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NFL Draft Smokescreens Abound

Grab your wading boots because the B.S. is going to get pretty thick this week.  I personally like to refer to the week before the NFL Draft as “Smokescreen Week”.  Every year, teams try their best to spread false information through the media in an effort to deceive other teams drafting around them.  The purpose of such deceptions is to either inspire bait for a trade down, or to convince other teams not to leapfrog them and take “their guy”.  This year is no different, and Smokescreen Week as already begun.  I’m sure there are more out there, but three pieces of news over the weekend immediately struck me as misdirection ploys.

Star-divide

Detroit

The first smokescreen is the most obvious because they’re not taking any steps to hide it.  Detroit announced on Friday that they will begin negotiations with the agents of LB Aaron Curry, OT Jason Smith, and QB Matthew Stafford.  The problem with that statement?  Tom Condon represents both Stafford and Smith, so how do you negotiate one against the other?  I personally believe that Curry isn’t even an option for Detroit, but he was brought into this conversation because the Lions needed someone to keep Condon honest.    

The other interesting wrinkle in this is that it’s in Condon’s best interest for the Lions to take Stafford first.  If Detroit took Smith first, there’s no telling who would select Stafford; it could be as late as San Francisco at 10.  Draftees are paid according to the number of the pick in which they were selected in the draft, almost regardless of position they play.  If Stafford is taken first, the lowest Smith would be taken is likely fourth to Seattle, thus making more money for Condon.  In the end, I think Detroit will end up taking Stafford because they’ll realize that the big three (Stafford, Sanchez and Freeman) will be gone by their second first round selection at 20.  It also doesn’t hurt Stafford’s chances that it’s in the best interest of the man representing his competition that Stafford is taken first.

Cleveland

Eric Mangini loves to think of himself as Machiavellian.  Two years ago he tried to screw his former employer and mentor, Bill Belichick, by unleashing the Spygate scandal.  Since he’s taken over the Browns, he’s kept such a tight lid on communications that it’s alienated Browns players and the media charged with covering the team.  Now it seems as if he’s trying to pull a fast one on everyone.

Last week, Action 19 News of Cleveland reported that the Browns had limited their choices for their first round pick to QB Mark Sanchez and WR Michael Crabtree.  On the surface, this makes sense because there are rumors circulating around trading current Browns Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn and Braylon Edwards.  If any of those trades occur it would their way of starting over with “their guys”. 

Here’s the rub though.  Cleveland’s pass rush is anemic, and Mangini is a defensive-oriented guy.  Why target two of the most sought-after offensive stars in the draft?  Because they’re sought-after. I think that Cleveland is trying inspire someone to trade up and get either Sanchez or Crabtree like Oakland (for Crabtree), San Francisco (for Sanchez) or Jacksonville (for possibly either).  Cleveland would still be in position to get a dominant pass rushing LB or D-lineman, and would gather more picks as a result.  Sneaky.

NY Jets

For weeks I’ve been speculating that the Jets would be in the market for a QB, which might inspire someone to leapfrog them to grab the last viable first round QB, hopefully trading with the Texans in the process.  I’m not alone in the thought that the Jets need to draft their QB of the future, as no one seems to have faith in current signal callers Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff.  QB is the only major position of need besides maybe WR for the Jets, so it seems obvious that they’d be in the market for a QB in the first round.

Now all of the sudden, the Jets are madly in love with Clemens.  That’s right.  After just two days of minicamp, Rex Ryan (a career defensive coordinator) thinks that Clemens looks like the second coming of Joe Namath.  This by the way, is the same Clemens that is 3-5 as a starter, has a 52% completion percentage, and a 5/11 TD to INT ratio. 

The Jets are simply trying to throw it out there that they’re happy with what they’ve got and are not interested in Josh Freeman, who is the only QB with a chance of making it to them, and therefore there is no need for a team to trade above 17 to grab him.  This is the most obvious smokescreen in my opinion, but worth a shot nonetheless.

If you have any disagreements with my thoughts, feel free to tell me in the comments.  Also, if you see any pieces of news or rumors that you think are smokescreens, throw them out there.

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interesting rumor

although it is just a truth and rumor , this post on cnnsi.com has the browns being interested in Sanchez. This strikes me as also being a possible smokescreen, since trading one of their young qb’s to get another doesnt seem to make any sense. Who do you guys think is interested in Quinn, and how do you think it will effect our trading down in the first round?

by Mookazoid on Apr 20, 2009 10:00 AM CDT reply actions  

Tough to Say

I have a hard time fathoming ANY trade-my-first-round-pick for Quinn. I think Denver probably made the most sense, prior to the Cutler deal, because of McDaniels’ connection to Weis, considering the latter is the most vocal Quinn supporter on the planet.

Now? I’m just not sure. He’s half a step up from a rookie in terms of professional experience. What would you give up for him?

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Apr 21, 2009 7:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

I love this stuff.

I never thought about the impact of agents representing multiple high-draft prospects. I still think Stafford is a bad pick for Detroit, but I wonder if taking Oher instead would piss of Condon and have him suggest a hold-out. Either way, I hope they pull a Texans-move and take Curry instead. It wouldn’t be nearly as surprising as Mario I suppose, but I think it’s the right move. Detroit fans have suffered enough; rebuild that defense with the best player available and get a QB once you have a system in mind for him. And no, deep-ball to Megatron on every play doesn’t count as a system, as much fun as it might be.

Looking forward to more of these posts. Do you see anything from the Texans here? Could the Bruce Matthews hiring really be a ploy to dupe somebody else into trading up for Clay?

by Nashmeister on Apr 20, 2009 11:00 AM CDT reply actions  

I don't think so

The Texans seem to have gone the complete opposite direction from giving smokescreens; just staying quiet. BTW, I’ve asked John McLain several times during his chats who the Texans have brought in for visits, and he stated that the Texans haven’t told anyone. I don’t know if it’s true or not, but a good friend of mine who writes for another football blog was telling me that NFL teams are limited to 30 player visits, and because of that limitation they are required to tell somebody who is coming to town. I don’t know who, but someone knows who the Texans are interested in, just not us.

Let's get the Texans a better fight song.

by Jake on Apr 20, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

Smokescreens can often have a double purpose

Not only are they attempts to mislead other teams, but they can also work as a placebo for the team’s fan base.

Since the re-retirement of Favre the Jets QB situation has looked bleak to its fans and they have been screaming bloody murder for the Jets to do something about it, but it has been obvious for quite a while to draftsters that theres a good chance not even Freeman will make it to them. Massively overhyping Clemens so that the fans think they have a solid QB will help ease the disdain the team would get by not getting a QB in the first round, and hopefully keep ticket sales at a stable level.

Similarly there are many, many, Lions fans who think that the Lions should take Stafford, but there are many others who think they need to take a tackle or defensive player. This will leave them with the unarguable excuse “Well we tried to offer this contract to these guys, but ______ accepted what the other guys wouldn’t.” That was Houston’s best defense when they took Mario Williams in 2006, while many think they just had him pegged over Bush all along.

Currently Listening to: VAST - Touched

"I feel like I'm the best, but you're not going to get me to say that." - Hall of Fame WR Jerry Rice

by last texans fan on Apr 20, 2009 1:37 PM CDT reply actions  

Smokescreens abound, indeed

However, I’m not sure if Mangini’s statement about Sanchez and Crabtree is much of a smokescreen. I’m thinking he’s been given some sort of vote of confidence which means he doesn’t have to “right” some sunken ship in a hurry. If there are players he doesn’t like, he doesn’t have to deal w/ them. Kellen Winslow is gone for example, and he didn’t draft either of the 2 QB’s and saying he’s interested in Sanchez may not be a smokescreen, it’s probably true. And usually when teams want to trade down, it’s so they can grab extra picks to get more defensive players rather than offensive ones, so if that doesn’t work, he’ll stick w/ the best talent on the board: Crabtree. If they move Edwards, they’ll get a 1st rounder and Crabtree is getting Andre Johnson comparisons, not a bad move at pick #5. I’m believing Mangini on this one. Crabtree’s their pick while Quinn and Edwards will be traded on draft day.

by wiseonekms on Apr 20, 2009 4:20 PM CDT reply actions  

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