Prognostibating: The 53-Man Roster, Take 1 - Special Teams

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 6, 2010 7:01 PM CDT

This is the last in this mini-series of my first takes on the 53-man roster come Opening Week. Here's the offense and the defense. I guarantee I will be dead-on accurate, or your money back.* After the jump, we'll take my usually high-brow look at the Special Teams, and I'll try to not get the blog a new referral for "zombie sex."^

PR/KR: Trindon Holliday. Maybe.

PR/KR Thoughts: Can Mighty Mite win the job in pre-season? That's really the question here. As we've reviewed, Kubiak was not impressed with Holliday during OTAs (though Holliday's narcolepsy does seem to be impressive, via Jakespeare on Twitter). If he does not, Jacoby Jones will return punts while, I'd imagine, Andre Davis does make the team as the ~~fifth~~ sixth WR and KR. Jacoby, by the way, was far more impressive at kick returns than was Davis last year. And if I said it once, I said it at least a couple of times: Davis seemed to have this "tackle magnet" in his belt, seemingly purposefully running into mobs last year. It's not that Davis' 23.7 kick return average was bad, but he clearly has lost a step in the return game. Another year of aging will exacerbate the problem.

Right now, I don't see a scenario where Dorin Dickerson doesn't make the team. This means we carry a minimum of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Jakespeare, David Anderson, and Dorin. That's five WRs already. In other words, unless a defensive player wins a return job, we are going to carry a return specialist of some sort regardless. Whether that's Davis or Holliday, it's too early to call. I'm going with Holliday primarily because I can visualize him busting a couple of huge returns in pre-season. That, alone, might warrant him a starting job,

P: Matt Turk

P Thoughts: Turk is what he is at this stage of his career: a middle-of-the-line punter who doesn't hurt you. In that respect, he's no Chad Stanley.

(Waits while Tim convulses)

K: Kris Brown

K Thoughts: Wait, what? Did I...hold on...(looks above, I typed that? Oh crap. Need to justify somehow. Ummmm. Oh, I've got an idea)...yes, you read that correctly: Kris Brown.

(That's right, bfd, they're putty in your masterful hands.)

Here's why: I think the Texans are going with the evil they know. Both are 34 years old, so it's not like there's some age factor. And, before last season, our own chrisd21 had coined Kris Brown as Ca$h Money. With good reason.

At this stage of their careers, Brown likely has the better long-distance range. Neil Rackers is just 4-11 over the past three years from 50 yards plus, while Brown, even with his struggles, is 9-12 (including 2-4 last year).

Brown will win this battle.

LS: Joel Dreesen

LS Thoughts: My biggest miss last year was believing Kubiak that he would take a dedicated long snapper. That bastard lied to me. LIED! This year, I'm not going to fall for it.

The team has only so much room for specialists, and if my Holliday hunch is correct (isn't Holliday Hunch a restaurant off Piedmont?), Jonathan Weeks, the only true long snapper on the roster, is pushed out. From what I hear, Weeks is a heckuva nice guy, so don't be surprised if I root for him (though, you know, he did go to Baylor. GAG!).

So, let's review and see where I'm over (I love this part).

QB: Matt Schaub, Dan Orlovsky (2)

RB: Arian Foster, Steve Slaton, Ben Tate (5)

FB: Vonta Leach (6)

TE: Owen Daniels, Joel Dreessen, James Casey, Garrett Graham (~~763~~ 10)

WR: Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, David Anderson, Dorin Dickerson, Trindon Holliday (16)

OT: Duane Brown, Eric Winston, Rashad Butler, Adam Stenavich (20)

OG/C: Mike Brisiel, Wade Smith, Kasey Studdard (weep), Chris Myers, Chris White, Antoine Caldwell (26)

DE: Connor Barwin, Tim Bulman, Tim Jamison, Mario Williams, Antonio Smith, Jesse Nading (32)

DT: Shaun Cody, Earl Mitchell, Frank Okam, Amobi Okoye, DelJuan Robinson (37)

LB: Kevin Bentley, Danny Clark, Zac Diles, DeMeco Ryans, Darryl Sharpton, Xavier Adibi, Brian Cushing (43 without Cushing for the first four games)

S: Dominique Barber, Bernard Pollard, Eugene Wilson (46)

CB: Brice McCain, Sherrick McManis, Antwaun Molden, Glover Quin, Kareem Jackson, Jacques Reeves (52, and uh oh)

K: Kris Brown (53)

P: Matt Turk (54)

It looks like I'm one over. If I had to choose, my current last cut would be Stenavich, but I'd more strongly prefer to carry only three tight ends.

That's it for now. I'll re-visit this throughout the pre-season, right up until roster cuts.

* Offer not valid in the Milky Way.

^ Seriously, somebody googled "zombie sex" and actually wound up here. Who knew? I blame papabear.

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Comments

I too like the miniature rocket to make the team

and ideally be able to handle both PR & KR. If Dorin Dickerson lasted until the 7th round, is it that you think it is too big a risk to carry him on the practice squad? I’d like to keep apostrophe as an insurance policy and develop Dickerson for the future if that makes any sense. Actually I’d like to trade Davis for a 4-6, but that doesn’t seem likely.

Rackers had a nagging injury last year that hurt his length. If KB is truly head and shoulders above Neil in the 50+ category, then maybe he deserves the job, but I just have a feeling that Rackers will be the guy. I think it will be the most interesting camp battle.

I agree that 3 TE’s makes more sense than 4, but if Graham is as good as he seems to be then how can we let him go? Kubes loves him some TE’s. Can’t we stash Stenavich on the practice squad?

It took the Astros 44 years to get to the Series, the Oilers-Texans are due to get to the big dance...Go Texans!!!!!

by oiler-texan diehard on Jul 6, 2010 8:59 PM CDT reply actions

Let's see

Maybe because I’m really intrigued by Dorin, but I think he might sign with a different team if we cut him.

There’s no way we could trade Davis, especially with his contract.

Yeah, I have no idea what will happen with Rackers v. Brown (2010). I went with Brown just by default, mostly because he’s been here, and Kubiak and Smith have shown him a lot of loyalty.

Graham I see making the roster purely as insurance of OD leaving us at the end of the year.

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 7, 2010 8:43 AM CDT up reply actions

Dickerson

Is a 6’2 220 lb WR with 4.4 speed who played LB one season in college. With his size and speed and the fact that he at least practiced tackling people before, he’ll probably be a terror on special teams and would probably make the team for that reason alone whether he had the potential he does at WR or not.

Players deep on the depth chart usually earn their spots through special teams, and i’m going to go out on a limb and say Dickerson is going to a beast on our cover teams.

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions

It's nice that KB has 50+ range...

but if he continues to struggle from 49- then he goes. Can’t be missing makeable FGs.

I bet if you had your way….Studdard would be cut, yes?

"Lord, beer me strength."

by TexansDC on Jul 6, 2010 9:10 PM CDT reply actions

No...

Possibly. On the o-line, we have to see if Brisiel is healthy, first. I still think he’s the lynch-pin for us on the line. If he’s healthy, we can trim here, and there’s some good young talent on the line. If anything, I’d be happy to keep Smith over Studdard.

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 7, 2010 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions

Weeks is special?

Listen to coach Joe talk about Weeks and Holliday, he is enamored with both. I believe both are locks to make the final 53.

Now add Malcolm Shepperd to the DT rotation and drop Robinson and/or Okam.

It's Our Time.... or something...

by bennprince on Jul 6, 2010 9:58 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

Marciano likes them, yes

But he’s also the special teams coach, so of course he does :-)

As for Sheppard over Robinson and/or Okam…well, look at it this way. If we believe the team is struggling in the red zone due to ZBS, which focuses on smaller, more agile offensive linemen*, then I believe the corollary fits defensively. Smith and Bulman can move inside fairly seamlessly, but they are also on the lighter end of the scale.

Robinson has at least shown something during game-time (he was pretty decent in 2008), but Okam has not. If it’s either, I’m afraid it’ll be Okam. But both of these guys are more true UTs than anybody on the rest of the team.

Finally, Sheppard is a UDFA. Every year, Kubiak will find a rookie lineman he falls for. A couple years back, it was Bulman, and Bulman is the only one in that scenario who has made the roster.

I believe you can still score using ZBS in the red zone, but not with Chris Brown dives, ya know?

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 7, 2010 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions

Zombie Sex?

living the Texas dream

by Joe25 on Jul 6, 2010 10:48 PM CDT reply actions

Google it bitch

I googled zombie rape and landed on astros.com

by AllenOU on Jul 7, 2010 12:22 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Well, yeah

Cuz that makes sense. The Astros are undead, and they are killed every game.

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 7, 2010 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs

ehh

I’m still fairly sure Okam gets cut instead, and/or one of Nading or Jamison (honestly, you’d rather go with three tackles instead of five DEs???)

by killtacular on Jul 7, 2010 3:57 AM CDT reply actions

Probably right

Historically, we’ve liked to carry five or six each of DTs and DEs. However, with quite a bit of versatility on the line, I think both Nading and Jamison are at risk. This will likely be where I make my first change, keeping Stenavich (or an as yet unsigned OT). But last year, we did only carry three OTs.

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 7, 2010 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions

ya

historically, you are probably right. But as you say, given Smith kicking down to DT and whatnot, I’d still think they cut one of Nading or Jamison. And I would also not at all be surprised at an unsigned OT over Stenavich.

by killtacular on Jul 8, 2010 1:35 AM CDT up reply actions

You're heavy on DEs.....wait.

There is something wrong with that statement. You can’t use heavy when talking about the Texans’ defense….

Anyways, one of them has to go. Guess who? BFD’s Twitter-crush?

I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?

by Rip Jersey on Jul 7, 2010 7:33 AM CDT via mobile reply actions

Turk doesnt hurt you

unless you give him a chance by snapping the ball over his head. Geez I hope Kris Brown doesnt win that battle. Call me crazy but if they are “about the same” give me Rackers so I just dont have to hear the name “Kris Brown” being called upon when we need a late FG. My Thursday Nights/Sunday afternoon-nights/Monday Nights cant handle it.

by theSpaceCityKid on Jul 7, 2010 8:17 AM CDT reply actions

Or Chris Brown, for that matter

Heh.

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 7, 2010 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions

Hm... I just don't see Holliday making the team...

… not when he can’t play WR while this team values versatility, and not over Kubiak’s buddy Shelley Smith.

Not to undermine your topic, but here’s a “counter-proposal” for a 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks (2) 8 Matt Schaub, 7 Dan Orlovsky
Runningbacks (4) 43 Ben Tate, 23 Arian Foster, 20 Steve Slaton, 45 Justin Griffith
Wide Receivers (5) 80 Andre Johnson, 83 Kevin Walter, 12 Jacoby Jones, 89 David Anderson, 19 Dorin Dickerson
Tight Ends (5) 81 Owen Daniels, 85 Joel Dreessen, 86 James Casey, 88 Garrett Graham, 87 Anthony Hill
Offensive Line (10) 73 Eric Winston, 76 Duane Brown, 78 Rashad Butler, 70 Cole Pemberton, 64 Kasey Studdard, 62 Antoine Caldwell, 74 Wade Smith, 71 Shelley Smith, 55 Chris Myers, 63 Chris White

Defensive Line (8) 90 Mario Williams, 94 Antonio Smith, 98 Connor Barwin, 93 Tim Bulman, 91 Amobi Okoye 95 Shaun Cody, 92 Earl Mitchell, 67 Malcolm Sheppard
Linebackers (6) 59 DeMeco Ryans, 56 Brian Cushing, 54 Zac Diles, 57 Kevin Bentley, 52 Xavier Adibi, 51 Darryl Sharpton
Defensive Backs (10) 31 Bernard Pollard, 26 Eugene Wilson, 33 Troy Nolan, 34 Dominique Barber, 25 Kareem Jackson, 29 Glover Quin, 41 Brice McCain, 28 Antwaun Molden, 35 Jacques Reeves, 22 Sherrick McManis

Kicker (1) 4 Neil Rackers
Punter (1) 1 Matt Turk
Kick Returner (1) 11 Andre’ Davis

That’s 53. Variables are the inclusion of Cole Pemberton, Anthony Hill (who might go straight to IR), and possibly Antwaun Molden.

Notable cuts include Frank Okam, Fred Bennett, DelJuan Robinson, Kris Brown, and Danny Clark. I think we’ll try to stick Holliday on the Practice Squad.

by krkenney on Jul 7, 2010 8:41 AM CDT reply actions

And I suppose...

… Justin Griffith over Vonta Leach is a gamble, as well.

by krkenney on Jul 7, 2010 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions

Remember

We get a roster exemption for Cushing for the first four games, so you get an extra roster spot.

Perfectly plausible scenario. And the more I think about it, the more I want Smith to make the team, though he seems to be a perfect practice squad candidate.

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 7, 2010 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions

I didn't know that, actually

… and I accidentally left off Mike Brisiel. I suppose he’d make it over Shelley Smith or an IRed Anthony Hill, and the reason I say that rather than Cole Pemberton is because I think Kubiak knows we’ve been playing with fire by only running with 3 active OTs.

by krkenney on Jul 7, 2010 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions

So as a tweak

Just assume Hill goes to IR, and add in Mike Brisiel and Danny Clark as the “extra” roster spot. I think Xavier Adibi wins the Cushing replacement battle, though. He’s got more ability than our three other options.

by krkenney on Jul 7, 2010 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions

ahh cool

I wasn’t sure if that was the case, that is good info

by killtacular on Jul 8, 2010 1:37 AM CDT up reply actions

Holliday Hunch

Holliday makes the team as PR/KR as long as he does not fumble in the preseason. Davis will be cut unless he takes one to the house in the preseason.

There is no way I take Griffith over Leach.

by OB1Bud2 on Jul 7, 2010 10:30 AM CDT reply actions

You sure about the Leach thing?

1) Leach was awful last year

2) Griffith has far more versatility, which makes him a prime candidate to jump Leach for a roster spot.

3) The team has obviously been trying to challenge Leach this offseason: Jack Corcoran, Isaiah Greenhouse, and now Justin Griffith.

I think Griffith is a much better receiving option, can actually run the ball (Kubiak made a statement a couple of years ago in which he equated handing the ball to Leach with handing the ball to Mike Brisiel), and has a better resume in terms of fitting a ZBS.

by krkenney on Jul 7, 2010 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions

We really haven't talked about Leach too much

But he was horrible last year. To be honest, I put more of the onus on the failure of Brown’s halfback pass on Leach, who completely whiffed on a key block.

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 7, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions

Was he really "Horrible" last season?

Or did he just have a few horrible plays that have stood out? Leach isn’t nor has he ever been a major rushing or recieving option, he’s the prototypical blocking FB… In ‘07 he had 25 receptions for 108 yards and 2 TDs, in ’08 12 REC for 103 yards and 0 TD and last season 20 REC for 155 yards and 1 TD… he’s the same recieving threat he’s ever been, which is to say he isn’t much of one except as the occasional escape valve.

As a blocking FB he gets put in much the same category as offensive lineman, he can do his job well nearly every time out, but the one time he screws the pooch in a game he’s labeled a goat. Every player in the league has bad plays now and then, when you play a position where the only notice you ever recieve is on bad plays it’s easy to go from being seen as one of the better FBs in the league one year to barely roster worthy the next by fans.

In reality, he’s still probably a top 10 FB in the NFL. If the Texans released him early there’d be a handfull of teams wanting to add him to their FB competition as he’d probably be had fairly cheap and is a pretty damn good blocker regardless of what you heard from last season.

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions

And

PFF is kind of annoying to me. Linemen, and to some extent Fullbacks as they’re many times just an extension of the offensive line, are largely rated on their team’s success.

According to PFF, Leach went from being the 19th best FB in 07 to the 3rd best in 08 to now the 27th best on 09….

Greg Jones went from being 5th in 07 to 1st in 08 then all the way down to 20th in 09 when the wheels came off the bus in Jacksonville.

PFF rated Mike Sellers as the 11th best FB in the same season he was one of the 2 FBs selected to play in the probowl… and in every other season has had him deep in the 20s…

In short, PFF is very hit or miss as far as “rating” players’ performances. It’s a cool site to look at when there’s nothing else going on football related, but PFF ratings are about as meaningless as any rating could be.

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions

My rebuttal

Chris Myers’ and Eric Winston are both favorably ranked. If it was the overall rushing game, they would be poorly ranked, as well. But they aren’t.

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 8, 2010 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions

I'm not sure that's wise

I was actually doing PFF a favor by suggesting they were at least that consistent…

Since they’re extremely unreliable with individual rankings and they’re also all over the place so much that you can’t even see trends as far as team production is concerned… what’s left for PFF to hang its hat on?

Kevin Mawae played on one of the best offensive lines in the league this past year and, even though he’s loathed here, is generally viewed as a pretty good starting center in the league… Yet according to PFF there’s only 3 centers in the NFL who had major playing time last season worse than Mawae. I find that highly unlikely.

Alan Faneca, despite helping pave the way for one of the better rushing attacks in the league and being selected to the ProBowl, was rated by PFF as the 67th best guard in the league last season. That doesn’t seem very accurate either….

I guess the only thing you can take away from PFF’s rating of blocking positions is that they have no idea how to rate blockers. As such, using PFF as sole “proof” of a blocking FBs “horrible” season probably isn’t the best way to go.

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree

Both Mawae and Faneca were horrible last year. Mawae and Faneca were 38 and 33, respectively. Faneca, especially, hasn’t been good in the past couple of years.

Faneca signed a 1-year deal for $2.5MM, and Faneca is still a free agent. That’s not a lot of demand.

As far as using PFF solely? Yes, I did watch the games last year. Leach was not good, certainly not as good as 2008.

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 8, 2010 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions

*Mawae is still a free agent

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 8, 2010 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions

You watched the games

But as a blocking fullback would you even notice him on the field unless he messed up in one way or another?

Matt Schaub is not without his own gaffs and screw ups, but since he plays a skill position you also see all of his “good” plays. With linemen and fullbacks, that’s not always the case. Because of this, it’s alot easier to grade a player at these positions unfairly one way or the other.

I’m not trying to invalidate your opinion that Leach had a down year, i’m just pointing out that he plays a position that’s extremely difficult for the casual fan to grade and that the PFF ratings that everyone likes to throw out are garbage. As such, I wouldn’t be as quick to assume that an undrafted rookie will beat out Leach as starting FB…

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions

To expand on that

Here are the linemen either selected or playing in the probowl this past season and how PFF rated them at their positons…

At Tackle…

David Diehl 63rd
Ryan Clady 16th
D’Brickashaw Feurguson 9th
Jake Long 2nd
Bryant McKinnie 33rd
Jason Peters 18th
Joe Thomas 1
Jon Stinchcomb 10th

At Guard…

Kris Dielman 59th
Alan Faneca 67th
Steve Hutchinson 37th
Logan Mankins 6th
Leonard Davis 14th
Chris Snee 3rd

At Center…

Jonathan Goodwin 14th
Andre Gurode 13th
Ryan Kalil 4th
Nick Mangold 1st
Kevin Mawae 31st
Shaun O’Hara 2nd
Jeff Saturday 10th

Out of 21 offensive linemen who were eventually named to the pro bowl, 11 of them didn’t even make PFF’s top 10 for their positions.

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions

Which begs the question

Why didn’t the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th or 8th best tackles in the game get selected to play in the league’s all star game? And why was David Diehl selected ahead of the other 55 tackles rated higher than him?

Why didn’t the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th best guards in the league get invited to play in the game ahead of the likes of the 14th, 37th, 59th, and 67th ranked guards?

And how come the 31st rated center recieved an invite ahead of the other 23 players who rated higher at his position?

Either the PFF ranking system is seriously flawed or the coaches and players, as well as the fans, who filled the pro bowl rosters are complete morons. Seeing as how fans account for just 33% of the vote for the rosters, either the game is played and coached by idiots who know nothing about the game they play, or PFF is not a reliable ranking system. I know which one I believe to be true.

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 10:01 PM CDT up reply actions

I'll tell you right now (don't mean to interupt)

Saturday and Mawae got in on reputation.

“Pro Bowl” linemen typically get the votes because A) rep and B) team W’s.

A better indicator is All-Pros as opposed to Pro Bowls.

"Lord, beer me strength."

by TexansDC on Jul 8, 2010 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions

If that's the case

Why did David Diehl get his 1st pro bowl selection last season when the Giants were mediocre at best and according to PFF he was the 63rd best tackle in the league?

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 10:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Ok, the starting All Pro team...

Tackle
Ryan Clady 16th
Joe Thomas 1st
Guard
Jahri Evans 1st
Steve Hutchinson 37th
Center
Nick Mangold 1st

So the all pro team has the 16th best guard as one of the top 2 tackles and the 37th best guard as one of hte top two guards… PFF doesn’t look much more accurate using the all-pro team in my opinion.

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 10:51 PM CDT up reply actions

And here's the PFF rankings for the entire All Pro 1st team.

QB 6th
RB 4th
FB 5th
WR 4th and 5th
TE 5th
T 1st and 16th
G 1st and 37th
C 1st
DE 1st and 6th
DT 3rd and 16th
ILB 1st and 2nd
OLB 2nd and 13th
CB 1st and 2nd
S 11th and 14th

K 25th
P 1st
KR 2nd

Considering at the most you have 2 players per position and just one for several, I figure in order to be in the same ballpark your all pros should be at least in the top 5 in positional rankings… Of those 26 All Pros, 9 were outside PFF’s top 5 and 6 more were outside the top 2 at their position… The fact that there’s players ranked 13th, 14th, 16th (twice), 25th, and 37th at their positions considered as one of the top two, if not #1, players at their positions speaks volumes to me.

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions

In fact

They were only dead on in agreement with the All Pro voting with 9 players out of the 26… that’s what, about 35%?

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions

More accurate with the 3 1sts there....as opposed to 2 in the Pro Bowl

Clady shouldn’t have gotten it over Jake Long last season. I don’t get how that happened. The voters mega-dropped the ball because Long is better.

Hutchinson…..rep + Ws formula.

"Lord, beer me strength."

by TexansDC on Jul 8, 2010 11:15 PM CDT up reply actions

I guess

3 out of 5 ain’t bad… If this were baseball, PFF would be a hall of fame hitter.

Also when you’re talking about the top 1 or two players at a position, you get the obvious choices such as Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Revis, ect… Usually the top of the boards in people’s rankings would look more or less the same, which is why it’s alarming when you see players considered elite by players, coaches, or media voters… but rated as a borderline starter/backup by PFF.

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 11:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Rating a guy 5th who is named allpro/probowl

Isn’t a big deal, but when you have a player who is voted in on both the probowl and allpro teams as the 37th best player at his position… well I don’t see how you can argue that it’s accurate.

Sure you can try to blame name recognition, but what about David Diehl who had 0 name recognition before this season, played for a non-playoff 8-8 team, ranked by PFF as the 63rd best player at his position, and still selected to play in the Probowl? Obviously someone saw something in him that PFF couldn’t calculate, and it couldn’t have been past accolades or his team’s success as he didn’t have much of either.

If PFF can miss that badly on one player it could have missed that badly on any of their other ratings. Because you have a 40-50 rating anomolie on one player for certain, you might as well throw out the entire database as there’s no telling which other players have been similarly overlooked, or in somecases maybe even ranked much higher than he should’ve been.

At that point you’re in the position of having to validate every rating PFF spits out with some other statistical or rating formula even if it’s just the one we all put together in our own heads individually, so what’s the point? As it is, EVERY one of PFFs ratings can be argued against simply because of the sometimes very obvious glitches in their ranking system. Because of that, using PFF as a reference to validate a claim is no more solid evidence than the “I don’t have any proof, I just know” argument.

by Bryan72076 on Jul 8, 2010 11:38 PM CDT up reply actions

For me, PFF and Football Outsiders (and whatever other super stat website) is just a jumping off point because there are some flaws….especially when it comes to blocking which can be effective without being dominant. That’s just me.

I think it fares well for PFF when their rankings match up well with the All Pro team. I’m attempting to get away from referencing a Pro Bowl player because it’s a bit of a joke. The Pro Bowl doesn’t equate season greatness.

There will be outliers in any statistical endeavor. Is it easy to chalk up a David Diehl as an outlier? Yeah, but these things happen. You’re correct in saying that there’s some flaws in the formula rating or that human error occurs if they don’t chart the play right…..

But it’s good to question the ratings because then you really tear into a player’s performance on a deeper level as opposed to a normal conversation. As an example: TE Vernon Davis put up monster numbers, but PFF rates him low…why? Lots of drops, lots of penalties, bad run blocking…….is his ranking too low? Yeah, so what happens? You really begin looking at VD and trying to figure out just how effective he is on the field.

"Lord, beer me strength."

by TexansDC on Jul 9, 2010 2:30 AM CDT up reply actions

Radio made the pro bowl

Nuf ced about using the pro bowl as guidance.

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 9, 2010 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions

Different opinions

I agree with what TDC said. I like to use PFF and FO because they aren’t me, they are largely unbiased opinions, trying to base their rankings on cold hard fact. Pro Bowl? All Pro? They aren’t. They’re largely based on emotion.

A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com

by bigfatdrunk on Jul 9, 2010 8:43 AM CDT up reply actions

But they're not

PFF isn’t based on cold hard facts… They’re based on an interpretation of cumulative statistics, and stats alone is unreliable in grading players so a ranking formula that uses nothing but collected statistics has no choice but to be unreliable.

You see the occassional David Diehl as an anomoly and something that “just happens” maybe, but for me it throws everything out the window. If I have to accept that they’re at bare minimum 30-40 spots off in rating one player, how do I trust any of their ratings? Sure the top players will probably be rated fairly high because usually they have good statistics and in cases of positions like offensive line they’ll play with the formula untill the top of the rankings is filled up with mostly the top players at the position…

But if it’s not near 100% accurate there’s no way of telling whether a 20th ranked offensive linemen that I know next to nothing about is actually the 20th best player at the position, or if he’s closer to top 10, or he even could be overated and is really more like a top 50 player…

The point is PFF isn’t accurate at all. They have David Garrard rated as a better QB last year than Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, and Donovan McNabb.

They have Justin Forsett, Jason Snelling, Reggie Bush, Kevin Smith, Ladell Betts, Darren Sproles, and Brian Leonard all ahead of Adrian Peterson.

Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd, Davone Bess, Kelley Washington, Devin Aromashodu, and Chris Chambers were all rated as much better recievers than Brandon Marshall

Owen Daniels was the 22nd rated TE, Chris Cooley was 28th, Heath Miller 31st, Visanthe Shiancoe 36th, Kellen Winslow 39th, Vernon Davis 57th, and Dustin Keller 59th… while Mercedes Lewis was 4th, Jim Kleinsasser 10th, Chris Baker 11th, and Ben Patrick 13th.

Every position they rank there’s players who are obvioulsy overated and others who’re drastically underated. If you’re using PFF, you might as well use a coin flip, or play Pin the Tail on the Donkey to get your rankings.

by Bryan72076 on Jul 9, 2010 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions

A FB receiving the ball?

Things aren’t going very well if the offense to resorting to throwing the ball to the FB. The reason Kubiak compared him to Brisiel is becasue they are both blockers. Nothing more.

by OB1Bud2 on Jul 7, 2010 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions