Do The Texans Have To Win The AFC South To Make The Playoffs?
by Mike Kerns on Oct 27, 2010 5:00 PM CDT
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Something I heard Charlie Pallilo talking about on the drive home yesterday was that for the Texans to finally become a playoff team this season, they likely wouldn't be getting in as a Wild Card. No, with the Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Patriots and whoever comes out of the lousy AFC West all looking to end up with better records than the Texans, a wild card spot is probably unlikely.
Sure, it's still early in the season but that's a hell of an assumption to make. Do you think Houston will end up with a better record than the four other teams listed up there? Anything less than 11 wins may leave you on the outside looking in this year if you aren't a division champ.
So, can the Texans win the AFC South? Let's take a look after the jump...
With arguably the hardest part of the schedule remaining and the black cloud hanging over Reliant Stadium with the feeling that the bottom is about to drop out on this team, a division title seems quite ambitious. I would think that their best shot is to do no worse than 4-2 within the division. That means no losing to a crap team like Jacksonville this year and splitting with both Tennessee and Indianapolis. Needless to say, a sweep of the Colts would make this a lot more feasible. In my opinion, no way in the kingdom of Durga are the Texans going to sweep the Titans. It just will not happen. In fact, I am of the mind that it may be the other way around.
So in my theory, we need to sweep the Colts (that just feels weird to type...), sweep the Jags and then with Tennessee, you're playing with house money. You can't drop games to teams like San Diego and Denver, who are just flat out disasters. Then you pray to split a fou- game stretch that consists of the Jets, Titans, Eagles and Ravens...you done laughing yet?
Even if that happens, you're still looking at a 10 win team, which will be good enough for Gary Kubiak to keep his job sadly, but to be watching the playoffs from his own living room. And this is with going 5-1 in the division. Yeah, it looks grim to say the least.
Regardless, do you think 10 wins can take this division? Personally, I say hell no. Even with half of the Colts' roster on IR, I still think they win 10 games. It's just what Peyton does. I think the Titans may win 12. And knowing our history with the Jags, I bet we split with them again this season. But cheer up...at least the schedule will be easier next season.
Feel free to tell me how wrong I am in the comments below. And, please, convince me...
Please.
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I don't think so.
I don’t think the Ravens will win more than ten. They still have another Pittsburgh game, Atlanta on the road, New Orleans, and Miami (don’t count them out) on their schedule. Between those four and any potential upsets, I could see them losing three more games. Which means if we take care of business at home and grab the tie-breaker, the wild-card comes down to the AFC south.
The question for us though is, where does the extra win come from? Like you said, 4-2 in the division is probably a necessity. If they can’t pull that off, then they need to beat SD and Denver to complete that AFC west sweep. Lots of ways it could happen, but I’d probably write off anything more than 4/6 in the division, and wins over both Baltimore and NYJ. But crazier things have happened…
Let’s hope for parity in the AFC south, though, because Tennessee plays Indy on the road in week 17. If Indy has the division locked up and rests their starters, I’m going to track down Jim Caldwell and kick him in the nuts.
it's worked for Tenn before
getting to play the Colts on the final wknd and earning a free W to make the playoffs. Another one of VY’s “he just wins games” as I think that was his rookie campaign. Of course this year, the fact that we’ve already beaten the Colts once and are getting them at a good time for the rematch and they don’t seem to be world beaters, makes me not quite so angry at the schedule makers.
After seven weeks....
No team is unbeatable. Baltimore? They gave up 34 points to Buffalo. Jets? They can be spread out and passed on. Those are the two toughest games on the schedule after Indy….who we’re facing at the right time.
The Texans just need to take care of business. They’re capable of winning every game on the schedule behind the league’s most balanced offense. Limit the turnovers, just get a little improvement of the defense….and they’re set. People wanna harp on the mistakes though…that’s fine. The team responds better to criticism than praise.
"Lord, beer me strength."
I think...
the Chargers are gonna be a tough game. They were hit with injuries and dumb mistakes as well. So hopefully, Floyd and Gates still aren’t a hundred percent when we play them or its gonna be bad news. If we don’t generate a pass rush, Rivers will pick us apart. There D is tough, but I think they can be broken. Overall it should be a high scoring game.
The Titans are Babin's 5th team
Some of the teams were good, some bad. Some of the DCs were good. At best he was a journeyman/pine rider. It’s doubtful he was overlooked by so many coaches. So, either he finally “got it.” Or, he’s finally taking things seriously. Truthfully, I saw him without his shirt during his Houston days, and I was surprised at how flabby he looked, so maybe he just got himself in shape.
I honestly believe
the best way for the texans to see the post season is to win the south… Which means we need to split with ten and indy, sweep jax seems the easiest… But if we sweep the colts somehow, splitting with the other two wouldn’t be bad, because that leaves indy @ best having a 3-3 division record… Meaning indy sweeps ten. Tennesee is only the lead of the south because they have an extra game. Everything should even out.
I heard Brian Cushing like to do it with girls in a really uncomfortable place and i am not talking about the back seat of a Volkswagen
Go Texans!
I was just thinking this the other day
when going over the standings for my who to root for posts. The Chiefs will probably win the west at 9-7. The Steelers, Ravens, Jets, and Patriots will probably all win 11 games. Theres not going to be a wildcard in the AFC South. Our problem is all of the teams in our division are either good or okish, where the other divisions have the luxury of having 1 or 2 good teams and the rest are fairly bad. I still think the titans are overrated at this point, but I agree they will probably be our toughest divisional games.
Be judgmental about the actions of the past, be hopeful about the actions of the future. -The Homers Creed
Not that all these predictions aren't without merit, but this season is a crap-shoot..
for lack of a better term. The world champs got blown out by the Browns..the Ravens almost lost to a no-win Bills team..The Texans ran all over the Colts and overcame 17 point defecits twice. It’s not a normal year. We could go 8-2 as easily as we could go 2-8 the rest of the way.
One things for sure..we’ll be on the verge of cardiac arrest watching this team play every week.
by leacheatsbabies on Oct 27, 2010 8:24 PM CDT reply actions 6 recs
I agree with this post
A lot of weird things going on in the NFL this year. Who knows what’s next. We just gotta take care of business, then see what happens.
Exactly
It’s way too early to pencil anyone in for 10-11 wins. The thing we have going for us is if we can somehow find away to beat the Colts Monday night and complete the sweep (yep, that was weird to type) we will have huge advantage. I think winning the division should be the goal anyway. I’ll worry about wild card spots when the division is out of reach. The chance to go up 2-0 on the Colts in division is huge….I hope we can take advantage of it.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
Great post!
The term “any given Sunday” in the NFL, has played out more this season than any I can remember.
My prediction is:
The Texans will beat Indy for their first sweep ever of them in franchise history. Texans 38, Colts 35
They barely beat the Titans in first meeting Texans 24, Titans 21
The next meeting against Tenn, they come out flat, turn the ball over five times, and lose the other Titans game in a crushing ass raping that has us lighting this board up with talk of Apocalyptic coach firings (again). Rackers is the only player to score (three times) Texans 9, Titans 42
Texans lose first game against the Jags and we are all ready to write off the season, despite all the improvements. Texans 20, Jags 31
They come back and dominate the Jags in the second meeting: Texans 44, Jags 12
Indy and the Titans blow a few conference games along the way and the Texans squeak by with their first division win and playoff appearance seeded 3rd in AFC.
Outside the Division they:
Win: Texans 38, Chargers 35 (Rackers FTW at the end!)
Win: Texans 31, Jets 10 (holy crap, when did we get a defense?!!)
Lose: Texans 17, Eagles 34
Win: Texans 20, Ravens 17 (Ray Lewis jailed for an altercation in Montrose night before game)
Win: Texans 74, Broncos 12 (new NFL single game scoring record broken! McDaniels crucified by fans at Invesco Field immediately after the game, city of Denver riots last three weeks requiring National Guard and curfews)
Texans finish regular season 11-5
"May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I will not!" ~ General Patton (should be Frank Bush's motto)
bold predictions young padawan.
I heard Brian Cushing like to do it with girls in a really uncomfortable place and i am not talking about the back seat of a Volkswagen
Go Texans!
I LUV IT!
Sept the Jags part. I know we always drop trap games, but COME ON? We shan’t lose to L.A., Not this year!
"Do you ever feel more like you do now then when you got there?"
"Its always good to have the same number of takeoffs as you do landings."
-Wise words from a dude named Tim
Fantastic thought
Regarding your Chargers prediction, wouldn’t it be something if SD had a chance to tie it at the end and Kris Brown missed a FG? Thoughts like that make me smile.
Not to nit pick
but wouldn’t it be Jebow that gets crucified. I’m pretty sure that’s what it says in the bible.
Team Nickname...
Tachycardia Texans!
GO TEXANS!!!!
Our time will come...
by Texanmaniac on Oct 27, 2010 9:33 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
Tachycardia Texans New Season Ticket Offer.......
with each Platinum Season Ticket purchase we will offer a free Defibrillator!! This is for those those games when the blood pressure has risen and the veins pop out of your head!!
Our football, who art in Houston, Texans be thy name. Thy wins will come, this will be done at Reliant and on the road. Give us this year our winning season, and forgive us for our penalties, as we forgive those who false start against us. And lead us not into overtime but deliver us a Superbowl !! ~TheNightOwl
by SteelBlueUSMC on Oct 28, 2010 7:13 AM CDT up reply actions
/Pre-scheduling an angioplasty for season's end.
I am a visionary, I am a genius, and now I am angry! Now help me find my pants!
by UprootedTexan on Oct 28, 2010 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions
As the other highly intelligent internet people have said
Nothing is a guaranteed win this season. No one team is dominating all others, anyone could win nd who knows wht you will need to get a wild card or even a division spot.
A Texas Wannabe, born and raised in New Zealand. Currently located 7343miles South west of Houston.
by distant_texans_fan on Oct 28, 2010 12:32 AM CDT reply actions
Not to take away from the argument...
Which sounds reasonable, but I think the math is a little off:
“Even if that happens, you’re still looking at a 10 win team, which will be good enough for Gary Kubiak to keep his job sadly, but to be watching the playoffs from his own living room. And this is with going 5-1 in the division.”
We’ve only played one division game so far, so to go 5-1 means four additional wins. If we win both the Broncos and Chargers games (part of your premise), that’s two more. We’re already up to 10 wins. In order to split the four game stretch from the Jets to the Ravens requires at least one more win (the Tennessee game is of course one of the divisional games we’ve already addressed), so you’re looking at 11 wins.
We could go 4-2 in the division along with the rest of the premises and only win 10 games.
I'm only an accountant...
I can’t be counted on for simple Math…Come on, man!
by Mike Kerns on Oct 29, 2010 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Dont the AFC North and East play each other this year?
I think Miami and Cincinnati won’t be super terrible, and with Cleveland actually looking decent, that will hurt Pittsburgh and Baltimore some. Pats and Jets get 2 games EACH with the punching bag in Buffalo to fatten their records, but Miami is no slouch. What if ALL 4 of those teams finish at 9-7 or 10-6 (which I think is very possible for at least 2, or even 3 of them considering the AFC North has to play the NFC South….though the AFC East gets the NFC North so owch to that idea).
Tennessee, Indy and Houston could make things interesting if they all beat up on Jacksonville and the NFC West like I think they can. I can see very similar divisional records (4-2 Houston and Tennessee, 3-3 for Indy). Things could get interesting. Indy has to play Cincy and New England, Tennessee got Pittsburgh and plays Miami I believe. We got the Jets and the Ravens (eww). Its possible that this is the breakdown.
AFC
east- 2 teams in
north- 1 team in
south 2 teams in somebody in
west
B^2
Organic Chemist PhD Student by day...Houston sports fan by night!
Unless we beat the Jets, I could see them winning 13ish, unfortunately.
And I don’t see Pittsburgh losing many. But the wild-card is definitely more manageable than pundits are making it out to be. I think Miami could do us some favors. They’ve been close a couple times now. The Patriots are a wild card, though (I don’t mean that literally). They have a bad enough defense to drop a few, but they just keep squeaking by. Chargers should have had ’em this week. They still have the Steelers, Colts, Jets, Packers, and ’fins on the schedule, so we could be looking two 10-6 wild-cards.
by Nashmeister on Oct 28, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Do The Texans Have To Win The AFC South To Make The Playoffs?
Yes.
"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."
What happens when an unstoppable force meets three defensive players? THIS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpWqMqrZwTU
THIS
Could be said about many AFC Teams right now (their own division)
"I want you guys to pair up in groups of three and then line up in a circle." - Bill Peterson former Oilers Coach
by Barryfromtexas on Oct 29, 2010 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Just check out the odds
Bodog has the odds (as of 10/29) of winning the division:
Colts +105
Titans +160
Texans +325
That translates to about 25% chance for the texans.
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