What Would Be Fair Market Value In Trade For Dunta Robinson?
by Tim on Jul 8, 2009 10:00 PM CDT
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PrintI've been pondering this in the back of my mind for the last few weeks, but EHTR's FanPost inspired me to post about this. The Dunta Robinson contract issue is quickly approaching total fiasco status. A brief recap on what's gone down since Dunta received the franchise tag (worth nearly $10,000,000.00 in guaranteed money) from your Houston Texans:
1. Dunta claims he's been betrayed.
2. Rick Smith claims Dunta and/or his agent apparently misunderstood the team's stance on using the franchise tag on him.
3. Dunta swears he won't report unless the team promises not to tag him next year.
4. John McClain reports that Dunta turned down a multi-year deal that would have guaranteed him $23,000,000.00 prior to getting tagged.
No matter whether you believe some or all of the above is merely propaganda issued by the organization or Dunta's camp, it seems pretty clear that we're rapidly coming to a point where a separation could feasibly benefit both parties (if we're not already there). Personally, I think the Texans went above and beyond offering $23 mil in guaranteed money to a player who's only about a year and a half removed from a horrific injury. You know, assuming the Texans actually did offer that kind of money. Which, although never confirmed by either party to the negotiation, has oddly never been refuted by Dunta or his agent, which in turn strikes me as strange, considering Dunta's willingness to air the negotiating process in the media. But that's not really the point of this entry, especially because the Texans can franchise Dunta until the cows come home if they choose to do so.
The point, BRB, is simply this: Assuming there was a team out there who wanted Dunta Robinson in its employ, what would be fair market value for Dunta in trade? For the sake of this exercise, let's operate under the assumption that Dunta agreed to sign his franchise tender and was locked up for '09. A potential trade partner would almost surely want to ink him to a more cap friendly, multi-year deal; let's pretend there's a team out there willing to satisfy Dunta's demands, and the only stumbling block is what the Texans received for parting with their (presumably) starting CB. What would be fair compensation? Opine via the poll and Comments below.
Me? At this point, I'd be ecstatic with a second-rounder, and I'd probably even agree to a third-rounder and a lesser pick in the 2011 draft.
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I agree with everything you stated
From the Texans point of view, I believe that the F-Tag salary doesn’t count against the cap. Also, if Dunta signs with another team, they have right of first refusal. Plus, if he signs and they don’t exercise their right of first refusal, then they get compensated with draft picks. Is it any wonder why the Texans didn’t F-tag him? Not as far as I am concerned.
Is Dunta’s only argument against his current F-tag that he thought the Texans promised him they wouldn’t do that? And, is he NOW making it a pre-condition of all future negotiations that they agree right now that they will not F-tag him again, ever? Laughable. And that is really an indictment of his agent whose advice he must be following.
What the Texans did was forced upon them as soon as the recovering cornerback refused to sign what appears to be a more than fair offer.
This road has been traveled by other NFL teams/players before the Texans vs. Dunta feud started. And, MOOOOOOOOOO, I hear the cows coming!
I agree with your compensation for Dunta also, 2hd rounder in 2010 and 3rd rounder in 2011, and I don’t think they could expect any more than that.
It will happen
2nd-rounder would be fine.
DeAngelo Hall went for a 2nd-rounder, and he had a better resume (not to mention no real injury concerns).
The problem with that though is that we’d be losing somebody who could contribute to our team this year. Yes, we’re building a team for sustained success over the next decade. But this is a bit of a make-or-break year for more than a few people in the franchise. I don’t think it’s off-base to say that we need to win this year in order for Kubiak to keep his job.
So while that 2nd-rounder would be awfully nice for the future, I think I’d hang onto Dunta for another year just to ensure that we don’t have to deal with another regime change (although some people are into that kind of thing). We can argue that he wasn’t all that effective last year, but in terms of both wins/losses as well as points allowed and other defensive statistics, our team was much better with Dunta on the field. With Dunta starting (just the last six games of the season), we went 5-1 and allowed 17.8 points per game. It probably has more to do with who we played, but it’s interesting to see anyways.
Boo
I’m going to ignore the main point of this post because I have no idea what other teams might offer for dunta to say this, which seems to always be ignored on brb:
1) Dunta has a huge incentive to NOT deny McClain’s report, regardless of whether it is true or false. If he doesn’t deny it, it is possible other teams might think it is for real and use that as a baseline in future free agent negotiations, even if it is complete BS. Dunta gains nothing – except perhaps slightly more respect from bored bloggers – by denying that report, and has everything to gain by letting it stand. There is simply no downside for Dunta and his agent to have people think he might be worth this insane amount of money. Seriously, the lack of a denial by Dunta and his agent on the McClain report is NOT evidence that the report is in fact true: they care much more about what other GMs think than what we do.
2) The reason he wants a guarantee that he won’t be franchised again is because he thinks 2010 will be an uncapped year. If it is, and if the Texans can’t franchise him again, he thinks he could seriously cash in with the Redskins/Cowboys/whoever. And, really, that makes a lot of financial sense, because he could probably get a pretty sweet contract in that situation. It might make so much sense that skipping some games this year seems like a viable option…
All that said: if McClain’s report is in fact true, then Dunta seems insane.
Re: Boo
1. I respectfully disagree. First and foremost, do you really believe that any other team besides the Texans would respond to a demand of $23 mil in guaranteed money or more with anything but a laugh and a dead line? If Dunta and/or his people truly intend on using that as a baseline in negotiations with other teams, they are nuts. Right now, there is simply no other team that would offer Dunta that kind of money. None.
Secondly, I would argue that Dunta’s silence on McClain’s report speaks volumes to another group besides “bored bloggers”—namely, the Texans’ entire fan base. I’ve been amazed at how public opinion has turned against him since the news came out that he allegedly turned down $23 mil in guarantees. I’ve yet to read or talk to anyone, fervent a Texans fan as he or she might be, who has expressed anything but increduility that he would refuse to sign a deal of that magnitude. Again, there’s NO WAY he would get that on the open market right now. If he could, another team would’ve signed him to an offer sheet. So what does Dunta get out of keeping quiet after he’s made a practice of negotiating through the press? Nothing except alienating the fans who’ve supported him.
2. The way I understand this article by Schefter, an uncapped 2010 would mean Dunta would go back to being a restricted free agent after this season. I suppose it’s possible that a team like the Redskins or Cowboys could sign him to a fat offer sheet, but the Texans would have the right to match and, more importantly, would receive compensation in the form of draft picks if they decided not to. Should Dunta sign a huge offer with another team after the 2009 season, I think it’s far more likely that the Texans would take the draft picks.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
by Tim on Jul 9, 2009 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions
First and foremost, I was pretty drunk when I wrote that, and it comes off way bitchier then I intended, So, ya, my bad.
Anyways, I’d doubt that any team would offer that much to Dunta right now. My point was I didn’t see any good reason for his camp to deny it. Even if no one else would offer him that much this year, just having that number out there as a baseline might push up what he is offered by some free spending teams without a salary cap next year, particularly if he plays very well this year and doesn’t get franchised again.
I also agree it makes him look bad to those fans who follow such things.
2) Hmm, that article is very puzzling. Last year was Dunta’s fifth year in the NFL, not his fourth, although it was the fourth year for all the other players cited. Because, of course, 2004 was Dunta’s first year, which means after this year he’ll have six years in the NFL, which according to that article and others I have read, means he’d be an UFA. Does 2007/2008 not count as two years for Dunta because of the injury or something? Or am I smoking something here??? Anyways, I agree that my point stops making what little sense it might have if Dunta won’t be a UFA after next season.
Unless (a) there is a Collective Baragaining Agreement called the Dunta Bargaining Agreement
…and (b) Dunta performs the way he thinks he can next season; and ( c ) Dunta does not sign a negotiated contract with the Texans…you can expect to see Dunta get franchised again. That is really the only alternative scenario I can imagine if the Texans want to keep Dunta…because the Texans will not allow him to become a UFA if they don’t have to, and they don’t.
Of course, he could be traded, but that would involve the Texans getting compensated in the trade and Dunta agreeing to a new contract with the other team prior to the trade being accepted. Otherwise, why would the other team agree to the trade? That is the only other reasonable scenario that I can think of.
And regarding Eric Winston’s explanation…Dunta should have accepted the contract the Texans offered in the first place.
Any other ideas?
It will happen
What the hell does he want??
If he’s going to take everything to the media, why not give them a sample of a contract he would accept? That would tell everyone in the world exactly what he thinks of himself, and would also give us his trade value, because a new team is going to have to pony up that dough, should (when) we choose to deny him.
I think this kid is dead in the water, as far as our FO is concerned. I would be shocked if there was ANY further/ongoing negotiation with his camp. And I’m fine with that, because fuck him, that’s why.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
Eric Winston answered that in his statements regarding Owen Daniels' contract
Like Owen Daniels, Dunta wants the stability that ten million dollars can’t provide. He doesn’t want to worry about trying to make a squad every year, especially when his skills diminish in two years. He wants to know that he will be in Houston for the next four years, so maybe he can feel established in Houston. Personally, I think it’s a load of spoiled crybaby crap. Ten million big ones provides the best stability I can think of. With people losing their jobs and being unable to afford housing all over this country, the nerve of these athletes to press their sense of entitlement is amazing to watch.
Personally, I think non-star players who want star money are untradeable.
The true test in the life of a Texans fan is how gracefully you endure it.
my 2010-2nd + 2011-3rd rating assumes a mediocre trade partner
If it is from a perrinal playoff organization, then I’d like more, if we’re talking about Tampa (who I think is going down the toilet) I’d take less.
Just to clear earlier confusion
Regardless of whether or not a new CBA will be agreed to by next offseason, Dunta Robinson will be an unrestricted free agent after this season. By virtue of having accrued six NFL seasons (including 09).
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