2009 in Review: The Backfield
If two weekends ago was the death of the 2009 season, last weekend was a confirmation of it, one that you probably spent bemoaning the luck of the Jets to your friends and relatives.. Dealing with the fact that yes, there was football on TV. And no, the Texans were not going to be on later. Now that we're officially in the morgue, it's time for an autopsy. We can rebuild them. We have the money.
I'm going to look at every player who played more than 100 snaps for the Texans from a number of different angles. I'll give their regular statistics from this year and last year. Similarly, I will bring in Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders numbers (and projections in FO's case) for the last two years and compare them. A glossary of FO terms can be found here, and Pro Football Focus operates on a strict +/- system. Finally, I'll give my impressions on each of them as someone who has spent probably 100 hours each year watching the game tapes and filling in charting numbers for FO. For players with less than 100 snaps, I'll just give a brief summary. From this, I hope to give a balanced reading of each player's ability and relative value to the team.
Quarterbacks
Scouting: Despite the fact that he still makes some baffling throws while trying to force the ball to Andre Johnson, Schaub had a much better year holding onto the ball. I thought we might see him cap out as a turnover prone rollercoaster quarterback that was capable of great highs and great lows, but he really rounded out his game. Will Carroll said, and I'm paraphrasing, that Schaub wasn't any less dinged up than he was last year, he just kept playing anyway. Combine that toughness with the improvement of Duane Brown (we'll get into this later), and there were much fewer fumbles and no games missed. Hard to ask for a much better season than this.
Overall: Before the season, the debate was whether Schaub was a Top 10 quarterback or not. Now the better question might be: Which quarterbacks would you take over him for sure? For me, the list is three deep: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. C'mon now, this man is MADE. He's KILLIN all y'all jive turkeys.
(F*** it, I'm) Going Deep
Rex Grossman: In just 18 snaps, Grossman managed to destroy the Texans offense, their chances of winning the second Jacksonville game, and the rest of his career. It was the first time that he's ever been that efficient. The decision to trust him over Dan Orlovsky was ridiculous, both because Orlovsky has the better 2008 and because it was made over the shredding of Tampa Bay's 8th stringers in the last pre-season game. In a just world, the only places where Grossman would get work next year are the Florida Tuskers and perhaps the Raiders.
Dan Orlovsky: Orlovsky did not play at all in the NFL this year. He still looked promising in Detroit despite the safety everyone loves to laugh about. He threw some interceptions and took some sacks in the preseason, but he also completed 58.5% of his passes at 6.9 yards/attempt. I think there's still a decent backup quarterback here: more Tony Banks than Brad Banks. The mini-camps and preseason will be very telling though, especially now that he's had a full season in the system.
Chris Brown: Really needs to work on his form. Not only is there no touch on his passes, but he just doesn't seem to have good pocket awareness.
Running Backs
(Sorry about how small the RB sheets show up, blame them for running and catching. Click to zoom)
Scouting: While Slaton didn't seem to have the same burst as he had last year, he was definitely still running hard and wasn't an easy tackle. The fumbles don't seem to be a long-term issue, as it's not like there was much different last year asides from the extra weight and injury problems. He made nice crisp cuts and I think the PFF numbers sell his pass blocking a little short: he's about average.
Overall: How you feel about Slaton coming into next year definitely depends on how you feel about mulligans: the nerve injury, the added weight, and the offensive line are all legitimate excuses for the decline in his rushing (and increase in fumbles), but you can't completely absolve him of blame either. 50th, by the way, is dead last. He was dead last among all backs with over 100 carries in DYAR, DVOA, and Success Rate.
I think he's much better than his 2009 statistics. I find optimism in his numbers in the receiving game, which still say that when he gets the breathing space he needs, he's a tough matchup. If anyone needs a quick start to 2010, it's him. The more games he can go without fumbling early on, the more at ease Kubiak will feel about him. I don't think he'll ever be a dominant back, but there are 15 good carries a game here, as well as a great 3rd down back/screen guy. Let this career arc be a warning to people who want to sign Bernard Pollard to a long multi-year contract after 12 decent games.
(Leach isn't projected in FOA 2009 because he's a fullback, and didn't qualify for DVOA ranks on passing in 2008)
Scouting: As I said in the last Charting Notes, Leach was a step slow all year and I wouldn't be surprised at all if it came out that he was playing through an injury. His run blocking definitely suffered as he blew quite a few assignments, though he was a reliable safety valve for Schaub on the play-action dumpoff, albeit one that had no chance of doing much after he caught the ball. He was a problem this year.
Overall: It's an open question whether the Texans should keep Leach. If he was hiding an injury, then I think it makes sense to keep him. If he wasn't, it's not a devastating cap charge to release him and try to find a new fullback since he's in the last year of his deal. He's right about 30, and while some fullbacks have played forever, blocking doesn't tend to be a skill that fluctuates wildly unless an injury has occurred. If I were running the Texans, I'd be sniffing around for replacements. Knowing how the actual Texans are run, I bet we'll see him back next year.
Chris Brown
Scouting: There were the foibles that wrecked games, such as The HB Pass, getting stuffed on 4th and goal in Arizona, and fumbling on 2nd and goal against Jacksonville, but more than anything, the frustration of having Chris Brown see 200+ snaps came because he simply didn't add anything to the team. His running repertoire consisted of going forward 2 yards and falling down . He couldn't pass block, as much as Kubiak wanted to pretend he could. He's an abysmal screen option. His presence on the field was akin to a washed up nineties celebrity getting to host a game show on GSN, and even that at least has a pathetic novelty to it that Brown doesn't.
Overall: FO nailed their projection almost completely, except for the part about Brown getting double the snaps that they thought he would. If he plays a down of NFL football next year, the Mayans might be right about 2012.
(PFP 2008 did not run a Moats projection)
Scouting: Moats has an excellent burst off the line and gets low enough to take quite a few hits and spin out of them. He does give up on a few plays a little too early. I don't think much of him at all in pass protection, which limits his 3rd down back capabilities in my eyes.
Overall: While I like Moats, there are a lot of factors against his return here. He's a shifty quick back, which would be great if Arian Foster and a healthy Steve Slaton didn't already give that to the Texans. He can't really pass protect, to the point where Kubes was more comfortable with Brown, which is pretty damning. He hadn't put up a year anywhere near this before, especially in the screen game, which makes me wonder if this was his career year. He's not old, but he's not young either. Add it up and I think you've got a decent third string running back, but he might be better off on a team that has power runners. I certainly wouldn't mind having him around training camp again or anything.
Arian Foster
Scouting: Foster delivers a surprising amount of power for a player of his stature. He proved that he could get yards not only by absorbing hits, but also delivering them. He flashes great hands out of the backfield, and should be a reliable screen target in his own right, which means that defenses can't key on it coming only when Slaton is on the field next year. He's medicore at pass blocking, but he's not a liability there or anything. In summation: he's about as impressive a half-season player as I've ever charted.
Overall: I'm very interested to see what happens with Foster next year. He and Slaton share a lot of similarities, especially if Slaton can get back on track in the run game. I think he's got a chance to unseat Slaton because of how impressive the end of the year was. It's going to be strange having two essentially similar backs, and my main prediction right now is that it drives Fantasy Football owners crazy.
(F*** it, I'm) Going Deep
Chris Henry: I was never really impressed with him and thought he was an enormous overdraft in the 2007 second round. He was barely on the field at Arizona until his senior year. I ended up charting about a half game with him in 2007 and he made that Texans run defense look a lot better than it was asides from one long run. If he ever makes it up past practice squad player again, I'll be surprised.
Jeremiah Johnson: His name was Jeremiah Johnson, and they say he wanted to be a football player. The story goes that he was a decent all-purpose back of proper height and build, suited to running back duties. Nobody knows where abouts he come from and don't seem to matter much. He was a young man and ghostly stories about the tall hits that injured him were a cautionary tale far and wide. He was looking for an NFL job, 50 snaps or better. He settled for the practice squad, but damn, it was a genuine football player, you couldn't go no better. Bought him a good helmet, and those stretchy armpads, and some nice shiny steel blue cleats, and said good-bye to whatever life was down there below.
Next: Wide receivers and tight ends.
3 recs |
68 comments
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Comments
Do Pollards seemingly solid 2 years in KC
amount to nothing when evaluating him for a long term contract? Do these years not count?
Season Team Tackles Interceptions Fumbles
G GS Comb Total Ast Sck SFTY PDef Int Yds Avg Lng TDs FF
2008 Kansas City Chiefs 16 16 98 78 20 0.0 — 1 1 0 0.0 0 0 3
2007 Kansas City Chiefs 16 15 90 74 16 1.0 1 7 2 23 11.5 21 0 1
I mean this is a guy who got picked 2nd in the draft right? /rant
www.manningface.com
GODDAMNIT
why does space mean post? gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. Anywho, its not like Pollard has only ever had one good season.
www.manningface.com
He's had 3/4ths of a good season with us though
We do not run KC’s scheme, so I don’t see the previous seasons as completely relevant.
More importantly, he was cut by the Chiefs, and had “character issues” there, although the Texans picked him up (which is pretty damning of how important those character issues are, since they never pick up anyone too crazy). There’s just way too much smoke there for me to want to hand someone a big extension based on 12 solid games.
I know we’re all excited seeing what it’s like having a real safety, but my point was just that it’s awfully quick to go handing out a big deal, just like it was when people thought Slaton needed a new deal soon after his rookie year.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jan 12, 2010 11:54 AM CST up reply actions
IF we dont use the franchise tag on OD or Meco
What about using it on Pollard to see if he can duplicate the success he had with the team?
Would that be spending too much? Should we offer him an average one-year contract instead? And if we do that, what are the chances that he would actually sign with us and not with a team who offers him a multi-year deal.
He's an RFA. It's gonna be a big draft.
Slap him with a second round tender unless he’s willing to sign a favorable deal.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jan 12, 2010 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
Just glancing at the $s
I think a non-exclusive f-tag on Pollard would run about $4.8M. A second-round tender is $1.417M.
I always assumed "You're The Reason God Made Oklahoma" would be some sort of country music diss track. Live and learn, I guess.
My thoughts exactly
When you’re taking the average salary of the top 5 players at his position….well he isn’t one of them. I think the second round tender is a way better option than even considering the exorbitant franchise tag salary hit
In Canada our balls are bigger
by canadian texan on Jan 12, 2010 3:42 PM CST up reply actions
I never understood the "give Slaton a new deal"
thing last year, considering rookies are not allowed to renegotiate after their team’s final game of the second season following the signing of the contract.
I always assumed "You're The Reason God Made Oklahoma" would be some sort of country music diss track. Live and learn, I guess.
I'm sick of it in general with the league
ala Ryan Grant holding out after one good year. Hold outs are getting ridiculous in the league.
www.manningface.com
2nd
round
I always assumed "You're The Reason God Made Oklahoma" would be some sort of country music diss track. Live and learn, I guess.
thats what I meant
Didn’t get a chance to proofread because I tried to use tab like a moron and hit space and it posted.
www.manningface.com
I figured as much.
I was just putting it out there so no one called you a retard.
I always assumed "You're The Reason God Made Oklahoma" would be some sort of country music diss track. Live and learn, I guess.
I miss watching Jeremiah Johnson's stiff arm.
But the way he played in college is what contributed to his downfall.
hopefully we do see him in action.
Rec'd
for referencing not only “Encore,” but the odd spoken part in the song.
I always assumed "You're The Reason God Made Oklahoma" would be some sort of country music diss track. Live and learn, I guess.
nice writeup, very informative. I agree about Moats mostly. He doesnt give you anything Slaton doesnt do a little better. I’d let him go and draft a guy in the 3-4th round and hope for a 3 headed monster at RB.
Be judgmental about the actions of the past, be hopeful about the actions of the future. -The Homers Creed
does rivers writing
equal more charts?
I like charts.
Mount Cody in round 1
I'm definitely pumping them out for this series
Afterwards, we’ll see.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jan 12, 2010 3:10 PM CST up reply actions
I'll get around to reading it
but the charts made me think of the epic AJ post and I got distracted.
Mount Cody in round 1
charts are fun
I wasn’t being sarcastic.
Mount Cody in round 1
I appreciate Matt Schaub
But obviously there’s NO WAY that San Diego would give up Philip Rivers to get Schaub. Ever heard of two-time Super Bowl champeen, Big Ben? And Aaron Rodgers is also better.
He is a top-ten QB.
by carsonwayne on Jan 12, 2010 2:05 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Zuh?
Big Ben is only “better” in the sense that he’s enough of a lummox that he can take 73 sacks/game and not die. Having two rings != better QB.
I always assumed "You're The Reason God Made Oklahoma" would be some sort of country music diss track. Live and learn, I guess.
and whatever definition you use
the fat burger is never a better QB than teh Schaub.
Throw the rings out there as evidence.
signed, VYFB.
Mount Cody in round 1
Okay
But to me the Phil Rivers-Matt Schaub thing plays out as one of those old Bill Simmons trade column jokes: Who hangs up the phone first?
Roethlisberger has taken a lot of hits, and I think long-term durability concerns put him behind Schaub (imagine writing that a year ago, ha!)
With Rodgers, again, I think they are close but I don’t think it’s really a big difference. Which is why I made it a point to post “how many of them would you take over Schaub FOR SURE?”
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jan 12, 2010 3:13 PM CST up reply actions
I like Rodgers' mobility
but I think if teh Schaub played 12 games v. the NFC he’d murder it even more than he does now.
Better is yet to be seen in this battle. I give the edge to Schaub as it sits right now.
Mount Cody in round 1
Rec'd
And not just for the “everyone relax about Bernard Pollard” line.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
Maybe this is an odd request
But, Dr McCown, I think you are the guy that can do it. I like your analysis, btw. I would like to see if you can take it one step further. Let me try to spell it out.
Can you give each player an overall grade, such as A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, and so on, all the way to F? Where a A = 4, B = 3, C = 2 and so on. Then, can you come up with an average per position, as in all RBs, all QBs, all C/OGs, all OTs, all WRs and so on.? I am thinking in the per position calculation, use the number of players that the team typically carries as active on game day, plus one. Where I am going with this is, I think it could be a valuable tool in determining the off-season needs of the team. It would might be a good analytical tool for determining what the needs are in terms of free agency and the draft.
I know, it sounds dumb, but it is something I have been thinking about, but I don’t have near the insight on something like this as you.
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
I'm not really wild about the grading systems
It just seems sort of…early 2000’s CNNSI.
To put it another way, I don’t think you’ll have any problems figuring out what I think the need areas on the team are. Haha.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jan 12, 2010 3:23 PM CST up reply actions
As long as it's the O-line, no prob...
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
blasphemy
to suggest the offense has any flaws!
Its all the defense’s fault! And this is the only discussion where the coaches are allowed to be blamed instead of the players, defense!
Mount Cody in round 1
I blame Smith
….cause it’s what I do. If we can mold Barwin into a starter, I say the sooner the better.
In Canada our balls are bigger
by canadian texan on Jan 12, 2010 3:44 PM CST up reply actions
its nice that
after 2008 season our DE (along with our current DT and CB) situation was a grave concern, and now that seems to be strong enough.
So if the same progress is made in the CB/DT situation, we may be able to take a flier on a WLB!
Drafting offensive players is so cliche.
Mount Cody in round 1
re: Barwin
I think he’s the reason we’re able to take Mt. Cody in round 1.
The knock on him is he’s a 2 down NT, which is exactly what we need, since whatever NT we have will only play on those two downs because of Mr. Barwin.
Mount Cody in round 1
If he gets past the 15th round we should probably pick someone else first
If he gets past the 15th pick? Oh absolutely, I haven’t seen a mock yet where he doesn’t. The highest I’ve seen him is 25.
Then again, IMO, mock draft sites are really bad with dlinemen that don’t rack up sacks as far as their value.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jan 12, 2010 3:56 PM CST up reply actions
I've seen him go 15-25.
The combine’s gonna be a big factor. I think Tennessee’s Dan Williams will impress and pass Cody if Cody shows up out of shape and lazy.
the real question is
who is worth picking in the first 3 rounds after those 2 at NT? So far the answer seems to be no one, which makes me feel like we can’t pass either of those guys up if they fall to us.
www.manningface.com
which guarantees
we will pass them up, and pick someone nobody here wants, who’ll end up being DROY, and we’ll all hail the genius that is Smithiak.
Mount Cody in round 1
Williams hasn't 100% surpassed Cody...
but I’m willing to bet at the Combine: Williams will be a big winner and Cody’s gonna show up out of shape (which helps Cody drop a bit….maybe to us?)
As for NT….those 2 are the best of the big mountains. There are a lot of other DTs (Suh, McCoy, and UCLA’s Brian Price).
I’m really starting to believe that Williams or Cody will land in Houston in the 1st round.
there's no way
he’s around in the 15th round.
I had a longer response, but I see rivers beat me to it.
So, 15th pick, yes. He’ll be there.
I thought we were 20th before the coin toss? What is the highest we can be?
Mount Cody in round 1
We're Locked In At No. 20
Or so I thought.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
it looks like
we could jump over the Falcons for the 19 spot, if we pick tails.
Mount Cody in round 1
this yahoo answers thing
says the toss occurs during the combine.
I envy quality sources. What’s your source?
Mount Cody in round 1
Matt mentioned it here..
But I know I saw it somewhere else:
http://www.battleredblog.com/2010/1/9/1242536/open-thread-wild-card-saturday#28517856
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
I saw it
on NFLN’s pregame show. Not the toss, but the result. Weirdness.
I always assumed "You're The Reason God Made Oklahoma" would be some sort of country music diss track. Live and learn, I guess.
well I met
the definition of “proof” according to BigBadBrad.
Two places on the internet.
Mount Cody in round 1
BANNED!
Two places on the internet, for him, normally means where he mentioned it twice.
Sorry to get you for the technicality,
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
I guess I should have
used him as one of my sources, you know, to make it more believable.
Mount Cody in round 1
It's totally possible...
that NFLN was just listing teams with them slotted in and the “(coin toss)” designation was to let viewers no that it was subject to change. Dunno. Lame if so.
I always assumed "You're The Reason God Made Oklahoma" would be some sort of country music diss track. Live and learn, I guess.
I'm starting the rumor
that we’re picking 19th.
Mount Cody in round 1
Fuck it, go deep
and claim 13th, just to see who is paying attention.
I always assumed "You're The Reason God Made Oklahoma" would be some sort of country music diss track. Live and learn, I guess.
Rex Grossman approves this post
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
Good then we can get Dan Williams instead of Cody
Actually somehow I keep seeing mock drafts where neither of those two are taking until really late.
www.manningface.com
Skin that one, pilgrim, and I’ll get you another!
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
Glad someone got that reference
Debated taking it out.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jan 12, 2010 3:14 PM CST up reply actions
That movie
was the major reason I was excited when we signed him
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
































