LaDainian Tomlinson And/Or Brian Westbrook: Just Say No, Houston
by Tim on Feb 25, 2010 2:30 PM CST
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PrintI was all set to draft a scathing post detailing all the reasons why your Houston Texans should pass on LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook. Really, I was. I'd started writing it and everything. But then, I stumbled across this article by Sean Pendergast (of 1560 fame) in the Houston Press, and I realized that Sean said it much better than I would have.
The point is simple: Betting on RBs over the age of 30 is a bad idea. You've read and heard that a million times. What you probably haven't read, however, is a thorough analysis of "running backs who have been either first- or second-team All-Pro in the salary-cap era (basically since the 1994 season) -- 31 in all" that examines their peak years and the staggering dropoff that inevitably occurs. Read the article and then tell me you're still interested in signing Tomlinson or Westbrook. Quite simply:
Both are 30 years old and available, which would be great if they were single women looking for a good time. However, they are NFL running backs, with injury histories and wear on their tires that should be scary if you know anything about the life cycle of an NFL running back.
This really shouldn't be a debate. Especially among Texans fans, with our wounds still fresh from the Ahman Green Era. Just say no, Smithiak.
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Yes, all RBs are automatically disqualified based on age over 30
That is an unwritten rule that doesn’t need to be put to the test again.
What about other positions? I hear talk continuing about Kevin Mawae. Isn’t he ancient, even for O-linemen?
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
one year contract
and no way possible he doesn’t upgrade our OC position during that year.
Dunta's weightspeed was too low
That's a tp-guarantee!
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
With the uncapped year making players have to have 6 years to be FAs
really drained the FA pool. The best OCs available is 39 year old Mawae and 36 year old Wiegmann. While we do need to upgrade OC, we’re looking at a stop gap at best.
by theaxeeffect4311 on Feb 25, 2010 4:33 PM CST up reply actions
My opinion's always been
Chris Brown had 79 carries. LT could do far better with those 79 carries than he did.
If Kubes is hell-bent on his veteran running back (Brown, Green, Dayne) then there’s no reason why LT wouldn’t be the best of the bunch. He can hold onto the football and throw a pass.
I’m not saying “MUST HAVE LT!!!!” I’m saying if “veteran running back” needs to be on the roster then LT seems to be the best bet.
by TexansDC on Feb 25, 2010 2:37 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Please, let's not even consider LT or any RB over 30.
They should have this expiration criteria stamped on their ass.
“Do not use after 30 years old!”
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
What about Thomas Jones?
I know he’s not a FA yet, but the guy keeps himself in great shape. He’s broken a 1000 yards 5 seasons in a row. Jones also averaged 5.8 yards per carry for the last two seasons. The guy looks like he’s getting better with age (a bit of an exaggeration). Yes, he’ll be 32 at the start of next season, but can we say that we should not take a look at this guy because of his age?
by theaxeeffect4311 on Feb 25, 2010 4:38 PM CST up reply actions
Remember another Jet RB?
Curtis Martin, led the NFL in yardage at the age of 31 with almost 1,700 yards in string of good seasons all over 1,000 yards, if I remember correctly. Then the next year, thump! That was it for Curtis Martin. He is probably the BEST example I can think of of a senior citizen RB doing good at the age of 30. He is the EXCEPTION!!! Maybe the only one. This sounds like a disclaimer from a drug ad on TV, but one should not expect similar results.
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
Thomas Jones
Was supposed to be over the hill and beginning his decline when he went to the Jets, only to have a couple of the best seasons he’s had in his career. People get hung up on numbers too much.
30+ year old running backs have been selected to the pro bowl 75 times, it’s not as if it’s not possible to get production out a 30 year old.
And sure it’s hard to be assured that a player over 30 at any position won’t decline, but it’s just as uncertain that a 22 year old rookie will ever improve even to the point of the aging star’s declined production. Honestly, i’d rather have a little of both. You want young players to develop for the future, but you always want veterans who understand what it takes to succeed in the NFL, at the very least it’ll help aid your young players’ progress.
30+ year old running backs have been selected to the pro bowl 75 times, it’s not as if it’s not possible to get production out a 30 year old.
VY.
www.manningface.com
To be fair to be VY
He’s not the first to be a running QB selected to the pro bowl. Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick should also have never had been selected for the pro bowl. Heck, McNabb had one of his best seasons last year and only made it as an alternate.
by theaxeeffect4311 on Feb 25, 2010 5:55 PM CST up reply actions
And some more numbers since they're so important
There have been 43 1,000+ yard rushers over the age of 30. John Riggins at 34 years of age rushed for almost 1400 yards and 24 TD. The next year in 14 games he ran for around 1,250 yards and 12 TDs at the ripe old age of 35.
37 times the old farts ran for 10+ TDs, Macrus Allen had 11 at the age of 37,
And 38 times these old timers averaged over 4.5 yards per carry with at least 100 attempts in a season, and 29 times they caught over 50 receptions.
by Bryan72076 on Feb 25, 2010 5:52 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
John Riggins
Actually increased his yards per carry average every year after he hit 32…
Franco Harris had a 1,000 yard season rushing his last full year in the league at 33 years old, after failing to do so for the 3 years prior.
Ottis Anderson carried the Giants on his back to win the Super bowl at like 33-34 years old.
Sure there comes a time when all players lose a step or two, and sometimes their bodies just fall apart, but if no one ever signed a 30+ year old running back or trusted them with the ball those teams would’ve missed out on some pretty solid and sometimes spectacular seasons from these old farts.
Toss out the three that didn't play in the modern era and you get a strict 40
Then the breakdown of those is as follows:
Age 30: 20
Age 31: 11 (including TJ last year)
Age 32: 6
Age 33: 1
Age 34: 2
Thinking there might be a pattern there…hmmm…
Now lets divide 30 by 777, aka, the number of seasons by Age 30 backs since the merger. Calcutta, we have a problem! Your statistical smorgasbord of counterarguments represent the totality of 3.86% of NFL running back seasons over Age 30. Those are the odds you want to take?
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Feb 27, 2010 3:02 AM CST up reply actions
or the facts
Rudimentary creatures of flesh and blood, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.
That's the only one you can think of?
There are others. Fred Taylor and Ricky Williams, for instance, are both still in the league. But my main point is the guy takes care of his body, is in great shape, and can do whatever we need to ask him to do. Do we really need an every down RB who can rush for 1000 yards? No. We need one guy who can give Slaton and Foster a breather and be the goal-line back. Jones can do that.
by theaxeeffect4311 on Feb 25, 2010 6:02 PM CST up reply actions
I meant to make my post here .
I still agree with you, Texans DC but I might have to petition the Battle Red Blog management to change my name to Battle Red N00b. I seem to fudge when it comes to replying correctly.
by BattleRedFan on Feb 25, 2010 5:10 PM CST up reply actions
Ahman Green is not LT
I think LT would be a better choice then Westbrook who may just retire. The Texans all ready split time and LT would be that, sign him for a two year deal (assuming there is football in 2011).
I think its impossible to to try and predict LT’s & Brian Westbrooks potential impact on the Texans with the previous 30yr old RBs we had. I understand your argument concerning 30 yr old running backs, but LT & Brian Westbrook had very different careers from that of Ahman Green or Chris Brown? LT & BW were considered to be in the elite class of NFL running backs, while Ahman Green and Chris Brown both led with mediocre seasons.
IMO
why not bring in LT?? different sport, but go back in time with me to the valentine’s day trade that bought clyde drexler back 2 houston as a rocket. everyone was saying that he was 2 old, blah blah blah. we wound up winning a championship that year, and the chemistry on that team was off the charts. LT is a damn good fit for us. his character, his talents both line up exactly with what we wanna do with our offense. his being a free agent at this point in his career is a sign! i’m all 4 bringing LT back to texas.
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by chrisd21 on Feb 26, 2010 8:04 AM CST via mobile reply actions
I think it might be a gamble, but if you can get him cheap, LT could work in Houston just as a TD hawk
Let Slaton & Foster carry most of the load, & bring in LT to punch it in
I would challenge you to a battle of wits, but you appear to be unarmed.
by The Night Owl on Feb 26, 2010 12:24 PM CST up reply actions
Drexler was still a star though. In a league where stars dominate the outcome of games.
LT’s production (and yes TDC I’m aware he was behind a not terrific line) slipped in 08 and was horrendous last year.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Feb 27, 2010 3:04 AM CST up reply actions
As a classy human being, LT is a perefect fit for the Texans
Chrisd21 said
LT is a damn good fit for us. his character, his talents both line up exactly with what we wanna do with our offense. his being a free agent at this point in his career is a sign! i’m all 4 bringing LT back to texas.
I totally agree. His personality is a PERFECT fit for the Texans.
I liked this article from USA today
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/chargers/2010-02-24-ladainian-tomlinson_N.htm
where the Associated Press author said
Tomlinson was the NFL’s MVP in 2006, when he set league single-season records with 31 touchdowns, including 28 rushing, and 186 points. He ran for a career-high 1,815 yards that year, giving him the first of two straight league rushing titles.
Coincidentally, that was Marty Schottenheimer’s last season as coach before he was fired due to a personality clash with general manager A.J. Smith. Schottenheimer, who loved to run the ball, made way for Norv Turner and a passing game in which quarterback Philip Rivers has blossomed.
and then in this article at the North County Times Scott Bair reported this quotation from LT
http://www.nctimes.com/news/local/sdcounty/article_c2dc5728-baf0-5cb4-8d13-17f451a53c64.html
“We all have egos and want to be the main man, but I’ve always had another guy with me to help out,” Tomlinson said. “It’s no different at this point in my career. Maybe I don’t carry the ball as much as I have, but I’m OK with that as long as there’s an opportunity to win a championship.”
LT knows the score. I bet he’ll be at training camp and I also bet he’d be happy to help train the other running backs.
PLUS think of the bonuses for LT of leaving California.
no state income tax
lower cost of living in Houston vs San Diego.
state isn’t bankrupt . .
basically, he can take a significant pay cut and still feel wealthy here PLUS get his super bowl ring =D
downside: the weather here sucks compared to what he might have in San Diego
but meh that’s what Air conditioning is for ;-).
he wants a Superbowl ring =) I’d love for him to get it with us here in Houston.
by BattleRedFan on Feb 27, 2010 6:02 PM CST up reply actions
sorry I messed up my quotation
Coincidentally, that was Marty Schottenheimer’s last season as coach before he was fired due to a personality clash with general manager A.J. Smith. Schottenheimer, who loved to run the ball, made way for Norv Turner and a passing game in which quarterback Philip Rivers has blossomed.
that was also from the AP article on USA Today
by BattleRedFan on Feb 27, 2010 6:04 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think anyone here
Thinks its a good idea. But I guarantee someone else will.
How else is RS supposed to answer that question though?
There’s not a classy way to go into a press conference and say “You guys are retards, LT is old and washed up and we don’t want any part of him.”
People who get worked up over his phrasing of that need to re-evaluate the context. We evaluated Larry Johnson at midseason too.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Feb 27, 2010 3:09 AM CST up reply actions
I saw that article
then I went back to your article, and was a little confused.
I hope you’re right. Surely Smithiak have learned from the Green debacle.
Dunta's weightspeed was too low
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