There seems to be much consternation about the Texans' lack of free agency activity this year. Compared to the Bears or Falcons, we've been downright boring. Just look at the (ridiculous) contracts handed out to guys like Julius Peppers, Chester Taylor, and some guy named Dunta Robinson.
I think this is why Moneyball is the least understood book in sports history. The book was never about walks or OBP or finding players with bad scouting reports who put up good numbers. It was always about finding market inefficiencies and exploiting them. It's a business book, not a sports book.
No matter what, we are still working under a set of financial restraints, cap or not. Uncle Bob may be rich, but he’s not crazy.
Over the next couple of years, we have a boatload of players we need to re-sign, including DeMeco Ryans, Owen Daniels, and Mario Williams. So, we have a choice: sign FAs when they’re at their earning, but not necessarily playing, peaks. OR, we can continue to build via the draft and the occasional smart trade. Spending huge amounts on FA (see the Bears), you are potentially hamstringing yourself down the line. Does anybody really think the Bears will be that much better after their drunken sailor spending spree this off-season? There is a huge risk tied up in the Peppers and Taylor contracts, and I guess I'm just not seeing the reward justifying the risk. In addition, there seems (I have no proof) to be higher guaranteed dollars this year. For example, there's no way Antrel Rolle is in the conversation for best free safeties, but he's now the top paid at his position with a whopping $15MM of that guaranteed.
You sign the big FAs when they’re the last guy or two to put you over the top. I think Antonio Smith was that kind of guy last year. But aside from Leigh Bodden, and only kinda, the only guy I really want is Rob Sims. Why Sims? Because he's young and he has his peak years ahead, not behind, of him. Otherwise, you can have your overpriced Peppers and Taylors and Rolles and the rest.
Yes, it’s kind of boring, but it’s also financially prudent. You simply just can’t go spending max dollars and receive minimum efficiencies.
The only other case I see where the Texans' FO might have tripped up is when Antonio Cromartie was traded for pennies to the Jets. So now, I ask you: where do you see where the Texans messed/are messing up in free agency? And why?