Kubiak Konundrum: Tennesses Titans (Game 1) Edition
While you wouldn't think the biggest blowout of the year would provide much to discuss this week, there were a number of calls, including several on 4th down, that initially might have seemed like tough decisions until you actually thought about them. Much like a game against a first place, hated division rival on the road might have seemed like a tough match up. On to the shenanigans:
1=terrible call, 2=negative, 3=neutral, 4=positive, and 5=outstanding.
1Q. 2:11 left. 0-0. 3rd and 21. BESF 27 yard line.
Kubiak decided to take the conservative route and run a draw. With an offense that can get yardage by the chunk, as well as one that last year gave up too many long 3rd downs such as this, I generally like to give it a whirl and see what happens.
But the fact that it was early in a scoreless game on the road makes me at least think twice. As does the fact that Arian Foster gained about 15 yards, and the fact that he converted a similar 3rd and 10+ on a similar draw, I believe, just the week before.
I've gone back and forth on whether to give this a 2 or a 3, but for the sake of the good readers of this series not calling me a Kubiak homer for one week, I'll give it a 2. Barely.
2Q. 29 seconds left. 17-0 Texans. 4th and 1. BESF 11 yard line. 1 TO.
On a swing pass to Arian in the flat on 3rd and 5, the Texans came up just inches short. Normally on 4th and inches so deep in the other team's territory, whether to go for it or kick would be a decision ripe for discussion.
However, with the seconds ticking down, I don't think there is much to discuss. Even if they had called timeout immediately at 29 seconds, that would have left them with no timeouts, needing to get a first down and then finding a way to run a couple plays, all while risking a sack or tackle in bounds that would have left getting on the field for a field goal risky at best.
No, I think even our go-for-it-on-fourth-down lovers will agree this was the right decision, so much so that I can only give Kubiak a 3 for a neutral decision.
3Q. 5:12 left. 27-0 Texans. 4th and 1. BESF 36 yard line.
Another 4th and 1, and this time Kubiak goes for it. Arian takes the ball to the right and looks like he's going to get it twice, but hard charging Titans defenders hit him hard and stop him.
Again, normally this would be a play that would generate a ton of discussion. But with the score and time left, I think it's pretty much a no-brainer. A field goal would risk a block/return and at this point in the game, the three points were unnecessary. A punt would not gain a whole lot unless they pinned them deep. Might as well try.
Even though the play didn't "work" in gaining a first down, it didn't fail either in the grand scheme of things. So, was it a 2, 3, or a 4? I guess we might as well vote on this one. Ah, the apathy of a blowout win...may we have so many more.
4Q. 1:15 left. 4th and 7. BESF 34.
Interesting. Not questionable at this point in the game, and we won't even count it on our scorecard. But interesting. Kubiak goes for it on 4th and 7, running it up the middle. I wonder why he didn't just punt. Perhaps it was an attitude thing. We've been running it on you all day, so we might as well do it one more time.
On to the scorecard:
BESF Game:
2: 1 play
3: 1 play
TBD: 1 play
Season Totals:
2: 6 plays
3: 8 plays
4: 5 plays
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Last Week's Post
Sorry to miss some good discussion on last week’s post. I was busy slurping down excess alcohol from the gutters of Bourbon St. It looks like there was some discussion on Torrey Smith’s catch not being challenged. But, with enough question over whether there sufficient replays, my lack of having the dvr to go back and look at, and perhaps me still being in recovery, I’m going to give it a pass. Seems like it was a 2 at worst but probably somewhere around a 3. Thanks for pointing it out, though.
Was it me?
Or did Foster miss a good cut back lane on the play? I felt like he did and should’ve had the first. Sure, it was his only bad decision of the day, but I felt like he should have made the first.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
by bigfatdrunk on Oct 27, 2011 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Even though, do you get the feeling that the Texans want to keep going the "4th and 1 - run" route until it works?
I didn't do anything wrong!.... and, I won't do it again.
Good point
When Foster scored that late TD, even my son (8) was calling for them to pass after the previous two runs were stuffed. HA!
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
yep
Looked that way to me too. Any time you’re in 4th and short you should look for the quickest hole to get up field. I thought he stretched it too far.
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
I don't understand why people freak out every time a team runs a draw on third and really long
There’s a reason Defensive coordinators love to get teams in third and longs. It’s their best chance to make a big play. They can turn loose their pass rushers, maybe bring a blitz, and hopefully cause a turnover with a smaller risk of giving up a first down. It takes longer for routes down field to develop which just leaves your QB exposed at a time when the pass rush is coming hard.
There is nothing sexy or exciting about a draw, but I still view it as football 101. You know you don’t have much of chance to convert it, but your chances aren’t all that great throwing either. Hopefully you get enough yards to slow the pass rush down just a hair on that next one. Occasionally you catch a team being way too aggressive and come up with a big play.
I would hate it if they ran it every time, but in the grand scheme of things calling a draw in that situation shouldn’t be viewed as controversial in any way…yet I heard people bitching about it at the time.
"If my hips had pockets, I wouldn't wear pants at all." @NotBurtReynolds
64 percent of all the world's statistics are made up right there on the spot
82.4 percent of people believe 'em whether they're accurate statistics or not
I don't know what you believe but I do know there's no doubt
I need another double shot of something 90 proof
I got too much to think about
by papabear on Oct 27, 2011 8:28 AM CDT reply actions 5 recs
Agreed. Though I do wonder
if Kubes would have done the same thing last year when we had one of the league’s worst defense. This year, with confidence in our defense, going conservative in that situation is a no brainer. Or you know, if we had Andre on the field and healthy.
If we throw, we risk getting sacked out of FG range (which leads to great field position for the Tits if we miss) or pick/pick-6. Getting sacked could also lead to possible fumble and said fumble being returned for 6.
good point
Good defensive play changes a lot of things in offensive play calling.
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
i agree with ur overall point on this but..
i think the draw should only be used in a time when ur are trying to use up the clock..end of 2nd or 4th or at a time ur trying to eat clock or make the other team use a timeout…then draw makes sense..but in the first quarter i think a screen works better..the draw is such a give up type of play..and the screen gives u the same advantages u mentioned that the D will be coming hard trying to stop a long play..my 2 cents
Agreed
Draw plays accomplish several things…
1. Catch over aggressive defenses off guard
2. keep your QB from getting killed by a good pass rush
3. keep an over aggressive defense honest the next time
4. gain back some of the yards lost that put you in 3rd and 21 to begin with, and add more distance to the upcoming punt.
Considering that Schaub was very beat up coming into this game I would much rather try the draw play, which puts the ball in your best player’s hands, than risk getting him hammered on a deep pass attempt that has little statistical chance of success given the circumstances. It’s the “live to fight another day” approach.
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
4.
In our case it doesn’t add more distance to a punt, but lessens the distance of a FG attempt
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
A draw play is pretty much similar to a screen pass
and normally the defense is looking more at the possibility of a screen than a draw.
Either would have been the call I would have made – and the Texans have converted a couple of these this year.
I do not see how this is anything less than neutral. How is it anything negative at all.
"The greatest danger in planning for tomorrow is using yesterdays logic."
Marc Kahlberg
by Barryfromtexas on Oct 27, 2011 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
We're Texans fans
We’re not happy without something to bitch about.
Dallas Cowboys, all hat and no cattle since 1996.
by Jonathan Fosburgh on Oct 27, 2011 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions
O, the people have spoken
My personal preference to give a ten yard pass a whirl and see if they can run for ten more. I think there’s a much better chance of that converting. If they blitz, it could open up that hot read and make it even more likely. But, I understand there are too sides and the people have spoken. I’ll change it to a 3 for next week.
The draw play was a no-brainer. When you’re that close to field-goal range and you’re in a long yardage situation, you call a run just to get a few more yards to make it easier for the kicker. I think all the rest of the 4th down calls were about being ahead and confidence. If you’re already ahead by three scores, might as well go for it. If you make it, great. If you don’t, you have some film to look at to see what went wrong and maybe find ways to correct it in another game where the situtation is crucial.
This is EXACTLY what has been bitched about on this site over and over again. Kubiak being conservative. This time, even with a lead, instead of just trying to protect it, he was aggressive. I give 5’s to all the calls because he didn’t let up with a lead.
by SubCrim on Oct 27, 2011 8:51 AM CDT reply actions 4 recs
I agree
I complained a lot early last year when we got ultra conservative with a lead. But I watched the Bears-Bucs game this past weekend and I like our offensive play calling worlds better than that mess the Bears were calling in the 4th qtr.
They made a game they were dominating into a close game.
my Z key can't take another free agent flurry
I can't give fives tot hem because there was really nothing to lose.
But I agree with your general points.
Actually I understand the concept of picking an answer and then clicking on VOTE!
Things I don’t understand about this one in particular:
Answers 1 and 5 are essentially the same.
Answers 1 and 5 make no sense when used in conjunction with the question.
Answer 3 is a statement and not a phrase that would complete the question.
Answer 2 and 4 are the only choices that make any sense as phrases that would complete the question and not phrases I would vote for, because it wasn’t a risky decision and it sure didn’t shove anything down anyone’s throat.
Where are the question marks?
I didn't do anything wrong!.... and, I won't do it again.
poll
my bad, I thought that might be confusing but I left it in. Basically, usually one and five are the extreme options in the poll. I was trying to make the point that the decision wasn’t questionable enough to be one of the extreme choices, good or bad. As in, the apathy of a blow out win left me with little to poll over and this a decision even important enough to get an extreme grade.
As for 3, I think it makes plenty of sense if you’re not being overly literal. Think of it as interrupting or answering a question indirectly.
Rip is right
nothing against the poster of the poll, but as in as far as polls go, this one sucks. (I still voted tho)
by semihard@texans on Oct 27, 2011 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions
smh….i can only post from my phone now…….
All I want to do is FAAAARRRRRRRRRMMMMMMMMM!!!....and COok.
by Mellowcheese on Oct 27, 2011 10:57 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
I love the draw play call. Low risk/high reward and has about the same chance of being converted as a deep pass considering the defensive formation. Play calling is all about understanding what the opponent is calling, then exploiting the weakness in that formation.
Putting the ball in the hand of your best playmaker, knowing he will be facing a weak defensive look is the right play call.
by b4theproffit on Oct 27, 2011 11:15 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
On #2 I do not get your own logic
No, I think even our go-for-it-on-fourth-down lovers will agree this was the right decision, so much so that I can only give Kubiak a 3 for a neutral decision.
If it was a right decision – it has to be at least a 4
What curve are you grading on? (yes, I ended that with a preposition)
"The greatest danger in planning for tomorrow is using yesterdays logic."
Marc Kahlberg
by Barryfromtexas on Oct 27, 2011 11:32 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Not sure about that
But when proper grammar “sounds wrong”, I don’t like it.
"The greatest danger in planning for tomorrow is using yesterdays logic."
Marc Kahlberg
by Barryfromtexas on Oct 27, 2011 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wrecked....
for hating when “proper” grammar sounds wrong. Had this discussion with my mother more than once…..and actually got her to concede one point. Wish I could remember what it was now. lulz
Just my $.02
Even duct tape can't fix stupid
There was no question what to do
In the end, after discussing it, I felt the call wasn’t even really debatable. You can’t get a high five for making a totally obvious decision, so it was neutral. For example, we wouldn’t give Kubiak a 4 for a good decision on kicking an extra point rather than going for two in the first quarter.
If that is the case
Then why bring it up?
/just wondering
"The greatest danger in planning for tomorrow is using yesterdays logic."
Marc Kahlberg
by Barryfromtexas on Oct 27, 2011 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Not much to talk about this week.
In the lead I explained that were several things that seemed at first site questionable but weren’t after further examination. Namely, anytime it’s 4th and 1 or if he goes for it on fourth and further, it’s worth at least glancing at to see if they were questionable since they are rare and generally the type of decision that is controversial.
And, there wasn’t much else to talk about after that beat down.
OK, I reckon
"The greatest danger in planning for tomorrow is using yesterdays logic."
Marc Kahlberg
by Barryfromtexas on Oct 27, 2011 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions
what either 1 or 5 should've read is
1. The best option
Look, at the big picture. The ball is at the 36, so it would’ve been ~53 yard field goal (within Rackers range, but still a long shot) or you would punt it. If you punt it from the 36, you risk a touchback, resulting in a 16 yard change of position. the 35 yard line is considered no man’s land for the most part, its as much a ‘do you go for it on 4th down,’ as being inside the 5 is.
I just thought of the other option for 5
5. this wouldn’t even be debated if they had made it

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