Could Jenkins slip to 15th?

by ChiefsDude on Mar 24, 2009 3:35 PM CDT Comment 25 comments

And with the #15 Pick in the Arrowhead Pride Community Mock Draft, the Houston Texans Select...

I spent some time researching the Texans for our annual AP mock draft and I have to admit, you guys have the makings of a fine team there. I would've loved to pick a USC linebacker at #15 but Malcolm Jenkins was just too good to pass up. Is it possible his stock has fallen that low? I'm curious what you guys think.

How'd you like the prospect of trading 1st picks here if Curry became available? I'd support it for a 2nd round pick. KC needs more picks and Houston is looking for a couple of key players to tie it all together. Good luck this year!

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Jenkins can't fall THAT far

He’ll go to the Saints, there’s no way he goes past them. And the Texans are not trading up to #3. We’re all about cost-cutting and piling up draft picks as well. Curry is a stud, but there’s no way we’re trading up that far. I can see us moving up 3-4 picks from 15, but not all the way to #3. Pioli is a smart guy, I’m sure he’s going to try and move that pick, but the Texans are not going to bite, sorry. We’re far more likely to trade down than up.

by wiseonekms on Mar 24, 2009 7:43 PM CDT reply actions

Don't play with my emotions

Yes, he could fall that far, but I don’t think he will. I would love for him to be a Texan, although that’s a controversial issue around these parts.

Let's get the Texans a better fight song.

by Jake on Mar 24, 2009 8:19 PM CDT reply actions

Somewhere...

TT is crying at his keyboard at the thought of Jenkins being there at No. 15 and the Texans passing on him.

CD—While I love Aaron Curry, I can’t condone giving up our first and second round picks for him. Too many holes to fill on our end.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Mar 24, 2009 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions

Whether he does or not...

I don’t want him. And I like you less for having picked him.

To quote Public Enemy, “Don’t believe the hype!”

Yay, sports.

by MDC on Mar 24, 2009 9:36 PM CDT reply actions

Is our draft position an enigma wrapped in a puzzle wrapped in a conundrum

or a conundrum wrapped in a puzzle wrapped in an enigma? Restated, who do you anticipate being on the board at 15 (assuming that we cannot move down) who is worth the 15th pick? Who do you want to select in the 1st round?

by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 24, 2009 11:57 PM CDT up reply actions

If we're taking a safety...

I want Sean Smith.

If we’re taking DL, I’m leaning back toward Michael Johnson, though I’m not 100%.

If we’re dead set on taking a SLB, I guess I’m cool with Clay, but I’m not thrilled about it.

Yay, sports.

by MDC on Mar 25, 2009 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions

I don't like reaching for a player to fill a need - good organizations don't do that

I think in fact good organizations usually do the opposite; they take the BPA regardless of need. Admittedly we are not “one player away” and have several areas of need, but unless I am way off Sean Smith and Michael Johnson would be big reaches at 15. Clay3 not so much.

Smith is definitely one of the top DB’s in the draft and likely will be gone by 46, but I just don’t see him being the right choice at 15. Same for MJ at the DE position. I am thinking that Ayers may be better than MJ. Clay3 is the highest ranked of the 3, but even he may be considered a reach at 15.

by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 25, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions

It's not a reach if a player fills a need, imo

Particularly if that player would not be available when your team picks next. Duane Brown is a perfect example. People called him a reach, yet a team that was picking behind us (can’t remember who) admitted that they would have taken him had he been available. And he started virtually every game. He may not have been the second coming of Jonathan Ogden or anything, but it’s hard to call him a reach.

I’m honestly not sure if the historical record backs up the theory that good organizations take the best player available regardless of need. I would think that there’s enough counterfactual evidence to suggest that it’s not the only path to success. Which is why I will puke if we take someone like Maclin or Crabtree if Matthews, Johnson or someone like that is around.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 25, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions

San Diego

Was picking behind us and said they would’ve taken Brown if we hadn’t.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Mar 25, 2009 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions

"Particularly if that player would not be available when your team picks next."

That is 100% my point. If he won’t be there when we pick in the second, our two options are to consider him at 15 or to pretend like he’s not an option. Except he’s the most perfect fit for our secondary in the first 60 picks.

Yay, sports.

by MDC on Mar 25, 2009 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions

More to the point, though...

Johnson was a top 10 pick 3 months ago. Clay Matthews was a late 2/ early 3 pick then. He was a “let’s trade down to 25 pick” a month ago. Both guys had fantastic combines. What has changed other than people deciding that maybe Clay had some upside? If Matthews is not a reach, Johnson and Smith aren’t. Beyond which, I refuse to let Kiper decide which players “should” be picked at any spot.

Smith is better in nearly every measurable area than Jenkins. If you willing to take Jenkins at 15 and move him to safety, there’s no reasonable argument for not taking Smith there instead other than “it’s a reach” as defined by dickbags like Kiper and McShay.

Yay, sports.

by MDC on Mar 25, 2009 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions

This is all a classic example

…of people with little to no brains and too much time on their hands (I refer here to pundits).

As in other fields of analysis, there are two main problems: 1) groupthink; and 2) being able to absorb information and predict the future are two different things. A history teacher can no more tell you about what is going to happen in five years’ time than Mel Kiper can tell you who Carolina is going to take with their 4th round pick.

Any honest accounting of the draft has to point out that you can’t accurately predict which teams will take what because a) you’re not inside the heads of the GMs of any teams; b) you have no idea who is going to trade up or down; and c) there’s just too much randomness involved. You might as well try to predict the weather next year. On Jupiter.

For me the value is learning about the coming into the league and seeing how they end up. And in finding creative ways to insult the MSM.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 25, 2009 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions

Mario Williams was a reach

and McShay went on record saying we’d “regret” this. Oh ya..Kubes is losing sleep over that one. I love how Jim Rome calls Mario on his show every year to say, “oh man, we were all wrong about u, i’m sorry.” yaaaaaa, i think i’ll trust kubiak on the draft. He’s given us little to no reason to doubt him so far.

by wiseonekms on Mar 27, 2009 1:43 AM CDT up reply actions

there were a couple of those "reaches" last year

Sam Baker was a “reach” according to many draft pundits. So was Chris Johnson when the Titans selected. Everyone said, his speed didn’t match his production, why didn’t the Titans take a receiver blah blah blah. I kinda agree w/ you on the whole idea of “overreaching,” being overrated but Crabtree is far more valuable as a wideout than Matthews as an SLB. If Crabtree is there you HAVE to take him. R u kidding? Our offense is good, but adding Crabtree to ur offense vs adding Matthews to ur defense is an easy choice. It’s not like Matthews was a stellar can’t miss player at USC. Crabtree and Johnson would be nasty and if Kubiak had the chance to do that, he should. Not to mention trying to get a team to break the bank for our pick if Crabtree was available @ 15.

by wiseonekms on Mar 25, 2009 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions

It's hypothetical, obviously, because Crabtree is unlikely to be around at 15

But taking a wide receiver in the first round is, bar none, the worst move a team can make. Crabtree is not a lock, nor is Maclin. It’s a waste of money. We won the lottery with Johnson, but lotteries are a losing proposition. Suffice to say, I don’t want the Texans to spend money on a high-round WR when there are more pressing needs for the team to address.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 26, 2009 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions

As Tim pointed out, Brown may not have been on everyone's radar as being worth #26

but SD would have picked him at 27 so I don’t think he could be called a reach. A reach to me is taking a player well above (15 or so slots) where any other team would have selected him. That’s virtually impossible to quantify because filling needs is a big component to determining the order in which players are selected.

Sean Smith may be better than Jenkins, but if he is then all of the charts are wrong. Many charts indicate that Smith will be selected in the neighborhood of our 2nd pick (46). I am not smart enough to project whether Smith or Jenkins would be better for the Texans. I trust Rick Smith to do that. My admittedly non-expert analysis is that we can take Matthews or Ayers at 15 (or 20 if we trade with Det and add a #3) and still be able to use a #4 to move up in round 2 to take Sean Smith if Smithiak likes him as much as many of the people here do.

I cannot imagine Crabtree falling to 15, but if he fell into our laps I would be sick if we DIDN’T take him. Crabtree is a special playmaker and paired with AJ we would have an electric combination like last year’s Boldin-Fitzgerald combo for the Cards.

by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 25, 2009 8:48 PM CDT up reply actions

The point

is that there’s no such thing as a reach if the guy isn’t going to be there when you pick again. It’s that simple—-you get one crack at the player and, if you pass, there isn’t a second chance. Smith will almost certainly be gone well before 46 — he had a fantastic Combine, he can play two positions at the NFL level according to scouts, and he’s the best FS (who is actually a free safety and not a failed CB) in the draft.

As for Matthews, what is everyone’s love affair with the kid? He was never more than the third-best LB on his own team. It’s not like he’s 1a to Curry’s 1 or something.

[I had a bunch of extra stuff here, but I’m going to save it for a post. Long and short of it, all these “rankings” are just probabilities of success in the NFL. They’re saying that these 30 or so guys are more likely to succeed in the NFL than the next 30. But, as we’ve seen time and time again, they are very rarely right. So relying on them for who is or is not a reach makes no sense.]

Yay, sports.

by MDC on Mar 26, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions

My point is that Sean is not worth the 15th pick

He can be had in the 1st half of the 2nd round, and we can get him + another instant contributor on defense if Smithiak has that as his game plan. We can sacrifice the 2nd 4th rounder to get Sean, and if he is as good as everyone thinks, then it will be worth sacrificing the pick.

by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 26, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Based on the draft value chart...

using the second of the 4th rounders only gets you up to 41. Smith is the most NFL ready safety in the first two rounds, so the odds of him slipping into the 40s are slim (at best). There are already mocks that have him going in the first. (http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2009.php)

Yay, sports.

by MDC on Mar 27, 2009 7:57 AM CDT up reply actions

It comes down to which rankings do you want to believe

I’ll say it again. I’m not smart enough to know if Sean Smith will be an impact safety in the NFL. I trust Smithiak to suss all that out. Sean Smith is rising on the charts rather than falling, but I still think we can execute a plan to get him with our 2nd pick, and get two immediate impact players on D.

by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 27, 2009 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions

Mock Sickness

Is anyone else at the point, where they are tired of mock drafts? I’ve seen enough mocks to make me puke. I love doing mocks as much as the next guy, but it just seems that this year we’ve been bombarded by them. Bring on the REAL draft and lets get some impact palyers!

- tyler

by bullpen116 on Mar 25, 2009 9:53 AM CDT reply actions

I hear what you're saying, but the reality is that the draft is not for another 4 1/2 weeks

There may be too much draft talk going around, but I think that this is definitely better than the “old” days where all we had was a daily newspaper for information. Besides with no games to discuss, FA, the draft and the owner’s meetings are the next best thing.

by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 25, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions

It's more fun to overanalyze this stuff

In fact, I would argue that that is the second best thing about the NFL, you know, after the actual games.

Plus, calling Hathead and McShay morons, and having proof of it, is a thrill.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 25, 2009 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions

There's so much time to go over this from every angle

unlike the regular season, when there is only a few days to pick apart each game. For me it is at times tedious, but then when a new signing, trade, rumor etc. happens it gets interesting all over again.

by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 25, 2009 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions