Five Questions: Defense
Wouldn't you know, I had most of this set typed up and then suddenly Brian Cushing put it on himself to make me knock one of the questions off. Such a narcissist!
As constructed, this defense probably deserves more than five questions, but here at Five Questions we stick by our guns like Gary Kubiak sticks with Kris Brown. Which is to say, until it nearly costs me a job, I'm not doing anything about it. So here, readers, are my five most pressing questions for the Texans defense in 2010:
1) Can Kareem Jackson (or any of the cornerbacks) replace Dunta Robinson?
Me typing that probably has you in hysterics, Let me allow you a minute to drink a glass of water. Now you've got the hiccups. That's what you get for jumping to conclusions.
No, no, I wasn't referring to last year's Dunta Robinson, who would have been more effective on the sideline shouting "DROP IT!" at nearby receivers than he was on the field. I'm talking about vintage 2004 "6 picks and 3 forced fumbles" Dunta Robinson. This secondary has its share of solid players, but as Steph pointed out in her latest blog piece with KC Joyner, the Texans have gone a long time without having any actual playmakers in the secondary. I'm sure I've mentioned this before, but my personal philosophy is that as the passing game has had the rules tilted more and more in its favor, the value of the turnover has gone up.
Enter "Ice" Kareem Jackson, owner of 300 pairs of shoes and, hopefully, opposing wideouts' souls. Jackson may have been the most NFL-ready cornerback in this draft, and I'm not out to criticize the Texans front office on draft picks as I don't write for Stampede Blue, but despite essentially starting from day one as a freshman, Jackson managed just 5 interceptions in three years. This could be something that Kyle Wilson believers will bring up quickly if Jackson struggles out of the gate.
Perhaps Jackson pans out as a true projection pick and starts picking off balls left and right, or perhaps Glover Quin enjoys a leap in his second season and becomes a ballhawk. It's not out of the realm of possibility. But the way things are constructed, and with a cold shoulder to free agent safety Darren Sharper as team policy dictates elderly discrimination, it's not looking like the Texans have a chance to break the low turnover cycle. And that's a shame, because when you play as many close games as the Texans have over the past couple of years, even five extra turnovers would make (and would have made) an enormous difference.
2) How will this team replace Brian Cushing for the first four games of the season?
With a combination of Zac Diles on one side and Danny Clark or Darryl Sharpton on the other, assuming that Kevin Bentley is a special teamer and Xavier Adibi is busy cleaning up the feces of Gary Kubiak's dogs off his lawn. There. Simple question, simple answer.
Oh, you wanted actual analysis. Okay then.
It's never easy to lose a terrific defensive player In fact, there is no upside to it. But there is some good news in the form of timing. There isn't actually a weak link in this brutal schedule the Texans were dealt, but Cushing is missing just one division game and the Texans do get two of the few teams that were under .500 last year on their schedule early on in Washington and Oakland. Of these four teams, Indianapolis, Washington, and Oakland were all varying degrees of awful according to FO's run offense DVOA last year. 20th, 28th, and 26th in the league respectively. In fact, since the Texans ran a shell defense against the Colts in both of last year's meetings, and Diles is actually respectable in coverage, there might not be much of a dropoff at all against Indy's pass game. These three teams also did little to improve their running games in the offseason, and will instead be relying on players like Donald Brown and Darren McFadden to live up to their draft hype or players like Trent Williams to come in and play well as rookies.
Unfortunately, they also scheduled the Dallas game early. That could be a problem. Unless my wishful thinking that the Cowboys' offensive line collapses on itself due to old age comes to fruition, and we all pray it will.
3) Is regression a possibility for the run defense?
Shaun Cody, career role player, came on and delivered an obscene 100% stuff rating in 18 "plays" after joining the starting lineup in Week 4. Of course he has no past record of doing anywhere near that well, it's a small sample size, and his play to people who actually watched the games (i.e., myself and Pro Football Focus) was graded as mediocre. Instead of solidifying nose tackle, the Texans continue to draft smaller and get lighter and quicker up front.
Bernard Pollard came on and had a solid year by any statistical standard, but this was also the first year he ever performed at that level. He's always had promise, but was last year a case of him finally getting it, or was he also playing over his head? I'd tend to believe he got it, but it's not exactly an open-and-shut case, which is probably why the Texans didn't sign him to a long term deal this offseason, instead opting to give him a restricted free agent tender.
These were the two keys to our running defense turning around last year, and just as they came out of nowhere, they very well could return to nowhere this season. Instead of building to solidify their gains, the Texans have continued to focus on speed and quickness. Keep in mind that as well as the Texans run defense played in some of their games last season, BFD has pointed out reasons for doubt against teams with real quarterbacks. Also note that they couldn't stop Jacksonville or Tennessee even with those changes, and the convenient cherry picking dismissal of pre-week 4 stats contains, you guessed it, one game each against Jacksonville and Tennessee.
Of course, the Texans could very well be just as good at run defense as they were last season after Week 4, in which case BFD, Matt, myself, and all other Galactus NT believers will probably sit down in rural Arkansas for the biggest crow helping we've ever had. It's a cultural delicacy there, I hear. But I have my doubts. If a solid run defense is required infrastructure for a good defense, I'd say we've poured concrete around a foundation of super-glued balsa wood.
Oh, and that Brian fellow. Whats his last name? Crushing? Yeah, missing him the first four games might hurt some too.
4) What will the young defensive line core bring to the table?
The Texans come into this year with two reliable pass rushers: Mario Williams and Antonio Smith. Between Earl Mitchell, Connor Barwin, and Amobi Okoye, the Texans need to find 10-15 sacks and more pressure than they've been getting.
I'm most optimistic about Barwin on the outside, and with his skillset and a full year of training camp at a position he's still very new at, he could push Smith inside on more than just passing downs. Okoye's weight loss certainly couldn't hurt at this point, and perhaps it will even make John McClain stop referring to him as a run-stuffer. I'm hoping there's a surprise in Mitchell, but right now I see him as a third down player in this system, perhaps elevated to the starting lineup after the first couple of months.
Simply put, the absolute best way to disrupt these big passing teams is to get pressure right up the gut. Checkdowns and dumpoffs are still possible when you come from around the corner, but if you get right up in a quarterback's face, the play is virtually over. For far too long, the Texans defense has been incapable of getting anywhere up the middle that doesn't come out of a stunt. As I'm sure most of the site knows, I campaigned for Dan Williams for this very reason. Bill Kollar has elected to go with speed over power, and here's hoping he was right, but I have very low expectations out of that middle of the line again this year. Unless...
5) Will a healthy Mario Williams return to full beast mode?
Here's the question that changes everything about the defense. The Texans managed to post their BEST DEFENSE IN FRANCHISE HISTORY (TM) despite a down year rushing the passer from Mario Williams, who played through a shoulder injury the majority of the year. Williams spent the year deciding to learn how to play run defense at an elite level, and was an underrated factor of the actual run defense improvement.
Now, should Williams reconcile this run defense with his 2007-2008 pass rush form, he might very well put the defense on his back and carry the Texans to the playoffs all by himself. In a star-driven league, you only go as far as your stars go. Because as John Lynch reminded us, big-time players need to play big-time games and drink big-time coffee and come to play the game in a manner that is generally big-time. While Williams managed the injury well enough to be great last year, any further pass rush improvement to the skillset he showed last season would cause a cascade effect that would make the Texans defense look mighty good whether they were coached by Frank Bush, Art Shell, or Napolean.
So how about you, BRB? What questions about the defense (involving the players) pop up in your head as more important than these?
6 recs |
47 comments
|
Comments
Outstanding, as always
TBH, I really don’t hold much hope for our run D this year. I expect plenty of regression, and we won’t be able to flood the box like we did last year. I know I should be more enthusiastic and everything, but I really don’t hold out much hope here.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
please elaborate so I can shoot holes in your theories....
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
It's good to have a goal
but you should probably aim for something attainable.
"MDC: Droppin' knowledge like a librarian with Parkinson's." --Jonathan Loesche
Very quickly
- We didn’t face good QBs last year.
- We will this year.
- We aren’t as bad as our first 4 games. We aren’t as good as our last 12.
- Lose Cushing for 4 games.
- Smaller DTs.
- See Cody stat in article.
OTOH, I see our pass D getting better. Hopefully, the two will offset. Regardless, I still see our defense as mediocre.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
by bigfatdrunk on May 27, 2010 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes, that was quick...
I will take issue with your use of the word “plenty” when describing the degree of regression.
I think the run D will actually be better. Maybe stats-wise, it may not reflect that because I agree the level of the QBs they will face will be better than last year. But, I think the run D will be better overall. What have they lost? Nothing measurable other than not having Cushing for the first four games. What have they gained? A season under their belts with the same Defensive Coordinator, which I know can be a whole other discussion.
I think your point on the pass D getting better will weigh in the favor of the run D also getting better. I assume that is because of better personnel. I don’t see one getting better as causation that the other will decline. I see it helping the whole D getting better.
Sure, the DTs seem to be getting smaller, as in losing weight over the off-season. I don’t think I can say at this point that that will translate to the unit being worse against the run. I’m hoping it will make them more active and fit, translating to no falloff against the run. I see EMFM as one more body to fit into the rotation of DTs who will give the other DTs fewer plays, keeping the unit fresher.
The Cody stat is just that, a stat. I don’t care if he ever carries that stat again. What it tells me is that he can be effective and earned his spot. If he is just average as is being inferred by the criticism, I hope he is just as average this next season.
So, “plenty” of regression? Maybe you will be proven correct and maybe not. I’m not throwing this D under the bus just yet.
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
I like your optimism
But I’m not 100% ready to believe that last year’s improvement to almost-average was anything other than a fluke.
I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.
by tehGrindCrusher on May 27, 2010 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Sucks to lose Cushing.
However, let’s remember that we dealt with three games of buffoonery at SS to start last year. I would have traded Cushing for Pollard in an instant for the first four games of last season. The drop-off from Cushing to Diles is “great” to “mediocre”. The drop-off from Pollard to Busing/Barber is “good” to "dear god stab me in the eye with a rusty AIDS-covered ice-pick.
As for Cody? Eh. If Amobi had played a season like that, people would be blowing him for how much he improved and declaring that he had “taken the next step”. Perhaps the reason that Cody had never played that well before was because he played for the shit-ass Lions for four years. That was his fifth year in the league, and he had potential coming out of college. Let’s give him the benefit of doubt.
I don’t think they’re going to be a top-five defense, but I do think they’ll be good enough for this team to get to the playoffs. However, the offense needs to perform when the game is on the line this season; something that they failed at last year in my opinion.
Regarding the offense and it's effect on the defense
Last year it was what, about the 15th game of the season before they scored a TD on the opening drive? That kind of performance allows other teams to focus on their running game and get it into a groove. The Texans need to get their offense back into that habit of scoring on the opening drive. They’re capable. I think last season, Koobs was over-compensating and trying to force the run to set up the pass. Let’s realize what this team is and reverse that trend. Maybe then, it won’t be as easy on the opponent’s offense to come out and run it themselves.
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
by Rip Jersey on May 27, 2010 1:51 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Nice visuals, Nash
@Rip: I wish I shared your optimism, but I’m still not a big believer in him as a DC, because…
@CFHTim (down below): Our blitzing schemes are horrible, poorly disguised, and as imaginative as an Applebees menu. HOWEVER, if Bush improves here, then y’all might be dead on right. I do admit that I expected much more from our blitzing than what I saw last year.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
Can the blitzing get any worse?
I’m hoping the coaches have gone back and watched the tape and they are scheming their blitz packages better this season. One can only hope that when the season finished they looked at what they didn’t do well and spent the requisite time to improve in those areas. Blitzing sure was near the top of the list….
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
I want to believe too
But I’m a Texans fan.
If BRB ever prints up t-shirts...
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 27, 2010 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
my question is whether or not
Eugene Wilson can stay healthy the entire season.. history isnt in his favor but this will be a huge determining factor on whether the secondary will have an opportunity at picks imo
To answer a question with a question
Will Eugene Wilson even be a starter?
Because Lance seems to think he’s in some hot water.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 27, 2010 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions
You never know with this FO
They are very sneaky
Rudimentary creatures of flesh and blood, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.
My thoughts, loosely similar to Rivers's
—Pressure. Can we achieve it?
—Soft zone. Will we be better at it next year?
—Run defense. Was last year’s improvement an anomaly?
—Deception. Will Frank Bush try any?
—Pictures of Gary Kubiak getting freaky with Gary Coleman. Does Zack Diles have them?
I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.
by tehGrindCrusher on May 27, 2010 12:11 PM CDT reply actions
The problem isn't the zone
We’re doing what a cover-3/cover-2 sets out to do: We don’t get beat deep often. Everything’s kept in front of us (which is why the Texans put a premium on tackling defensive backs)….but that’s the weakness of that zone crap: TEs. It’s not a matter of LBs covering the TEs, but that TEs control the seam where no one is responsible.
With good pressure that won’t matter, but if you don’t get pressure then you’ll see what we saw in 2009: QB to TE consistently.
"Lord, beer me strength."
tGC should edit last part
since Gary Coleman died… either add “’s body” or change name…
"Your mother is a hamster and your father smells of elderberries! Now Go away or I shall taunt you a second time!"
Go Texans!
That was weird timing, wasn't it?
Maybe I should have used Peyton Manning instead.
I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.
by tehGrindCrusher on May 29, 2010 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
INTs = good corner
I disagree with the contention you implied in the post that INTs make a player a good corner. Charles Woodson tied for the league lead with 9, Darrelle Revis had 6, Nnamdi Ashomugha had 1. The last two guys are widely considered to be the two best CBs in the game. Woodson won the DPOY for his play. The point is INTs are great but having more INTs is not necessarily indicative of being a better corner.
I would tweak it....
good CBs make plays on the ball. Whether that’s INTs or Passes Defensed, a good CB will make a play on the ball. It’s been a while since the Texans had CBs who made plays on the ball…
"Lord, beer me strength."
I don't think that INT's make a player a good corner.
Nor was I trying to imply such.
But I do think that the Texans need to get more turnovers.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 27, 2010 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
I think in INT's are a much better indication of the D-line
a good majority of INT’s happen when, someone gets a hand on a ball or, a QB arm. Or when the QB has to get rid if it early because of pressure. There are some coverage int’s that arn’t but atleast 70% are not coverage but other.
You can't fix Dumb or being a VYFB
by Texans-Brocos on May 27, 2010 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions
A few things
This wasn’t the first year Pollard has played at “this level”. The past three years have seen him record 106, 118, and 123 tackles. Last year seemed to go right along with his natural progression so far. He did have 4 interceptions last year, but you should know better than to expect interception numbers to be stable for year to year, or to think they can be used to determine success as a pass defender. There were years when Darrell Green had 2-3 interceptions all season, if interceptions mattered then Green must’ve been a pisspoor corner at best during those years, and we all know that’s not true. Pollard was about the same in coverage last year as he’s ever been, he makes some big plays and gives up others by being overagressive…, and I expect that’ll remain the same for some time to come.
Shaun Cody is a career role player, I agree with that…, but every team needs role players. As for “people who watch the games” seeing him as mediocre at best, well that’s a totally subjective statement. I’m a “people who watched the games” and I commented several times throughout the season that Cody was seemingly always around the ball. I find it unlikely that he was always near the ball and didn’t have a significant impact on the defense in terms of containment or otherwise directing the play into the heart of the defense. He had a larger impact on our run defense than anyone is giving him credit for because he didn’t put up flashy numbers, but the fact that he was a solid role player at a position where before we had a guy who shouldn’t even be in the league played a pretty big part in our improvement against the run overall. So while it’s true that people who watched the games thought that Cody was mediocre at best, there are also people who watched the games that thought Cody played well against the run all year and were giving him credit for our improved run defense even before he was being sacked by armchair general managers in the offseason.
Pollard
Was released by the Chiefs for a reason. Racking up tackles as a safety on a bad defense isn’t the same as what he was asked to do this season. Pollard was a huge negative according to PFF in 08. Not that they are gospel, but there is almost no objective reason to believe that Pollard was good for KC besides tackle numbers.
I’m not even going to get into it with you about Cody. We’ve probably had that argument 8 times. I’m ready to have some more games to look at to see who was right.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 27, 2010 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Well
Here’s an article before he was released last season discussing whether or not Pollard was the best player on the Chiefs’ roster as he was rated by Madden. The author came to the conclusion that he was, come commenters thought otherwise, but that it was even in question is evidence that Pollard didn’t just pop up out of nowhere last season. There were alot of people, chiefs fans and media alike, who were shocked when he was released because he was considered one of their better young defensive players.
http://arrowheadaddict.com/2009/07/21/bernard-pollard-the-chiefs-best-player/
And just to through a quote in from the article…
“The Bonecrusher had the best season of any Chiefs player last year hands down. Pollard was pretty good in pass coverage, despite playing in a secondary with two rookie corners and behind a front seven that generated the lowest team sack total in NFL history. He also led the team in tackles, posting over 90 for the second year in a row (98). He seemed to be involved in almost every forced turnover, as he picked off a pass, forced two fumbles and recovered three fumbles. The latter was good for fourth in the NFL. Additionally, he was often both our surest and hardest tackler. Most importantly, he seemed to be our defensive leader vocally, and was one of the few Chiefs I never saw quit.”
Why does it always have to be about you?
Rudimentary creatures of flesh and blood, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.
I have no idea what you're getting at by that
How can one state their opinion (which is what blogs are about) without including anything from themselves at the same time? The act of stating your opinion is “making it about you”, there’s no way around it. If it’s your opinion that no one should post comments on blogs, say so plainly…. but then if that was truly your opinion you wouldn’t be posting here to begin with because that would be making it about you… unless you’re a hypocrite.
I thought he was joking.
I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.
by tehGrindCrusher on May 29, 2010 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions
I suppose that's possible too
But what’s the punchline? Just seemed like a random comment to me, there’s no telling in what way it was meant to be taken, which is why I said I didn’t understand where he was going with it.
It’s like if you approach someone on the street and asked them why they were wearing blue today… they’d be dumbfounded as to what you meant by it and probably question your sanity.
I thought I was too
Rudimentary creatures of flesh and blood, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.
by nolander on Jun 1, 2010 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think Frank Bush seemed to get more aggressive as year went on.
I started noticing blitzes where Cush and Pollard were both coming, and hadn’t seen him doing that earlier in the season. So hopefully he improves his defensive playcalling, and the defense takes another step forward.
You are banned from Music City Miracles.
Happy Now Tits?
You are banned from Blogging The Boys.
Vince Young - Suicide Doors
This will be a question in the special teams/coaching segment.
Beledat.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 28, 2010 7:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Misspelled Napoleon.
"You got to believe in yourself. Hell, I believe I'm the best-looking guy in the world and I might be right."- Charles Barkley
:D
"You got to believe in yourself. Hell, I believe I'm the best-looking guy in the world and I might be right."- Charles Barkley
by bone31crusher on May 27, 2010 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Eh, screw the French.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 28, 2010 7:39 AM CDT up reply actions
I have a question
If the Rams release Otagwe on June 1st, which is seeming more and more likely, do the Texans go after him? He’s going to command probably more money than he’s worth. But with the FS situation in Houston, is that a possibility?
I'd like to think so.
The Texans sure have the money saved up after their offseason of scrimping.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 28, 2010 7:40 AM CDT up reply actions
I'll say no
He’s too old, and we have shown little interest in signing players over about 27 while Atogwe is 29.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
I have to say...
Napoleon would be an OC not DC… but his OC would destroy everyone except the Russians in winter.
"Your mother is a hamster and your father smells of elderberries! Now Go away or I shall taunt you a second time!"
Go Texans!


























