Football Outsiders on teh Schaub

by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 22, 2009 11:17 AM CDT

While Peter King continues to barely mention Schaub or pay him backhanded compliments, our friends at Football Outsiders have a much better opinion of him. Better, in fact, that Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan and the Manning brothers. Unfortunately, they're not as high on Steve Slaton, and deservedly so. There's also some interesting commentary on Chris Johnson in the piece as well. In any event, reading these guys is a breath of fresh air compared to Peter King and company.

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Wow. Good find

That commentary on Chris Johnson is a tasty little nugget regarding our d’s performance on him while he wasn’t breaking off a big one. On the 22 touches that didnt result in TDs, he accounted for only 2 first downs and had 9 plays of zero or negative yardage. The Brian Cushing effect?

by BigTexBD on Sep 22, 2009 11:38 AM CDT reply actions

Good question, B

So let’s see. Disclaimer: going purely off box score from nfl.com, not off tape.

I have Johnson being involved in plays 27 times. 9 completions, 2 incompletes, and 16 rushes.

Cushing was in on one of the incompletes and 4 passes. Results were:
+16 (Bennett T, Cushing A)
-4
0
8

Not bad. The other completions, aside from the 69 yard pass, were:
1 (Bennett)
3 (Dunta)
-2 (Diles)
-4 (Okoye)

Outside of the 69 yard pass, Cushing was in on the next two longest passes (again, no idea on who had coverage). A safe conclusion to draw would be, if Barber doesn’t give up the long TD, the team did an excellent job overall in controlling Johnson’s receptions. But, that’s part of the issue with a guy like Johnson: you want to try to give him the ball in space and let him break a tackle or two for a big play.

Rushing. 16 rushes total. One went for 57 and one went for 91, which leaves 14. Of these 14, Cushing was in on 5 with 3 tackles and 2 assists. Ironically, all three of the tackles came in the 4th Q. Of the three where he was primary:
+6 (Cushing, Wilson)
+4 (Cushing)
+4 (Cushing, Ryans)

For an average of 4.7 yards/rush. Not good. On assists:
+4 (Ryans, Cushing)
+4 (Smith, Cushing)

For 4.0 yards/rush. Better.

On other plays that weren’t TDs or involved Cushing:
-3 (Ryans)
+6 (Zgonina, Dunta)
+16 (Dunta)
-3 (Ryans)
0 (Diles)
-2 (Mario, Busing)
11 (Ryans)
0 (Williams)
2 (DelJuan)

Which comes out to 3 yards/carry.

Anybody want to take a shot at a conclusion?

Note to self: Insert something witty here.

by bigfatdrunk on Sep 22, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Nice number crunching, bfd

Obviously there’s still some room for improvement. However, even if Cushing’s numbers aren’t as good in an absolute sense, in my mind, the key question is how good are they compared to Morlon Greenwood. I would guess he stacks up pretty well there.

Also, I notice that the non TD/Cushing plays involve a lot more D-lineman, which leads me to the conclusion that Cushing was making at least some of these tackles after the running back had gotten to the second level.

Also, these numbers indicate a defense that isn’t historically bad, only extremely bad. Which is something.

What makes me optimistic, however, is reading things like Zeierlein’s report where he talks about Frank Bush scheming to cover defensive weaknesses and making halftime adjustments. We’re still an average defense talent-wise. The key is to play to that level of ability. If we do that, we have a shot at being a wild card team.

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by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 22, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions

yeah

I’ll probably be accused of libel – or something equally thoughtful like cattle rustling or bestiality, but here goes.

Cushing played a below average game til the 4th, when he was probably average. The apples to apples comparison would be Cushing vs. Diles last year, and even though Diles missed half the games, he was still 2nd on the team in tackles. The SLB is supposed to rack up a number of tackles. That he was second isn’t necessarily outstanding (nor is it bad).

OTOH, he did nut up in the 4th Q, and he was wrapping and finishing his tackles.

To answer B’s specific question, I don’t think stopping Johnson was the Brian Cushing Effect. If anything, it’s still the DeMeco Ryans Effect with some Mario thrown in. But I am more convinced than before this exercise we made intelligent adjustments and Cushing improved as the game progressed.

However, we are still talking about a truly below-average offense with the BE-SFs. It’s a victory – not necessarily Pyrrhic – but it’s something.

Note to self: Insert something witty here.

by bigfatdrunk on Sep 22, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions

good point.

but, lets remember, playing LB in college isnt the same as playing in college. and he had NO preseason PT. so since he was thrown into the fire as such, i think he performed well. IMO.

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by chrisd21 on Sep 22, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions

oh yeah

totally agree. if he plays all game like he did in the 4th, it WILL be a Cushing Effect. He’s still making rookie mistakes, but he’s a rookie.

Note to self: Insert something witty here.

by bigfatdrunk on Sep 22, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions

rec'd

more than the #‘s, is the fact that Cushing appeared to be all over the field. and he is surprisingly quick. and he has a good nose for the ball. and he’s pretty smart! when they went backside draw, instead of rushing the QB he stayed true to his gap, and made the play. i like him a lot, i think him, diles, and meco can grow into a damn good group. another good pick by smithiak… since we give em hell for all the bad ones. lol

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by chrisd21 on Sep 22, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions

Nice Breakdown

The defense’s mistakes were obviously more attributed to blown assignments rather than technique and poor angles. That is the good news about this defense. Missed assignments can be quickly corrected with more experience and time in the film room.

When the defense did not blow assignments, they were wrapping up and making plays.

Other than some bad angles on a couple of Crumpler receptions by Ryans and Cushing, the receivers were held in check along with White. I thought open field tackling was very crisp. Not too much YAC from what I saw.

It’s blatantly clear that Bush needs to REALLY work hard with the guys on defending draw plays as Johnson’s two running scores were both draws.

Antonio Smith has been a non-factor the first two games in stopping the run. This guy needs to step up.

by H-town Fanatic on Sep 23, 2009 3:08 AM CDT up reply actions

Now that I think about it

We did do a decent job of covering WRs. Then again, the Tits WRs are not the strength of their team.

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by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 23, 2009 7:49 AM CDT up reply actions

The function of the Tits WR

Is more like the pretty assistant of the magician, you look at her while the real action is going on somewhere else (ie CJ).

You can't fix Dumb

by Texans-Brocos on Sep 23, 2009 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions

True

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 23, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions

Is somebody obsessed?

I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?

by Rip Jersey on Sep 23, 2009 10:36 PM CDT up reply actions

Anyone else notice

that ESPN didn’t even run the highlights of the Texans game, during haltime of Monday night game? I watched the fastest three minutes twice to make sure I didn’t just miss it.

If you think education is expensive, try ignorance....

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Happy Now Tits?

by CFHTim on Sep 22, 2009 12:16 PM CDT reply actions