CBSSports.com Presents: Your Fantasy Football First Round
Look, everyone knows fantasy football season is fast approaching. You might as well set your draft board, yes? I've decided that I will spill my knowledge and reasoning for picks, so that others might one day benefit. So this will be at least a few series long. I'm going to start with first round picks, the place where your draft can't be made, but it can be destroyed. Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson say hello.
My first round rules are pretty core: My order of preference is RB-WR-QB, but my RB pool is often quite shallow simply because running backs can reach the thin line between "proven" and "past their prime" so fast that it's hard to tell. In the first round, I'm looking for my running back to have an established track record of recent goodness, be under 29, and have no competition for his job. Ergo, my first round looks like this:
Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Adrian Peterson top my list. Why MJD over Peterson? Less competition for snaps is part of it, but also the fumbling problem makes me feel a bit uneasy. All three of these guys have multiple great seasons under their belt and meet my age requirements for a first round pick. After that you have the small questions tier: Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, and Frank Gore. Jackson has all the tools but is stuck on a bad offense that will likely be passing a lot, which can make the difference between a 12/51/TD day and a 20/90/TD day. Rice has all the tools and skills, along with the youth, but he's only done it one season. If you'd like to know why that matters, Kevin Jones, Joseph Addai, and Matt Forte would like to have a word with you. Finally, Gore is terrific and looks to be on a good team, but his injury history really scares me. There is one thing worse than having a first round pick with a bad situation: a first round pick that can go down for the season on any snap.
Andre Johnson is, of course, a safe first-round play this year. As is Drew Brees. I'd probably slot them both under Steven Jackson, in that order. After that, it feels like there is a lot more risk this year than usual at the back of the first round. Lots of running backs down there have the same problem Rice has: only one good season. Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, and Shonn Greene fall under this umbrella. The normally dependable wideouts like Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne have a reason or two for you to doubt them, and even Tom Brady is coming off a really bad season.
After that first eight, it gets really tough for me. If you had me fill out 10, I'd probably give you Aaron Rodgers and either Fitzgerald or Roddy White. Remember kids, safety comes first in the first round.
And by the way, what better way to run your league than through CBSSports.com and their Fantasy Football Commissioner League? Completely customizable, terrific setup, the greatness of being under the same umbrella as Shannon Sharpe, what more could you want? Knock on the door and tell them your buddies from SB Nation sent you and you'll get 50% off! Fast real-time scoring updates, a terrific amount of keeper league options, what more could you want in a fantasy league?
If you still want to get in on BRB's own wacky fun-time league, The Jonathan Wells Memorial League, which forces you to chase awful players, there is still at least one spot left. We could have up to three if enough people want in. I'm capping it at 14.
What say you BRB? Who are your top 10 picks?
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agree with your top 3...
assuming CJ will play the season…
then i go
(1. CJ)
(2. MJD)
(3. AP)
4. Ray Rice
5. Steven Jackson
6. Gore
7. AJ
8. Jamaal Charles
9. Brees
10. Fitz
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jun 27, 2010 3:09 PM CDT reply actions
Gotta disagree with 10 and anyone taking Fitzgerald high
The Cardinals go from HOFer Kurt Warner to Matt Leinart and lose Anquan Boldin bumping two unproven guys to the starter and slot. Because of that, I got to think defenses will focus heavy on Fitzgerald and force Leinart to hit Breaston and Doucet or use Beanie Wells.
I just think it’s too risky to take Fitzy in round 1 or 2.
"Lord, beer me strength."
I agree.
"You got to believe in yourself. Hell, I believe I'm the best-looking guy in the world and I might be right."- Charles Barkley
by bone31crusher on Jun 27, 2010 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not sold on it
But I am more sold on Fitzgerald’s talent than I am anyone else who is going top 10, possibly exempting a QB.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jun 28, 2010 7:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Pick me!
Oh oh! Pick me for your league!
My baseball team has gone in the shitter, so I’m looking forward to fantasy football earlier than usual.
Got an email addy?
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jun 28, 2010 7:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Wait, nevermind
Just realized BRB Radio takes care of that. I’m an idiot.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jun 28, 2010 7:16 AM CDT up reply actions
My top 10 plus 11 and 12
1.) Adrian Peterson- While fumbles were an issue, I worry about Johnson with the contract/durability and MJD is good but he’s in Tier 1.5 compared to CJ and AP.
2.) Chris Johnson
3.) Maurice Jones-Drew- Good player but stuck on a team without a passing game
4.) Ray Rice- I believe he will lap MJD by season’s end
5.) Frank Gore
6.) Steven Jackson (too bad he’s not on a good team)
7.) Shonn Greene: He’s the lead dog for the Jets and a 2nd year guy (LT doesn’t have much left in the tank), so he could be the Ray Rice of 2010.
8.) Andre Johnson: the safest WR in this class
9.) Drew Brees: Between him and Manning
10.) Beanie Wells: Look for a breakout season from him
11.) Payton Manning
12.) Larry Fitzgerald: Injuries prevent him from getting to Andre Johnson level
B^2
In Daryl Morey, Rick Smith and Ed Wade we (usually) trust.
I wouldn't count on Greene being pretty good.
The Jets lost Faneca, weakening their interior, where Greene likes to run.
"You got to believe in yourself. Hell, I believe I'm the best-looking guy in the world and I might be right."- Charles Barkley
by bone31crusher on Jun 27, 2010 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Pretty good top-10
although I dunno about Roddy White over, say, Randy Moss.
I think I might also consider Michael Turner with your second group of RBs.
Trust WR's tthat are going to be 33 at your own peril.
Randy’s had a hell of a career but I dunno if I trust him as a first rounder this year, particularly considering no Welker and how poor Brady looked last year.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jun 28, 2010 7:06 AM CDT up reply actions
ya
but Moss is also in a contract year (right?), it seems like elite WRs can age slower than other NFL positions, and I’m not sure what you are talking about re: Welker: I thought he was back for game 1 next year? But ya, Brady sucked last year. In any case, if I was drafting today, I’d definitely take Moss over Roddy White in a second.
Re: Welker
Patriots beat writer Mike Reiss predicts that Wes Welker (ACL, shoulder surgeries) will open training camp on the PUP list and stay there for the first six weeks of the regular season.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jun 29, 2010 5:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Here is my first two picks...
First Round is in specific order…
Andre Johnson, (usually everyone goes RB and QB in the first Round so AJ is usually available even late in the draft.)
Best available out of (CJ, MJD, AP, Gore)
Second Round: Matt Schaub (since he is the most over looked QB in the league by everyone except Texan fans)
Larry Fitzgerald, Austin Collie, Steelers D (ooooh Defense second round???? lol just to eff with everyone I usually throw a D out there…) or best available RB
"Your mother is a hamster and your father smells of elderberries! Now Go away or I shall taunt you a second time!"
Go Texans!
I...
want to play in whatever league you play in
My top 10
1. Maurice Jones-Drew – He’s the clear cut number one guy and the offense’s best weapon especially near the goal line.
2. Ray Rice – Whaaaaa? Yeah, I think he’s almost identical to MJD as a rusher and passer. The Ravens offense has a true passing game with Boldin now. I wanted to put him first, but I’m not sure with him yet.
3. Steven Jackson – He is the Rams offense. He has been for a while, and no one stops him. It’s a shame that he’s wasting his years in St. Louis because he’s a true every down back. He’ll get his yards and TDs.
4. Adrian Peterson – The fumbles scare me. They definitely employ the two back system to preserve their guy. I’m not a big fan of Toby Gerhart, but I think he’ll vulture some TDs away.
5. Chris Johnson – NFL history says, unless you’re Barry Sanders, that 2,000 yard rushers don’t have big years the following season. Add that to the fact that he wants to get paid and I have to knock him down some.
6. Michael Turner – He’ll bounce back. He’s lighter, quicker, and he’ll bounce back. Turner’s too good not to bounce back.
7. Frank Gore – His injury situation is the only reason he’s here, but if healthy then he’s a stud.
8. Andre Johnson – Larry Fitzgerald is going to see a lot of coverage now that Boldin’s gone while Reggie Wayne’s in an offense with too many other good weapons. Andre’s the best receiver in the best situation. He’ll rack up near 100 catches with near 1,500 yards. It’s become the norm. I wish he scored double digit TDs, but no one’s perfect.
9. Peyton Manning – It’s all about safety right? What else does he do besides throw 4,000+ yards with 35+ TDs? It’s automatic. More so than Mendenhall, Charles, or Greene.
10. Drew Brees – He puts up video game numbers, but I rank him behind Peyton for fear of Super Bowl hangover.
"Lord, beer me strength."
I'd put CJ and AP over Jackson.
I agree with you on CJ not having another stellar year though.
"You got to believe in yourself. Hell, I believe I'm the best-looking guy in the world and I might be right."- Charles Barkley
by bone31crusher on Jun 27, 2010 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions
+ for putting MJD first. He’s easily the safest pick of the top RBs
- for putting Manning 9th. While he is also a safe QB, almost similar fantasy points at QB can be had much cheaper than this.
by killtacular on Jun 28, 2010 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions
I have zero faith in Turner.
Only had one good year as a full time guy to begin with, that’s strike one. Curse of 370, strike 2. Age 28 season, that’s pretty close to the end, granted he never had much of a full workload as a young’n.
Combine that with Matt Ryan getting better and Dunta meaning the Falcons will need to play catchup, and I can’t see drafting him in the first. Maybe in the second.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter
by riversmccown on Jun 28, 2010 7:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Top 10
Steven Jackson is well represented in the comments and in the article. That is a bit refreshing because he is falling out of the top eight in many early draft boards.
I think Steven Jackson should easily be a top five pick after the big boys: AP, CJ, and MJD. He should be grouped with Gore and Rice.
Victims of LaDanian Tomlinson
Present. Damn auto-draft. I don’t usually go RB in the first round, because they’re never a sure thing. I prefer going with a WR with a proven QB that’s throwing at him. Basically what im saying is: Andre Johnson or Bust!
by Jordann on Jun 28, 2010 7:16 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
And for the Jonathan Wells Memorial League
You can never go wrong with picking a Bucaneers QB.
by Jordann on Jun 28, 2010 7:19 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Chris Johnson + toughest schedule + VY =
Sub 1600 yard year. CJ knows that if he doesn’t get paid before the season starts that he won’t have too much of a leg to stand on (physically and monetarily) after facing the toughest schedule in the NFL for 2010 (tied with us because it is the same schedule).
VY will keep the ball and run more than Kerry “Tom” Collins & will cut into some of CJ’s runs. Plus, the better defenses they will face will key in more on CJ.
Thus, I think CJ is a bottom 1st/top 2nd RB based on these other factors.
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