Community Projection: Mario Williams
by riversmccown on Aug 10, 2010 9:30 AM CDT
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PrintMario Williams spent most of last year playing through multiple injuries. All he did was notch nine sacks, blow up entire game plans, and stop running backs cold in their tracks with a much-improved game at stopping the run. Yes, he didn't notch the same amount of sacks as he did in his previous two years, but hopefully with time to heal his shoulder, his hip, and everything else that is wrong with him now, he'll return to the dominant form he showed last year. Or will his lack of intensity lead to him taking a nap on the field next year, as some commenters have implied he did in the Arizona game last year? That is up for you, the reader, to decide.
Will Mario Williams reach his stellar sack per game season again? Will he make quarterbacks openly weep on the field this year? Will he make Vince Young openly weep on the field this year? Will he get so fed up with Amobi Okoye that he throws him over the line and into the quarterback? Will I be able to make a non-snarky question up for this segment?
Simply predict Williams' regular season tackles, sacks, and the total number of his forced fumbles, interceptions, assists, and passes defensed.. Additionally, as a tiebreaker, select the defensive lineman you think will have the second-highest amount of tackles for the Texans at the end of the 2010 regular season. I'll list the weighted formula behind the jump so as to not bore you, but the person who is closest to these numbers will receive...something Texans-related as a prize, should they be around after the season to claim it. I can't tell you what the prize will be, both because it would ruin the surprise and because I'm just planning to make it something on sale and random at Amazon for the free shipping, but believe me when I tell you that it will change your life.
I'll try and run an average of what we come up with as well in a few days. If we were a baseball site, here's where I would include a player's CHONE and PECOTA and #6ORG systems, but to the best of my knowledge, there aren't really any companies doing that for free. Football Outsiders has a projection system, but they only predict individual defensive stats in their KUBIAK projections, which cost extra and so I'm assuming they don't want them leaked out. Last year, Williams combined FF/INT/ASSIST/PD number was 10, if you need a baseline on that.
Oh, and just to clear things up for me. Write "PROJECTION" as the subject of your actual projections. Thanks.
ETA: I'm going to stop accepting entries at 11:59 CT on Thursday, August 12th, so I don't have to refer back to this thread since I'm going to be putting everything in a spreadsheet. You have until then.
Real simple here, I'll just dock you a point off for every tackle, sack, and (FF/PD/ASST/INT) you are off. Because of the lower nature of these numbers, I'll add an additional 5 points if you hit the number exactly. Lowest number of points off takes home the...whatever the hell it'll be. First tiebreaker will be whoever guessed the right lineman, second will be whoever was docked less on tackles, third tiebreaker will be whoever has been in my kitchen most**.
**-since none of you have, it'll be a coinflip.
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Mario
Tackles – 56
Sacks – 14
Forced Fumbles – 4
Passes Defensed – 4
Assists – 12
INT – 0
Second – Antonio Smith – 45 Tackles – 5 Sacks
It takes a big man to walk away, but a bigger man to break his freaking jaw!
PROJECTION
Tackles – 45
Sacks – 10.5
Forced Fumbles – 3
Passes Defensed – 1
Assists – 11
INT – 0
TIEBREAKER: Antonio Smith, 50 tackles
Pro
Sacks under 12 is the only number that matters
by AllenOU on Aug 10, 2010 10:32 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Projection
Tackles – 50
Sacks – 15
FF – 4
Passes Defensed – 1
Assists – 12
INT- 0
Tiebreaker – Antonio Smith 43 Tackles
living the Texas dream
Projection
Tackles-55
Assists-10
Sacks-12.5
FF-2
Passes Defensed-3
INT-1
TB- Antonio Smith 45 Tackles
"If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you will be fired with enthusiasm." Vince Lombardi
Re:
All he did was notch nine sacks, blow up entire game plans, and stop running backs cold in their tracks with a much-improved game at stopping the run.
Right. Forget the fact that you only played two teams (JAX and TEN) in the top 10 in rushing DVOA. In those four games, your defense gave up 760 yards rushing, 7 rushing TDs, and went 1-3. I wouldn’t characterize that as “stopping running backs cold in their tracks.”
he also forgot to say
that after the first three weeks we had one of the top rushing defenses in the league
living the Texas dream
Against teams without any semblance of a run game.
Conveniently, you want to forget the first three games of the season, which just happened to be against the three best rushing attacks you faced all year. Your run defense didn’t magically get better. You just started playing teams that weren’t as effective at running the ball.
even with those three games
i think the Run D ranked 12 in the league, even if they didnt see the best rushing teams in the NFL to make the turn around was nothing short of impressive in my Opinion. Outside of Chris Johnson our team didnt allow a RB to go over 82 yards after week three and that was Steven Jackson.
living the Texas dream
I Want to Play!
Correct me if I’m wrong but:
week 6 @ CIN; C.Benson = 44 yds – wasn’t he leading the league in rushing at the time?
week 7 vs. SF; F. Gore = 32 yds – this is a no-name running back right?
week 8 @ BUF; M. Lynch = 43 yds – only a 2-time 1,000 yd rusher.
etc., etc., etc. but we only played teams with bad running backs/games, that’s right, I forget. And Mario sat the bench in these games didn’t he?
by Mikus318 on Aug 11, 2010 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
don't feed the trolls
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
Seriously?!?
F*ck. Do you have Roger Goodell’s email? Because, if that’s the case, I think the Titans were robbed of a playoff spot…
BTW, Just because I have nowhere else to put this
I’m running back the second Colts game right now and it’s Dallas Clark that they attribute the “you know where the Texans are gonna be,” line to. Not Wayne.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Aug 10, 2010 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Hmmm
Makes more sense since he abused us…..since Frank Bush couldn’t see that bumping him would have helped.
"Lord, beer me strength."
Except for that one time
Must have been some sort of statistical anomaly.
If the Treasury Secretary doesn't have to pay taxes, then why do I?
Well, we also beat them.
So we’d lose a win.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Aug 10, 2010 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
I see, Mario Williams now equals the whole defense.
We will have to agree to disagree on this hot-button issue.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Aug 10, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Didn't say that.
Just pointing out that the statement that he was “stopping running backs cold in their tracks” is not one based in fact, at least not when you play teams with a strong run game.
Well, once again you seem to be confusing one player with a team.
But lets play your game, troll.
Mario Williams had 4 stops in the Jets games that went for 1, 3, 1, and -1 yards, 3 stops in the first game against your team that went for -2, 1, and 0 yards, and 3 stops against MJD and crew in that game that went for 0, 0, and -2 yards.
But hey, the whole run defense was pretty bad in those first three games. You’re right, let me retract the part of what I said up there that was misleading where I said the Texans run defense as a whole dominated those 3 teams.
Oh wait, I didn’t say that. Because that would be stupid and inaccurate. Whereas saying Mario was damn good at it is, in fact, factual.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Aug 10, 2010 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
also
it’s all about lurking on other teams sites trying to find little errors… tight life. I mean the entire paragraph about Mario is just giving the guy some praise and not meant to be taken as the guys official biography.
It's hard bein whimpy
by WhimpyJimmy on Aug 10, 2010 12:25 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Give the guy a break
The only reason he hates Mario is because he’s a VY fanboy, and we know how that usually works out when attempting to “debate.”
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
by bigfatdrunk on Aug 10, 2010 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
They bust out the baby oil
and start rubbing themselves up?
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
by nolander on Aug 10, 2010 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
...and shooting tequila
"I like watching the old naked couple on public access...until the guy stands up, then it sux." ~ BFD
by LoneSpot on Aug 10, 2010 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
What about this one?
Link here. I suppose it’s possible that your D-Coordinator is just a complete moron. Even then, I find it extremely difficult to believe that there is NO ONE defending the B-gap on 1st and 10. Moreover, Super Mario is in a 7 technique and basically using a speed rush to get by his defender instead of maintaining some sort of gap responsibility. As a result, CJ tears off a big play.
Now, I don’t think this is all on Mario. But, he certainly shares in the blame. In situations like this, his desire to get to the quarterback can be to the detriment of the run defense.
Just one man’s opinion.
I could be wrong
But it looks like that gap responsibility belongs to Okoye (91) who gets turned inside [broken record] and Cushing (56) who also gets blocked out but still gets over to make the play and fails to wrap up. VY is dropping back so Mario is going after the QB. Which is his job. So, not sure you can put this one on Mario.
"I like watching the old naked couple on public access...until the guy stands up, then it sux." ~ BFD
It's on both of them.
But, it’s not as simple as you make it. What you’re talking about is precisely why teams call draw plays. It allows team to abuse overly aggressive Defensive Ends.
As a 3-Tech DT, Okoye should have been responible for the B Gap. Instead, he spun into the A Gap. Still, the hole between the tackle and guard should never be that wide. Some of the responsibility is on Mario.
Right. They called the right play at the right time.
But, Mario is lined up outside of the TE and would have had to come to inside the tackle. Only a stunt, which is obviously not called, would have put him into position. No way he gets inside quick enough to make a play on CJ while Okoye is on roller skates. And no way he thinks to get into that position when his team mate has that responsibility. Again, I place blame fully on Okoye and partially on Cushing for not stepping up and/or allowing the TE to screen him, then getting in position to make the play and failing to wrap.
"I like watching the old naked couple on public access...until the guy stands up, then it sux." ~ BFD
Again, it's on both of them.
But, if you pause the play right at the mesh point, you’ll notice that Mario has already completely committed to the quarterback. He’s not reading and reacting to the play. In doing so, he’s created an easier opportunity for CJ to make a big play. There’s no reason this play should have gone for 36 yards. That’s not on Mario. That’s just shitty tackling.
However, with CJ’s speed, those extra few yards in the hole can mean the difference between a 5 yard gain and a 10 yard gain. If Mario doesn’t over pursue, CJ can’t get as lateral and this play isn’t nearly as explosive.
but
in retrospect, you’re an idiot for getting this debate on a Texans blog… sooooo have fun trying to prove your stupid point.
I’m drunk
It's hard bein whimpy
by WhimpyJimmy on Aug 11, 2010 12:21 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
How do you know that it's on both of them?
Did you see the actual defense that our vanilla DC called? No? I didn’t think so.
So obviously all we have is this video as a reference. And from the looks of it, The B-Gap was Okoye’s responsibility since Mario’s role was to rush the passer.
You make shit so complicated man.
Well
I’m glad we can assert his play for an entire season based on one season. Well played SuperHorn.
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
by nolander on Aug 10, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ugh. Missing the point.
If Rivers is going to single out 10 plays, I think it’s fair to at least put one bad one front and center.
10 plays is far more statically relevant then 1
if he can find 10 plays and you can find only the 1 who’s argument does that support?
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
I see you have offered up one play versus my ten.
Then again, I never claimed he was perfect.
Also, I believe this “CJ tearing off a big play” is on “all 380 Texans that missed a tackle in this play,” not just one.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Aug 10, 2010 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh and
I think you’ll find plenty of people who believe the defensive coordinator is a moron around here.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Aug 10, 2010 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Certainly you understand it would be impossible for me to do so without game tape.
For example, while it’s easy for you to say, “look at these TFL’s. Mario is great!” I can’t look at a play by play and make similar conclusions without actually seeing the play.
I suppose we’ll just agree to disagree. I think Mario is an elite NFL pass rusher. But, I’m not yet sold on his ability to consistently defend the run. As a Texan fan, this overpursuit of the quarterback by Mario shouldn’t be news to you.
So after reading this entire chain of retardation...
Your original point was… that Mario isn’t a good run stopper because our first three games were bad.
When given evidence of Mario’s individual effort against the run that counter the specific instances you cited as your original evidence (the first three games) you dismiss it with a single play.
When presented with a counter interpretation of the single play that sustains your larger (now irrelevant and still lacking in support) point, you claim that Mario had the responsibility to cover for the failings of another player. You claim he did not do this because he “failed to read the play” dismissing with no evidence the point raised that he was committed to his role in the play and it was the fault of others.
Did I follow all of that correctly? I think I did.
I come across this a lot in debate and discussion. It’s changing the premise when your original point is no longer sustainable. Basically your original point is complete bunk so you pick individual fights with single pieces of evidence in the vain believe that this ultimately supports your “larger point.” This larger point has long since passed you by and you’re creating new arguments within the original debate in order to save face.
There’s no shame in admitting you’re wrong. You obviously don’t follow Mario as closely as us… perhaps your time would be better spent discussing VY with Richard Justice?
by DisplacedTexan on Aug 10, 2010 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
You didn't follow correctly.
The original point was that alleged claims that Mario was blowing up game plans and stopping running backs dead in their tracks seems to dismiss the fact that most of the teams you played had terrible run games. To that point, when you did play teams good run games (not only in the first three games but also in the later two games against the Jags and Titans), the team struggled.
I’ll grant you this. It is entirely possible that Bush could have (foolishly) called for Okoye, and Okoye alone, to have the sole B gap responsibility, and that it was Mario’s responsibility to get after the quarterback on 1st and 10 via an edge rush. I suppose that’s a possibility, however it would be a completely reckless one.
I come across this a lot in debate and discussion. It’s changing the premise when your original point is no longer sustainable.What premise changed? The point all along is that Mario’s good against shitty defenses, but against superior run attacks he has struggled. Rivers countered this argument by showing a handful of TFL’s. I thought that “evidence” was tenuous at best. I don’t have time to go through every play, but the youtube was meant to show that, at least on one play, his over aggressive play was exploited. The argument never changed. But, since you’re late to the game, and clearly have an opinion, let’s save ourselves the exercise of arguing over an argument and keep this simple.
I think that against good rushing teams, Mario struggled in 2009. Do you disagree? If so, why?
"good against shitty defences"?
if you’re gonna be this nit picky and out of place then we should be too. he didn’t play against defences… all I’m saying is that what are you doing here trying to prove some stupid point on another teams fan website??? of course we love Mario (better than VY) and of course we’re gonna praise him for his improved run stopping, buuuuut what are you trying to prove by arguing? go on your own site and talk about how good cky2k instead of wasting your time arguing with people who will never agree with you.
It's hard bein whimpy
by WhimpyJimmy on Aug 11, 2010 12:32 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Except not
Your original point was not that Mario is good against shitty defenses. That concept doesn’t even make sense.
Your original point was that Mario is not good against the run, because the Texans defense – as a whole – was terrible in the first three games. Honestly, go read your original post.
In those four games, your defense gave up 760 yards rushing, 7 rushing TDs, and went 1-3. I wouldn’t characterize that as "stopping running backs cold in their tracks."
So no, your original argument holds no water and your subsequent arguments narrow in focus – and still don’t really hold merit. That’s what I mean by changing the premise.
by DisplacedTexan on Aug 11, 2010 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Well, the thing is
Up until last year, you were right, Mario put himself in a lot of situations where he pursued the QB first and worried about the run later.
Whether it was “growing up” or his injury limiting his mobility to an extent, he was a LOT better at stopping the run last year. It’s on the tape, it’s on the stat sheets, and it’s in the notes. If you want to believe against that evidence, that’s fine and your right, but you’re certainly not going to win any points here by bringing up one highlight on Youtube (questioned by some, but lets say it counts as evidence for you) and saying he did it a lot based on that.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Aug 11, 2010 2:47 AM CDT up reply actions
tackles – 38
sacks – 14
forced fumbles – 1
interceptions – 0
assists – 5
passes defensed – 2
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
tie breaker
antonio smith
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
Projection
tackles 53
sacks 13.5
FF 5
int’s 0
assists 6
pass def 3
tie breaker Antonio Smith 42
Oh, and you guys don't need to be entirely specific on the FF/INT/ASS/PD part of it
You could just copy me right here:
PROJECTION
Tackles: 44
Sacks: 14.5
FF/INT/ASS/PD: 12
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
Oh right, a tiebreaker
gulp
Amobi Okoye
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Aug 10, 2010 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
PROJECTION
Tackles: 48
Sacks: 12
FF/INT/ASS/PD: 11
Tiebreaker: Antonio Smith
"Lord, beer me strength."
Projection
Tackles – 51
Sacks – 12.5
FF – 3
Passes Defensed – 0
Assists – 9
INT- 0
Tiebreaker – Amobi Okoye
Just to be a nit-picker....
rivers put in Amobi 6 minutes earlier.
Just my $.02
Even duct tape can't fix stupid
PROJECTION
Tackles – 51
Sacks -8.5
FF/INT/ASS/PD: 17
Tiebreaker – Antonio Smith (I’m hoping that we get Schoebel and we can move Smith to a DT spot)
PROJECTION
Tackles – 54
Sacks – 14.5
Forced Fumbles – 3
Passes Defensed – 2
Assists – 11
INT – 1
TB – SCHOEBEL BIOTCH
meaningful football games in '08...MAKE THAT 09, okay 10, definitely 10..i am an excellent driver
FORGOT TO ADD PROJECTION
SHOEBEL BIOTCH = 48 TACKLES
meaningful football games in '08...MAKE THAT 09, okay 10, definitely 10..i am an excellent driver
Projection
Tackles – 62
Sacks – 22.5
FF/PD/ASS/INT- 16
TB – Antonio Smith 42 Tackles
Bonus : Mario ragdolls Radio atleast once, making “the boy who just wins” cry. Bob McNair, like any shrewd businessman, sells Radio’s tears to Little Dicky Justice, Age 12, and other VY fanboys, all on E-bay. Then McNair goes on to build the Texans a brand spanking new stadium with that money!
Assmass alone does not a NT make.
by kaizer on Aug 10, 2010 2:42 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
PROJECTION
Tackles: 44
Sacks: 8
FF: 3
Assists: 6
PD: 2
Int: 0
TB: Amobi Okoye 39 Tackles 27solo 12assists
I should put 9000 sacks to inflate the average.
But im not going to.
13 sacks
59 Tackles
2 Forced Fumbles
9 Assisted Tackles
1 Pass Defended
0 Interceptions
2 Fumble Recoveries
1 Injured QB
Projection
Tackles: 43
Sacks: 10
FF: 3
Ints: 0
Assists: 8
Pass Def: 2
TB: Antonio Smith: 45 Tackles
Projection
Tackles – 49
Sacks -6.5 (I’m going low with this, mainly because I think that we will have a lot more LBs in the backfield on blitzes, just to shake it up)
FF/INT/ASS/PD: 25 (I’m going high on assists)
TB: Okoye, hopefully he can help get some pressure in the middle of the line. Oh what a fantasy.
"Do you ever feel more like you do now then when you got there?"
Projection
Tackles – 44
Sacks – 13
FF – 2
Passes Defensed – 2
Assists – 10
Int- 0
Tiebreaker – Antonio Smith
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
Projection
Tackles – 49
Sacks – 15
FF/INT/PD/ASS – 13
Tiebreaker – Antonio Smith 44
"Bite off more than you can chew. Then chew it."
Projection
Tackles: 50
Sacks: 10.5
FF: 4
Assists: 10
PD: 2
Int: 1
TB: Amobi: 39 tackles
Just your average, run of the mill hardcore casual Texans fan.
PROJECTION
Tackles: 54
Sacks: 14
FF/INT/ASS/PD: 14
Tiebreaker: EMFM
Yeah, that’s right. I’m taking two rookies on tie breakers.
I am Sancho
by HoustonTransplant on Aug 10, 2010 11:41 PM CDT reply actions
I like it.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Aug 11, 2010 2:52 AM CDT up reply actions
tackles: 46
sacks: 11
pd: 3
ff: 1
int: 0
tie breaker: Antonio
It's hard bein whimpy
by WhimpyJimmy on Aug 11, 2010 12:35 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
sorry Antonio 37 tackles
It's hard bein whimpy
by WhimpyJimmy on Aug 11, 2010 12:36 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
PROJECTION
T – 58
S – 13
FF/INT/AST/PD – 11
TIE – SMITH 44
FATALITIES – 1 (Vince Young) FINISH HIM!!!
by TexanTerp on Aug 11, 2010 3:52 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Projection
T-61
S-15
FF/int/as/pd 18
TIEBREAK- Smith
QBs taken out of game- VY, Tony Homo
"Your mother is a hamster and your father smells of elderberries! Now Go away or I shall taunt you a second time!"
Go Texans!
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