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Contracts, Salary Cap, and the Future?


With all these questions about new deals for players springing up, and with contract negotiations dominating our attention as Texans fans, I decided to do a quick cap preview for the next 4 years, using InTheBullseye.com, Rotoworld.com, and pulling numbers out of my ass to acquire data to analyze. This examines the hypothetical future for our Houston Texans under new deals for our big name players in question.

Star-divide

According to InTheBullseye.com, for 2009 we are under the cap by about $10 million, and for 2010, with DeMeco Ryans, Mike Brisiel, Ryan Moats, and Tim Bulman (and others) as RFAs, and Chris Brown, Travis Johnson, Chester Pitts, Chaun Thompson, Kevin Walter, and Dunta Robinson (with some more low dollar contracts) as UFAs, we are $39.97 million under. If we pretend that Owen never signed his RFA tender, then we have an unsigned O.D. this year and the cap space for 2009 is $12 million.

Using the benchmarks Tim provided, as well as Rotoworld.com salaries for some comparable players, I established what I feel would be good deals for the three players in question:

DeMeco Ryans – Six years, $48 million contract. The deal includes $24 million guaranteed. 2009: $1.35 million, 2010: $1.85 million, 2011-2013: $4.35 million, 2014: $4.85 million, 2015: $5.5 million, 2016: Free Agent 

Dunta Robinson - Four years, $16.8 million contract. The deal contains $8.5 million guaranteed, including a $6 million signing bonus. 2009: $2.15 million, 2010: $2.9 million, 2011: $3.293 million, 2012: Free Agent. (This is Cortland Finnegan’s deal. This is what Dunta deserves, as he hasn’t proven that he is worth a huge deal, but he is still a leader and an impact player if 100%. Undoubtedly, we will pay more than this to keep him, but we shouldn’t.)

Owen Daniels - Six years, $30 million contract. The deal contains $14 million guaranteed, including an $11 million roster bonus in the second year. 2009: $620,000, 2010: $2.325 million, 2011: $3.7 million, 2012: $3.8 million, 2013: $3.85 million, 2014: Free Agent ( This is Chris Cooley’s deal. I think this is too much for Owen, but he is a proven commodity and worth keeping around. HOWEVER, if someone dangles anything that even resembles a first round pick for him...bye Owen, and thanks for all the fish. )

I think those are fair deals. Will they accept them? No, but if they did, let us take a look at our salary cap scenario for the 2009 season. DeMeco’s cap number would be $5.35 million, Dunta's is $4.27 million, and Owen’s is $2.9 million. That allows us to just barely squeak by under the cap for the upcoming season, with probably less than a million dollars of cap space available (Remember, I am rounding).

What about the 2010 season? DeMeco’s cap number would be $5.85 million, Dunta’s at $4.32 million, and Owen’s at $4.65 million. Along with the rest of the salaries on the roster, that leaves $25.15 million left to re-sign Chris Brown (if he doesn’t break his wrist signing), Ferguson (if we still suck at safety after the 2009 season, my brain will explode), Travis Johnson (brain explodes), Chester Pitts (big contract here), Chaun Thompson, Kevin Walter, Matt Turk, Mike Brisiel, Tim Bulman, Ryan Moats, and some back-up fodder. Not too shabby, I think.

After 2011 is even more hypothetical, as there are so many variables as to who will even be here in two years, but for S&Gs let’s take a gander.

2011 is where it starts to get interesting. Mario Williams' cap number is $17-20 million, Andre Johnson’s is $8.675 million, and Schaub’s is $6.86 million, Antonio Smith is going to be about $6 million, and, by now, I bet we have given Steve Slaton a new deal.  Lots of money there, plus Leach, Fred Bennett, Bentley, and a whole bunch of backups need new deals.

2012, I firmly believe, will suck. A lot. First, Mario needs a new deal. My stomach turns thinking about how much money I am absolutely willing to spend to keep Mario here:  6 years, $80 million is probably the price tag we will be looking at (if not much more). Schaub, AJ, Antonio Smith, Winston, DeMeco, Dunta, and Owen will all be making a lot of money. We will probably be paying Cushing quite a bit on his rookie deal here as well.  We will need to resign Eugene Wilson, Apostrophe, Chris Myers, Dan-O, David Anderson, and if they haven’t already, Steve Slaton. Something’s gotta give, methinks.

 The next few years look to be pretty interesting. We have finally reached the negative part of no longer sucking – paying the players who don’t suck. Managing contracts and acquiring cheap talent are going to be important parts of the future. We are going to see our first money casualties in the next few years, and watching one of our real stars leave for cash elsewhere for the first time is going to blow. Hopefully, this gave you guys and gals a little bit better idea of what the future may look like for our Houston Texans.

Sound off below.

5 recs  |  Comment 7 comments |

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Comments

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Fantastic work

Great great post.
I think Dunta signing for the amount you stated is a dream. You’re right that that is all he’s worth but he’s leaving over half that amount of money (for just 1 year of service no less) on the table and holding out. No way he is with this team after this year, nor should he be IMHO.
I like the Demeco deal that you proposed. It’s a lot, especially for a MLB, but we’re not paying him just on talent but also for his leadership.
OD is tough, is he a product of the system that can be replaced or is he a rare talent that needs to be paid the amount that you proposed? Keeping in mind the amount that it’s gonna take to resign Mario (who is without a doubt a rare talent that we must keep or I will lose all faith in Smith), maybe we just keep him on this year, see if he’ll accept a cap friendly deal or just make him play out his tender and deal with him after this year.
I think Chester Pitts finds a new home after this season. He’s gonna want more than 6 mil a year and if Caldwell can play like we hope he can, Pitts becomes expendable. I really like the guy, but he can be replaced at a lower cost.
Slaton I believe deserves a new deal after this year if he can keep up or improve on his numbers from last year. Maurice Jones-Drew money seems fair, but not a penny more since this system allows for the right type of RB to excel.
I think that Mario, AJ, and even possibly Schaub will be offered new deals after this season or after 2010 to try and throw lots of guaranteed money at them but bring down their cap numbers.
Another point, I don’t think that we can gauge Rick Smith’s willigness to negotiate long-term deals by this offseason since it is so unique in nature. No one knows what is going to happen with the CBA after this season. Will there be a new CBA, and if so will it contain a salary cap? Is there going to be a lockout? It’s tough to conduct business in such a climate so I think we should all keep that in mind before we judge Rick Smith’s ability to negotiate with top players. At this point, the organization has the upper hand with all these players and may very well be better served by taking a wait and see approach with players. No business would want to give out massive paydays when there is no guarantee that the company will even be open for business after this year.

by DocTexan on Jul 9, 2009 10:04 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

great work

as doc said earlier, what dunta turned down, there is NO WAY he accepts that deal…i dont think owen takes tha deal, nor demeco…

Frankly i think we shud let dunta go already…do some sorta sign and trade…i really like him but cant stand these shanangans…

love the apostrophe naming, tho dont think we shud resign him…wont need dan-or prolly either but wtvr…

also we need to keep in mind that we also drafting rookies, and they cost money so every year, more money wud be added if im not mistaken…

by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 9, 2009 10:15 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Another Outstanding Post

Looking at Riott’s projections, I think a pretty solid argument can be made that getting draft picks for Dunta (and maybe even OD, if you’re a believer that he’s a product of the system, which I am not) is the best thing that could happen for the long-term health of the team.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Jul 10, 2009 9:49 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Anytime player's salaries become too big for the team....

Everyone has a value. The team has a value for the position, the player, the future and the salary cap. As does the player. A balance has to be found where they all work. We would be crazy if we ever thought it would work out in every case. That is why C.C. Brown and Demarcus Faggins play for other teams now. That is why Cato June, Dan Orlovsky and Antonia Smith now play for the Texans. That is why there is a rookie draft and some of those players will make the team and take the place of some of last years players. You brought up some great research because it seems like it always comes down to what another team is willing to pay, too. That is leverage for either the team or the player to use in their negotiations, depending on which side they fall. So, YES, we have to prepare ourselves to experience that in the near future with one of the premier players.

Anyways, I think the team is doing a great job in respect to their planning. In all cases of the players and positions that you mentioned, they have a contingency plan in place.

If they can’t re-sign Owen Daniels to a long-term contract, they went out and drafted two quality yet NFL-inexperienced tight ends who have the potential to develop. Meanwhile, OD is tied up by contract for one more year. If they can’t resign him, one year from now, they have two tight ends that have one year of NFL experience ready to pick up the ball. OD knows it, too. That is called leverage.

DeMeco Ryans is a special player, which gives him a lot of leverage. The Texans, while they have no one on the roster who can pretend to be the next DeMeco, they have done what they should to prepare for the possibility that they can’t re-sign him in the next year. They drafted a stud SLB and they have three quality WLB’s competing and I am sure that one of them is the contingency at MLB if DeMeco goes down during the season or, GASP, they cant re-sign him. But realistically, when it comes to leverage, I think DeMeco possesses the upper hand here. Realistically, and I am trying to put myself in his position right now, DeMeco is considering how much is enough and is there enough left over to share with my teammates so we can keep quality players and get to the playoffs. He is an elite player and more than any other player up for re-signing right now, he has to consider winning as one of his considerations in negotiations. In the near future, this same consideration will be Mario’s concern.

Dunta Robinson is a unique case in comparison to all of the others. He is a player who has performed extremely well, before his injury. But now, what are we to believe? This player has almost no leverage. That explains why he has not received an offer from another team. He is lucky that he was franchised, if you ask me. He now has the opportunity to play at an elite cornerback salary for one season to prove to the league that he is still capable of playing at his former level. He can stand pat on his contract situation in the meantime and wait. YES, this is risky, because he is taking the chance of experiencing a career-ending injury, but as I said, he has very little leverage. If he plays well, he gets back some leverage. Unfortunately for him, I don’t think the promise by the team of not being franchised next season, too, is coming. The team is not obligated to do that by any means, and it would be bad business to do it. However, we will see. I am interested to see how the Texans respond regarding that issue, probably more than any other issue. If I were the team, I would not give in on that point. They have the players in place for now and the future in case Dunta holds out and COME ON!!! Dunta is not going to pass on $10 million so he can sit down at home and watch the NFL on TV this season. What are the other options? Dunta returns and then injures himself in the first game and spends the rest of the season rehabilitating while he collects his $10 mill? Maybe…. Have we ever seen this happen before? Like I said above, he is lucky that he was franchised. If he can spend the season rehabilitating while being paid and then go out and pass the physical for another team next year, his options are open. If this scenario takes place, that will result in him getting his guarantee that the Texans will not franchise him. But, again, there is a chance that his value will have diminished so much that he will have lost that elite CB value. So, I am very interested in seeing how this game of chess plays out.

It will happen

by Rip Jersey on Jul 11, 2009 7:50 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You missed a little part of the equation, but you're close

Riott Quote "I think those are fair deals. Will they accept them? No, but if they did, let us take a look at our salary cap scenario for the 2009 season. DeMeco’s cap number would be $5.35 million, Dunta’s is $4.27 million, and Owen’s is $2.9 million. That allows us to just barely squeak by under the cap for the upcoming season, with probably less than a million dollars of cap space available (Remember, I am rounding). "

If you resign OD and Dunta to new contracts, the new amount counts against the cap and the one year deal does not. ie, under your proposal, Dunta resigning frees up $9.5 mill and OD frees up another couple.

by distant_texans_fan on Jul 12, 2009 6:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well,

“If we pretend that Owen never signed his RFA tender, then we have an unsigned O.D. this year and the cap space for 2009 is $12 million.”

I accounted for Owen’s RFA contract.

Also, as Dunta has not signed his 10 million franchise tender, I, as well as InTheBullseye.com, have not included his contract in this years cap analysis and future cap analysis.

I’m pretty sure I got it, just check it out again.

by Riott on Jul 12, 2009 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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