An easy-to-calculate stat that bodes well for the Texans
by 19xxDinosaur on Sep 9, 2010 11:09 AM CDT
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Here's a simple stat from 2009 that I think bodes well for the Texans in 2010. Take a team's rank in total offense and their rank in total defense and average the two together. This gives you a rough approximation of the production of the team overall -- low man wins. For last season, the winner was Green Bay Packers with an average rank of 4.0 (they ranked 6th in offense and 2nd in defense). The Cowgirls were 2nd at 5.0, and the Vikings 3rd with 5.5. So, the top three all made the playoffs, and the Vikings made it all the way to the Super Bowl.
What does that have to do with the Texans? JUMP
The Texans' first three games last season were a complete disaster. Dunta wasn't in shape yet, the team wasn't yet comfortable with Frank Bush's defensive schemes, no Pollard, etc. Here's what's interesting. For the remaining 13 games, the Texans ranked 4th in total defense. Pair that with the offense's rank of 4th for the full season, and you'd get an overall rank of 4.0 -- the same as Green Bays.
I'm not saying that's all that matters, but it's a great start. For a more complete discussion, see Houston Texans 2010 Kickoff.
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I think, given a redux, he would say
“Dunta wasn’t in shape hadn’t returned to his old form yet and never would.”
Thankfully, the KJ era has begun. I hope I don’t have to re-visit that thought later in the season.
"It's the sport of kings....better than diamond rings.....football."
by Christopher H on Sep 9, 2010 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions
awww =) that's cool
I was trying to be nice.
I can appreciate you going for the classy treatment. I think BRB has gotten over the uselessness that was Dunta on the Texans defense. I bet you Dunta was the one who held himself back the most — pretty unfortunate.
Keep up the classy posts and great to see you at Battle Red Blog!
by BattleRedFan on Sep 9, 2010 11:48 PM CDT up reply actions
dunta is injured again
hey thanx to ATL for taking a big chunk of change off our hands
I am tattooing a picture of Jacobi Jones to my Mannschaft, Because it loves to go deep and always does a dance in the end...zone!
Go Texans!
Vikings did not make it to the superbowl...
New Orleans and Indianapolis … remember??/ Probably Not… so much for the formula…
Doin stuff so nasty that you have to do it twice to confirm the level of nasty!!
This is not an attempt to predict the EXACT order of finish
I thought that was clear. That’s partly what I meant by “rough approximation” and “I’m not saying that’s all that matters.” The thing to notice is the high correlation between teams that do well on this measure and teams that made the playoffs.
The basic message was…. If we want the Texans to make the playoffs, it’s encouraging to see that if they maintain the level of the last 13 games of 2009, there’s a good chance that they will.
by 19xxDinosaur on Sep 10, 2010 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Good Try Though...
Trust me the Texans don’t need a formula.. Just need to open a BIG CAN OF WHIPASS!!! WoooooooWEEEEEE!!!
Brang on the stanky ponies….
Doin stuff so nasty that you have to do it twice to confirm the level of nasty!!
How about a formula where you just count the most recent games?
If you count the last four games of the regular season from last year, and extrapolate from that information…….
A Texas Wannabe, born and raised in New Zealand. Currently located 7539 miles South west of Houston.
by distant_texans_fan on Sep 10, 2010 1:03 AM CDT reply actions
See my prediction in ...
“2010 Playoff Prediction” post by NoSafetiesNeeded. It’s based on all of last year’s games but extrapolates results to show what the numbers say will happen in 2010.
Two problems
1. A sample size of four games would be too small.
2. The rationale for eliminating the first three games was that they’re not representative of this year’s team. I think the Texans were clearly a different team once Pollard became the strong safety and the team got accustomed to Bush’s defense. For example, the team gave up over 200 yards/game rushing the first three games, about 84 per game for the rest of the season. What would be the rationale for eliminating games 4-12? In what sense would you argue that those games were not representative of this year’s team?
by 19xxDinosaur on Sep 10, 2010 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
But if we only look at the last four games,
then we win 100% of the games, so we go 16-0 this year. Imagine how awesome it would be to use the same prediciton system next year. We’ll never be beaten again!!!!
/sarcasm
A Texas Wannabe, born and raised in New Zealand. Currently located 7539 miles South west of Houston.
by distant_texans_fan on Sep 11, 2010 2:20 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think this is a particularly useful metric
For one thing, the way the NFL ranks offenses and defenses does not necessarily reveal which teams have the better offense or defense. A better metric to use would be DYAR or something like that. Second of all, using ranking points only gives you some idea of a team’s quality relative to other teams, but not in any absolute sense, even though you’re trying to make an absolute judgment from it. And finally, we played what looks to be a much easier schedule last year than this year, which would lead to an inflated ranking.
I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.
www.battleredblog.com
by tehGrindCrusher on Sep 10, 2010 4:36 PM CDT reply actions
Value depends upon objectives
What’s “useful” & what’s “better” depend upon your objectives. Is a hammer better than a screwdriver? It depends what you’re trying to do.
Maybe I misunderstand your point, but it seems you’re trying to make this metric do things it is not intended to do; as a result, you’re disappointed. This stat is used for PART of my analysis, it’s not the complete analysis (a more complete analysis is in the post that I linked to). When analyzing performance, whether of a business or a sports team, I have found it useful to have multiple metrics; I guarantee you the Texans have as well. Each gives you insight into a different aspect of your performance. For example, I’d be willing to bet that the Texans keep track of rushing yards per game — not because it is a “better” metric than DYAR, but because it is one of many metrics that give them useful insights. This is just one more tool that I’ve found useful.
I agree this year’s schedule is more difficult. However, that doesn’t make this metric useless to me any more than it makes last year’s rushing yards per game useless. You just have to factor that into your analysis.
Finally, if you think I’m trying to “make an absolute judgment” you’ve misunderstood me there as well; that was not my intention.
by 19xxDinosaur on Sep 18, 2010 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions
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