to #12 in rd 1? Do those two picks move us up to top 10 in round 2?
I ask because I feel comfortable giving our extra pick, and also giving up our 7th rounder. Not sure if that adds any/enough value to the trade or not, but I’d like to see, if a trade up scenario comes up, what is acceptable, and what players would we do it for.
Trade down and stay pat are obvious choices, and we’ll entertain most trade downs and draft accrodingly. Whether you are for a trade up or not, lets see how much we can move, then see which players we can’t dream of falling to that point, then see how it plays out. We all know RS is watching this thread and needs our input on who to pick.
Smushiak will take us to the playoffs in 2009.
by texanphil on Mar 24, 2009 7:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's Bestjagfan from Big Cat Country Here
So you guys want to trade up. Well, it just so happens the Jags want to trade down. Would you like the 8th overall pick. It’s possible Raji could be there, Orakpo might be, and Everette Brown certainly will be there.
Who says division rivals can’t help each other out sometimes.
Thats Good For Another Jacksonville... First Down.
by Bestjagfan on Mar 25, 2009 8:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If you are basing the price off the draft chart...
no. Not interested. But thanks for the offer.
Yay, sports.
by MDC on Mar 25, 2009 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What MDC Said
It’s nice to talk about and all, but we ain’t movin’ up. Too many holes to fill, and parting with draft picks is not conducive to filling those holes with cheap, young talent.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
by Tim on Mar 25, 2009 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly!
It takes a big man to walk away, but a bigger man to break his freaking jaw!
by USMC_Texas on Mar 26, 2009 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ORAKPO!!!!
I’ll trade you a 4th and switch 1sts w/ u to get ur 1st. I want Orakpo baaadly. but noone else here seems to agree w/ me :/
by wiseonekms on Mar 25, 2009 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
I’m sure the Jags have a little bit higher asking price than that. How about a fourth and a second, or maybe a third, you would have to haggle a little bit. The Texans first, third and a fourth. Sounds like a deal to me.
Thats Good For Another Jacksonville... First Down.
by Bestjagfan on Mar 25, 2009 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I use my veto power
and I can’t be overridden.
We may be interested in moving up in the second, however.
Smushiak will take us to the playoffs in 2009.
by texanphil on Mar 25, 2009 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
maaaan
that’s a steep price. But Orakpo is elite. I wouldn’t turn it down then and there, I’d tell u to let us keep the 4th though… So a 1st and 3rd to get up there, kinda like Baltimore did to us last year to get Flacco. Don’t think we’re gonna replicate a Derrick Harvey deal w/ u guys, I had no clue what u guys were doing there. He wasn’t even rated as high as Jamal Anderson the year before when they won the national championship, that’s WHY he stayed, and then he ended up playing worse! Derrick Harvey + Quentin Groves, interesting draft though, i’ll give u that.
by wiseonekms on Mar 27, 2009 1:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Orakpo is elite
…at the college level. No word yet on how good he is as a pro.
Not worth it imo.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 27, 2009 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
I’m a huge fan of Sack-Po in the Burnt Orange…..but it still remains to be seen how that translates into an NFL linebacker (or DE for those not concerned with size).
-
But there were plenty of us who were fans of VY in Burnt Orange (especially Beef), and we all know how that has turned out at the next level.
by Shake on Mar 27, 2009 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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