FanPost

The Script plays defense for the other team


I started this with the goal of looking at the first 15 plays of each game to make an objective comparison of how we fared with and without Kubiak's scripted plays.

The three little ones running around kept me from getting past game one, but I did notice our 15th offensive play of the Ravens game ended the first quarter.  So I limited my research to points per quarter, using the first as a rough estimation of plays "inside the script."

 

Here are the average pointss per quarter for your 2010 Houston Texans:

1st:      2.77

2nd:    5.77

3rd:     6.77

4th:     8.77

 

Weird that they all end in .77...  I also averaged the quarters removing the highest and lowest totals, a la olympic judging style, to see if the statistical outliers affected one quarter more than any other.

 

Here are the results removing the highest and lowest point total from each quarter:

 

1st:     2.00

2nd:   5.55

3rd:    6.73

4th:    8.45

 

So the first quarter seems to be pushed higher (three times as much of a drop) by the outlier (Raiders) than any other quarter.   This tells me we are statistically closer to these numbers being accurate in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters than the first. 

After this indepth   quick analysis, it appears the "in-script" plays result in significantly fewer points than when we are finished with the script.

I think the argument I've heard Kubiak make before regarding this is that it gives the playcallers insight into how the defense is gonna play them, and it benefits the rest of the game, even if these plays fail.   At this point, I'd say we should not be giving up a quarter of our offensive attack, since the "in-script" plays are definitively resulting in fewer points.

The defense sucks, and something needs to be done on that side of the ball.  But that can't be fixed overnight.

I think we could run a two-minute offense from the jump for the last three games and see if we can put up 40-50 a few times and not give the defense a chance to lose it.

Discuss.

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