I just had a revelation
by Nashmeister on Jan 4, 2010 2:45 AM CST
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PrintI was considering the idea that every playoff team in the AFC with the exception of the Bengals (who we beat) has more talent than we do, which I happen to agree with. I tried to figure out why this might be the case, and then it struck me: Rick Smith has done a pretty piss-poor job. I'm not sure if it's coach opinions, scouts, or him, but has anyone taken a look at our 2007 and 2008 drafts lately?
It's probably too early to judge the 2008 draft. The jury is still out on Brown. I think he's serviceable, but "serviceable" shouldn't be the end-all with first-round picks. Molden hasn't seen the light of day outside of special teams. Okam is a non-factor, Adibi can't beat out a mediocre Diles despite being better physically suited for the job, and Barber couldn't find his way to the top of a depth chart if Brian Russell and Busing were all that was standing between them. We were all pumped last year when Slaton was good, but who knows how that will turn out.
Do I even need to get into free agency? Chris Brown, Ahman Green, the trade for Chris Myers... And while I applaud not giving in and giving Dunta a big long-term contract--still, $10 million for that? The Andre Davis extension? Orlovsky? Still no DeMeco deal?
The more I think about it, the less I think of his GM ability. Props for Cushing, I suppose. Although most pundits had us taking him anyways. I'll go ahead and give him an A on the Schaub deal and the Pollard pick-up as well. Maybe a mediocre grade for Reeves (I like him, but he gets paid a lot for a guy who seems to have been demoted), Duane Brown, and Antonio Smith (although I'm actually pretty high on him).
Yes, I get that this team was in shambles when he got here. I considered the New Orleans comparison again because it sort of annoys me, and I was disappointed in what I found. This year, we have four (4) players remaining on our roster from that 2-14 nightmare (although next year it'll most likely be whittled down to just one, assuming Dunta, Kris Brown, and Chester Pitts are out). My hypothesis was that New Orleans still had several players on their team from before 2006. The truth though? They're down to just five of those guys. They had to clean shop as well.
I hate to put a damper on the mood considering this monumental 9-7 season and whatnot. But with all the blame that has been put on Kubiak over the years, Rick Smith seems to have gotten a major pass throughout it all. All I ever hear about him around here is, "well, he's done a great job in the draft, but he's not so slick in free agency."
I'd say the 2-14 team had holes at every position on the field except #1 receiver, CB (regardless of how you feel about Dunta now, it was true then), and LG. When the dust settled, the 2006 draft (and the Kevin Walter acquisition) left us set at #1 WR, #2 WR, LG, CB, DE, MLB, RT, and TE. Enter Rick Smith: the year is 2010; the Texans are still reaping the benefits from that 2006 draft. Unfortunately Pitts, Kevin Walter, DeMeco, OD, and Pollard will all be free agents. Not all of them will be re-signed, obviously. So I pose the question: how has Rick Smith improved this team?
He found us a quarterback. That's pretty damn important, so nicely done I suppose. He found us an injury-prone free safety (if I were a dick, I'd throw that tag on Schaub too). He found us a pretty good, albeit slightly overpaid DE to play across from Mario. He found us a decent left tackle; also important, but he had to spend a first-rounder to do it. He found us a pro-bowl strong-side linebacker. He might have found us a dynamic receiver and returner, but nothing is guaranteed with Jacoby.
But despite all that, we go into next season needing to resign DeMeco, Pollard, and OD for certain. He needs 2-3 interior linemen (one of the higher-paid positions in football if you want a good one), a RB, a CB, and a DT. Oh, and a kicker!
Things will change drastically if there's an uncapped year, of course. But I worry for this team. We had enough good draft picks in 2006 to the point that we can't afford to pay them all, and we've had too few good draft picks since them to be able to replace them with lower-paid players. Rick Smith needs to find a way to keep the talent coming in.
How do you evaluate the job he has done?
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Whoa, whoa, whoa.
I would agree that the team lacks depth, but that’s not the same thing as lacking talent. I’d pit our top-end talent against the best in the league (Schaub, Andre, OD, a healthy Mario, even Cushing… etc). Like you said, we have a number of big holes, but very few teams can approach the quality of our best players.
Part of this is because we are still a young franchise. It’s also because our growth in the first several seasons was, to say the least… stunted. Remember, Rick Smith has only been the GM since 2006.
I think right now we have a good foundation of top-end talent, we just need to round out the team by plugging holes with average-to-good players where we have bad ones instead.
I don't think depth is the biggest problem right now.
Outside of interior O-line and safety, at least. He’s done a nice job of using late-round picks to round out the roster; guys like Diles, Quin, Caldwell, etc. But what I’m looking for is a draft pick every year that just sticks. Somebody who lets you know that you don’t need to even consider looking at that position early on for the next few years. We got four of them in that 2006 draft—that’s excessive. In 2007 though? I still don’t see one. We went pass-rushing DT that year, but we still need somebody who can get pressure up the middle. We went LT in 2008, but Freeney still destroys us. I don’t think we’re at the point where we need to replace terrible starters any more (unless you count Kris Brown)—that era ended once Faggins left. We do, however, need to upgrade from mediocre to good.
Whupps.
That should have been: let’s not judge the game based on the box score.
And watching the game I in no way had the impression he destroyed brown. In fact as I remember it Brown did a fairly good job against one of the premiere pass rushers in the league.
by nolander on Jan 4, 2010 4:57 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Strawman much?
Let’s perform a little thought exercise. Let’s take the Texans roster from the last day of the 2005 season and compare it with the roster today. Then, let’s compare the talent level of the two rosters at every position.
If, as you say, Smith has done a piss-poor job, how do you account for the fact that we are better at virtually every single position? If Smith isn’t responsible for that, who is?
Let’s start with the ’06 draft. That draft gave us Williams, DeMeco, OD, David Anderson and Winston.
In ‘07, we picked up three full- or part-time starters (Amobi, Studdard, Diles) plus one big-time contributor in Jacoby. You might say that Amobi is a bust, but I don’t agree. He had an off year last year but this year has turned into a solid starter. Keep in mind that he’s only like 15 years old, too. Way too early to give up on him.
In ’08, we again picked up three guys who ended up starting as well: Brown, Slaton and Barber.
In ’09, besides Cushing, we also picked up four other guys who have had an impact: Barwin, Caldwell, Quin and McCain.
I think that’s a pretty solid history. I would go so far as to say that if you compared it to any other GM in the league, it would stack up pretty well.
Smith hasn’t been as good in free agency, but he hasn’t been a horrible failure. I’d like to see some comparison of his free agent success rate with other GMs before I unleash on him. He’s signed some bad players, to be sure, but a lot of them were upgrades over the talent the team had at the time. He did very well with Antonio Smith and Bernard Pollard, for example, and he should get credit for bringing in Schaub and guys like Dreessen.
All in all, I totally disagree. If you want to argue that he’s a bad GM because he hasn’t already signed all the guys he brought in becuase they’ve been so good that he can’t re-sign them, then it’s kind of hard to argue that he’s been bad at his job.
The Texans.
by tehGrindCrusher on Jan 4, 2010 8:40 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
You're crediting Smith with the 2006 draft.
He wasn’t appointed until a month and a half after that. It might not have been all Charlie Casserly’s doing, but it certainly wasn’t Rick Smith who landed that jack-pot for us. Mario and DeMeco—those are difference makers. Those are the kind of players you need to land with your high draft picks. Cushing was one of them, but Okoye? He’s just a guy. Just like Shaun Cody and Travis Johnson (yea, I went there).
Diles earned his spot, so I can’t rag on him. But Studdard? Again, starting because of injuries and a lack of depth at OG. Barber? He had to be replaced (twice—by Busing once) before he made it back due to injuries. I said I wouldn’t get into the 2009 draft, and I’m gonna stick to that. I’ve got a lot of hope for Barwin, Caldwell, and Quin. But then again, I had a lot of hope for Okoye and Bennett.
All in all, I totally disagree. If you want to argue that he’s a bad GM because he hasn’t already signed all the guys he brought in becuase they’ve been so good that he can’t re-sign them, then it’s kind of hard to argue that he’s been bad at his job.
Aside from Pollard, those weren’t guys he has brought in. He has brought in depth, but you need a difference-maker in every draft. I’m not seeing anything that resembles that from 2007 or 2008.
Some of your assumptions are messing with my head
1st, you are absolutely right about the 2006 Draft. It is out of this discussion, as Smith wasn’t on board yet. But Casserly gets zero credit for anything involving that draft, other than ordering the cheese and crackers for the war room.
You have repeatedly referenced certain players as only starting because of injuries or being a non-factor (Studdard, Barber, Okam). Yet these are all 5th and 6th Round picks from the 2007 & 2008 drafts. It seems as though your assumption is that after 2-3 years, most 5th and 6th rounders should be difference-makers or legitimate starters. This puzzles me.
I think the biggest problem that you are having with the drafts Smith has presided over stems from the Schaub trade. Smith has been in charge for 3 drafts, and he had no 2nd round picks in the first 2 of those 3. Typically, most people expect starters and difference-makers from your picks in rounds 1-3 (Belichick disagrees though).
So the only 2nd rounder that Smith has picked is Conner Barwin, whom you seem to think was a good pick. But aside from a DROY type of performance (Cushing), it’s pretty difficult to judge that after only seeing a draft pick in his rookie season.
I would even argue that Quin is already a legitimate NFL starting QB in year 1, and credit that to Smith as a 4th round pick 8 months ago.
If the Treasury Secretary doesn't have to pay taxes, then why do I?
I like Quin.
I’ve made no secret of that. But remember, Bennett was pretty nasty his rookie year as well, then he fell off the face of the earth. That’s why I decided to discuss the 2007 draft for the most part, since we have gotten to see those guys in action for three years now.
And I’m not implying that those second-day picks should be difference-makers. I’m mostly concerned with his first-round picks.
Re: Amobi
In evaluating him, please consider that he is younger than Suh, playing a position where it generally takes a 22 year old 2-4 seasons to really develop. Point being, even if it would be proper to decide who was and was not a bust from the 07 crop right now under normal circumstances, the calculus changes when the player in question starts off at 19 (on draft day).
Jim Caldwell delenda est.
by MDC on Jan 4, 2010 1:37 PM CST up reply actions
I actually wrote something about that...
then deleted it because I didn’t want to seem like I was throwing a ton of excuses out there. But, yeah, agreed.
Jim Caldwell delenda est.
by MDC on Jan 4, 2010 2:35 PM CST up reply actions
Lazy bastard
That would have saved me some typing in the response below.
If the Treasury Secretary doesn't have to pay taxes, then why do I?
I think people can start fairly evaluating Amobi
Next season when his body has finally caught up to his NFL experience. Hopefully, the Texans find a small mountain to put next to him.
I definitely think Amobi took steps forward this season.
re: 1st Round picks
OH….first, I just realize the QB in my last sentence of the comment above (re: Quin) should be CB. Although, I would also argue that Quin is a better QB than Jamarcus.
Your OP and reply to tGC both listed more complaints about Smith regarding players selected in rounds 4-7. So (no sarcasm intended), you will have to forgive me (and others) for not interpreting that you are “mostly concerned with his first-round picks.”
So we should just break this debate down to Cushing, D. Brown, and Okoye. I am guessing that unless you are scared of a Bennett-like regression for Cushing, that you consider him a damn fine pick.
So on to Duane Brown. Is he the best LT evar in the NFL? No. Were we able to fill a desperately needed starting-LT position with a 1st round pick? Yes. (And we also turned the trade-down to later R1 pick and new R3 pick into Steve Slaton.) So even as subjective as this whole thing is, I still can’t see how this pick is graded poorly.
For Amobi Okoye, I will basically default to what MCD just posted ^ while I was typing this comment. And I would add that Amobe has become a well above-average UT, who could be made into an NFL superstar just by lining up a Kris Jenkins Terrance Cody true NT next to him. But there really haven’t been any opportunities to acquire such a player in the past 1-2 years (draft or FA), unless you’re Dan Snyder. (I’d also ad that Smith was hampered in this effort by having to pay that sorry lump of shit Travis Johnson since his arrival as GM. Hell, I would give him an above-average GM rating simply based on the fact that we got rid of Travis this year for a draft pick.)
{NOTE: I have a feeling that you might be less critical if Smith had some DeMecos as his R2 picks, if there were more than 1 (of 3 years). And again, I really think this lack of potential badasses from R2 is biasing your judgement. But if that is the case, then we should also look at Schaub as a R2 pick (or two) along with Barwin. And I’d say that Schaub is a difference-making, ass-kicking MF.}
If the Treasury Secretary doesn't have to pay taxes, then why do I?
My bad on the 2006 draft
That blunder aside, I think my point remains. The best way to analyze this would be to compare his record with those of other GMs.
Also, I don’t buy into the idea that you need a difference-maker in every draft. FO research suggests that it is more important to build depth through the draft than to get a so-called difference-maker. I think the record shows that Smith has done well at that.
As far as guys from the 2007-2008 draft classes being difficult to re-sign, it’s about a year too early to make that evaluation imo. It may not be hard to re-sign someone like Studdard, but I could see us having problems with guys like Okoye, Brown, Barber and Slaton depending on how they play next year.
Ultimately the best way to settle this is to compare the productivity of players that Smith has drafted to the productivity of players drafted by other GMs in the same period. I don’t really feel like doing it myself, but maybe someone else is inclined to do it.
The Texans.
by tehGrindCrusher on Jan 5, 2010 6:12 AM CST up reply actions
I haven't really been looking for anyone to blame...
Seeing as how this team has been more successfull by far with Kubiak and Smith than they were without. I don’t need a fallguy, i’m actually happy to be a fan of a team that would have to go back 3 years to remember what it’s like to root for a losing team. A large part of where you end up in life has to do with where you started, Kubiak and crew started with garbage and I at least am thankfull for them having taken us this far.
Not every player can be a winner or difference maker
That’s a fact.
I think you listed enough moves that Smith has made to fill holes in this Texans team to say that he has at least done his job. Considering the team he inherited and the hamstringing that he had to get through, as in losing two 2nd round picks to get Schaub, his part in drafting has been very good. I can’t disagree with how he has handled free agent negotiations. With the exception of Dunta getting the $10 mill and then doing nothing to show that he deserved it, I can’t say Smith has botched any contract moves. I will agree that Antonio Smith’s pay-scale is on the high side, but certainly not overly excessive. He filled a slot that the defense sorely needed.
The current holes and contracts that this team has are no different from what other teams experience due to injuries and contract negotiations. One thing I can say, is just like every other business in this world, it is always changing. That requires and ever changing plan. What we thought before the season, half-way through the season and at the end of the season are not the same. I have a lot of confidence that Smithiak will get the team through the off-season in good shape and having the fan-base looking forward to the start of the next season.
The bottom line; managing an NFL football team is a fluid, always-changing project. The talent-level of the current team is at an all-time high. The holes are evident. I have confidence that Rick Smith can negotiate through this off-season and fill those holes as well as anyone.
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
by Rip Jersey on Jan 4, 2010 11:39 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I will say this about one thing, though
I think Rick Smith is as guilty as Gary Kubiak in their inaction to address the PK situation during the season, better. I don’t know if there was an alternative out there. All I know is, it wasn’t explored. If it was, it wasn’t publicized.
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
I can't agree or disagree here
But I’ll say this. What is the objective point at which a PK is in a slump they can’t get out of (Brad Lidge style), especially a guy who was absolutely an automatic kicker for 7.4 seasons?
It definitely wasn’t before the Week 6 trade deadline. So it still would have meant signing some Renaldo-wanna-be off the street.
If the Treasury Secretary doesn't have to pay taxes, then why do I?
I would GLADLY take your talent base and development the last 4 years as opposed to ours in Seahawk land.
We just fired a GM who I actually thought was doing pretty good, but he wasn’t doing great. Paul Allen’s money demands “great.” But I compare his drafts and signings with yours and I think Houston has made more significant improvements overall.
We’re still searching for a LT, a LG to replace Hutchinson, and a DT, not to mention Curry was about a quarter the player Cushing was in year one.
Count your blessings.
Our last few first round picks—
2009 – LB Aaron Curry, 4th overall, a bust thus far given he was 4th overall.
2008 – DE Lawrence Jackson, 28th overall, barely a starter and not particularly good against the run or pass.
2007 – traded for Deion Branch, who has never been healthy since becoming a Seahawk.
2006 – CB Kelly Jennings – a nickleback with terrible ball skills.
Hmm. I’ll trade you ours for yours?
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by Tyler Jorgensen on Jan 4, 2010 4:01 PM CST reply actions 3 recs
We're Texans fans
We specialize in being unhappy with the team and not seeing the forest for the trees because, well, until recently, the forest has been more like a clear cut. Thanks for the perspective.
I should point out with a smirk that quite a few people here were very high on Curry before the draft.
The Texans.
by tehGrindCrusher on Jan 5, 2010 6:13 AM CST up reply actions
Re: Curry
He had issues this year and his rookie season was underwhelming, but labeling anyone — especially a guy with those physical tools — a bust after one season on a very sub-par (sorry w.c.) team is insane. Even saying he’s a bust thus far is nonsense; he did not meet expectations in year 1. That’s it.
All of which is to say, don’t be surprised if he still becomes an absolute stud in the next two years.
Jim Caldwell delenda est.
by MDC on Jan 5, 2010 8:19 AM CST up reply actions
I don't agree with the long-term bust label...
…but considering the USC trio’s immediate impact, I’d have to say Seahawk fans have every right to be angry.
That said, if he gets his head on straight, AC should bring the heat in the next few years.
Sure
I have nothing against him and I have no idea how he’ll turn out. I certainly wasn’t predicting great things or spectacular failure for him (or Cushing for that matter).
I just felt like being a dick.
The Texans.
by tehGrindCrusher on Jan 5, 2010 11:05 AM CST up reply actions
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