Deep Steel Blueprint: "Beat The Raiders, Not Yourselves" Edition
by TexansDC on Sep 29, 2010 7:00 AM CDT
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Writer's note: I always thought "What I'd Like To See" was a crappy title, so I changed it. While the title changes, this is still the weekly article where I'll break down what I perceive to be the most important match-up, scheme, or angle that could define the weekly game.
This week, I am having a problem as I look at a match-up or area of the game which will be critical to a Houston Texans win. I don't mean to sound like an entitled fan of a dynasty team, but I believe it's fair to say that the Texans have more talent than the Oakland Raiders and should win on Sunday. Yet, I have a nagging voice in the back of my head.
That nagging voice reminds me of recent events. In 2009, it was the game in St. Louis. I'm reminded of the 2008 visit to Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. There are struggles against Cleveland that the nagging voice brings up as well. All of these games are examples of the Texans' unparalleled ability to beat themselves and play down to their opponent's level. I don't need to go into those games in detail because I know they're in the back of any good Houston fan's mind.
I hate thinking of the game in this way because I don't want to insult the Oakland Raiders. Honestly, their fans get enough of that elsewhere. Is it easy and warranted? Well, when Crazy Al Davis is focused on putting together the best track team the world has even seen, then yeah. See? I wasn't even trying to make fun of them, and I still ended up doing so. Soon, maybe, the Raiders won't be the butt of many jokes. Starting in this past off-season, Oakland has shown that they want to improve. So far, that effort has seen mixed results on the field.
The Raiders are not as bad as their reputation would have you believe. A chip-shot field goal away from 2-1, the Raiders actually rank in the top-five in multiple statistical categories. They are the fourth-best rushing offense in the NFL (147.3 yards per game), have the third-best overall defense (260.7 YPG), and sit second in total pass defense (127.7 YPG).
Of course, the flip side to those statistics has me looking at a schedule that includes Tennessee, St. Louis, and Arizona - three teams that aren't passing juggernauts (although opposing QBs have a rating of 94.2 against them despite the Raiders having the #2 pass defense) and two of those teams are from the terrible NFC West have losing records.
In all honesty, this is a puzzling match-up because the numbers show a very respectable team, but the schedule makes me doubt what I see statistically. The real Oakland Raiders will likely be revealed in their next two games - next week against San Diego and this week against the good guys in deep steel blue. Unfortunately for this post, I can't write it in two weeks and send it back to myself today. I have to call the match-up as I see it now.
As much as I respect our silver-and-black foes, as I said before, the Texans have more talent. This is where this week's critical match-up comes into play.
This week's biggest area of intrigue is the Texans versus themselves. This is especially true after the Week Three collapse where the Texans stole the shotgun from Dallas and blasted their own feet to oblivion.
Aside from the special teams, where Oakland employs the mutant legs of Sebastian Janikowski and Shane Lechler, the Texans have the talent and depth advantage - even if WR Andre Johnson's ankle prevents him from playing.
The Texans can run the NFL's leading rusher, Arian Foster, at the 23rd ranked run defense, while their own second-ranked run defense goes head-to-head with Oakland's lone consistent form of offense - the fourth-ranked rushing attack I mentioned earlier. I'll italicize this for emphasis, but don't be shocked if this is a low scoring, run-heavy game on Sunday.
A run-heavy game would be especially likely if the Texans don't test the true mettle of the Raiders' pass defense, and the Raiders don't see if Houston can make QB Bruce Gradkowski look like an All-Pro. Even if that were to happen, the Raiders' pass protection has allowed the third-most sacks in the NFL, which means the Houston pass rush may show up in Oakland...if they want to.
The last phrase describes this week's key match-up: "If they want to." Will the Texans get up for this game? Will there be a hangover effect from such a bad loss? Will they care? Will they be so embarrassed by last Sunday's game that they use Oakland to send a message? Or will they struggle (lose?) on the road against an opponent they perceive as inferior? Will the Texans look lackadaisical or will they come out looking to take a week of frustration out on the Raiders?
How do you measure getting up for a game? How do you plan to do that? Well, looking at last season's St. Louis game, you look for mistakes - drive-killing penalties, an inability to convert third downs, and an inability to take control early as a good team should do. Namely, the Texans need to point the gun up towards Oakland and execute with confidence as opposed to shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly. They need to look sharp, as they have done at times in 2010.
Do I think the Texans win? Yes. I say that with 90-95% confidence. However, winning is not enough this week. Houston needs to handle the Raiders as division-rival Tennessee did. After last week's disaster, the Texans need to restore their confidence, look like a high-quality team again, and prove that Week Three was a fluke.
If the players want to prove last week was a fluke, then the Texans must commit fewer than five penalties, convert 45+% of their 3rd downs, and set the tone of each half with early touchdowns. I would even hope they challenge the Oakland secondary since, despite the illusion of second-fewest yards allowed, Vince "I'm Not A Freakin' Pocket Passer" Young, Sam "I'm A Freakin' Rookie" Bradford, and Derek "How Am I Freakin' Starting" Anderson have a combined 94.8 QB Rating against them. In a sense, the blueprint against the Raiders doesn't need to be overly complicated.
If the Texans want to beat the Raiders, they need to do the following: Show some heart. Play with some intensity. Finish plays. Avoid self-inflicted mistakes. Execute. If the Texans can do all of that then a win, with some breathing room, is more than achievable.
What are your concerns with this week's game in Oakland? What do you want to see the Texans do or avoid?
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I know they cant catch
but the Raiders have WRs with serious speed… our secondarys main weakness. All it takes is a few lucky catches if they can continuously get behind our DBs to change the face of the game. So i plan to see another “cover no-one” “keep everything in front of you” scheme Also, their Dline can shake some things up so if we start off by establishing ourselves with the run and then capitalize off of play action I think we will be fine offensively. GO TEXANS
by theSpaceCityKid on Sep 29, 2010 8:54 AM CDT reply actions
This is exactly what I'm afraid of
Also it’s what my obnoxious closet Raider fan is screaming in my head
I would challenge you to a battle of wits, but you appear to be unarmed.
by The Night Owl on Sep 29, 2010 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the Raiders defense is legit
I have nothing to base that on, so it’s all just speculation, but I don’t think we will be able to move the ball at will. They should be decent running the ball as well. I wasn’t sold on our run defense before the cowboys game. Seeing our Dt’s moved seven yards off the ball did nothing to change that.
I still think we win, and have the better team. I just don’t think that his game is going to be the easy win some people I have talked to think it will.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
The pass defense may be legit
but their run defense has given up tons of yards. I think Arian Foster could top 120 easy if the coaches don’t forget about him.
"Lord, beer me strength."
we need to run run run run ruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuun
more
"Progress isn't made by early risers. It's made by lazy men trying to find easier ways to do something." -Robert Heinlein
Im just worried about
stalling during the first offensive drive.
Because if the raiders are ahead, I can see the texans giving up on the running game. That’s when all hell will break loose.
"Eff you mothereffer!"
-Bernard Pollard-
Completely Agree, TDC
This one’s going to be ugly.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
For what it's worth
Bodog has the Texans at -3. That’s not a point spread that gives one confidence.
I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.
www.battleredblog.com
by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 29, 2010 9:33 AM CDT reply actions
Spreads are more about what will get the most people betting evenly on both teams
You can get a little insight from them, but they are not really trying to predict the outcome. They are trying to come up with a number that gets equal amount of money on each team. All the -3 tells me is that they are trying to drum up bets on the Texans after the beating they took last week.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
It's not that the book thinks that the Texans will win by three.
It’s that the betting public thinks that. My point is that the betting public seems to think this is going to be a lot closer than some of us do.
I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.
www.battleredblog.com
by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 29, 2010 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Most of the betting public knew very little about the Texans until last week...
If they pushed the line much higher than that the casual fan who thinks he’s a football guru would be hesitant to put money on the Texans because the only game he’s seen them play in the last couple of years might have been that steaming pile of panda crap we played last weekend.
I’ve been told that playing at home is generally worth about 3 points. So if this was at Reliant the line would likely be in the 6 range.
I actually think this game could be close too, even though I think we win. I’ve got plenty of worries heading into this game. The point spread is just not one of them….mainly because I quit betting on sports when Chris Weber and that stupid time out cost me my lunch money for the rest of the school year. Fuck you, Chris Weber. Fuck you.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
/remembers the Chris Weber-gate incident
It still makes me laugh because:
1. You were/are super pissed about it
2. I decided at the last minute not to bet on the game
If the Treasury Secretary doesn't have to pay taxes, then why do I?
Seriously I can't look at the guy without wanting to punch him
I was able to convince myself to root for Scotie Pippen, so you know my Rockets love runs deep…if Weber would have played for the Rockets he would the first Rocket I ever truly hated.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
One Question does oakland run the 3-4?
If they do they got some good linebackers to work with it. i really think we should win this game unless jonnie lee higgins is just returning all the kickoffs back after we score.
Dumb? The Raiders?
That’s unpossible.
I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.
www.battleredblog.com
by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 29, 2010 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
actually they can run both
and sometimes they’ll plug Seymour in at DT, which might have Myers shitting bricks
I would challenge you to a battle of wits, but you appear to be unarmed.
by The Night Owl on Sep 29, 2010 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Some Raider insight as I scout out the opposition
Seymour has played exclusively at DT this year. He is currently nursing a hammy. If the Raiders are healthy, they are loaded at DT. They haven’t run any 3-4 snaps. They don’t have the NT for a true 3-4.
My profile pic is a Todd Marinovich painting.
by Rich Langford on Sep 29, 2010 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't beat yourselves
So far this season the Texans have shown they can beat any team in the NFL (Colts Week 1), they are never out of any game (Redskins, Week 2) and they are their biggest enemy (Cowboys, Week 3). If the Texans want to prove themselves to be a real power in the NFL, they need to go into this game and be dominant in all phases of the game. A sloppy win will be good for this week but will forecast bad outcomes in the future. In the NFL, dominant teams obliterate weak teams (Steelers vs. Tampa Bay), Week 3). The Texans have an excellent opportunity in the next three weeks (at Raiders, vs. Giants, vs. Chiefs) to prove that they are a dominant team.
I want to see the Texans play clean, smart, dominant football to beat an up and coming team with big holes in their house on the west coast. Those two factors can contribute to surprise losses but the time for excuses for the Texans is over.
Thoughts from a Raiders Fan
The most interesting strength on strength matchup to me is Asomugha v. Andre Johnson. In past years, the Raiders have usually just stuck Nnamdi on one side of the field, and teams have just avoided him by putting their best receivers on the other side of the field, but this year they have said they will have him shadow the top receiver most of the game, and last week they were true to their word against the Cardinals and had him chasing Fitzgerald wherever he went. We do also have a pretty good pass rush, Kamerion Wimbley in particular has been a pleasantly surprising addition in that department. I would expect y’all to follow a gameplan similar to what you used against the Colts and try and run the ball more, because just dropping back and letting our guys rush Shaub, especially with Brown being suspended, and thrown into that secondary could be problematic. The run defense isn’t as bad as it looks on paper either, it bottled up Chris Johnson for most of our game against the Titans and then CJ broke a big run to make the stats look the way they do, but giving up big runs like that has been a troubling trend for the defense all season and pre-season, so that is definitely what I would target if I were the Texans.
On the other side of the ball, it’s gonna be all about if Houston can stop McFadden. He’s finally proving himself to be a legit runner. Bush played a little bit against the Cards last week, but was limited to 3 carries, still had a cast on, but this week, he’s losing the cast and is supposed to be full go, so it will be the first time this season our running game has had all it’s pieces together. Passing game is inconsistent, to be nice about it. Grads will make some big plays, and DHB is actually contributing this year and obviously is a home run threat with his speed, but Grads will also make some mistakes and DHB is obviously prone to drops. Either way, if you can shut down the run game, the Raiders are going to be hard pressed to string together drives, that O-Line simply will not stand up to any kind of pass rush at all.
GO SPURS GO!
Our other WR's Should be able to make plays if Asomugha stick to Dre
Having Asomugha on AJ might be good for us this week depending on how banged up AJ’s ankle is. Between Kevin Walter, the volatile Jacoby Jones, and even David Anderson we have a very deep WR corps.
Butler did a decent job against Ware in Browns absence. Ware’s three sacks were all the result of coverage or Schaub not getting rid of the ball. Brown’s loss probably hurts more in the run game right now than anything.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
Good stuff willy D
Hope all sides step up this game even special teams, we need a run back for TD on kickoff or punts. can somebody tell me why we still have steve returning kickoffs?
Do we have anyone else better?
I know we’re trying to keep Jacoby Jones fresh on offense, so he’s not an option, & Holliday’s on IR, so is there really a better option on this roster? Only if Kubiak wants to give McCain a shot at KRs, which he did at Utah
I would challenge you to a battle of wits, but you appear to be unarmed.
by The Night Owl on Sep 29, 2010 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions
McCain's got KR experience and good speed....
and he’s not returning kicks? C’mon, Gary!
"Lord, beer me strength."
David Anderson has experience returning punts and kick-offs
DA might not have elite speed, but I don’t really want to watch Steve Slaton run up the back of his blockers anymore. I think our coverage/return teams have been poor in general, but Slaton despite a couple of nice returns hasn’t done a good job.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
But, but, but,
why would they lie about something so important!
"Eff you mothereffer!"
-Bernard Pollard-
i would like to think...
we are at a point in our history where we win games like this.
and by a large margin.
"If i wasn't a gentleman, i'd punch you square in the mouth!!!!" - Arthur Spooner
http://www.twitter.com/chrisdogan
Thank you, TexansDC
This is the blog from which I took quotes and posted them to the TexansChick blog (owned by Stephanie Stradley).
"My idea of an agreeable person is a person who agrees with me." -- Benjamin Disraeli
The Eugen Wilson NOT playing factor
is way in our favor
"I want you guys to pair up in groups of three and then line up in a circle." - Bill Peterson former Oilers Coach
Hows abouts
we run some plays for our damn tight ends.. we’ve had 8 catches from our tight ends all year, which is probably around what OD was averaging last year per game before he got hurt. Dreessen proved last year that he was worthy to get some action, and double proved it against the skins with that huge catch in overtime. Time to open the playbook and utilize the weapons that we all know we have
Raiders
I have to laugh at the way you portray Houston, as if they have been and are some kind of World Beaters. Dallas that is not a very good team made the Texans look bad, very bad. The secondary could not cover my Grandma.
With the 31st ranked D in the NFL and the 26th ranked D in points allowed the Raiders will do very well against this D. Your O cannot protect your QB and and the Raiders D should have him running for his life much of the game. Last watch out for that track team of WR the Raiders have as you will have trouble covering them.
This game should not be close in Oakland Raiders 31 Texans 13. Last lets remember that Crazy Al has had his Raiders in an NFL Record (14) AFC Championship Games and (5) Super Bowls winning (3). Add in another (5) Super Bowls the Raiders were an Immaculate Reception or Liddell Fumble away from playing in and you can see that trying to even bring the Texans up in the same conversation as the Raiders is way off base.
After all when talking about the Great Man o War you do not bring up some cheap 5,000 dollar claimer running at some Bush Track in West TX. You can talk it all you want, you have to earn it unless you want to continue to come off as Paris Hilton, I know she is a STAR LOL.
senile, trolling, mentally handicapped, demented
or all of the above? Because the Raiders have done so much this year and last year and the several before?
The ironing is delicious.
"Progress isn't made by early risers. It's made by lazy men trying to find easier ways to do something." -Robert Heinlein
http://www.accessorizeyourvehicle.com/
by nolander on Sep 30, 2010 12:34 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
This guy is not represteative of S.B.Pride, I've never seen him on there
Good luck to you guy’s, I’t should be a great game!
"May the wind be at our back, here comes the Silver and Black "
Thanks
It’s pretty standard – we get fans from other teams who log on to SBNation just to trol BRB. Mostly it’s Tits fans, but there are others. You can tell them by their lack of punctuation.
I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.
www.battleredblog.com
by tehGrindCrusher on Oct 1, 2010 4:41 AM CDT up reply actions
And once again...
trolls are proven wrong.
0 sacks by Oakland.
Raiders didn’t dominate.
Your past is irrelevant….as is the last paragraph.
"Lord, beer me strength."
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