Kubiak Konundrum -- Baltimore Ravens Edition
Before we get going on this week's Kubiak Konundrum, first a few updates from the Raiders game: the decision to punt rather than attempt a 55 yard field goal averaged a 2.6 on the decision meter, so it gets a neutral 3.
Also, theSpaceCityKid brought up the inability to get two plays off at the end of the game. I first gave Kubiak a pass because he said the play was designed in fact to get two plays off and the implication was Schaub ad libbed; however, I do agree that Kubiak should have absolutely made sure Schaub would get two off. He should have been pounding it through the helmet radio, and Kubiak has to take some of the blame for his leader's inability to follow through on his plan. It gets a 2, and, frankly, I considered giving it a 1 for the first terrible decision of the season.
Enough avoiding the ugly beast of last week's game. Onto the Ravens. Unfortunately, my dvr had a mishap (or was it a freudian erase?), and I wasn't able to rewatch the game. I took plenty of notes though during the game, so the Kunundrum should survive this week, but fire away in the comments if I missed something and I'll add it to the scorecard.
Because of the lack of the DVR and the fact that I'm heading to New Orleans for my bachelor party and aim to forget last week's game entirely, we're going to dispense with the pleasantries and get right to it.
As always, 1=terrible call, 2=negative, 3=neutral, 4=positive, and 5=outstanding.
2Q. 7:47 left. 4th and 1. Texans ball. Ravens' 20 yard line.
No need to give this one a lot of build up. We all know what the dilemma was and what subsequently happened. What I want to know is: what were the people in your party yelling before the call? Cue The Clash: Should he punt or should he go now?
My living room voted 1 go for it, 2 against (including my hesitant self), and an abstention. I think down seven to a tough D, we needed the points, but I didn't necessarily mind the ballsy call. Another arrow through the apple of the argument that Kubiak is conservative.
Still, we are here to measure not what we thought about calls with our preconceived notions and strategies, but how they worked out. That the play did not net us immediate points or a first down makes it a negative. That the Texans quickly got the ball back in Ravens' territory and scored makes it only mild.
2Q. 19 seconds. Texans Ball. Down 10-7. Around the Texans' 35 yard line.
Last week, we discussed Kubiak running the ball twice when getting the ball late in the 1st half. Here, with much less time, he immediately let Matt Schaub throw the ball, quickly putting us on the outskirts of field goal position.
I don't think it's any sort of groundbreaking call and it will only get a neutral 3 here, but I included it to highlight Kubiak's late 1st half strategy. He clearly considers the ten yards between the 20 and the 30 to be monumental in dictating how aggressively to proceed. I think he would find a lot of company among NFL coaches in that conviction and think that as much fun it is to see the team chuck the ball down the field, it might just be for the best.
2Q. 8 seconds. Texans ball on Ravens' 42. No timeouts.
With 8 seconds left, no timeouts, and a makeable (albeit it boomer of a field goal) opportunity, running another play was a bit risky. Before the play, I wrote that I agreed with it but that unlike last week's game-ending play, he had to absolutely make sure Schaub threw it to the sidelines or threw it away qick. Anything else would be unacceptable. Schaub did in fact throw it away. No harm, no foul, neutral 3, moving along.
2Q. 3 seconds. Texans ball on Ravens' 42.
Wait what? No field goal attempt? So, obviously, if you wouldn't kick here, the last decision to try to get more yardage with eight seconds left was an obvious one. Why did I include it then? To show how convinced I was (and am) that Neil Rackers at least had a solid chance to make the field goal.
This is the second week in a row that we've discussed Kubiak choosing against a long field goal. I know he saw how much stronger Rackers' leg looked in preseason, and I can only assume that holds in practice. So, I can say this is an instance I truly believe Kubiak is being too conservative. Take that arrow out of the aforementioned apple. For today, Kubiak at least proved to be neutral on the conservative scale.
But, for the purpose of decision-making on this play, he was most decidedly negative. The game might have ended lopsided, but the ghost of Mojo Van Lackey knows we could have used those three points with about five minutes left in the fourth quarter. My only question is: was Kubiak's decision only a two on our Konundrum Scale or the year's first 1? You be the judge in the poll.
So, that's it. Yes, I just double-checked my notes and didn't see a second half decision I marked down. I'm not sure if that was me getting wrapped up in the game or the game getting wrapped up with four minutes left, so have at it in the comments if I missed anything.
Til' next time, where after my trip to New Orleans, I will hopefully still be intact, just like our place as the division favorites after the BESF game.
Ravens Konundrum results:
2: 1 play.
3: 2 plays.
TBD: 1 play.
Season:
2: 5 plays.
3: 6 plays.
4: 5 plays.
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I'm going with #3
I don’t think Rackers is hitting a 59 yard field goal anytime soon (unless we’re playing in Denver again, which I don’t think we are)
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
Poll
I’ll take a slim chance of 3 vs. an almost 0% chance of 7, so I rated it a 1.
Only 2 2nd half plays come to mind and they are both negative in my opinion. The decision to punt from the Ravens 38 with 4th and 8 (or 9) when we were down 5, midway through the 4th quarter. This is being too conservative IMO, we gained a total of 18 yards of field position with the punt, although it could have been more.
The other call I don’t know how much is on Kubiak, but not throwing a challenge flag on the obvious no catch by Torrey Smith (iirc) on the subsequent Raven’s drive put them in scoring range. I don’t know who is our replay people, but they suck, and have for many years IMO.
Love these articles, keep up the good work!
Unless I know there was a replay before the next play in the stadium
I cannot even say it was a decision at all – I think even CBS waited until after the next play to show the replay.
I am now drinking the koolaid. Texans are making their turn for the best. Screw pessimism!
by Barryfromtexas on Oct 20, 2011 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions
They did show the replay.
I was screaming at the tv for Kubiak to throw the challenge flag after I saw the first replay from the end zone camera which CLEARLY showed the ball hitting the ground. This is just pure speculation but I think Kubes is very gun-shy when it comes to throwing the challenge flag. He has not had a good history or success rate on challenges but that one was BIG. So assuming the “replay people” did see the CBS replay showing the no catch and Kubiak was the one who decided not to challenge, then I would give this a 1.
I guess you missed the
“in the stadium” part of the comment
I am now drinking the koolaid. Texans are making their turn for the best. Screw pessimism!
by Barryfromtexas on Oct 20, 2011 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
How about not challenging Torrey Smith's "Whoops, I dropped the ball" 50 yard catch?
That deserves at least a 2 since it led to a field goal.
I liked the decision, hated the play call.
by Karsh on Oct 20, 2011 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
Agreed.
"My idea of an agreeable person is a person who agrees with me." -- Benjamin Disraeli
"If you really want something in life you have to work for it. Now quiet, they're about to announce the lottery numbers." -- Homer Simpson
"There is no rehab for stupid." -- Chris Rock
Never try to baptize a cat.
I Agree
I wasn’t happy with the quick snap either. We didn’t quick snap because they were out of position so why do it? Why not hard count to try and draw offsides. Most 4th and short situations do no involve a hard count and actually running a play. That would throw them off more than a quick snap.
Also, I know the trick plays aren’t run here often. But why not run a hard snap count and have Schaub walk off but NOT call timeout with a direct snap to Foster? If even one D-Lineman if fooled at all, thats enough to get a hole big enough to gain 1 yard.
i completely disagree
take the points….changes how the rest of the game is played because you tighten up the game which makes ravens tighten up game plan..and just because you get the first doesnt mean you get in the end zone with the new downs..we end up making it up on the def side of the ball by the strip sack but if that doesnt happen we could have been looking at 10 or even 14 to zero instead of the 3-7 game
I see your point
I think with a team struggling on offense a big fourth down conversion and score can shift momentum that can be carried for more than just one game. I completely see the point of taking the points and I am typically in that court.
This may be backward thinking but I thinl a team that is struggling on offense needs a jump start and a successful conversion would have been sufficient. The same could be argued that not getting the first or getting the first and still settling for a field goal can drag a team even lower. I just think the former outweighs the latter.
the thing with that
is I dont really see us as a struggling offense..but more of a snowball…meaning, the more points we put up the better we get and the less points or 1st downs the more we press and end up with less to confidence..going bak to what is said about the succesful conversion and boosting morale i think it ends up being washed away if at the end of those downs u still end up with only 3..plus a 3-7 game lets u feel much more at ease because u know i td puts u ahead, vs if we dont make as we didnt, then they go down the field and score we have our backs against the wall..im just way on the other end of the spectrum here because i think at the end the neg possiblities vs the postive far out way vs what everyone else is sayin..again, we failed and ended up with nothing, wades d just bailed us out so i think we end up forgetting this..i think the play is a straight up 2 if not 1 on kubes decision to go for it
I'd go even finer than that.
Our offense struggled because we were stuck in 2nd and 8, 3rd and 6 situations instead of more manageable down and distance.
We just couldn’t stay on schedule and had to do a lot of desperation “get a 1st down” plays.
Snowball
I disagree with the snowball that more points lead to a better offense. We started out with 7 against the Raiders and then promptly slowed from there. I think the offense in general is lacking confidence without their go to guy. Dre being out changes everything. It takes away big play potential and also puts us into poor situations with our inability to run the ball.
I think the offense lacks the confidence we have had in the past. we need some catalyst to show them they can do it without Dre. The receivers including TE’s need to take it personal that teams don’t respect the pass. I think a big play against a dominant defense does that.
snowball
is suppose to mean 1st downs and points..getting in a flow, etc…i 100% agree with dre being out hurts our offense overall but again this points to taking the points when u can get them..
Schaub
I think your point is being linked to Schaub being a Hot/Cold QB. When he gets in a rhythm and has time, he is nearly unstoppable. He seems to play best when he is able to throw 15 plays in a row.
I may be going against the grain but I see that as even more reason to go for it in that situation. A TD is a huge momentum swing that this offense needs right now.
I liked it too.
I think making it would have helped more than not making it hurt.
by anthonymgarcia on Oct 20, 2011 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
as am I.
I had no problem with the decision either. It didn’t work out. It happens.
im just basking in my 15 seconds of BRB fame
thanks JMay!
Season Prediction v2.5.1 beta lite: Our Houston Wrexans will finish 11-5 and go UNDEFEATED within the AFC South!
by theSpaceCityKid on Oct 20, 2011 11:31 AM CDT reply actions
Does that make you a baskard?
"Fanaticism consists in redoubling your efforts when you have forgotten your aim." - George Santayana
Hail Mary
If Dreessen uses what happend to us last year as an example, and instead of going for the ball sits back for the tip, we has a good chance at snagging that ball in the end zone.
2 Defensive Scores are in the Karma Bag
"Wade aid has lean in it, just saying"
That was a once every 10 years play though.
You can’t expect a player to try and not catch the ball in case something freak like that happens.
Tips
are more likely to happen. Rarely is a Hail Mary pulled in by the crowd.
2 Defensive Scores are in the Karma Bag
"Wade aid has lean in it, just saying"
Mich ST
The tipped hail mary, FTW
2 Defensive Scores are in the Karma Bag
"Wade aid has lean in it, just saying"
Unless you are a beast receiver named Johnson
I am now drinking the koolaid. Texans are making their turn for the best. Screw pessimism!
by Barryfromtexas on Oct 21, 2011 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Going for it on 4th and 1 gets a "1" from me.
I think it was one of the worst decisions of his coaching career, given the circumstances:
1) They were on the 20 yard-line. Even if you get the first-down there, you still have to drive the ball 19 more yards against one of the best defenses in football.
2) We’re atrocious in the red-zone on the road. The odds of actually punching one in there are pretty slim. Crowd noise, etc.
3) I realize we were successful at times in short yardage situations last year, but running the ball directly at Terrence Cody and Haloti Ngata isn’t exactly a strength of the ZBS.
I didn’t like our odds of converting it, and the risk just wasn’t worth the reward (i.e., a fresh set of downs, yet still being 19 yards from the end-zone).
if ngata doesn't commit a horrible facemask penalty
we get the yardage
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
but again
even if u DO make the first it doesnt mean u get a TD with ur new set of downs..putting points on the board is always a good thing..it was very early in the 2nd and kubes decides it time to go for it!?!?…it was not gonna win us the game by getting us that first but it may have cost us the game (lost neways so kinda moot) if ravens go down and score if lil mario aka tim jamie comes ups with the strip sack
Wait that arguement makes zero sense to me
Everytime any coach EVER goes for it on 4th down they are doing it for a fresh set of downs to try and score, not because they are 4th and GOAL at the one yd line. You go for the yard to get another 4 chances not to hope you break thru and score
Season Prediction v2.5.1 beta lite: Our Houston Wrexans will finish 11-5 and go UNDEFEATED within the AFC South!
by theSpaceCityKid on Oct 20, 2011 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Ya im confused
a new set of downs inside the 20 yd line is a BAD thing now?
Season Prediction v2.5.1 beta lite: Our Houston Wrexans will finish 11-5 and go UNDEFEATED within the AFC South!
by theSpaceCityKid on Oct 20, 2011 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions
it was Cody
Season Prediction v2.5.1 beta lite: Our Houston Wrexans will finish 11-5 and go UNDEFEATED within the AFC South!
by theSpaceCityKid on Oct 20, 2011 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, this is the difference-maker IMO as well
I’m always in favor of taking 3 when it’s a one-possession game and there is plenty of time left anyway, but if you are on the goal line or something, I’m okay with going for it. I won’t love it, but I get it.
From the 20? Way too much risk involved, especially given how inconsistent the offense has been without Andre.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | Football Outsiders | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Oct 20, 2011 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions
As stated above
I like the call. Crowd noise is alsways a factor on the road. However, 7 here does a good job of lessening crowd noise. Especially if it comes after a 4th down conversion. I think this was a play to fully swing momentum back on our end. Obviously its a high risk, high reward play but I’m a fan given the circumstances.
IMO, we are playing for more big plays now to do anything to energize the team. It seemed like we brought more blitz packages than normal to try and create big plays. It worked right after this play but we got burned a few times later.
ok but high risk and high reward
to me isnt good coaching..this is the 2nd quarter of the game!!!..even if we do end up getting the first down THEN find our way in a crowded red zone without dre into the endzone and tie the game up at 7-7 they get the ball again, so crowd gets right bak into the game…taking the 3 isnt some world buster, but we DIDNT make the first down and that has a big impact…what if we take the 3 and end up with a turnover neways like it did happen..we could have see a lead of 10-7..the point of this article is to decide if it was a good decision and it just flat out was not. we rnt suppose to try and decide if we should be swinging for the fences and hope for this high risk high reward play to hopefully work out..it didnt work, it cost us 3 points..our D is INCREDIBLY better at getting TOs this year so take the points and keep playing..
But if Kubiak doesn't take risks, people will start freaking out about how conservative he is.
You can’t judge a decision solely on the outcome. There are lots of “look like a genius if it works, look like an idiot if it doesn’t” calls that coaches can make, but that doesn’t mean it was fundamentally a good or bad call.
Sometimes good calls go bad and vice versa.
i 100% agree with everything u said there
but a HIGH risk play isnt needed in the 2nd quarter IMO..thats the issue i have with it..im not saying it was a bad call due to it not working out for us..im saying its a bad call because of the pros and cons u get from making this call vs taking the points..man, i forgot how much i missed commeting on here..cheers to the brb group (raises peroni to everyone)
The point I'm trying to make, though...
Is that it’s not a high-reward play. Not unless you have the balls to run a play-action and take an end-zone shot on 4th-and-1. Best-case scenario, you’re looking at 1st and 10 with 19 yards to go against a defense that would prove to stifle us all day long. For it to have been worth it, you’d have to believe that the odds of scoring a TD on that drive were higher than the odds of failing on 4th down. But it probably would have taken a miracle to score a TD in that scenario; y’know, some sort of freak forward-fumble recovered by an offensive lineman in the end-zone.
Did u guys happen to catch
Flacco on Scott Van Pelt’s radio show today in the afternoon? Well, they asked him about last Sunday’s game, and (I’m paraphrasing, but he basically said this:)
They asked him: “So, you got some big bombs out to Boldin and Smith, is that a big part of your game now from last year? The deep pass?”
Flacco: “Ya, we’re trying to throw it out there and let our guys make plays.”
Gottlieb: “You were getting beaten up pretty bad all game, how was it to make plays like that while taking hits?”
Flacco: “Ya, it’s always tough to make those kinds of plays, and for the first half of the Houston game, they played us really tough. But then down the stretch, they turned into their usual self, and we took over.”
I gotta admit, I was taken back by his bluntness that he wasn’t threatened at all, nor was he surprised at us crumbling. Usually, players don’t speak so bluntly like that.
That statement makes me angry
But it’s hard to argue the truth…
"Never underestimate the dumb with JJ" - Hugh Jarce
were not feared...
See that quietness around here? That calm demeanor right now that all the Texans are feeling?
Thats the calm before the storm. Watch out Titans!!!
by Carter Liles on Oct 20, 2011 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Damn you, Flacco.
You suck, but you’re right.
by anthonymgarcia on Oct 20, 2011 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Great challenge material were we to meet them in the playoffs.
'Without change something sleeps inside us, and seldom awakens. The sleeper must awaken.' -Frank Herbert
I think you started your breakdown on the 2Q last drive to late.
We had alot more time on the clock when we got the ball and Kubes as usual seemed to be content to run the clock. Wasn’t till the Ravens called a TO after the run play that we went into hurry up. IDK, maybe kubes is thinking Ravens come with a nick or dime pkg w/2deep zone and we could bust a nice run on 1-10 and then try to get a score.
It seemsmore like, ‘Oh wait, they’re using TO’s…if we go 3n out they’ll have some time to maybe get a score…better go hurry up and start passing the ball.’, went through his head after the fact instead of at the change of pos/start of the series.
I know its 2nd guesing but it seems like Kubes is always worried about tendancies and becomes predictable to the opposite of what he likes to do. Then when the gameplan doesn’t work and we get behind, instead of adjustments, he goes to his usual tendancies or what plays he is most comfortable with according to down/distance and gets fairly predictable.
IIRC, there was a bit of wind that would probably render the 57 ydr as probable as the hail -mary. Maybe a 47 ydr would’ve been a 50-50 chance. I liked the playcall there.
Alcohol is necessary so that a man can have a good opinion of himself, undisturbed by the facts.
i really like what u said here about kubes and tendancies
ive thought that on a few different times that hes playing a chess game against himself…kubes-“they think im gonna do THIS so im gonna do THAT…but wait..maybe they know im gonna do THAT so ill do THIS..but wait”….JUST DO WHAT U DO KUBES..stop over thinking and trying to “trick” the guy across the field and call the plays..ur a VERY good offensive mind, so stop with the nonsense and run UR offenseplan!
I agree with the 4th and 1 attempt.
A field goal would have been nice and Kubes usually takes the conservative route so I was very much surprised that we went for it but I liked the call. However the officials once again screwed us as they have been all year long with the non-call on the facemask on Arian. That shouldn’t have mattered – if we can’t get 1 yard when we need it then we don’t deserve it – but I’m getting really tired of all of the blown calls, ridiculous pentalites on very iffy plays against us, mysterious calls on unknown players, and non-calls on the opponents penalties.
I didn't like the call as anyone who's watched football for more than a week knows you take the points everytime in that circumstance
Of course, I understand why Kubes pandered to the masses, but THAT’s where we need him to be a leader and say “I know better, let’s take the points and get’em next drive”.
"Eat Well, Stay Fit, Die Anyway" - Ancient Chinese Proverb
we eventually got the ball right back though
and converted for a TD. soo….maybe it was best neways. (as it maintained the field position, which allowed us to score a TD.)

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