Rivers' 2010 Shadow Draft
by riversmccown on May 4, 2010 2:30 PM CDT
in News
36 comments
For those of you who haven't seen texanphil's site and don't know what we're doing here, the basic idea of a shadow draft is a simple one: You pick in every spot where the Texans pick, you use whatever scouting tools you have at hand, and you create a team of your own fantasy over the years. The results don't really mean much this early on, because so many of the picks will be judged in the long term rather than in the short term, but it's something fun to create, something goofy to argue about, and something to stare at when you find yourself doubting the Texans' front office. If you start winning over them, that's a bad sign.
My shadow draft for this year will be different from most of yours, because I'm a year ahead of most of you. I am working with a different set of players. For this reason, I am going to take more cornerbacks than you'd think, as without Dunta Robinson, Glover Quin, or Brice McCain, my cornerback depth is up the crapper. Yes, you read that right...it probably would've helped my team here if the Texans had resigned Dunta. I admit it.
Behind the jump, the shadow draft depth chart, before. The picks. Finally, the updated chart.
PREDRAFT
QB: Schaub, Orlovsky
RB: Slaton, Foster, Andre Brown (09, RND 4: 126), Moats
FB: Leach
WR: Johnson, Walter, Jones, Anderson, Davis
TE: Daniels, Dreessen, Casey*
OT: Michael Oher (09, RND 1: 15), Winston, Butler
OG: Brown (moved from T), Smith, Brisiel, White/Studdard
C: Myers, AQ Shipley (09, RND 6: 188)
DE: Williams, Smith, Barwin*, Bulman
DT: Okoye, Cody, Robinson, Chris Baker (09, RND 7: 223)
OLB: Diles, Adibi, Bentley
ILB: Ryans,
CB: Reeves, (gulp) Bennett, Molden
FS Rashad Johnson (09, RND 3, 77), Wilson, Barber
SS Bernard Pollard, Chip Vaughn (09, RND 4, 112)
*-pick I shared with the Texans.
Clearly, this team is extremely deficient in every area of the defense aside from defensive end, middle linebacker, and safety. The good news is that between Rashad Johnson and Chip Vaughn, we have promising players and won't need to burn picks on safeties. The bad news--no Cushing, and who knows what Xavier Adibi will play like once freed from the shackles of Frank Bush's oppression. Offenses would probably run all over this defense without Cushing, so we've got a lot of work to do to make up for that.
The good news? The offensive line is much improved with Duane Brown mauling people inside and Michael Oher being a credible improvement over him. With Andre Brown on the way back from surgery, there isn't as much of a pressing need to draft a running back, as he, like Ben Tate before him, was a former FO Speed Score winner. Center remains a weak point, and we could probably also use a better fullback. But I imagine we'll spend all but one or two picks of this draft on the defensive side of the ball.
1st Round, Pick #20 - Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee - It isn't really much of a debate in my mind. With this draft's perceived depth in corners and nose tackles, we are going to aggressively attack those spots early and often. The only linebacker who is even close to a top-rated player is Sean Weatherspoon, and he's off the board before we even get a pick in. I love Daryl Washington, but it's a little early for him, and I always like to build my team from the line out. I think Williams' earlier years do raise some concerns, but when you look at how much a good pass rush would help this team and how much better he'd fit the 4-3 under than what we have, this is a no-brainer pick to me.
2nd round, Pick #58 - Amari Spievey, CB, Iowa - Spievey isn't exactly my #1 player available here, as I rate both Ben Tate and Morgan Burnett ahead of him, but considering the depth at RB and S and the lack thereof at corner, I feel almost obligated to pop him here. The only other players I'd consider for the Shadow Texans are J.D. Walton and Donald Butler, both of whom aren't as high as Spievey on my board.
3rd round, Pick #81 - Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forest - A surviving pick from my Real Time mock, I feel Ghee is the best prospect available on the board at this point in the draft. Combine that with my need at corner, and you have a real layup of a pick. We're even like the real Texans in that Chip Vaughn gives us an "in" with him. The only prospect that really hurts to pass on here is Penn State OLB Navorro Bowman, who I think has a terrific skill-set for the 4-3 under, if maybe not the kind of makeup the Texans like.
4th round, Pick #102 - Geno Atkins, DT, Georgia - In my eyes, Atkins and Texans draftee Earl Mitchell are essentially swappable. So why does Atkins make sense in the fourth round while Mitchell didn't in the third? It's mainly about Brandon Ghee compared to the fourth round corners. Also, actually having a nose tackle, the shadow Texans can now worry about players who will be part-time in 2010. I love Amobi Okoye, but given his track record, it definitely makes sense to make sure there's a backup plan in place.
4th round, Pick #118 - Eric Norwood, OLB, South Carolina - I worry a little about Norwood being a complete fit in the 4-3 under, given his rather un-instinctual play, but given what the Shadow Texans have at OLB, I think I'd be crazy to pass on him here. At the very least, he becomes a third down rusher, and there's probably the potential for a lot more here.
5th round, Pick #144 - Matt Tennant, C, Boston College - A pure value pick. I really am worried about Chris Myers, and even though I already went to this well in the sixth round last year, Tennant was a Day 2 talent while Shipley was always more of a late round guy. I, of course, also considered Cam Thomas, but I have enough faith in Dan Williams as a #1 NT and Shaun Cody as a backup that I'm satisfied with the situation. I'm not satisfied with center.
6th round, Pick #187 - Dezmon Briscoe, WR, Kansas - For everything I wrote here.
6th round, Pick #197 - Dekoda Watson, OLB, Florida State - Watson is a pretty flawless scheme fit as a 4-3 under WLB. The only reasons he went this low in the real draft were terrible coaching and off-field problems. However, in the sixth round, I'm willing to overlook these and get the best player on the board.
7th round, Pick #227 - Patrick Stoudamire, CB, Western Illinois - For everything I wrote here.
POSTDRAFT
QB: Schaub, Orlovsky
RB: Slaton, Foster, Andre Brown (09, RND 4: 126), Moats
FB: Leach
WR: Johnson, Walter, Jones, Anderson, Dezmon Briscoe (10, RND 6: 187), (Davis)
TE: Daniels, Dreessen, Casey*
OT: Michael Oher (09, RND 1: 15), Winston, Butler
OG: Brown (moved from T), Smith, Brisiel, White/Studdard
C: Myers, Matt Tennant (10, RND 5: 144), AQ Shipley (09, RND 6: 188)
DE: Williams, Smith, Barwin*, Bulman
DT: Dan Williams (10, RND 1: 20), Okoye, Geno Atkins (10, RND 4: 102) Cody, (Robinson), Chris Baker (09, RND 7: 223)
OLB: Eric Norwood (10, RND 4: 118), Diles, Dekoda Watson (10, RND 6: 197), Adibi, Bentley
ILB: Ryans
CB: Reeves, Amari Spievey (10, RND 2: 58), Brandon Ghee (10, RND 3, 81), (gulp) Bennett, Patrick Stoudmaire (10, RND 7, 227), Molden
FS Rashad Johnson (09, RND 3, 77), Wilson, Barber
SS Bernard Pollard, Chip Vaughn (09, RND 4, 112)
What do you think BRB? Sexy? I know I couldn't address everything in one draft, but I think this is a pretty stellar class. A much smarter one than I put together in 09, in my mind.
1 recs |
36 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
NT is a cry by most
but whos to say he wont turn out to be another bust with an incinsistent motor like Frank O-Dam
we’ve wasted 1st b4 and its probably scared Kubes away jus like the old RB experiment
by HB23 on May 4, 2010 4:06 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Frank Okam is a bum
and I think more of the exception not the rule..
"Your mother is a hamster and your father smells of elderberries! Now Go away or I shall taunt you a second time!"
Go Texans!
Letting a 5th round pick that bombed out dictate your strategy in the first round
Not fun.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
There's a bunch of high pick DTs who haven't worked out well in recent years
Everybody is chasing that run stopper, and over-drafting for them, but it is a hard position to develop and lots of bustacular players. Think of how many first round, draft-hyped DTs have been really disappointing in recent years. (Okoye had HUGE pre-draft hype. NFLDraftScout compared him to Reggie White of all people). I think people want the Haynesworth-type player who can change an entire defense, but even fat Albert wasn’t that way early in his career.
I’m not saying that I wouldn’t like to see better and more physical run-stopping DTs for the Texans, but I’m not sure that Dan Williams = problem solved. In fact, I’d rather see a non-hyped, big boy, already-a-man free agent in that spot than trying to develop another DT from scratch.
The thing is
I’m not seeing the big NT as purely a run stopper. Williams was the best of the mammoths at drawing doubles and still pushing the pocket.
I do agree that Williams had a much higher inherent bust rate than the corners (although I would’ve taken Kyle Wilson, which I’ll get into sometime soon), because he only really had the one excellent season. I even made a Devil’s Advocate argument to that effect on Diehards when Chris asked me to take the Earl Thomas side. But to me the potential that he adds to both the pass defense (mostly through doubles) and the run defense outweighs the risks of bustdom. Especially considering how important a true nose is to the 4-3 under.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 5, 2010 7:08 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Williams won't be so mammoth
when he’s trying to collapse an NFL Oline pocket. The reason that many high pick DTs haven’t worked out is because they’re are downright beastly in college compared to their opposition. Highly touted DTs become coveted because they are seen manhandling college Olines on their athleticism alone. When they get to the NFL, they have to develop a cerebral approach to go with that athleticism (as well as becoming stronger, faster, more athletic as well) and this obviously takes time. DT is probably one of the toughest positions to succeed at currently in the NFL because teams are putting SO much emphasis on getting premier tackles and guards to protect their franchise QB in the pass-happy NFL.
The Texans brass’ philosophy for this draft was simple as this..“we have the most brutal schedule in league next year, facing top offenses and defenses all throughout in a year where we are all losing our jobs if we don’t get this team to the playoffs. We think we have a great core of young players on both sides. We need to add as much competiton and depth to this roster as possible. We need to add as much athleticism as possible. We think that adding athletes across the board will help us make that one play a game that we need to go from 9-7 to 11-5. Most importantly, we need to draft guys who are smart, motivated and fit our system and they need to be ready to compete RIGHT NOW, otherwise we will be manhandled by the sheer experience of the teams we’re playing next year”
Whether we like it or not, we’ll see how their approach pays out.
by leacheatsbabies on May 5, 2010 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, okay.
But I disagree, think Williams will be a successful NFL nose tackle, and am noting such.
You can root for the team to be right without thinking they are doing things perfectly.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 5, 2010 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Fair comment.
But I don’t think Dan Williams at 20 is a no-brainer. There may be a reason(s) we don’t know of (medicals, interviews, investigations) why a lot of teams that you might have thought would have been interested in him skipped.
From what we know, I think the Texans choice at #20 was a question of 1. Make-do; and 2. Immediate impact. I think the Texans were looking for a defensive player who could make an immediate impact like Cushing did. I think they could make-do at DT versus use 2010 as a training year for a rookie; but that CB was a more pressing concern. Texans haven’ t drafted a corner high since Dunta Robinson. And even the best defensive tackles usually do not produce right away.
Let me spin that back at you
How many corners have come in and played well as rookies right away? It’s a fairly short list. Dunta, of course, was terrific as a rookie. Darrelle Revis needed some time to grow, Nmandi needed some time to grow. I definitely could see Jackson being ready for the system right away, but putting a rookie cornerback out against the quarterbacks we’ll be facing this year is also quite a risk.
And in no way am I saying that Williams is a no-brainer in the eyes of the Texans…they have their draft system, and I think it’s a great one. I like Jackson just fine. But in my own eyes, looking at what we needed versus what we had, I think Reeves is undervalued and was puzzled he didn’t get more time—he’s a perfectly cromulent cornerback.. I think Quin has a chance to take a step forward if he can get better bursts on quick outs and curls, and I think McCain showed enough last year to where I wouldn’t be pressured to take the best available corner at 20. Wheras when you look at nose tackle, you have Shaun Cody, who screams fluke to me, Deljuan Robinson, who I don’t think has more than rotation upside, and Jeff Zgonina, who is going to be the first NFL player to collect pension checks while still in the league. Upgrading that area from a bunch of career backups to someone who might not be terrific right away but has immense upside and is a system fit for the actual 4-3 under, and not the bastardized Kollar-Bush all-penetration 4-3, is a no-brainer move to me.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 5, 2010 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Quin and Mccain did well as rookies (Quin moreso)
but we had a “franchise player” in Dunta Robinson at CB1. You can’t go into a do or die year relying on two late round rookies and a bench full of never-was players at CB..QBs and WRs are just too good these days to not put a premium on corner talent. Now, it doesn’t matter if we had Zgonina, Cody or Betty White at the under tackle…our run defense was in the top half of the league. The pass rush was the problem, and I don’t know about you..but I don’t see Dan Williams collapsing pockets against Indy, Philly, Dallas, NYG, NYJ, etc. Maybe sometime down the line he will, but the Texans are in win-now-or-we’re-homeless mode.
by leacheatsbabies on May 5, 2010 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions
We went 9-7
With Dunta Robinson being horrendous all year. I think we can do that with Quin and Reeves starting.
It’s becoming a pass dominated league, yes, but ONCE AGAIN, let me point out that Williams is a pick for the pass rush as well as the run defense. Let me point out that because of the pass domination, QB pressure is more important than non-playmaking defensive backs. Which, by the way, Jackson did not show much of (I believe it’s 5 INT’s in 3 years?)
Additionally, I think our run defense, statistically, was a fluke.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
Also, considering we played the
Oakland Raiders of the league, I’d be damned if we didn’t rank among the top half of the NFL.
by typhoon.infamous on May 5, 2010 8:21 PM CDT up reply actions
If you mean "cromulent" in the ironic sense, I agree
I think Jackson is going to have to have his head on straight because you can’t hide cornerback incompetence. He’s going to be tested against some great quarterbacks, especially early in the season, and he could turn into the human torch.
But yeah, in a league where 10 quarterbacks had over 4000 yards, you best have your corners in order, and I didn’t feel comfortable at all going into this season with Reeves/Quin as your options….what happens if either of those guys get hurt like Reeves did last year?
Rookie corners get exposed, but they have the potential to be impact makers earlier than rookie DTs.
Do I feel comfortable with the Texans run defense? @#$%ity @#$% no. Do I think a rookie DT could do squat about that within the next 3 years? @#$%ity @#$% no. Most DTs do not have a Haloti Ngata effect their first year, and think of the number of high round bust defensive tackles in recent years. It’s because they are overdrafted because everyone is looking for The Guy.
At this point, especially how they use defensive tackles, I’d settle more for some non-flashy free agent big guy who has already gone through his rookie stupidity and Kollar thinks fits what they do.
In sum, I’d rather make-do at DT than make-do at corner. I’d like both of those positions to be better than make-do, but teams have to make choices sometimes.
This really boils down into two separate issues
One: the order in which we needed to address these positions. I was more comfortable with the second-third round corners than I was with the second-third round noses. Both now and going forward.
I have no issue with addressing corner, I just think that the gulf between Williams and say, Cam Thomas or Linval Joseph, was greater than the gap between Jackson, Kyle Wilson, McCourty, Speivy, Ghee, and the like. The Texans made their pick on talent, and I don’t doubt their DB talent process. The Texans also decided to forgo NT altogether, which I feel is a huge mistake.
Second issue: what do you feel like is the best course of action for stopping the big passing game? The Texans have loaded up on cover corners and are trying to get pass rush by loading the line with quick guys who get penetration. I feel like you get a better pass rush with a power T that can draw a double, letting Mario and Amobi (Mitchell, or whatever replacement) and Smith beat someone one-on-one, then loading the backfield with playmakers that can intercept the ball. The way they’ve changed the rules, I don’t think it’s really possible to defeat a NO-Indy type passing game with coverage alone. You need to pressure them into the few bad throws you can get and make a play on those, then outscore them.
As far as rookie NT vs. rookie CB, I think they have about the same learning curve. I was only trying to say that I don’t think the learning curve matters as much as the position and player matters.
BTW, I’d LOVE to see a column about rookie NT’s vs rookie CB’s. That would be some interesting research.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on May 6, 2010 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Question:
The Sherrick pick still has me confused. I’m trying to figure him out. The quick research I did on him didn’t show me anything great. Walter football had him ranked as the #33 CB in the draft with a draft grade of 7th round or UDFA. Someone explained that he was a zone CB and different teams draft based on type of corner to fit scheme either man or zone. It was explained that he was a “good” zone cover corner. If Jackson is another zone CB and if you still can’t get to the QB due to a lack of pass rush from your front 4, what are your expectations regarding coverage, passing yards allowed, YAC, etc…? What happens when you actually play tougher teams (outside of the division) this year with good QB’s, good pass protection, no defensive pass rush from the front 4 (Texans) and a bunch of zone cover corners? What expectations do you have for your division since they went 1-5 last year and from what I can tell you really haven’t done anything different on D except replace your CB who covers the #1 WR? Wasn’t our pass defense middle of the pack last year? How do you expect things to be better than last year especially when your playing tougher teams without doing anything to address the pass rush (and no I don’t believe adding Mitchell addressed the pass rushing problem)?
The questions posed make me believe that if we play zone coverage with our CB’s and we do not add a pass rush from our front 4, even though they have shown they can stop the run, I can see us getting picked apart by some of the better QB’s by them having time to throw and their WR’s finding the holes and seams in the zone coverage. These are just some concerns I have going into this season and I have to say I agree with Rivers on this one.
Confucius say "man who enter door sideways going to Bangkok".
Open competition, I suppose.
Maybe even a combo. Diles on run downs, Norwood on pass?
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
Link to last years?
Rudimentary creatures of flesh and blood, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.
Here
You are a gentleman and a scholar
thank you.
Rudimentary creatures of flesh and blood, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.
Thought about Jamar Chaney
But yeah, I thought the weak depth at OLB was more important.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
i think we should have had a mock draft here on BRB
That’s all I have to say about your stupid shadow draft. I’m really not interested in it.
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
by Rip Jersey on May 4, 2010 10:25 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Congratulations your a douchebag.
Rudimentary creatures of flesh and blood, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.
Cool.
Sorry my free post didn’t entertain you. Go complain to Tim about getting your money back.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
I got my satisfaction when you replied
I’m wondering where the payback is by you partaking in the shadow draft. Oh, that’s right, you didn’t have to do any work…always a bonus.
I did enjoy your ZBS post, though. It was very interesting and poignant. More of those, please.
Really, I am just being sarcastic about the shadow draft. I’m sorry you didn’t take it that way. I will be more careful in how I joke around with you in the future. I went too far this time. Sorry. I hope we can put it all behind us and be friends. You’re an excellent writer. And, that’s the truth. No kidding around. I also really enjoyed your posts from the Combine. Excellent and time well spent from the aspect of the readers of this blog if I may speak for everyone.
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
I'm not really offended or anything
It’s just hard to pick up on sarcasm on the internet, particularly if the person is normally serious.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
Or generally a jackass
Which is probably why my sarcasm is unnoticed sometimes
Rudimentary creatures of flesh and blood, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.
i picked up on your sarcasm.....
Both times.
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
by Rip Jersey on May 5, 2010 9:30 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Okay, now I'm offended
I am NEVER serious! Have you read my FanPosts?
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
by Rip Jersey on May 5, 2010 9:33 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Worthless comment
Obviously, you ARE interested since you read and posted about it.
by RocketsAstros on May 5, 2010 6:47 AM CDT up reply actions
I think you should grow up.
That’s all I have to say about your stupid comment(s). I’m really not interested in it/them.
"I'm just looking forward to something great happening in the city of Houston" - Tracy McGrady
Still waiting...
by DreKeem on May 5, 2010 7:07 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
my draft was a little different
alde2356
20. Dan Williams DT Tennessee
- for reasons well documented
58. Ben Tate RB Auburn
- I actually really like this pick. predraft i wasnt a fan of of drafting a rb but after reading up more im liking it more every day.
81. Brandon Ghee CB Wake Forest – see above ^^
102. Bruce Campbell OT Maryland- i didnt like the oline and i really liked bruce campbell
118. Akwasi Owusu-Ansah CB Indiana (PA)
- ive read some really good things about him. he seems like he would be a fit and give more depth at corner.
144. Stevenson Sylvester OLB Utah – to be honest i didnt really know what to pick here. the guy seems like a competitor.
187. Shelley Smith OG Colorado State- more for the line
197. Myron Rolle SS Florida State – love the guy. who doesnt want a rhode scholar on the team. former all american. i cant belive the titans got this guy.
227. Dorin Dickerson TE Pittsburgh
Yeah
I think my draft would look a lot more like that if I didn’t already have the first shadow draft base in place.
Probably would’ve gone Williams-Tate-Ghee for sure, maybe someone else at 118 and my sleepers later. But it’s a solid bunch of picks.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
shadow drafting questions
No plans to shadow draft but, on your shadow draft are you also thinking about the “financial” aspects of your picks like investing too many high picks on the DL?
did you pick the 1st round pick after the ‘actual’ first round has completed? for your 1st pick, are you only allowed to pick from the list of ‘actual first round picks’ and vice versa for other rounds?
How it works:
If we had higher round picks, I would absolutely factor money into the decision if we were picking higher. From #20, it didn’t factor into my thinking. Especially this year with the uncertainty of the cap in future years.
I select my picks after the draft is over, usually after about 3 or 4 days of reflection. You’re allowed to pick anyone who was picked after that pick was made, or keep the pick if you want. The reason I do this in retrospect instead of right away is because if you do it live, you’re liable to draft someone who could go a round or two later earlier than they should go, and if you’re an NFL front office I think you generally have a good idea of where guys are going. For example, in the live draft I did on texanphil’s site, I picked Mitch Petrus with the first pick in the fourth round, and he lasted long enough to be selected in the fifth. This lets you get the maximum amount of value for each pick, in your mind.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Battle Red Blog
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
