Offensive Expectations: How Did We Do in 2009?
by bigfatdrunk on May 19, 2010 2:54 PM CDT
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A couple weeks ago, I reviewed our defense and how we performed against our opponents on a game-by-game basis. After the jump, I'll look at the offense. OK, ready......JUMP!
I think it's safe to say our run game struggled just a bit. Not like I'm giving the punch-line away or anything here, but once we look at the chart, it becomes frighteningly obvious. Special note about the charts: Our opponents' totals have been "normalized" so that our game is subtracted from their averages. By doing this, I think we can get a more clear view of how our offense performed against our opponents versus their other 15 games. As an example, the Jets gave up 98.6 rushing yards per game. However, once our paltry 38 yards is removed, they gave up an adjusted 102.6 rushing yards per game. Make sense? Let's go to the charts.
For only three out of 16 games, we out-rushed our opponents' averages. All three of these games were wins: Buffalo (Ryan Moats), Miami, and New England (both Arian Foster). Our rushing performance against the New York Jets, Arizona, and especially St. Louis stick out. The first two of those were losses, and we nearly lost to the Rams. Does our run game have an impact on Ws and Ls? The Magic 8 Ball says: "All signs point to yes."
(Of course, the question of whether or not we have improved the run game during the off-season remains.)
Our passing offense is a mirror image. We only underperformed expectations twice, against the Jets and our second match-up against Jacksonville (which, of course, included the Sex Cannon Experience). Let's take a look.
That's outstanding. Mush it all together, and we get...
Aside from the Oakland game, when it's fair to say we became a bit conservative, you can easily see three of our losses above.
My conclusions: Well, we need to fix the run game. I fully believe you use the pass to set up the run, not vice versa. This makes our run game even more problematic when you consider the strength of our passing game. Overall, there just aren't any surprises here. We moved the ball well through the air, not so much on the ground.
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I forsee the running game
becoming the focus of this offense. With Dennison calling the shots, a couple new Olineman and coaches, and a stable of hungry and very capable RBs, we’re going to rejuvenate a running attack. Last year, we were so effective in play action and bootleg without the slightest threat of a run. I look for the running game to open up the passing game immensely.
by leacheatsbabies on May 19, 2010 3:05 PM CDT reply actions
These stats do not take into account
that the Texans have a new running back by committee lineup, a new OC, a 2nd year DC, not enough TEs and they lost John Busing and Brian Russell from last years roster.
Poppycock!
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
I left out the CB whose name shall not be mentioned....
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
I feel like that
I just want to see dbl digit wins!
"Your mother is a hamster and your father smells of elderberries! Now Go away or I shall taunt you a second time!"
Go Texans!
Unfortunately..
Yardage does not take into account “shitting the bed at crucial moments”; which our offense was prone to do on a routine basis. Let’s hope that Ben Tate + new jumble of slightly less bad offensive linemen helps in that department.
Nash...you barely touched on it
What a list we could make….
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
We could even make charts and graphs to go with it...
plotting crushed hopes and dreams on one axis, and rapid alcohol consumption on the other.
I don't think the running game has to be great
It just has to be good enough…Kinda like the girl your willing to take home at last call that you ignored the rest of the night. Our passing game is good enough that just having a decent running game is all that’s necessary. I would love for us to be #1 in the league in rushing, but that’s probably in the cards any time soon. I think the old adage of winning teams run the ball well isn’t exactly accurate, but we definitely need to improve in that area to be a more balanced, unpredictable team.
We’re a passing team…that’s just the way it is and that’s OK.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
I mostly agree
However, there seems to be a pretty clear correlation between our worst rushing games and our losses. We don’t need to be a fantastic running team, but we do need to improve.
That said, I don’t know if it’s going to happen this year.
*Bangs head repeatedly on desk*
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
ew
Studdard AND Meyers penciled in?…
also begins banging head on desk
by leacheatsbabies on May 19, 2010 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
it’s also a chicken or the egg thing to some degree. Games in which you are loosing(see what I did there?) you are less likely to run the ball exaggerating any deficiencies in the running game. I don’t think that necessarily applied to us last year though…we were just pretty poor at running that ball.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
Why the hell
do you pay Smith starting money if you’ve got starters penciled in?
Why do you say “open competition” if there’s starters set?
"Lord, beer me strength."
Are you really getting upset about a depth chart in May?
They have to have someone working with the first team for OTA’s. Since the Smith boys are both new and learning our system and Briesel is coming back from an injury it’s only natural that those guys would be listed as starters right now. I wouldn’t read anything into it at this point.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
I'm only (slightly) upset
because Studdard’s starting and the time could be better put to use…
"Lord, beer me strength."
Smith is your only other option
I don’t think it makes sense to have him run with the first team until he’s got our system down. There’s nothing wrong with making the new guy earn it. It might be Kubiak’s way of motivating these guys as well.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
Kubes will play the best 3 guys at G,C,G
right now he might think Studdard has earned a stronger look but rest assured, the best 3 will play. My guess is Brown/Caldwell/Smith/Brisiel/Winston…or switch Brisiel for Studdard/Chris White
by leacheatsbabies on May 19, 2010 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions
A strange defense (in that I'm the one making it)
To be fair, Duane Brown was worse than Studdard in his rookie year. As much as I think Studdard was awful last year, he’s still young enough that improvement is possible.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 19, 2010 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Does that logic
At least mean we can write off Myers to the bowels of the suck?
As long as you aren't a PFF game charter
Yes.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 20, 2010 4:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Seriously
There’s still plenty of time for one of us to put itching powder and lsd in Studdard and Meyer’s jockstraps.
I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.
by tehGrindCrusher on May 20, 2010 3:39 AM CDT up reply actions
agreed
The run doesn’t have to produce for this team on par with how the 1972 Dolphins produced.
But this offense has to be able to stick with the run, in order for the entire team to be completely effective. We couldn’t stick with the run last year, for various reasons. Bad mojo.
1972 Dolphins?
Isn’t that the year the dolphins had a 3,000 yd backfield? Csonka, Kiick, and Morris? Also had a couple of 1000 yd or 100 catch recievers? in only 14 games. I wish we were close to that this year, but we can get to that point with our continued improvement. Remember though that the Dolphins had a soft division “NE/BUF/NYJ/IBALC” all sub par teams and that was 8 wins then there was HOU, NYG, MIN, KC, SAND, STLC" 6 more weaker or cardiac opponents (14-0) and CLE,PITT,WASH (3-0) in the playoffs… with the only real stud being PITT….. Can we replicate that in this division… not likely… but we should make a good run to the playoffs and barring injury… maybe to the bowl. CAN’T WAIT FOR THE PRESEASON TO BEGIN!!! WOOOOOOOHOOO!!!!
Yards Per Carry, Rushing TDs and 4th Quarter Rushing Yards
These are the most vitally important stats that will correlate to more Ws this year.
Lets hope Slaton, Tate and Foster can become a 3-headed monster in the backfield.
by leacheatsbabies on May 19, 2010 4:08 PM CDT reply actions
throw in fumbles lost too
unfortunately, we all know how important that one is..
by leacheatsbabies on May 19, 2010 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Dont forget times Kris/Chris Brown was on the field
You can't fix Dumb or being a VYFB
by Texans-Brocos on May 19, 2010 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions
well Chris Brown is on the street and Kris probably will be shortly
maybe Kris won’t..but I like Rackers to win it…solely because he was on my fantasy team 2 years ago and went off.
by leacheatsbabies on May 19, 2010 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions
4th quarter rushing yards
correlate to wins because that’s what you do in the fourth quarter – you run the ball to play the clock.
I hit post too quickly
You run the ball to play the clock if you’re in the lead.*
unless you're Indy, or (post Randy Moss) New England
in those cases, you continue to pass, and lose the lead in the 2nd Half of Super Bowls
Not sure I agree
I think this is an old adage that may not be true, at least in today’s game where points are easier to come by. This would be something interesting to look at statistically to see if there’s a correlation between 4th qtr rushing and wins, but we’d need to take a multitude of variables into account. For example, there’s a huge difference between rushing in the 4th up 35 and being up 3.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
Rushing attempts is strongly correlated with winning. Here’s an analysis from www.advancednflstats.com. I suggest reading all 4 parts, it’s good. http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/07/what-makes-teams-win-part-1.html
“When we see two things that appear correlated, it is natural for us to say that one causes the other. The runs come during the game, and the win comes at its conclusion. Therefore most fans and analysts assume the running causes the winning. The problem is, it usually doesn’t. It’s the winning that causes the running. Teams that are ahead, and likely to win, run the ball to take time off the clock and to minimize the risk of a turnover. Teams that are behind, and likely to lose, abandon the run in favor of the pass. Statistics can measure the correlation, but it can’t determine the direction of causation.”
This article is a really good read...
Was 2009’s running failures on the offensive line or running backs?
"Lord, beer me strength."
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