Fuzzy Math: Why the Texans Should Select an O-lineman In the 1st Round

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I am here telling you that I have thought it all through and unless something crazy happens on draft day, which is always possible, the Texans should select an O-lineman in the first round of the NFL Draft in 2010. You immediately take umbrage and think, "Rip, you have no idea!" Well, I am no lunatic, but it is with my own brand of logical reasoning that I have come to this conclusion.

There are reasons to think otherwise. You say, "There was nothing wrong with the O-line! The number of QB sacks allowed were down for the Texans in 2009 and Matt Schaub led the NFL in passing yardage...what's your beef?" Well, it is quite simple. The secret to Matt Schaub doing what he did, was Matt Schaub developing his supreme field vision and his ability to determine who's open and the coaches designing plays to get him receivers in the right place at the right time. The passing game between the QB and the receivers was working like a well oiled machine. The performance of the O-line was not.

So much credit has to go to Matt Schaub for playing through the hits and performing the way he did in 2009. Another heap of credit has to go to the coaches and receivers for putting together and carrying out an effective passing game plan. I put the onus of keeping Matt Schaub on his feet solely on the shoulders of the O-line. I give all the credit of Matt Schaub getting back up on his feet for the next play to Matt Schaub. But one has to ask, "How many hits can Matt Schaub take before he doesn't get back up?"

And, you say, "But, Rip, Matt Schaub played all 16 games this year. The O-line had to be working pretty good for that to happen!" I want you to know that Matt Schaub was Iron Man out there this year. Do not underestimate Matt Schaub's ability to take a hit and get back up. In 2009, according to Football Outsiders, the Texans' O-line was the 2nd worst in the league in keeping Matt Schaub from getting hit. Remember the separated shoulder? Matt Schaub IS Iron Man, I tell you!

Now you may be saying, "Okay Rip, we can't argue about Matt Schaub. He's fresh off his Pro-Bowl MVP performance and he is pretty good at what he does in spite of the O-line. But, if the O-line is the 2nd worst in the league, the D-line has to be equally as bad. And, besides...if Matt Schaub can withstand the pounding he received last season, he should be able to do that again. So, we want a NT in the 1st round!" I say, "Rubbish! Stop that kind of thinking!"

We had three DTs that did an okay job last year. Not great, but they were okay. Many of you have pointed to Amobi Okoye's improved play. Well, Pro Football Focus thinks he was only the 3rd best DT on the Texans last year. The D-line was so good that even after the bad start where the D-line was virtually last in the league, according to Football Outsiders, the Texans' D-line rose up to an overall ranking of 5th by the end of the season! Tell me, why is there an outcry that we have to draft a NT in the 1st round? Give me something to support that besides saying we need a guy like Kris Jenkins who can swat opposing Cs like ragdolls, just because we saw him do that in the first game of the season against the Texans! That is just not convincing me that NT is the Texans' top need. Besides, the closest thing to a player that might have the impact of a Kris Jenkins will be gone in the first three picks of the draft.

Head Coach Gary Kubiak's offense lives off the play-action pass. If the defense doesn't respect the run, the play-action pass is not so convincing. What is wrong with the running game? No holes to run through, maybe? Football Outsiders breaks down stats in an interesting way that allows us to key on the O-line, instead of the entire offense. They have some stats called Power Success which is the percentage of runs on third or fourth downs , two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or a touchdown. For the stat Power Success, the Texans ranked 21 in the NFL. There is also a stat called Stuffed which is the percentage of runs where the RB is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. For the stat Stuffed, the Texans ranked 26 in the NFL. As we all know, the fact that the Texans weren't good in short yardage run situations didn't stop Coach Kubiak from defying the odds and going for it.

Additionally, and this point does go beyond statistics, but it weighs in to my conclusion. Every year before the NFL Draft, Coach Gary Kubiak enlists the media to disperse his smokescreen. This year it was reported on this blog that the coaches are in love with Kasey Studdard. I am a non-believer and I see this as Kubes' ploy to get out the story that the Texans won't be drafting O-line. And the USA Today and Chronicle reporters are too pleased to aid in this devious act of misinformation. The Texans are going with the status quo at O-line? Not likely.

Okay, so if the Texans are to draft an O-lineman in the 1st round, there has to be a player at that position at the 19th/20th pick, because that is where they are picking, right? Can we agree that you want to have the highest degree of confidence that your 1st round pick is going to not be a bust? I am telling you that at this point in the process, yes, before the NFL Scouting Combine, before the Pro Day workouts, that there are probably 7 O-lineman that fit that category. There is one NT, Suh, and he won't be there at 19/20. The other NTs in the draft all have big question marks. The Texans may have their choice of 3 or 4 of the O-lineman, whose names I will put out there...Bruce Campbell, Maryland (OT), Anthony Davis, Rutgers (OT), Bryan Bulaga, Iowa (OT), Mike Iupati, Idaho (OG), Charles Brown, USC (OT), Trent Williams, Oklahoma (OT), Vladimir Ducasse, UMass (OG).

Oh, another reason why I like the pick for an O-lineman. Last year, the Texans got a new DC and went out and selected an OLB, who was hand-selected by the new DC. This year, they have a new OC and I am thinking; what's a better way to roll out the welcome mat, than to let Rick Dennison solidify the weakest part of his unit, the O-line?

So, do the math! It all adds up to the same thing. The Texans need to draft an O-lineman in the 1st round...