Deep Steel Blueprint: Can The Texans Beat The Eagles?
by TexansDC on Dec 1, 2010 1:00 PM CST
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A news item before I delve into the DSB. Texans CB Glover Quin was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week for his career game on Sunday. If anyone needed that kind of day, it was Glover. Congratulations, GQ.
Another week, another tweaked version of the Blueprint. With the quick turnaround to Thursday night's game, it's hard to bust out the full bevy of stats in a manner that I see fitting. Honestly, I'm not sure I want to see a full statistical comparison between the Houston Texans and Philadelphia Eagles either.
Everyone here knows it will be a hard game. If anything, I'm glad it is on Thursday since short weeks are more about team health and attitude. Right now, the Texans look pretty good on both fronts. They're also coming off a very solid, technical effort against Tennessee. The defense was disciplined, tackled well, and didn't make many mistakes. It'll take a very similar effort to keep Michael Vick's Eagles from racking up 500-plus yards and near-50 points.
Based on what I can see from the available stats, and from recent national games, I'll lay out three big keys for Houston to shock the world on Thursday night. You just need to...jump.
1) Gary, there's nine days between Thursday's game and the Monday night game against Baltimore. Do not be afraid to let Arian Foster carry the workload.
What do Houston's two most dominant wins have in common? There was a heavy dose of Arian Foster.
In the season opener against Indianapolis, Foster had 34 touches. Last Sunday against Tennessee, Foster had 39 touches. Yes, there's also Derrick Ward, who has proven to be quite effective when Foster needs a breather, but Gary Kubiak needs to get the ball in Arian's hands early, often, and consistently.
The Eagles' run defense is statistically similar to pre-Week 12 Tennessee's, 11th in yards per game (102.5 YPG with 4.1 YPC). According to DVOA, they're actually 14th (-6.1%). Last week, Matt Forte ran for 117 yards on 14 carries, so they're not a brick wall - especially around the left side. Even if they were a top-five run defense, Foster has proven he can run against the NFL's top rushing defenses over the past month with good performances against San Diego and New York. The stats point to Foster putting up some yards on the ground.
More than that, Foster is a phenomenal receiver, as evidenced by his 48 catches and 453 receiving yards. Covering running backs is a major weakness of the Philadelphia defense, according to Football Outsiders, who ranks them dead last in the league (+39.8%). That's a good fact to know since the Eagles are 8th in sacks (30) and 1st in interceptions (19), so the longer routes may lead to more mistakes. Whether it is screens to slow down an aggressive front seven, designed plays, or finding the checkdown man, Matt Schaub needs to take what the defense is giving him - Arian Foster - and make the efficient plays. It wouldn't even hurt to see Steve Slaton get a pass or two. No? Well, that is wishful thinking on my part.
The Texans essentially have a mini-bye, so there's plenty of time to rest after the game. If the Texans are to stand any chance, they need a lot of Arian Foster on Thursday night to control the game.
2) Left, left, left, right, left.
Breaking down Philadelphia's offense, there's a marked difference in their 3rd-ranked running game (146.6 YPG; +27.1%) . Let me show you what I mean.
| Left End | Left Tackle | Between the Guards | Right Tackle | Right End |
| 5.13 (6th) | 4.41 (15th) | 4.27 (9th) | 2.79 (30th) | 3.26 (24th) |
To the left side, Philadelphia is a top-tier rushing team, but on the right side? They are terrible. The Eagles are aware of this because, based on percentages, Philly only runs to the right tackle/end one out-of-five times, which falls below the league average of one-out-of-four.
Why is this? Well, Michael Vick, who accounts for around one-third of their per-game rushing yards, is left-handed. Looking to the right, rolling to the right, running to the right is going against his strong arm. Pitches, tosses, sweeps, they'll predominantly be using his strong side. The Texans need to cheat left and invite Philadelphia to the right side - the weaker side of the line, according to fans.
Another fact of interest: The Eagles have allowed 32 sacks, despite a mobile quarterback, which is 5th-highest in the league. If the Texans can get pressure from the left side and force Vick right, they'll be looking good on defense.
3) Effort and hustle will go a long way on Thursday.
This isn't a statistic, but I have noticed this while watching Philadelphia's games against Chicago and Tennessee and contrasting it with their games against Indianapolis and Washington. A healthy portion of Philadelphia's yards come from Vick continuing a play. While he's more willing to find someone downfield, Vick stretches the play out like no other player in the league.
Watching the Chicago game, I never doubted their effort or hustle. From every snap to every whistle, the Bears got after it and stuck with it. Philadelphia still put up yards and points, primarily in the 4th quarter, but Chicago had their number for most of that game. They did a good job of limiting those big plays by simply hustling, unlike Washington, who seemed to give up when Vick scrambled.
On Sunday, Houston gave a very sound effort. The defensive line got after it, everyone wrapped up and played maintain gap discipline, and the Texans are going to need to have a similar effort on Thursday when it comes to "containing" Vick. On Thursday, the Texans have to get after Philadelphia for the entire game. No one ever said it would be easy.
That's what I have for this Thursday's game. I think it's more of a winnable game than some people are thinking, but, as always, sound off in the comments with what you're thinking.
Texans vs Eagles coverage|Bleeding Green Nation
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TDC
Pessimism leads to no heart break!
I heard Brian Cushing like to do it with girls in a really uncomfortable place and i am not talking about the back seat of a Volkswagen
Go Texans!
I know...
It’s hard to not be optimistic after writing these though.
I just have to remind myself that Kubiak will limit Foster’s involvement…which wouldn’t be too bad if Asante Samuel isn’t playing on Thursday, but Foster’s the equalizer here…..then again, it’s so obvious that Schaub’s the answer here! INCONCEIVABLE!
"Lord, beer me strength."
Five outcomes are possible from a QB dropping back to pass, and FOUR of them are negative
POSITIVE OUTCOME: Completed pass
NEGATIVE OUTCOMES:
1. Sacked
2. Fumble
3. Intercepted
4. Incomplete pass
Schaub is not having the same incredible year as he did in 2009. He’s not terrible by any means, but receivers are dropping passes more than usual and his targeting is off (behind, low, high) more than usual.
Let’s keep feeding #23 since cold facts are in favor, statistics are in favor, anyone with a single working optical nerve in their skull can see it is favorable.
"No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country." ~ George S. Patton
NFL Translation: His name is Cortland Innegan, because AJ beat the "F" out of him...and the Titans lost the war!
If #1 CB Asante Samuel is out
Philly becomes much more vulnerable in the air (as evidenced by Jay Cutlerfuck throwing 4 TDs on 14 passes).
Not advocating the pass by any means (because running/screens is the ideal way to go here), but that would be an opening.
"Lord, beer me strength."
Very true, and it sounds like that will be the case
Their weakness underneath with weak tackling by corners and aggressive LB’s spells a great recipe for crossing routes to Dre’ and check downs to Foster or dare I say a screen even.
Balance that with runs the way the our O’Line is doing and Foster’s vision + cut backs and we have a chance. Offensive success will be more about burning the clock and keeping Vick off the field than quick scores (deep ball TD’s). Sounds like we have a formula for that if Schaub can find his long lost rhythm.
My biggest concern on Defense is getting burned by over pursuing Vick. We’ll need to see more of that same smart teamwork to contain that they used on Chris Johnson. Burst the gaps, and maintain discipline for containment followed by 3+ gang tackles as they close the loop.
"No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country." ~ George S. Patton
NFL Translation: His name is Cortland Innegan, because AJ beat the "F" out of him...and the Titans lost the war!
by MeMongo on Dec 1, 2010 1:40 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I think one thing thats gonna be super important
Is Cushing and Sharpton/Diles on the outside contain. They will have to be quick on their feet and stay ahead of Vick on the way to the sideline, instead of taking a horrible angle and getting burned.
Be judgmental about the actions of the past, be hopeful about the actions of the future. -The Homers Creed
It'll once again be Sharpton, not Diles.
Kubiak announced that on Monday. I take it to mean: Diles has lost his starting job.
"Lord, beer me strength."
And I take that to mean
that someone in the front office started to wonder if I was going to completely lose my shit, strap 50 lbs of explosives to myself, and go visit Reliant on a Monday morning.
"MDC: Droppin' knowledge like a librarian with Parkinson's." --Jonathan Loesche
by MDC on Dec 1, 2010 1:45 PM CST up reply actions
They're just
“mixing things up”
Be judgmental about the actions of the past, be hopeful about the actions of the future. -The Homers Creed
McClain reported that Diles has lost the starting job.
It’s McClain so…..just saying.
"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."
What happens when an unstoppable force meets three defensive players? THIS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpWqMqrZwTU
by TexansForever on Dec 1, 2010 2:52 PM CST up reply actions
Pancakes is never wrong
Except sometimes
Hoping weird stuff really does only come in 3's
by Barryfromtexas on Dec 2, 2010 8:27 AM CST up reply actions
Agreed
Our LB’s are going to have to be special this week because the secondary needs to stay committed to keeping Jackson and Maclin out of the endzone. If all goes well we’ll get some pressure that flushes him out, so it’s critical that our Pollard and our LB’s bring him down as quick as possible….missed tackles this week will absolutely kill us against Vick.
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
This assuming some coaching competency on Frank Bush's part
but I’d guess they may emulate Chicago who played their safeties a bit deeper to off-set that speed of Jackson and Maclin.
"Lord, beer me strength."
yes, assuming Bush can manage to translate what he sees on film to the field
I think Cushing can easily have the same impact that Urlacher had if he stays disciplined and doesn’t over pursue. So if our secondary can……wait for it…….limit the deep plays (notice I didn’t say eliminate, cuz that would just be stupid) then it’s not unthinkable that we could keep this game close.
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
To answer the Question
Can We WIN? YES
Will we win? Probably not!
Don’t call me pessimistic call me a realist!
I heard Brian Cushing like to do it with girls in a really uncomfortable place and i am not talking about the back seat of a Volkswagen
Go Texans!
My heart pleads for victory while my mind computes disaster (thanks to such an inconsistent season)
Heart = Texans 24, Eagles 21
Mind = Texans 9, Eagles 42
"No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country." ~ George S. Patton
NFL Translation: His name is Cortland Innegan, because AJ beat the "F" out of him...and the Titans lost the war!
My first comment
Ever.
And Mario and Foster=keys.
As always
Blue devils.
by rizzleroy on Dec 1, 2010 2:13 PM CST reply actions 7 recs
welcome and rookie rec for you!
"If the Almighty were to rebuild the world and asked me for advice, I would have English Channels round every country. And the atmosphere would be such that anything which attempted to fly would be set on fire."
~ Winston Churchill
NFL Translation: We need the Texan Defense this week more than ever against the high flying Eagles...GO TEXANS!!
Newb rec and welcome
Do we allow Dukies here?
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
I can see...
the Texans winning this as a close one….
I can also see the Texans losing 95-6
GO TEXANS!!!!
Our time will come...
by Texanmaniac on Dec 1, 2010 2:25 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Pound the rock
If I were Kubiak I would commit to a run heavy game plan for this one. Like you said, we have a nice long stretch in between games to get everyone fresh again before the Mon nighter.
All of our O-linemen say they’d rather run block than pass block, we have one of the best lead blocking FB’s in the league, all of our TE’s and WR’s can block well, and we have 3 RB’s that have all rushed for 1000+ yards in this league.
So, assuming we don’t completely fall apart from the opening kickoff, and our defense is able to keep us within 14 points, I say run run run run run run run the ball. Then use the play action from that to take at least half a dozen shots down the field.
If we do that we may only lose by single digits. j/k
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
Just two things on the Eagles.
1. I think you read that chart on FO wrong but maybe I read what you wrote wrong, IDK so I’ll say it anyway.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl
These runs are from the perspective of the OFFENSE, so a run listed as LEFT TACKLE is actually at the RIGHT defensive end.
*I didn’t capitalize those words for the record
That means the left side of the defense is the weak part, the one that is starting a rookie LE and the 2nd year SLB. The right side of our defensive line is really strong. Trent Cole, Antonio Dixon and Brodrick Bunkley (now a back-up) are all very good run stoppers as you can see as the Eagles ranking #1 against runs up the middle and against runs to the left.
2. The reason the Eagles run so well on the left side is Jason Peters, not Michael Vick. As a matter of fact most of Vick’s damage running the ball has come to the right and up the middle. Jason Peters is a tank in the run game and Winston Justice and Nick Cole are not on the right side, Justice and Cole are terrible.
I’d say if you want to beat the Eagles attack the middle of the field and take advantage of our bad linebackers, use short stuff to take advantage of the Eagles’ tendency to let short stuff go and use the screen pass. Attack Dimitri Patterson with double moves too, Anthony Armstrong got behind him a few times.
by d-jackfan10 on Dec 1, 2010 2:50 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Yes, yes we can
Our D line obviously needs to be active as all get out, and our Cushing needs to continue playing like the Cush of old, and our offense has to come out slugging, but it can be done.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
The Texans will every game in the season
and the Defense will not allow more than 17 points a game!!!!!!!!!!!
/Hopes Texans don’t make me look like an ass
and the clouds opened up and God said "I Hate you Texans Fans."
Good luck with that.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
I saw on twitter
A team with a losing record after week 11 has made the playoffs the last 6 seasons
Why the fuck not us this year. I mean we would go Pitt it NE and get throttled, but it would still be fun, right. But then kubiak and friends would keep there job.
I say lose them all!!!!!
by AllenOU on Dec 1, 2010 3:36 PM CST via mobile reply actions
This season in the NFL
there are sooooooo many teams with chaotic records (not fully representative of their skill) and so few with dominant records that we normally see in seasons past, that I think the whole playoff picture is up for grabs.
GO TEXANS!
"If the Almighty were to rebuild the world and asked me for advice, I would have English Channels round every country. And the atmosphere would be such that anything which attempted to fly would be set on fire."
~ Winston Churchill
NFL Translation: We need the Texan Defense this week more than ever against the high flying Eagles...GO TEXANS!!
that aint no lie
It’s been a crazy ass season man. I think most teams have experienced extreme highs and extreme lows. Some have just managed to get the ball to bounce their way more than others.
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
hey
I won’t be home for the game tomorrow, anyone know of a website i might be able to catch the game on? I know it’s going to be on the NFL Network so i don’t know if they let those games be aired on the web or not, but any help would be much appreciated, GO TEXANS!
Usually you can get a feed from the game time open thread here
I forget the websites they usually suggest, but just check here right as the game starts and ask if someone hasn’t posted a feed.
If you’re IN Houston, it will be aired on CW (I think)
According to the NFL web site
The game will be streamed by them. Here’s a link to the schedule with a red box around the Philly game.
meh... being too lazy to actually photoshop something.
Just maybe, with a hope and a prayer that our defense will give us another shut out. (its the Christmas season… miracles happen right?)
Nope.
God is pissed off for being blamed for the Buffalo loss, so he’s sworn off interfering in football games until the playoffs.
Texans fan.
Okay but how do you explain the other 8 losses?
the Devil?
Anyway god was busy answering the prayers of many wide receivers by having Andre johnson beat innegan.
Running QBS
As far as I can tell, Texans have always gotten killed by running QBs. They get killed by Vince Young. They get killed by David Garrard. I am thinking tomorrow will not be pretty. Unless you consider Mike Vick sprinting 15 yards down field on 3rd and ten to be pretty. I will be there however, freezing my ass off in the upper deck, and trying to stifle my groans so I don’t wake up in the hospital on Friday.
I don't think Garrard ran at all
Maybe once. I wouldn’t say the Jags killed us – they just ripped our hearts out
Hoping weird stuff really does only come in 3's
by Barryfromtexas on Dec 2, 2010 8:34 AM CST up reply actions
OH MY GOD GUYS!!
Steve Slaton, the forgotten rookie wonder, will be returning kicks tomorow. Kubs said that he has had good practices and is ready to go. Maybe we were saving him as a secret weapon for our playoff push??
He did it against the BESFs
Only they just had one kickoff.
/awesomeness
I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.
www.battleredblog.com
by tehGrindCrusher on Dec 1, 2010 9:27 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
once again
thank all of you, here’s to another W for the texans!
I said this elsewhere
But I would like to see it – as a threat if nothing else. On obvious passing situations have 2 backs in the shotgun – Foster and Slaton. Since Philly cannot cover guys coming out of the backfield, this could really open things up.
I doubt we ever see this though
Hoping weird stuff really does only come in 3's
great idea
but you’re right, I doubt we’ll ever see it like we’ll never see a Leach get to run a FB dive.
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
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