Deep Steel Blueprint: Don't Sleep On Jacksonville's Run Defense
by TexansDC on Oct 27, 2011 12:07 PM CDT
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I try to fight the decade-long conditioning that whatever bad thing could happen will happen. Web pages like this one with the two very nice mentions are quite helpful, but things have not been too different for your Houston Texans in the past decade.
The boys in Battle Red struggle and disappoint when you expect big things from them, only to dominate when you doubt them. This week is one brimming with confidence when it comes to the visiting 2-5 Jacksonville Jaguars, but a closer look gives reason to cause doubt in my mind.
Gary Kubiak’s House of Offensive Fun is not an overly complicated beast to understand. Everything is predicated off of the run. Behind a solid offensive line, Arian Foster and Ben Tate are as strong a foundation ever seen for the Shanahan West Coast Offense. Of course, that is if they can get going and make the defenses respect their ability to run, which turns the play action fake from a nice toy to a WDD – Weapon of Defensive Destruction.
Yes, the Jaguars have a terrible offense, averaging only 12 points per game (31st), giving up 3 sacks per game (t-29th), with a league-worst 128.4 passing yards per game, and an equally as bad 60.4 quarterback rating. However, they also have the defensive tools to stall the Texans' offense and stay in this game if Kubiak is not paying attention.
The Jaguars have a -13.9% run defense DVOA, good for fifth at Football Outsiders and will be the second-best run defense, in DVOA terms, that Houston will see all year (behind Baltimore’s).
Breaking it down directionally, the Jaguars are stout on runs outside of the left tackle and behind the right tackle, they’re respectable up the middle, and terrible at runs behind the left tackle and outside of the right tackle.
Currently, the offense runs behind Eric Winston a league-high 24% of the time, more than double the league average of 11%. If Kubiak holds true to this trend on Sunday, Foster and Tate could sputter. Given the Jaguars' struggles, I would hope to see a lot of runs behind Duane Brown, who should see a healthy dose of Jeremy Mincey, and a returning (hopefully) James Casey.
Moving away from the hopes, I do expect to see the Texans stick to running outside of the left tackle early, due to their FO ranking of fourth in that direction. It’ll be a strength-on-strength match-up against Jacksonville’s defense, which ranks fourth in defending runs to the outside of the left tackle. I would hope Kubiak would make an adjustment if Jacksonville's linebackers were to win that battle early. Houston cannot afford to let Jacksonville gain confidence and stick around on the road.
The sooner the run is established, as we saw last week, the easier it is for Matt Schaub to play-fake a team to death. If the Texans are stonewalled by a stout run defense then this game could be a lot tighter than many expect.
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Our offense isn't terrible
It’s turrible
Best Farm System EVER.....
by tiquanunderwear on Oct 27, 2011 12:09 PM CDT reply actions
He's a jaguars fan
and he’s referencing Charles Barkley to fully impress upon everyone the turribleness of their offense.
by Tailgate Andy on Oct 27, 2011 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Why doesn't Jacksonsvill just die?
It seems like every year no matter how terrible they look, they always manage to win a decent number of games
(continuing the previous poster's thought...)
against us.
"my momma was the Mike Vick of ass whuppin. side arm delivery, no wasted motion.. and very mobile." - @doobieman21
I'm never not worried
Good analysis…and oh, yeah: thanks a lot.
Man....
I ain’t even worried….24-0 Texans. The Jags “stout” defense holds us that low. I think Texans D will be looking to make a statement of their own.
GO TEXANS!!!!
Our time is NOW!!!!
Really??
We arent that bad, i agree that the Jaguars probably are not going to win but it’s proabbly going to be like 17-10 or something. To tell you the truth you guys aren’t all that great, the Texans always manage to screw things up regardless
I know right?
98 points less (yes, ninety-eight points) than the Texans on offense. In 7 games. You’re not that bad…
Funny story- 98 points is also more than the Jaguars have scored all season.
"I am not a number. I bleed, I think, I feel, I hurt, I mourn, I cry, I laugh. We and you are the same. You are us. Love with me." -Arian Foster's twitter... Follow him, hilarity ensues.
by RayFinkle1985 on Oct 27, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I know our offense is bad
But in the last 3 weeks we have face the 1st 2nd and 3rd best defenses in the league, and we fared ok, plus you guys scored more points than us last year to and guess who was 8-8 and who was 6-10, oh that’s right….
On a side note
Isnt it crazy how both our teams turned the WORST defenses ever around in one off season. I agree that you have the best chances of winning, but for real give us some respect, the Ravens blog had all ready had the win as a forgone conclusion, but this year we have been playing teams close, and i believe that according to the general trend this game will also be competitive. Plus the Jaguars always seem to get fulfilling wins against the Texans.
Yeah everyone had the Ravens as a sure-thing
2 undefeated seasons in history, only one of which remained undefeated after the superbowl. Upsets happen. Everyone loses. I will be the first to admit that you can NEVER expect a win, you have to earn it. And I will also admit that my expectations of an upset loss to Jacksonville this year went up after Monday night.
"I am not a number. I bleed, I think, I feel, I hurt, I mourn, I cry, I laugh. We and you are the same. You are us. Love with me." -Arian Foster's twitter... Follow him, hilarity ensues.
by RayFinkle1985 on Oct 27, 2011 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Yea I understand
Our record and most of our stats say we are an awful team, but if you sat down and watched all our games, you’ll see that we have been competitive the whole time, that offense is our weak point and that we have a good defense, this Sunday should be no different, so i am predicting 17-10 Texans.
I have been impressed how quickly your D turned around
Even more so than ours has. You guys don’t suck. You guys do compete. But your offense just makes me cry indian tears. I’m sure it’s even harder to watch for Jacksonville fans… Do you really think Blaine Gabbert is your future? Because he seems to be struggling the most out of the starting rookie QBs.
"I am not a number. I bleed, I think, I feel, I hurt, I mourn, I cry, I laugh. We and you are the same. You are us. Love with me." -Arian Foster's twitter... Follow him, hilarity ensues.
by RayFinkle1985 on Oct 27, 2011 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
I know
I was a big Garrard supporter, and it was a mistake to cut him, and its very evident now.What people are saying over at BCC is that Gabbert has the most potential out of all of them, he has the intangibles he just has to work on footwork and other little things to become a good QB. Plus our receivers kinda suck. This year is a developmental year for him though, I’m chugging the kool aid on this one though, ill be happy if he turns out like Shuab and the Jaguars will have a good decade, so here’s to that!
I think you're right on Gabbert.
He has potential to be a very good QB and he’s young.
I didn't do anything wrong!.... and, I won't do it again.
You want Schaub?
But he's terrible! He needs to be cut!
Dallas Cowboys, all hat and no cattle since 1996.
by Jonathan Fosburgh on Oct 27, 2011 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Well as long as he learns from his mistakes he'll pick it up
He’s definitely got good decision making going for him.
"I am not a number. I bleed, I think, I feel, I hurt, I mourn, I cry, I laugh. We and you are the same. You are us. Love with me." -Arian Foster's twitter... Follow him, hilarity ensues.
by RayFinkle1985 on Oct 27, 2011 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions
We're talking about this year, friend.
And I’m just pleased as punch to inform you that this year, your offense isn’t just bad- it’s the worst. By a wide margin.
29. CLE -8.9 OFFENSE DVOA
30. SEA -18.3 OFFENSE DVOA
31. STL -20.5 OFFENSE DVOA
32. JAC -27.8 OFFENSE DVOA
Can you guys pull a W on Sunday? Hell yeah, any given Sunday, right? Would I bet on it? Not even with somebody else’s money.
"I am not a number. I bleed, I think, I feel, I hurt, I mourn, I cry, I laugh. We and you are the same. You are us. Love with me." -Arian Foster's twitter... Follow him, hilarity ensues.
by RayFinkle1985 on Oct 27, 2011 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is a test for Kubiak
I believe he needs to be conservative and patient on offense, wait for the defense to provide turnovers and field position, and then be opportunistic.
In other words, he has to stop thinking like he is an OC, and think about a strategy for the WHOLE team. Our advantage is our defense against their offense. He needs to use it. I hope he passes the test.
I think we'll win 18-0
Rackers will be the Player Of The Game with 6 FG, 3 Tackles, & 1 Forced Fumble
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Oct 27, 2011 12:37 PM CDT reply actions 6 recs
he'll do even better than that
he will be the first person in NFL history to score a touchdown and be given 7 points right away just do to the fact that he will have kicked the ball, made the tackle, forced the fumble and scored a td. That right there is worth and extra point right off the bat.
Just once
I want him to score 2
just for the lulz
"The greatest danger in planning for tomorrow is using yesterdays logic."
Marc Kahlberg
by Barryfromtexas on Oct 27, 2011 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions
That would be good
"The greatest danger in planning for tomorrow is using yesterdays logic."
Marc Kahlberg
by Barryfromtexas on Oct 27, 2011 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Given how consistently
we lined up and kick inside the 20, no one in the whole world would see that coming. Plus, the nonchalant flip from the holder is sweet.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter
A little practice on the overhead lb and you could drop in in everytime...
'Without change something sleeps inside us, and seldom awakens. The sleeper must awaken.' -Frank Herbert
I wanted to see him do it again for the 2 pt conversion
that would have been hilarious
I was thinking the exact same thing.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter
I'm now trying to figure out if George Blanda actually did that
It’s acutally possible, except the forced fumble. FG kicking QB who threw a lot of INT and played forever.
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
Twitter - xiane1
The Dreamshake
I think that the Jags
top ten ranked defense holds the Texans to 20 points, but the Texans top ten ranked defense holds the Jags to 6 points.
For those who didn't click on the first link (or like visual aid)
"Lord, beer me strength."
by TexansDC on Oct 27, 2011 1:01 PM CDT reply actions 4 recs
I caught the 10 wins thing
I hadn’t found the other chart yet.
Wait, we are slightly (perhaps insignificantly) more likely to win the Super Bowl than the Saints right now?
Dallas Cowboys, all hat and no cattle since 1996.
by Jonathan Fosburgh on Oct 27, 2011 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Probably more of a testiment to the NFC being better this year
Season Prediction v2.5.1 beta lite: Our Houston Wrexans will finish 11-5 and go UNDEFEATED within the AFC South!
by theSpaceCityKid on Oct 27, 2011 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Thats just weird looking.
Heh
Just your average, run of the mill hardcore casual Texans fan.
"Have you ever noticed that? We base our assessment of the intelligence of others almost entirely on how closely their thinking matches our own. I’m sure that there are people out there who violently disagree with me on most things, and I’m broad-minded enough to concede that they might possibly not be complete idiots, but I much prefer the company of people who agree with me."
by Autra on Oct 27, 2011 1:18 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
So you're saying there's a chance????
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Oct 27, 2011 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Chris Harris was just released by the bears. Second team all-pro last year, any chance we pick him up to fill for manning?
by splanket on Oct 27, 2011 1:37 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I doubt it
if Manning is still planning on coming back this year.
by Bobbythegreat on Oct 27, 2011 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions
I hope so
He’ll probably want to go where he’ll be a full-time starter, but we’re his best playoff opportunity at the moment so hopefully that comes into play if the offer is made (as it should be).
by The Arian Race on Oct 27, 2011 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't see the Texans signing him, he seems to be more of a slightly better version of Pollard.
He’s a liability in coverage, and that is the reason he was cut by the Bears.
In all seriousness I forsee
20-6 Texans. Texans score on opening drive with a 23 yard Arian Foster touchdown, and deflate any and all hopes of a win for Jacksonville. Later, a Jacksonville field goal early in the third quarter to a botched Kubiak 4th and 3, and also one late in the fourth quarter on a 78 yard MJD fueled drive after we really care anymore. Watch out… I’m pretty psychic.
"I am not a number. I bleed, I think, I feel, I hurt, I mourn, I cry, I laugh. We and you are the same. You are us. Love with me." -Arian Foster's twitter... Follow him, hilarity ensues.
I like how...
Anytime the team fails to do something, it’s on Kubiak, but if something good happens, the players get the kudos.
(asterisk * – with many fans here)
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
Never said it would be on Kubiak
But he is the head coach, he deserves some credit. And I was only jokingly referencing last weeks goofy 4th down call. You guys need to find something better to do than to try and pick apart people’s posts about football on a football website.
"I am not a number. I bleed, I think, I feel, I hurt, I mourn, I cry, I laugh. We and you are the same. You are us. Love with me." -Arian Foster's twitter... Follow him, hilarity ensues.
by RayFinkle1985 on Oct 27, 2011 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions
RayFinkle, you are a great poster! Don't stop! Don't let anyone get you down!
I didn't do anything wrong!.... and, I won't do it again.
Just think it's a cop out because you guys don't like the guy.
And if you do like him, it’s just a canned regurgitation of someone else’s beef, intended to get a reaction from the torch and pitchfork holding faction. Either way, I’m just pointing out an observation that I find silly.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
by beefy on Oct 27, 2011 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Isn't that how his post-game pressers go?
The loss is on him. Wins are because the players, um, played well?
Dallas Cowboys, all hat and no cattle since 1996.
by Jonathan Fosburgh on Oct 27, 2011 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
That isn't the issue though
The issue is with the fans and in particular the fans who “regurgitate someone else’s beef” here on BRB. We shouldn’t ever do that and we’re bad because we do do it. We’re all part of the “pitchfork holding faction” if we mention that Kubiak has any part of the blame. Can’t talk about it! Beefy will be offended!
I didn't do anything wrong!.... and, I won't do it again.
Just stop. You're not making any sense.
"I am not a number. I bleed, I think, I feel, I hurt, I mourn, I cry, I laugh. We and you are the same. You are us. Love with me." -Arian Foster's twitter... Follow him, hilarity ensues.
by RayFinkle1985 on Oct 27, 2011 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Torch and pitchfork faction??
Rally the townfolk??? While I really respect Kubiak, his staff and what the FO has done this year, I do enjoy stirring the pot regarding the mob. I find it hilarious that folks call for his head following a loss. Coaching has to be a bitch in the NFL. Executing questionable play calls successfully goes a long way to quelling the mob.
'Without change something sleeps inside us, and seldom awakens. The sleeper must awaken.' -Frank Herbert
Agree in part
People have no patience these days. That said, Kubiak has been here for awhile now, and rightfully deserves criticism for not doing better any one year than being 9-7.
Dallas Cowboys, all hat and no cattle since 1996.
by Jonathan Fosburgh on Oct 27, 2011 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Rec'd
I’m not ready to get rid of Kubiak yet, I still think he’s the best chance this team has to win until proven otherwise. At least he’s not calling timeouts to ask refs to review the call on the field of a touchdown… I think there was a poll somewhere about his 4th down call last week. It was unnecessary and goofy, but was a good attempt and running the score up on the BE-SFs so who cares. He’s been pretty spot on with the 4th down calls and challenges this year.
"I am not a number. I bleed, I think, I feel, I hurt, I mourn, I cry, I laugh. We and you are the same. You are us. Love with me." -Arian Foster's twitter... Follow him, hilarity ensues.
by RayFinkle1985 on Oct 27, 2011 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions
It doesn't seem they need the extra fodder.
But I’m sure they appreciate it from you.
I’m no one’s apologist. I’d just expect the blame throwers to take a second to throw it the proper direction sometimes, rather than just default to the coach.
Axes and pointy objects, on the other hand… please throw those at Rip.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
Haha!
I fear no pitchfork thrown in my direction
I didn't do anything wrong!.... and, I won't do it again.
The beauty of internet anonymity...
It allows you to remain a nobody.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
Same thing happens at Big Cat Country
All the bad is on Del Rio, all the good is the Assistant coaches or the players.
It’s just fans being fans.
Maybe I can shed light on this "head coach blame" thing.
It’s just natural to blame whoever is in the highest position of power. Just like how many Americans feel like all of their problems in life stem directly from whoever is in the oval office.
"I am not a number. I bleed, I think, I feel, I hurt, I mourn, I cry, I laugh. We and you are the same. You are us. Love with me." -Arian Foster's twitter... Follow him, hilarity ensues.
by RayFinkle1985 on Oct 27, 2011 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I hope we dont sleep on Jax
Baltimore did that Monday night & that didn’t turn out so well, that being said I’m pretty confident we will pull this one out 21-13, As long as Quinn doesn’t decide to bat anymore TD’s to Jax receivers
/shudders
Hopefully the team
is watching ESPN and NFL network which gives no credit to the Jags D. They also held PIT to 55 yards of offense in the 2nd half of that game the week before and if they had any kind of offense, the Jags would’ve won that game.
PIT & NO are the only 2 offenses this season to gain over 300 yards total offense against JAX and they held NO to 23 pts. The NYJ’s scored 32 thanks to 4 INT’s.
Well.....
If the Jags stout D holds our stout O in check then I still like our odds because our stout D should have no problems holding their poor O.
Advantage Texans, although I never take an opponent lightly and these games are always close.
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
ill give us 17 to 13
althoiugh i think 17s really low
CUT KAREEM JACKSON CUT KAREEM JACKSON CUT KAREEM JACKSON CUT KAREEM JACKSON CUT KAREEM JACKSON CUT KAREEM JACKSON CUT KAREEM JACKSON CUT KAREEM JACKSON CUT KAREEM JACKSON
im excited about one thing.. and one thing ONLY.
battle red cheers. yum yum.
"my momma was the Mike Vick of ass whuppin. side arm delivery, no wasted motion.. and very mobile." - @doobieman21
by chrisd21 on Oct 27, 2011 2:23 PM CDT reply actions 5 recs
I.....
Second, Third and Fourth that notion! Wish I could be at the game to see them live……( I only get to see the Texans when they play Oakland, SD, SF; but not this year!)
It's hard to make a comeback when you haven't been anywhere.
Never argue with Idiots. They will bring you down to their level and beat you with experience!
To do is to be. (Descartes)
To be is to do. (Voltaire)
Do be do be do. (Sinatra)
Thank you-- got sec. 109 row M....I am stoked!!!!!
Next Q: mom and I need battle red jerseys for the game, where is the best place to buy?
this being out first time, we’d like to know about parking, can we get something online or do we pay when we get there?
did I type that outloud? oops.
I you want stadium parking check the ticket sites.
Like where you just got your tix. Just select other or GA to see the list of parkng passes.
You may have to go to the Mothership to see the layout of the different lots. Blue Lot has the best tailgating.
Next best option is to take the rail up to med center. Not sure what stop/station but it’s a short walk to stadium and the wx is going to be great.
Open roof in d’House of Violent Texans’ Luv
Alcohol is necessary so that a man can have a good opinion of himself, undisturbed by the facts.
We're staying at the holiday inn on Kirby
would it be easier to just walk?
did I type that outloud? oops.
Academy is a good place to go.
I didn’t get jerseys though, I got one of those t-shirts that has name (both Foster) and number on the back, bought a steel blue one and a battle red one for a price of less than 1 jersey. This way I have a shirt to wear whether we wear blue or red, white is mostly for away games.
Staying close just walk it.
The Texans’ store is on the south side of the stadium in Budweiser Plaza. They’ll have plenty of stuff to choose from at retail prices.
Alcohol is necessary so that a man can have a good opinion of himself, undisturbed by the facts.
Nice!
we intend to go early, around 9:30 to 10am, and go to the pre-game festivities in Budweiser Plaza.
did I type that outloud? oops.
I know he does not play with us anymore.
but this was a bad fucking call. just wish we could have heard the audio after the hit.
Agreed.
"I am not a number. I bleed, I think, I feel, I hurt, I mourn, I cry, I laugh. We and you are the same. You are us. Love with me." -Arian Foster's twitter... Follow him, hilarity ensues.
by RayFinkle1985 on Oct 27, 2011 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
There wasn't even helmet to helmet contact
His head was in front of the receiver’s numbers. You can’t get any cleaner than that
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Oct 27, 2011 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Not enough to warrant a penalty though
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Oct 28, 2011 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Texan DC
you hit it right on the nail…they let us down when we think they wont and they suck us back in to thinking they are great when we have given up on them…
the next THREE games are a MUST WIN to change this culture…not necessarily to go to the PO but to change the same ole same texacants.
2011 Season is the Reason!!!
Texans will do what they do.
It’s easy to think they did something special in the Titans game but they didn’t. They did exactly what they did in the Raiders and Ravens games. The difference was they did it better in the Titans game then those other two. Particularly on offense with Foster and the O-line finally showing up since that Steelers game.
Jags run defense has looked good so far but so did the Titans offense. I can’t help but notice none of the teams they’ve faced this years sans the Steelers game have a very good running game.
The one good rush offense they faced was the Saints who had 34 carries for 177 yards at 5.2 a clip.
The Texans will run the ball effectively IMO but I don’t see them scoring more than 24 points. But considering the Jags offense that should be enough in a 24-7 or 23-10 game.
If David Garrard was under center I’d be scared but the Texans are going to force Gabbert to beat them by limiting MJD while simultaneously gaining enough of a lead to force the Jags to pass.
Prediction: 11-5 AFC South champions.
Imo the key to this game is really to score early
If we can force them to pass we should be fine.
"Slammed that hoe on the counter like I just got 35 on the domino table!!"
Sherrod Harris
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