2010 Playoff Prediction
by NoSafetiesNeeded on Sep 8, 2010 2:09 AM CDT
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PrintHello everybody. For those of you who don't know me (which I assume is everyone) I am a huge fan and regular visitor on this site. I've endured the gut wrenching, bleach drinking, 5 stages of denial franchise that is our Houston Texans.
This is my first post and I have no idea what kind of reaction I will get but I hope that it isn't anything negative. I just realized that the first game of the season is this thursday and since all of the experts (morons at the four letter network) have made their predictions, I figured that I should give it a shot. My predictions and how I came to them after the jump.
So I figured that the best way to predict the playoff picks for this year would be to come up with a crazy formula that few people, if any, could figure out and proclaim myself a prophet and genius. However, since my math skills are not the greatest I came up with a simple strategy.
Here it is: I added all of the totals from 2002 until last season and divided those by 8. I chose 2002 because that was when the new realignment took place and the 8 came from the amount of years that the system has been in place.
Here is an example: From 2002 until 2009 the New England Patriots have an overall record of 96-32. When you divide that by 8 you get 12-4 which is what I predict their record will be. Obviously this isn't the greatest formula but I felt that it would be the best way to make a prediction without using any bias whatsoever.
Because some of the teams ended up in an odd number for example: 9-6 = 15, I used history to award that last victory or loss based on division titles. If a team has won more titles than the rest of their division, they got a victory added to their total. If they tied or had less titles I added a loss in their record. Now that I've explained the complicated math here is the playoff picture for the AFC and NFC based on every team's history.
AFC East
New England Patriots 12-4
AFC West
San Diego Chargers 10-6
AFC South
Peightann Nemming's forehead 13-3
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 11- 5
Wild Cards
Denver Broncos 9 - 7
Radio's Short Bus 8 - 8
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 11 - 5
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks 9 - 7
NFC South
Carolina Panthers 8 -8
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 10 - 6
Wild Cards
Southern Oklahoma 9-7
New York Giants 8 - 8
So now that you have read my predictions let me know what you think.Don't reach for the extra strength, lemon - scented bleach. Remember I used the team's history to make my predictions, so if a team has been great the past 2-3 years but sucked the other 5-6, that usually skewed the predictions to a smaller winning percentage. Hopefully I am wrong and the texans make it.
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Historical route is not a bad way to go
I could see half of this coming true. Of course, the issue would be with those teams (Texans, 49ers, apparently the Ravens, and even Raiders) who haven’t been good….who have the roster to be good. Not a bad way to look at it though.
"Lord, beer me strength."
When i read this
i was thinking the same thing… because though most of the teams predicted in this thread are historically the dominant teams, it doesn’t account for the Texans and ravens this year…
"Your mother is a hamster and your father smells of elderberries! Now Go away or I shall taunt you a second time!"
Go Texans!
here are my predictions based on bias...
in the AFC: Miami somehow takes the EAST… with the Texans and Pats in the WC
In the NFC: NO in the South, SF in the West, Falcons and Giants take the WC…
But who knows… my final prediction i will save for halfway through the season after Peighton and Homo go out with injuries… and don’t forget Brees has the madden curse this year so it might be Carolina and the falcons…
"Your mother is a hamster and your father smells of elderberries! Now Go away or I shall taunt you a second time!"
Go Texans!
No way the Colts go 13-3. They had WAY WAY WAY to many games dcided by less than a TD last year.
Prediction: This year their luck runs out and those games swing the other way, 10-6.
"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."
What happens when an unstoppable force meets three defensive players? THIS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpWqMqrZwTU
Isn't he about due
for a meeting with the Bonecrusher, a la Tom Brady a few years ago?
And, even if he’s not due, could that still happen? Please?
"MDC: Droppin' knowledge like a librarian with Parkinson's." --Jonathan Loesche
by MDC on Sep 9, 2010 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I do concur!
I am tattooing a picture of Jacobi Jones to my Mannschaft, Because it loves to go deep and always does a dance in the end...zone!
Go Texans!
You're on the right track ...
but I think a better prediction would be to have the more recent season’s record count more (or have more weight) than the previous season(s). For example, the Houston Texans 2009 record was 9-7 but since it is the most recent of the 8 seasons it should count as 72-56 (9 x8 – 7 x8). In 2008 we went 8-8 but should have a factor of 7 making it 56-56. And so on and so on. The 2002 season would just be a factor of 1 to make it 4-12. Then whatever your totals are need to be divided by 36 which equals 8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1. This will give each team the same type average record but will also account for trends as teams that have gotten better recently will have a better average with this system and vice-versa for teams that have gotten worse recently. This is how I usually do it, anyway. Peace!
Tease
How ’bout some follow through. Please?
Q: If losses by fewer than 7 points are 3 times more likely than blowout losses to cause Tim to get blindingly drunk, do you take the over or the under on the number of Scott appearances as 3.5?
TexansDC: False. You can’t get drunk from Coors Light.
Do it!!!
Like I said, it’s basically a prediction and I thought that this might be better than what a lot of the experts use. I just felt that looking at the overall picture would be a better indicator of constant success or failure and this would help make a better outcome than picking teams at random. Again I don’t think I’ll hit on every pick, maybe not even half, but I wanted others to look at it and be able to start a healthy debate. I’m all for looking at predictions if they have a good equation that we can all use. I also thought about using Points against – points for average and see how that affects the playoff picture. My method isn’t the only one out there.
Feeling the five stages of grief since 2002.
by NoSafetiesNeeded on Sep 8, 2010 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Predictions are like boobies.
Now matter how awful they are, I still wanna see ’em all.
Q: If losses by fewer than 7 points are 3 times more likely than blowout losses to cause Tim to get blindingly drunk, do you take the over or the under on the number of Scott appearances as 3.5?
TexansDC: False. You can’t get drunk from Coors Light.
Okay here is my official predicition for 2010!
This prediction is based on weighted values of each game in 2009 (i.e. the 16th game has the most value, the 15th game next, then 14th, and so on) separated into home and road games. Each value (home and road) has 8 entries for each game from last year. Obviously this system favors the teams who did better down the stretch and is somewhat scientific as opposed to just wishful thinking:
AFC East: NFC East:
N.Y. Jets 14-2-0 Philadelphia 13-3-0
New England 14-2-0 Cowfillies 12-4-0
Buffalo 6-10-0 N.Y. Giants 4-12-0
Miami 6-10-0 Washington 4-12-0
AFC North: NFC North:
Baltimore 12-4-0 Green Bay 14-2-0
Pissburg 9-7-0 Minnesota 11-5-0
Cincinnati 5-11-0 Chicago 4-12-0
Cleveland 3-13-0 Detroit 1-15-0
AFC South: NFC South:
TEXANS!!! 13-3-0 New Orleans 14-2-0
Dolts 10-6-0 Carolina 14-2-0
Tits 6-10-0 Atlanta 8-8-0
Jacksonville 3-13-0 Tampa Bay 4-12-0
AFC West: NFC West:
San Diego 16-0-0 San Francisco 11-5-0
Denver 7-9-0 Arizona 8-8-0
Kansas City 5-11-0 Seattle 2-14-0
Oakland 2-14-0 Saint Louis 1-15-0
These predictions are based on last year’s results only so they don’t take into account players drafted, injuries, trades, etc.
Even this system shows the Chargers going undefeated it’s only because of their schedule. These numbers actually have Green Bay winning the Super Bowl and our beloved Texans losing to the Jets (for the 2nd time) in the divisional round of the playoffs after beating the colts (for the 3rd time) in the first round for our 1st ever playoff win.
I can live with this!
/jumps up and down
Q: If losses by fewer than 7 points are 3 times more likely than blowout losses to cause Tim to get blindingly drunk, do you take the over or the under on the number of Scott appearances as 3.5?
TexansDC: False. You can’t get drunk from Coors Light.
Give me a little time
and I’ll post a prediction based on the system above. See below for my prediction based on last years games.
Here's my predictions using my system above - in the same format:
AFC EAST: New England Patriots / 12-4-0
AFC NORTH: Pittsburgh Steelers / 10-6-0
AFC SOUTH: Indianapolis Colts / 13-3-0
AFC WEST: San Diego Chargers / 11-5-0
WILDCARD: Baltimore Ravens / 9-7-0
WILDCARD: Tennessee Titans / 9-7-0
NFC EAST: Dallas Cowturds / 10-6-0
NFC NORTH: Minnesota Vikings / 9-7-0
NFC SOUTH: Carolina Panthers / 9-7-0
NFC WEST: Seattle Seahawks / 8-8-0
WILDCARD: Philadelphia Eagles / 10-6-0
WILDCARD: New York Giants / 9-7-0
P.S. – Houston Texans / 7-9-0 (4th) – I like my other system better! Peace!
I find it hard to believe
That the Saints post a less than 500 record this year.
Underestimate No One, Take Nothing For Granted
I can't decide which I find more interesting
That you think a team is actually going to win their division with an 8-8 record, or that you think they will do it with the Saints and Falcons in said division.
Be judgmental about the actions of the past, be hopeful about the actions of the future. -The Homers Creed
The reason ....
some of the records are at 8-8 is because overall those teams have been around average for the past 8 seasons. Some years they were barely above .500 while other years they were below .500. Like I said these aren’t the greatest but based on how my math broke down these are my predictions. I wanted to change several of them but since I don’t know the future I figured why not stick to them and see how many are wrong at the end of the season.
Feeling the five stages of grief since 2002.
by NoSafetiesNeeded on Sep 8, 2010 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Division Winners with 8-8 Record Since 2002
2008 – San Diego Chargers
That’s it but it has happened. A lot of 9-7 division winners, obviously.
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