The Homers Circle - Looking for opportunity

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The dreaded letdown, it gets us again. So where does it go from here?

well after a night's rest to get over another tough loss, Im moving forward. Looking at my original season prediction of 10-6, heres how I had the season playing out at week 1:

Jets - Win
@Titans - Loss
Jags - Win
Raiders - Win
@Cardinals - Loss
@Bengals - Win
49ers - Loss
@Bills - Win
@Colts - Loss
Bye
Titans - Win
Colts - Win
@Jags - Win
Seahawks - Win
@Rams - Win
@Dolphins - Loss
Patriots - Loss

So we have lost 2 we should have won, and won one we shouldnt have. Leaving us 1 in the hole. So the way I see it they once again are going to have to steal one they shouldnt win. I think the next chance for that will be against the Cardinals. I dont really want to call the Raiders game a must win, but its as close to it as you can get at this stage of the season. They cant afford to fall 2 in the hole.

Raiders Game

Luckily for us the Raiders offense is struggling as much as our defense is. Russell is arguably the worst QB in the league right now, and has few passing weapons. McFadden is a speed guy and Michael Bush is a good between the tackles guy, making a 2 headed RBBC that is their best offensive weapon. On paper that looks bad as our rush defense is so horribly bad right now, but if we can focus on that, I dont think Russell can beat us. He makes too many mistakes. Their defense is very good against the pass and they have a top notch cornerback in Nnamdi Asomugha. I expect him to be on AJ like glue all game, which means big opportunities for Walter and Daniels. Also their rush defense is pretty bad(not nearly as bad as ours granted), so we NEED to get Slaton going on them early and often to open up the play action.

Prediction: The defense makes a small improvement coupled with a poor Oakland offense. Texans 24 Raiders 17.

Cardinals Game

My original prediction of a loss to these guys was based on their stellar play at the end of last season and the fact they still had all the offensive weapons intact. After 3 regular season games under their belt, I find the Cardinals looking alot more vulnerable than I previously though. This is why I think this game is a good opportunity for the Texans to steal one. Based on our poor defensive play, I see it being a shootout, which favors the Cardinals as Kurt Warner is very good at winning the shootout game and scoring at the end. They have little in the way of a rushing game so its gonna fall on our secondary to try and contain all those talented receivers they have. Frank Bush is going to have to help the secondary by blitzing and blitzing often. Warner is good at getting rid of the ball, but if you give him 5 seconds or more, hes going to tear our weak secondary apart.

The Cardinal defense is surprisingly good against the run, but pretty porous against the pass. Regardless our offense is a play action kind of team. We will need to get some attempts from Slaton and Brown to open up the passing game. I find Rogers-Cromartie highly overrated and he's been burned several times so far this season. We got to get AJ going deep on this guy.

Prediction: A good chance to steal one here, but I will hold to my first prediction of a shootout loss, Cardinals 31 Texans 24.

Bengals Game

The Bengals were pretty bad last year which led to them seeming to make our schedule easier this year. I find this misleading as their defense is actually pretty good. They beat the Steelers this past game, and should have beaten the Broncos if not for a miracle play. I think this is the next chance for a letdown game for the Texans. They will probably be coming off a loss to Baltimore and looking to turn things around against the Texans, once again not a good thing for us. Their offense has weapons, and while they havent been exactly in sync so far this year, if they do get it together they can be deadly. This is once again a game our defense can lose for us.

Prediction: I still find this game winnable for the Texans, and we have played them well in the past. Texans 28 Bengal 24.

49er Game

What a difference a year and an aggressive coach make. This is not the 49er club of 2008. This is now a physical, smashmouth kind of team. Their defense is very good against the run and will make it hard to get anything going with Slaton. On offense they have a QB who isnt very flashy, but manages the game well and wins games. Frank Gore is a beast and they will feature him all game. I see our defense getting gashed and pushed around all day, and our offense will struggle to run the ball, putting it all on Matt Schaub's shoulders to keep us in the game.

Prediction: We arent physical enough at this point to beat a team like this. 49ers 17 Texans 10.

Bills Game

The Bills are actually a little better than I thought they would be this year. After firing their offensive coordinator right before the season and with TO struggling I thought they would be a train wreck. They arent. Their defense is decent to slightly above average, and they have a good rushing attack with Fred Jackson and Lynch who will be back by the time we play them. It shouldnt be too cold just yet in Buffalo when this game goes down, so I dont expect a big advantage from weather. They have a decent cornerback and free safety, so we are going to need to spread the ball around in the air to keep them honest in coverage. Slaton needs to have a big game. Our defense could struggle to not get gashed by Jackson and Lynch, but I dont think Edwards is a good enough QB under pressure to beat us if the game is on the line. They do run the no huddle though, which could tire out our secondary. Reeves and Robinson are going to have to step up at some point.

Prediction: I find this to be a winnable game for the Texans, if they can win the turnover battle. Texans 24 Bills 14.

Colts Game

They have Peyton Manning. What else needs to be said. Unless the Texans defense grows up between now and then, I just dont see us being able to go toe to toe with Manning in their house. The Colts are playing as well as they ever are and their defense is surprisingly good against the pass. Our defense is going to have to avoid getting up big plays, and our offense needs to play ball control to have a chance to win. It will be a must to get the running game established and stick with it to keep Manning off the field as much as possible.

Prediction: I dont see us being able to stop Manning unless something changes between now and then. Colts 34 Texans 24


So there you have it. Unless the Texans can steal one hopefully from the Cardinals or 49ers, I see them sitting at 4-5 going into the bye, a game off the original 5-4 I was hoping to see them at. Bottom line is our defense is going to have to decide they are tired of being mocked, tired of losing games. Our offense is good enough to keep us in games, but if our defense cant make a stop, we cant win a bunch of shootouts. I dont see the season as lost by any means as some of the trolls do. I see us as 1 in the hole at the moment. Plenty of opportunity to make that up before the bye week, but they have to take care of business this week with the Raiders, no excuses.

The score is Homers 1 Haters 2. One look at the forums will show all the bandwagon fans jumping off again and those 'fans' who only post when they have something to bash out in full force. The Haters will never be satisfied, but I can see the Texans playing mad this week and giving us Homers a little faith.