Deep Steel Blueprint: Texans, Meet The Jets...
by TexansDC on Nov 17, 2010 12:00 PM CST
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PrintMeet the Jets,
Step right up and greet the Jets.
The 2010 season continues as your Houston Texans head to the northeast to face the New York Jets at New Meadowlands Stadium on Sunday.
I like to consider myself the optimist of the staff here, but it's been a trying week on the optimism. Between the gut-wrenching loss on Sunday and the impending visit to New Jersey, I have doubts about Houston's chances this weekend.
No, it's not because I think New York is an elite team because there are no elite teams this season. However, I think the Jets find a way to win close games whereas Houston is inventing new, unthinkable finishes to blow it at the end.
I mean, I could (and will) do a statistical breakdown of the Jets below, but I could just state the following and be fine. The Jets will jump out to a two-score lead in the first half while Houston fans clamor for more runs and/or passes. The Texans will come back like a desperate team to trail by a score or tie the game. The Texans will have a chance to take the lead in the 4th quarter when Matt Schaub will throw to Arian Foster. The ball will bounce off Foster's hands, off Rex Ryan's stomach, and into a waiting Bart Scott's hands. Scott will take off towards the end zone, but Andre Johnson will run him down and punch the ball out...only for Antonio Cromartie, flanked by six of his children, to pick the ball up and run it in for a game-sealing/winning touchdown. Yup, that's new enough, right?
However, let's find the holes in the New York Jets that way we know what to yell at Gary Kubiak, Rick Dennison, and Frank Bush for on Sunday. Maybe, just maybe, the coaching staff will design a gameplan to exploit the weaknesses in the Jets.
Statistically, the pass defense is worse than last season, but that, to a degree, is related to Darrelle Revis missing some early season games. However, teams can find some success through the air with Revis out there. The Jets are 14th in YPG (217.1 with 13 TDs allowed) and 16th in pass defense DVOA (+10.6%). Revis will blanket Andre Johnson which will leave the passing game in the hands of Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, and David Anderson. The Jets rank 27th against #2s and 25th against 3s and 4s. The Jets rate among the better defenders of the tight end, but this post at Gang Green Nation suggests that the fans consider slot receivers/tight ends/attacking the middle of the field and safeties are the weakness of this defense. As far as pass-rushing goes, the Jets sit 17th in sacks with 17, so Matt Schaub will find himself seeing normal amounts of pressure if his line can pick up the blitz.
Offensively, the Jets are balanced (297 rushes vs. 300 passes) but struggling. While their rush offense is 4th in YPG (150.7 with 4.6 YPC) and 5th in DVOA (+8.6%), LaDainian Tomlinson has slowed up over the past few weeks with three straight games below 60 YPG and 4 YPC. Yes, they also have Shonn Greene, but he's only produced one game over 57 rushing yards and one TD. When New York runs, Football Outsiders shows that 52% of the time it's behind the guards and center. Tomlinson, despite slowing down in the running game, co-leads the Jets with 30 receptions.
The New York passing offense is ranked 20th in YPG (211.3 with 13 TDs) and 20th in DVOA (+15.2%). Mark Sanchez will be the lowest-rated (80.5) and least-accurate (54.7%) quarterback that Houston has faced this season. Will facing the Houston secondary provide the relief New York fans are looking for or vice-versa? The primary New York targets are TE Dustin Keller (who leads the Jets with 30 receptions, 5 TDs, and 21 1st downs), WR Braylon Edwards (leads the Jets with 453 yards and 5 TDs), and WR Santonio Holmes (who leads the Jets in YPG with 61.3). The Jets are among the league's better pass-protectors, allowing only 14 sacks, but it would go a long way if Mario Williams and company could fluster the youngster into more inaccurate throws and bad decisions.
Special teams wise, the Jets rank 9th in DVOA (+2.8%). The only negatives come in field goals, where they are 18-of-24, and coverage where they give up 22 yards per kick return - one spot ahead of 11th-ranked Houston - and allow an eighth-worst 11.6 yards per punt return. The Jets have pinned opponents inside the 20 on 44% of their punts, are 2nd in the league in YPKR with 27.4, and 11th in punt returns with 10.3 YPPR.
I know a lot of this sounds bleak, so I'll leave you with some positives that can't be found in the statistics. Five of the nine New York games have been decided by eight points or less. Both New York losses have come at home, in New Meadowlands Stadium, where they average 12 fewer points than on the road. Speaking of the road, New York returns home after back-to-back road overtime wins over Detroit and Cleveland - an NFL first. The Jets will continue to work overtime as they'll immediately turn around and play Cincinnati on Thursday night after facing Houston.
In a nutshell, or for those who think "too long, summarize," the Texans should be very glad to be facing the Jets in New Jersey after two overtime games and right before a Thursday game. Houston needs to spread out the Jets and find "the other guys" specifically along the seam and in the middle of the field. Defensively, stack the box to choke out the run and put pressure on Sanchez (hell, they may as well blitz cause the secondary ain't stopping no one). On special teams, watch out for their kick returns and hope Jacoby Jones makes some noise as a punt returner.
Texans vs Jets coverage | Gang Green Nation
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So watching the Jags game
I notice D.A. that hilarious representative from munchkin land (Out of no disrespect of course) I was elated at the fact he was getting some playing time and even some throws… he belongs on this team if not for his comic relief. I am probably not going to be watching this game haven’t decided yet. but the Jets are going to be a rough one, and i have no doubt the Coaching staff will do the exact opposite of what we all want them to.
I heard Brian Cushing like to do it with girls in a really uncomfortable place and i am not talking about the back seat of a Volkswagen
Go Texans!
Given the way Dennison runs his offense...
There really should be more D.A.
"Lord, beer me strength."
We just need to make sure on 3rd down
TO play David Anderson, JJ can play on other dows. Please no more dropped easy catches on 3rd down!
"I want you guys to pair up in groups of three and then line up in a circle." - Bill Peterson former Oilers Coach
by Barryfromtexas on Nov 17, 2010 5:24 PM CST up reply actions
Hmmmm
The Texans will have a chance to take the lead in the 4th quarter when Matt Schaub will throw to Arian Foster. The ball will bounce off Foster’s hands, off Rex Ryan’s stomach, and into a waiting Bart Scott’s hands. Scott will take off towards the end zone, but Andre Johnson will run him down and punch the ball out…only for Antonio Cromartie, flanked by six of his children, to pick the ball up and run it in for a game-sealing/winning touchdown.
Sounds about right. Nicely done, TDC.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
not so fast
i think its about time for rackers to get in on some of this fail
game tied at 150 left, we get the ball, have a game winning FG from 55. the FG is just short, and someone from the jets, maybe cromartie will return the ball 105 yards from the missed FG for the TD.
If he does, he automatically wins Defensive MVP
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by The Night Owl on Nov 18, 2010 9:16 PM CST up reply actions
If he has a ball hit him in the hands...
and it doesn’t wind up in the opposing receiver’s hands for a game winning TD, he’s an upgrade.
"Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do..."
Something seems missing
I think it is that Mark Sanchez – the luckiest QB in the NFL – needs to somehow be a part of this. Otherwise, I thiink you will be really close as to what happens.
"I want you guys to pair up in groups of three and then line up in a circle." - Bill Peterson former Oilers Coach
by Barryfromtexas on Nov 17, 2010 1:09 PM CST up reply actions
At least without Jenkins
We’ll be spared the usual “Chris Myers sees nose tackle, falls down/is thrown 2 yards into running back” routine. It’s funny, with the defense so horrific, I don’t even bother to worry about our interior line issues anymore.
Frank Bush delenda est
Yeah, I was sweating "RagDoll... the sequel" until I saw that.
"Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do..."
TDC, you bring up a good point about the Jets run defense
That being said, I think that is where the Texans have to attack the Jets. I think the Arian Express needs to find the seams. If they load the box, Foster is in position to blow out some big gains, IMHO. Get past the first line of attack and he is scampering, as we all like to be awestruck at.
A Galloping Foster eating up big chunks of yardage will have the Jets defense winded and wondering.
I dub the Jets..... over-exposed
You have a point
Peyton Hillis did put up 82 yards (4.3 YPC) last week against the Jets. Against the Chargers (same 3-4 base, #1 defense at the time), Foster did put up 127 and 2 tds. I think it’ll be tougher against the Jets due to their bigger front 7, and I think this is a game where some bigger passes can make life easier for Foster, but it’s a fair point that Foster could find success.
"Lord, beer me strength."
I have a hard time not seeing us getting pounded this week
The physicality of the Jets is too much to deal with for this team, even if they play inspired football. HOWEVER, this is a chance for Kubiak to hold on to the small thread of dignity he has left and devise a game plan to flank the big bad Jets.
We all know our defense is going to obliterated regardless of what the Jets do so lets focus on what Kubes and the offense can do to keep us in the game.
1. The Jets are an uber-agressive team…we need to call SCREENS early and often.
2. Play up-tempo from start to finish..this is a rhythm offense so quit pretending it’s not.
3. Foster has earned the right to get 20 carries regardless of the opponent..give them to him.
4. Take deep shots on single coverage..whether it’s Walter or Jones or if Andre somehow gets by Revis, we NEED the big play in this game.
by leacheatsbabies on Nov 17, 2010 1:29 PM CST reply actions
Agreed. This will be a raping, pure and simple.
The ONLY hope we have of winning is for sanchez to have a career BAD day.
If Sanchez is even REMOTELY successful, we will be on the recieving end of a full-on curbstomping.
The good news is that it will basically seal our playoff fate and the speculation about the next Coach of the Houston Texans should start in earnest amongst the press.
A win on the other hand could really make things interesting….at least until we run into a mobile qb who can put up points…..oh, that’s the next two weeks. Perfect.
"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."
What happens when an unstoppable force meets three defensive players? THIS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpWqMqrZwTU
by TexansForever on Nov 17, 2010 2:06 PM CST up reply actions
How's it going to start speculation in the press?
No one’s expecting the Texans to win. A loss isn’t going to do much.
"Lord, beer me strength."
It will effectively end our season, unless you have smoked enough crack to think we will go 6-0 from that point, with 2x Titans, Philly, and Ravens on the schedule.
With no playoffs to hope for, the focus of the discussion around the team in the media will begin to shift to Kubes future.
Bank it.
"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."
What happens when an unstoppable force meets three defensive players? THIS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpWqMqrZwTU
by TexansForever on Nov 17, 2010 2:46 PM CST up reply actions
You haven't been keeping tabs on this have you?
The media’s already accepted the no playoff possibility, but no one is calling for Gary’s head unless he loses the team by season’s end.
PFT and ESPN have stories on coach’s on the hot seat….no Gary Kubiak.
Lance Z? He’s putting the odds on Kubiak being retained with the defensive staff being replaced.
McClain? He’s citing the CBA as reasons why Kubiak will likely be retained. He’s citing the enormous cost of paying all coaches and staff for 2 seasons why there won’t be massive overhaul barring a complete implosion.
One expected loss won’t change any of that. Continuing the streak to five or six? That will.
"Lord, beer me strength."
Guess we will ust have to wait and see what happens after Sunday.
"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."
What happens when an unstoppable force meets three defensive players? THIS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpWqMqrZwTU
by TexansForever on Nov 17, 2010 3:06 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed
Kubiak is fine. It would require a truly herculean effort (starting Slaton? Hiring Chris Brown?) on his part to get fired. Frank Bush can’t do it all by himself. Without the lockout, maybe, but with the lockout he’s safe for this year and next. I think we’re looking at January 2013.
Frank Bush delenda est
Unless Kubiak does something really cute/incredibly stupid.
Such as a quick toss to Andre Johnson who throws downfield to a triple-covered Jacoby Jones only to see the ball bounce off a defender, come within four inches of hitting the ground, and bounces off a pigeon.
The ball then miraculously winds up in the hands of (don’t ask me how) Kris Jenkins who uses his crutches (I’m assuming) to go toward the end zone. Chris Myers will wet himself at the sight of Jenkins and pass out in sheer terror. Every single player will miss their tackle and Jenkins, now without crutches, hops on one foot into the end zone for the touchdown.
If that happens, I think the four Texans fans at the Meadowlands will jump down on the field and beat the living dogsnot out of Kubiak, thus opening the head coaching position.
I am a visionary, I am a genius, and now I am angry! Now help me find my pants!
by UprootedTexan on Nov 17, 2010 3:39 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The problem with McClain and media pundits is that they aren't businessmen.
If people think the CBA-Lockout means that owners are just going to sit around and forget that they have franchises, they are crazy.
Coaches will still be fired.
New coaches will be propositioned and contracted for the 2012 season.
You don’t pass up Cowher or Dungy or Gruden or whoever just because noone is playing at the moment. you lock them up for when the game returns.
The idea that nothing is going to happen during the lockout is so absurd it is criminally stupid.
Bookmark this thread so you can come back and bask in my genius.
"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."
What happens when an unstoppable force meets three defensive players? THIS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpWqMqrZwTU
by TexansForever on Nov 17, 2010 3:52 PM CST up reply actions
Okay....you believe what you want to. I just see it a different way
Why would Bob McNair hire a guy like Jon Gruden or Bill Cowher for a monster annual salary (while having to pay the entire Smithiak brigade for 2 more seasons), only to have no players for him to coach? If the players and owners happen to come to an agreement by late July or August (in time for training camp), then the new head coach will have had no time to implement his new system in mini-camp; they’ll be starting from scratch. That’s not an ideal situation for a team at all. To the media, it indicated a long leash for Kubiak (it’s the fans who have called 2010 “playoffs or bust” not McNair or the media), with the hopes that he does enough so McNair can justify bringing him back; with the upside for McNair being that he has continuity in the program when the lockout ends.
Of course, McNair can and will fire the defensive staff because the current staff blows and a new coordinator/scheme would be better than what’s going on now. Plus, it’s quicker to implement a new defense rather than a new offense should the lockout cut down on time. However, they would still have the continuity of the offense and entire program as a whole. It’s not just an isolated Houston situation…it’s a leaguewide idea. It’s why free agency in 2010 was so…cautious. The uncertainity of 2011 has actions slowed and tempered.
"Lord, beer me strength."
We will just have to wait and see.
"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."
What happens when an unstoppable force meets three defensive players? THIS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpWqMqrZwTU
by TexansForever on Nov 17, 2010 4:17 PM CST up reply actions
At least...
the union and owners are now talking proposals. Maybe this whole thing is moot and Bob’s hands will be untied.
"Lord, beer me strength."
Prediction
38-10 or 38-9 Jets win.
Schaub will be sacked at least 3 times with 1 INT. I don’t think Kubiak will run it much, but then again he could out smart us all. The fact the Rex Ryan called his 5th ranked defense embarrassing is comical. Therefore I think he and his defense will make a statement against us.
Not much to say about our defense. It would be amazing if we have an average showing by keeping them close to 350 total yards. Then again, it won’t mean much if our offense can’t score.
We'll score more points than that
Not that it will matter. Mark Sanchez is going to have a career day (assuming he is not injured).
Frank Bush delenda est
Doubt it.
We scored what, 10 against the Giants and 13 against Dallas? 10 sounds about right to me. 6 if Orlovsky starts.
im thinking
either texans win big, like 31-17, or get steamrolled 38-9. no way is this game close
wonder how much we will be down at half
Maybe this will be like the bengals game last year
Everybody picks tr jets and we own them. Personally, I wanna see some screens to slaton.
by fgp on Nov 17, 2010 3:17 PM CST via mobile reply actions
If
Slaton is on the 45 man roster
"I want you guys to pair up in groups of three and then line up in a circle." - Bill Peterson former Oilers Coach
by Barryfromtexas on Nov 17, 2010 5:13 PM CST up reply actions
A moment of silence...
Mark Sanchez will throw four interceptions, however our defensive players will drop them all – why because our D does that AND Mark Sanchez is the luckiest QB in the NFL. So the Jets will still score the obligatory 30 points.
How much do the Texans score? Probably just under 30 and some inexplicable odd play that makes the prior two game ending plays seem routine by nature that leaves the stadium in a short moment of silence because of the sheer unbelievability of the play before the crowd explodes in a huge cheer.
I am hoping I am dead wrong, I just figure I won’t say anything optomistic and hope to be pleasantly surprised somehow.
"I want you guys to pair up in groups of three and then line up in a circle." - Bill Peterson former Oilers Coach
Jets fan here...
I will do a quick little breakdown of our offense and defense.
Defense: We have two very good cover CBs in Revis and Cromartie. If your game plan involves throwing at them a lot, then you will probably have some trouble moving the ball. Our nicklebacks (Coleman and Wilson) have been inconsistent on the year. They tend to struggle when they are matched up against good receivers. Burleson and Harvin both hurt us this year, and same with the Broncos and Ravens passing attacks, which consist of 3 or more solid WRs. Our safties are good against the run, but well below average against the pass. Leonhard is often matched up on TEs, which is a huge mismatch. Our linebackers are very good against the run, but aren’t great in coverage, probably because of how big they are. Our defensive line is solid against the run. Hillis had a good day against us, but that was mostly because he broke a bunch of tackles, which led to a few big runs. Our pass rush is not very good, and we tend to need to blitz in order to get to the QB. That leaves us susceptible to quick passes, and screens.
Offense: Sanchez is having a solid season. He is much more accurate than his completion percentage would suggest. The biggest reason its so low is that the Jets throw the ball deep A LOT, which means a lot more incompletions. The Jets running game has tailed off a bit recently. LT is slowing down a bit, but Greene is just starting to get it going. What we do on offense though, really depends on how the other teams play us. When teams stack the box, we throw the ball a lot. Cotchery is hurt and probably won’t play, but Edwards and Holmes are both threats to score on any play. We also have a very good TE in Keller. There are a lot of playmakers on this offense, but it can be very streaky at times. There will be times when this offense is moving the ball at will, and there will also be times where we can’t move the ball at all. Our offensive line has done a good job protecting Sanchez all year, and even when teams get to him, he does a good job escaping the pass rush. The most underrated player on the Jets offense is Brad Smith, who plays QB (in the wildcat), WR, and kick returner. He tends to make an impact on every game. The Jets also tend to shoot themselves in the foot at times, with penalties, turnovers, and missed FGs.
Anyway, it should be a good game.
by Dylan87 on Nov 17, 2010 5:28 PM CST reply actions 6 recs
^What they all said.
"My idea of an agreeable person is a person who agrees with me." -- Benjamin Disraeli
A few additional points to a good post
Defense: The Jets haven’t allowed any rusher to have a 100 yard game against us. The one thing you neglected to mention was our struggle with penalties. That has killed us and made a lot of games close that should have been in the bag. It also seems that a lot of teams have our blitzing packages down and we haven’t gotten anywhere near the number of sacks that we should have recorded based on the number of times we have blitzed. We also don’t have a lot of interceptions this season.
Offense: Sanchez’s stats are also misleading because he is throwing the ball away a lot more instead of throwing high risk passes like he did last year that led to interceptions. It sounds like the injury to Cotchery will limit our wildcat package which, despite the complaints of many Jets fans, has been good for solid yardage in the games we use it.
I think the Jets will try and ground and pound, especially if they get out to an early lead. It seems a lot of our success has been by limiting the time the opponents offense is on the field.
I’m looking forward to a good game with no injuries to either side!
by OldJetsFanatic on Nov 18, 2010 8:58 AM CST up reply actions
Here's where we find out that our offense isn't as good as we think it is.
A trend that will continue against Baltimore, Philly, and Tennessee, en route to having the league’s 17th-ranked scoring offense.
We’ll also give up way fewer passing yards than usual! Hooray! However, that will be mostly because Sanchez will only throw the ball twice in the second half, as the Jets amass 194 yards on the ground and have the game wrapped after their first drive in the third quarter.
You do realize...
we’ve faced the #2 (then #1) defense and looked pretty good, right? 391 yards, 6 red zone trips. Granted, the drives stalled in the red zone, but still.
Plus, Tennessee’s defense isn’t even in the top-half of the league.
"Lord, beer me strength."
Also
We’re ranked #2 in DVOA offensively.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
Kubiak is still the coach
Bush is still the ass clown that he is
We be fucked
by AllenOU on Nov 17, 2010 6:17 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Couldn't disagree more
The offense is better than we think.
"I want you guys to pair up in groups of three and then line up in a circle." - Bill Peterson former Oilers Coach
by Barryfromtexas on Nov 17, 2010 10:36 PM CST up reply actions
That depends, I suppose, on how good you think they are.
If you’d use the word “elite”, then I must disagree.
They’ve faced the 11th-ranked scoring defense twice, along with the 12th, 14th, 15th, 17th, 26th, 28th, and 29th; but they’re tenth in points scored. Still remaining on the schedule are four games against teams with top-ten scoring defenses. It’s going to take some serious padding against Denver and Jacksonville round two to off-set whatever happens against the Jets, Ravens, and Titans.
by Nashmeister on Nov 18, 2010 12:53 AM CST up reply actions
I'm pissed at our team
but I’ll still be watching them on Sunday. ): 45-21 Jets. Houston scores 2 tds in the final 5 minutes.
question from a Jets fan
With Revis and Andre going head to head all day on Sunday, who should I watch for Schaub to focus on? Or does he like to spread the ball around to multiple receivers?
Also, what has been the big issue with the secondary? Are the players executing poorly, poor scheme, lack of talent, poor coaching, or a mixture of things?
Thanks
He'll probably still look Andre's way...
but I’d say Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, and David Anderson will all see chances on Sunday.
Secondary? Whew. 10 yard cushions thanks to a zone defense…poor tackling….young cornerbacks…terrible safety help…so a combination of a lot of things.
"Lord, beer me strength."
here ya go, JG
Look for Andre to evenge previous meetings, toasting Revis for 150yds and a TD. And then watch out for the rest of the white boys, they all will smoke you over the middle. JJ will drop his passes. Arian will go out for screen passes, but will forget to help on a block first leading to Schaub getting Romo’d.
Secondary, they all are just old enough to buy acohol and they all would make great nickle backs. Our FS sucks and Pollard likes to tackle the football or is just looking for someone to hit and not paying attention to the ball. Our newest CB just got waived and noone wanted him, except for us and he is our best CB and he has not played a down. But, he was drafted ahead of Cromartie, so that makes him better. I almost forgot to mention that we have the worst DC in the last Decade, no lie.
Don't ask me! Ask Google, you dumb Yahoo!
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