Community Projection: Andre Johnson
by riversmccown on Aug 3, 2010 9:30 AM CDT
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PrintAndre Johnson, a wide receiver for the ages, added on to his legacy last season by leading the NFL in receiving yards for the second straight year, something no one had done since Jerry Rice. After a rough start on Revis Island, Johnson turned it on the rest of the year and dominated his defenders. Particularly if they were wearing Arizona Cardinals jerseys. It could have been a better year, which feels weird to say, if Johnson had just held on to more balls. His catch percentage dropped from a decent 67% in 2008 to a hard-to-look-at-and-figure-out-how-he-won-the-receiving-yards-crown of 59%. Will this rebound, or has Andre Johnson become a deep threat first and foremost? This is what we ask you, the reader, to decide.
Will Andre Johnson lead the league in receiving yards again? Will age hit him like a sack of bricks as Jakespeare runs all over defense? Will Johnson catch the crazy wide receiver disease that is so prevalent in the NFL today and moon someone after he scores a touchdown? Will touching Andre Johnson actually send someone to the moon this year? If it did, would Andre be benevolent and bring him back, or would he let the poor defensive back suffer?
Your mission, if you choose to accept it, is to predict the regular season statistical line of Andre Johnson: receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and catch rate percentage. As a tiebreaker, you'll list which Texans receiver will finish with the second-most receptions on the team in 2010. Could be Jacoby Jones, could be Kevin Walter, could be Owen Daniels, could even be Andre Johnson. Your choice. I'll list the weighted formula behind the jump so as to not bore you, but the person who is closest to these numbers will receive...something Texans-related as a prize, should they be around after the season to claim it. I can't tell you what the prize will be, both because it would ruin the surprise and because I'm just planning to make it something on sale and random at Amazon for the free shipping, but believe me when I tell you that it will change your life.
I'll try and run an average of what we come up with as well in a few days. If we were a baseball site, here's where I would include a player's CHONE and PECOTA and BARTMAN systems, but to the best of my knowledge, there aren't really any companies doing that for free. Football Outsiders has a projection system, and they've predicted Andre Johnson's catch rate as 60% next year. So perhaps that will be a helpful barometer of things for you.
Oh, and just to clear things up for me. Write "PROJECTION" as the subject of your actual projections. Thanks.
I'm going to stop accepting entries at 11:59 PM CT on Thursday, August 5th, so I don't have to refer back to this thread since I'm going to be putting everything in a spreadsheet. You have until then.
Real simple here, I'll just dock you a point off for every touchdown and percentage point of catch rate you are off, and then an additional point will be docked for every 25 yards receiving you are off. Lowest number of points off takes home the...whatever the hell it'll be. First tiebreaker will be the correct wide receiver, second tiebreaker will be whoever was docked less on rushing yards, third tiebreaker will be whoever I like most.**
**-since I'm indifferent to you all, it'll be a coinflip.
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PROJECTION
I’ll tack on catch percentage when I figure out what it is, exactly.
1375 yards
14 TDs
Tiebreaker: Kevin Walter
Percentage of balls intended for the receiver that were caught.
FO has them for every receiver in the league here, and you can go back and look at other years if you want.
Most receivers fall between 55% as a low and 75% as a high. Darrius Heyward-Bey, of course, makes his own rules.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Aug 3, 2010 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Projection
1600 yards
11 Touchdowns
62% Catch Percentage
Tiebreaker:THOR!!! hahahaha just kidding. Actually, it’ll be Owen Daniels (but he won’t get paid next year)
"Bite off more than you can chew. Then chew it."
Projection
1560 yards
13 TD’s
69% catch rate(which sounds like some kind of warning scale for hookers)
Tiebraker: Walter
extra credit: 18 plays that were so ungodly amazing I will J in my P’s.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
PROJECTION
1283 yards
12 TDs
70% catch percentage
Jakespeare for tiebreaker
Assmass alone does not a NT make.
PROJECTION
1380 yds
9 TDs
55% catch rate (I predict Schaub will throw his way about 190 times and AJ will have 105 catches)
Tiebreaker: Jacoby Jones(I’m hoping that he becomes more than just a deep threat and gets a lot more outs or screens called his way so that he can show-case some of that open-field speed)
1,560 yards which gives him an unprecedented 3 straight season of 1,500 yards and 3 straight season of leading the league in yards.
11 TDs which would be a career high
72% catch percentage
Tiebreaker: Most receptions? If it is catches then I’ll say….OD.
"Lord, beer me strength."
PROJECTION
1561 Yds / 12 TDs / 73%
Tibreaker – DA (out on a limb!)
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
That is a short limb
Earl Campbell is the perfect combination of assmass and weightspeed. - Papabear
by Schlauton on Aug 3, 2010 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Oh I get it...both of you, LOL!
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
PROJECTION
1433 yards
8 touchdowns
66%
Tiebreaker: Walter
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
PROJECTION
1,150,279 YARDS
321 TD’s
110%
Tiebreaker: Walter
hCG levels within acceptable range.
by LoneSpot on Aug 3, 2010 1:51 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
alot of walters and jacoby
picks as tiebreakers. ya’ll thinking OD doesnt recover right? he would of had the second most catches last year.
the hope is that he's back by week 1
Even if he meets that schedule, he’s not likely to be able to jump right in at the same level he was pre-injury. That combined with the fact that there’s other TE’s on the roster who should take a few balls away from him leads me to think that OD is not likely to match his previous output.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
I wouldn't be surprised if OD is on the PUP for the first 6 games.
The mysterious “setback” that Mortensen reported doesn’t bode well, and given the number of options we have behind Daniels, the team isn’t going to rush him back if they don’t have to.
To me the setback wasn't that big of a deal
I may have been wrong, but I always thought the hope was that he would be back by week one, and that he was ahead of schedule. Setbacks are a part of the rehab process…which is why I don’t know why the call them set backs. Everything I have heard is that he is still on track for that week one time frame.I think everyone is just very sensitive when it comes to injuries this time of year. Mario getting an injection for swelling wouldn’t even cause a ripple mid-season…yet it’s been one the big story lines lately.
You are right about rushing him back though. There’s no need.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
PROJECTION
1,482 yards
9 TDs
67% CR
Tiebraker: Dreesen
Daryl Morey's number one fanboy
A bit of a downer year...in terms of yardage.
PROJECTION
1,267
10 TD
68%
Tiebreaker: Kevin Walter
OD is coming back from an injury, and I don’t trust Jacoby yet.
Earl Campbell is the perfect combination of assmass and weightspeed. - Papabear
Projections
1246 yds
9 tds
catch rate: 62%
Tiebraker: Bonecrusher: Just because he can!!!! Barks
Feeling the five stages of grief since 2002.
by NoSafetiesNeeded on Aug 3, 2010 5:12 PM CDT reply actions
Projection
1550 Yards receiving (which I could be wrong but isn’t that 3 years in a row with 1500 yards?)
12 TDs
Catch Rate 67%
Tiebreaker: Owen Daniels.. I think he only played 8 games last year and was either 2nd or 3rd in receiving. Again I could be wrong. But I like living on the edge.
"Do you ever feel more like you do now then when you got there?"
think you're right, and I think it might have never been done before...
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
Good think to look forward to. He could get some serious recognition.
And make some Houston fans as cheerful as a little school girl
"Do you ever feel more like you do now then when you got there?"
Considering only AJ and Starvin' Marvin are the only guys to do it twice.
I think it’s safe to say AJ would be the only one to do it thrice.
Yup…
He and Jerry Rice are the only 2 to lead the league in consecutive years
He and Marvin are the only 2 to 1,500 in consecutive years……
Next year? Andre is the only one to do both thrice. Beledat.
"Lord, beer me strength."
by TexansDC on Aug 3, 2010 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Do I smell some DWTS cookin' next off-season?
AJ…show us your moves!
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
I would not mind that...but AFTER he retires.
Earl Campbell is the perfect combination of assmass and weightspeed. - Papabear
I would mind that
because that means the show will still be on the air in 20 years when AJ is finally tired of winning super bowls.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
Projection
1498 Yards
14 TDs
71% catch rate
Tiebreaker: G²
How do you like dem apples
I am Sancho
by HoustonTransplant on Aug 4, 2010 12:47 AM CDT reply actions
Welcome, Ryan81
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
by Tim on Aug 4, 2010 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Projection
1613 yds
15 td’s
64% catch rate
tie breaker: Owen Daniels
Oh yeah, he’s gonna earn that raise. (Not that he hasn’t but with those numbers who’s gonna argue he deserves more)
Projection
Long time listener.. First time caller.. Except the internet equivalent of that,,,
1504 yds
11 TD’s
68% Catch Rate
TieBraker: Jakespeare
Welcome, D-Higs
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
by Tim on Aug 4, 2010 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions
Projection
1175 yds
15 TD’s
71%
Tiebreaker….little hands man( as he’s known around my house, cuz his hands are smaller than my daughters)
Jacoby Jones
GO TEXANS!!!!
Our time will come...
PROJECTION
1640 YARDS
13 TDS
70%
Tiebreaker – Owen Daniels – he’s got the bees knees.
meaningful football games in '08...MAKE THAT 09, okay 10, definitely 10..i am an excellent driver
Welcome do!
I suppose if all of the stars, moons and planets align it could be possible, but what are the chances of that?
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