Will The Texans Sign A Free Agent Nose Tackle?
by Jake on Mar 6, 2011 10:12 AM CST
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PrintLast week, Rick Smith signed three players who were already on the roster of the Houston Texans to extensions. One of these players was Shaun Cody, who Gary Kubiak, Rick Smith and apparently Wade Phillips believe can play nose tackle in the new 3-4 defense. I made the hypothesis at the time that signing Cody meant that they preferred Earl Mitchell as the starter and that the Texans would probably not pursue a nose tackle in free agency, and very well might draft a prospect for Wade to mold for the future.
In today's Sunday Blitz by the National Football Post, there was an interesting nugget about the Texans:
"The Dolphins raised a lot of eyebrows when they put the franchise tag on nose tackle Paul Soliai, guaranteeing him about $12.5 million in 2011. Why did the team step out like that on a player who most fans aren't even aware of? My sources tell me the Dolphins surveyed the free agent field and believed there were no other nose tackles close to Soliai in ability. Given the number of teams playing a 3-4 defense, the Dolphins feared Soliai would be the subject of a bidding war. In fact, there were rumblings that the Redskins and Texans coveted him."
So this begs the question--are there any other potential free agent nose tackles that could be targets of the Texans, or was I right in my original theory?
My first thought when reading the quote above is that getting into a "bidding war" with Dan Snyder and the Redskins is one of the classic blunders in life, only surpassed by getting into a land war in Asia. If Soliai was actually that coveted and was allowed to test the market, the Texans probably would not have landed him. But was Shaun Cody the immediate backup plan? No matter whether you agree that Cody is a good fit for the 3-4, I think all would agree that he would not be a high priority free agent for anyone outside of Houston. Remember, Cody was picked up when he was released by Detroit, and I've never read anything to suggest that he was pursued by any other team.
My gut tells me that when Wade took over he decided that he liked what he saw in Earl Mitchell and was going to try and mold him into the lighter, penetrating nose tackle that he had in Dallas with Jay Ratliff. I think after making that call, he decided to sign a free agent like Soliai for the immediate time-frame, and he decided to draft a nose tackle to develop behind Mitchell. I could see Wade targeting another Ratliff-esque player to draft, a bigger body classic nose tackle, or maybe a hybrid type like Marcell Dareus.
The Dolphins probably didn't want to spend $12.5 million on Soliai, so the fact that they were willing to tells you not only that they were serious about the lack of free agent nose tackle talent, but also what it might cost to get a comparable talent. They're decision to tag Soliai probably reinforced the same point to the Texans. I believe Cody wasn't next on their nose tackle list, but when faced with the prospect of spending valuable free agent dollars and even more valuable cap space in a year they need to fill a lot of holes, they decided to lock up Cody to fulfill the veteran presence for that position.
The Texans need immediate improvement on the defense because another dreadful performance might cost everyone their jobs as the Texans could begin yet another complete rebuilding effort. Signing someone like Soliai would ensure that the talent at the position would immediately improve. Mitchell would provide possible impact for 2011, but more likely is a project for the future. Now that Cody has been retained, I could see the Texans making nose tackle more of a priority for the draft. As opposed to drafting a mid-round prospect to develop behind Mitchell, I think they might target someone in the first couple of rounds. The reason being that Cody is not a game changer, so either Mitchell or the rookie needs to have an instant impact in 2011.
If the Texans did in fact shift gears from acquiring a good to very good free agent nose tackle to re-singing Cody and putting more of an emphasis on drafting a game changer at nose tackle, I would actually wholeheartedly approve of the strategy. Rather than over-spending for someone like Aubrayo Franklin, I would much rather see them pursue veterans for the secondary, where there is certainly more value to be had in free agency. This could certainly be wishful thinking, but the early Texans offseason moves such as letting go of players because they can't cover (Eugene Wilson and Bernard Pollard) and not forcing someone into a position just because he was a high draft pick (Amobi Okoye) make me think that Wade has injected a healthy amount of common sense into the defensive talent evaluation.
That's my theory. What are your thoughts on the matter?
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Inconceivable!
Solid analysis, I agree wholeheartedly. In a deep FA CB class, I think not tendering Pollard and releasing Wilson indicates to me that they’re saving their coin for a splash or two in the defensive backfield. Love the Princess Bride reference too, perfectly appropriate.
by La Voz on Mar 6, 2011 10:33 AM CST reply actions 3 recs
I have to agree
I think the texans free agency will consist of 2 players in the secondary, and probably a linebacker for depth. By training camp, I hope we have 4 new players in our secondary. Not necessarily starters.
Earl mitchel has a chance to be the guy, but if he doesn’t really want it enough, it won’t happen. 20% chance
by AllenOU on Mar 6, 2011 11:22 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I think desire is not a problem with Mitchell.
I think we should expect a lot from him this season.
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by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 6, 2011 10:16 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I don't see Mitchell playing NT
I see him as Mario’s or Antonio’s backup at DE
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
by The Night Owl on Mar 7, 2011 1:38 AM CST up reply actions
I initially thought that too...
But I could see him being a Ratliff-type NT. I do, however see Amobi moving out to DE, if he makes the final roster.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
Welcome, La Voz!
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http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
Doubt it.
But I think it’s certainly on the table for the draft. Interesting to hear about Soliai, though… I didn’t think he was considered any better than Branch, Watson, or Franklin.
Really though, it speaks to identification of the real problem: safety (both of ‘em). I know most around here aren’t high on Cody, but as bryan explained well in another thread, they at least know what to expect from him, even if it peaks at “slightly-below-mediocre”. So their option was to either re-sign Cody for relatively cheap, or most likely overpay and tie up precious cap room to upgrade from “slightly-below-mediocre” to “just plain mediocre” with one of the guys mentioned above.
Seems to me that it’s money better spent to upgrade from “Ewwww” to “good” by grabbing somebody like Weddle (or “awful” to “great” via a CB) than to get a minor upgrade at DT. It also gives you some much-needed veteran leadership in that secondary.
Couldn't disagree more
I really, truly couldn’t.
Soliai is ranked 10th, Franklin 13th, by PFF. The best Cody has placed is 42, and he has a five-year track record of mediocrity and well below that. Both Franklin and Soliai were excellent last year, and I’ve long been on the Franklin bandwagon (who was also 15th in 2009, 17th in 2008. Franklin is a very solid above average NT/DT in the league).
Just because you know what to expect from somebody doesn’t mean you re-sign him. It reminds me of the old “proven veteran” strategy most GMs use when re-signing a Shaun Cody. At what point is he considered proven to suck? Proven veteran was attached to Pedro Feliz when he was signed, for example. Shaun Cody is part of the problem, not the solution.
Here’s what I see: I see re-signing Cody and Daniels, neither of which actually address a team problem, as doing nothing. Daniels is a fine player, but the drop-off from he to Dreessen and Casey is fairly negligible. With the money we used to sign those players, tying up precious cap room in the process, we could grab a Franklin or at least address the gaping hole in the middle of our D in a meaningful way.
As far as the draft? Sure, there’s a chance a Fairley or Dareus (doubtful) or Paea will be picked, but this is also a FO that has passed up players like Dan Williams when the needs were precisely the same. When you consider we need to address additional problems at LB, CB, DE, and especially S – just on defense! – I see the Cody re-signing has nothing less than complacency with below-average mediocrity.
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by bigfatdrunk on Mar 6, 2011 1:35 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Which is precisely why...
If we are playing for 2011, we should be making a push with better players and not trying to solely fill holes through the draft.
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"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
Did You Just Compare Shaun Cody To Pedro Feliz?
Because if you did, I feel like I need to challenge you to a duel to defend Cody’s honor.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
by Tim on Mar 6, 2011 2:20 PM CST up reply actions
Travis Johnson's knee
has a better track record of success than Cody in a Texans uni.
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Thats not nice
he is the only guy on our defense that knows what a screen is
Is it better to live as a monster or die as a hero?
He is our best defensive tackle
Or was
by AllenOU on Mar 6, 2011 4:17 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
That's not saying much.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
by bone31crusher on Mar 6, 2011 5:24 PM CST up reply actions
That's REALLY not saying much
considering Jeff Zgonina has been our best interior D lineman to date.
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
Pedro Feliz was a solid-average MLB third baseman
Until after the Astros signed him, of course
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Feliz
For 3Bs:
2009: 29th in VORP at 2.0
2008: 36th at .7
2007: 47th at -2.3
2006: 52nd at -7.9
Offensively, Feliz wasn’t even replacement level.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
I wanted to
But it BP doesn’t let you filter it by position.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
really though
with how bad 3b are right now, if you can’t be above average… you truly truly suck
Is it better to live as a monster or die as a hero?
Well, I suppose it's all about how you prioritize it.
Because Franklin is going to get a payday. If they manage to get him, odds are you’re going into the season with the same secondary as last year (only, with your back-ups starting), perhaps augmented by the draft. That doesn’t appeal to me. I don’t think you can find a safety or CB capable of playing their position as well as Cody plays his for the same price. For my money, Weddle/Joseph/Marshall + Cody > Franklin + somebody less valuable than Jacques Reeves. Consider also, cornerbacks and free safeties are every-down players. There’s no way to compensate for weakness in that area. On the other hand, Shaun Cody can be used against the run (playing to his strengths and vaulting him to “mediocre”), then subbed out in favor of Mitchell in passing situations.
As for drafting a fatty, I don’t think it’s out of the question. The needs were not the same when they passed on Dan Williams; nose tackles don’t have the same value in a 4-3. And if they think Phillips is going to stick around for a while and build a solid 3-4, they could easily grab somebody early on (not in the first, though) and let them learn the game for a year or two.
Soliai would definitely fit the Texans MO on free agent signings
-Relatively young
-Not the best FA available at his position (PFF me all you want BFD, but Franklin has tenure and a better track record.)
-Solves gaping hole
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
I'd easily want Franklin over Soliai
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Franklin was my choice
But we won’t be signing anyone, so I’m holding out hope for Eric weddle and jonathon joseph.
They simply have no choice but to draft a NT in the fourth round at the latest. No choice
by AllenOU on Mar 6, 2011 3:02 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Franklin's great
Watching as many Niner games as I do, he’s better than what PFF scores him at. He makes life much easier for Justin Smith and Patrick Willis.
"Lord, beer me strength."
I think Alan Branch could be someone they target
I just think he might be good depth, but I think they’ll look for a starter in the draft in the first 2 rounds. Branch is a big body & a hole clogger, too big to ignore, but I think he’d come at a relatively “cost effective” price
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
has Kris Jenkins
Signed with anyone yet?
by theSpaceCityKid on Mar 6, 2011 4:25 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Nope, but he's become injury prone & he's getting up there in age
Not to mention he’d require a higher price tag than Branch
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
by The Night Owl on Mar 6, 2011 5:28 PM CST up reply actions
Any word on what Okoye’s future looks like?
I’m going to trust Wade to do what needs to be done, he’s done it before and hopefully he’ll do it here and put together a defence that at the very least can allow our O to win games. If he thinks he can do that with Mitchell and Cody and allow us to chase free agents elsewhere then I’m willing to have a little faith and trust that they’ll go for the talent that he wants for his defence. Don’t forget when he was asked about it he specifically mentioned Cody as well as Mitchell, that means he’s seen something on tape. Nothing’s certain till he can see them on the field when there’s a season but try not to doubt they’re making plans to win now. Koobs at least will know he has to produce this year or there’ll be a new HC in town.
I think he could get packaged in a draft day trade if a new CBA is in place before the draft
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
by The Night Owl on Mar 6, 2011 5:30 PM CST up reply actions
No, there's no word on ANYTHING...
That’s why we’re left with speculative posts like this one, and bfd’s scathing thoughts above. Everyone’s grasping at straws, but there’s no information at all being given, so the straw graspers keep working themselves into a tizzy, assuming Wade McSmithiak is just sitting on his collective thumb, ignoring the diamonds they’ve been spewing about for ages. If everyone here could just wake up every other morning and say, “I don’t know, and sometimes that’s a good thing.” the texans’ blogosphere would be a much calmer place.
That’s all I have to say about that….
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
True
Because this front office has proven incredibly adept at addressing defensive concerns. After all, it was just in 2009 that we had the BEST DEFENSE EVER!!!
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"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
The idea that they are standing pat and willing to just trust Wade's scheme is one I disagree with
They have cut Ewww and effectively cut Pollard. It also looks like Diles could be out. Three of the weakest links on the defense are out. If they can significantly upgrade those three players somehow that is a pretty successful off-season. Just getting rid of them is a win in my books, and the fact there hasn’t been a real off season yet (+the apparent interest in at least on real NT) is enough to keep me from jumping off the roof yet.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
Cutting Ewww, Pollard and without free agents
it will be an incredibly young defense next season.
I didn't do anything wrong!.... and, I won't do it again.
I guess...
It’s still the same FO that were being lauded for the positive outlook Cushing, Barwin, and Quin provided us before the Bush floor fell out. If I’ve proven anything here at brb, it’s that I absolutely cannot get people to see the positive if they don’t want to.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
And there would be absolutely nothing to read
These guys have to write about something, right?
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
Agree...
Just tempering the moods a bit. It’s become very difficult to wade in these waters as simply a “I know they haven’t done EVERYTHING wrong, so I’m hoping for the best” guy when there are so many still toting their pitchforks and flamey sticks… TORCHES, that’s it!
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
Flamey sticks it is
Offensively, I couldn’t be more Pollyanna. I mean, shit, just wait til I do the o-line write up (hopefully tonight).
Defensively, it’s all pain and tears.
NEED MORE LITHIUM!
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http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
Oline
Just make reference to how many of us were Stabby McNeedles on Meyers just one offseason ago before Arian silenced us with his badassery. Kinda similar to your (mostly collective “yalls”) defensive thoughts now.
I feel pain too, fellas. Just sluff it off as unavoidable, like when Jordann shows up at my door after a night of wine coolers and male hooker-fail. Untold pain…
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
My love of Brisiel
and, yes, even my love of Wade Smith, though, makes me a happy man.
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http://www.battleredblog.com
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Is Travis Johnson available?
Or perhaps Jeff Zgonina?
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
WE WANT CANKLES!!! WE WANT CANKLES!!!
"In conclusion, I’d like to say that Dicky Justice is an assclown."
"...your in-house hirings on the defensive side suck donkey balls..."
- tehGrindCrusher
Thanks for the welcome, bfd. Now, about signing DTs...
Let’s look at the FA DT class vs. the FA CB class. Here are the DTs:
http://www.walterfootball.com/freeagents2011DT.php
Let’s assume the star ratings on there are of decent accuracy, and since Cody is rated at 1.5 stars out of 5, let’s assume we only want to bring someone new to the team if they’re a solid player (solid being 3 stars for our purposes). No sense in bidding on a FA market unless we’re going to make a marked improvement. Anyway, looking at that list of 3 start DT prospects, we have to ignore those that are listed as DE/DT because that means 3-4DE/4-3DT. Minus those players, minus those signed, and minus those noted as 4-3 only players in their descriptions, that leaves us with only 4 FA DT prospects of 3 stars or greater that could possibly play NT for us (Mebane, Cofield, Franklin, & P. Williams).
Now let’s look at the CB class:
http://www.walterfootball.com/freeagents2011CB.php
3-4, 4-3, whatever, a CB is a CB regardless of the system. With that in mind, let’s count the prospects rated at 3 stars or better that remain unsigned. There’s 7 of them.
If we reduce our standards a bit to 2.5 star prospects, we add 2 more DTs and 4 more CBs to our FA prospect list, for a total of 6 DTs and 11 CBs.
From a pure supply and demand perspective, teams are going to overpay for DTs versus CBs given the quantity differential. However, a bonus for teams in the market for CBs is that there’s 5 star prospect available in Nnamdi Asomugha (Scrabble). A team that needs a CB or CBs is going to overpay for him, because they’ll have to given the demand for him. This means that team that does get him, a team that needs a CB or CBs, will probably ONLY be able to afford Scrabble, leaving fewer CB-needy teams bidding for the remaining prospects.
Let’s look at Safeties too while we’re at it:
http://www.walterfootball.com/freeagents2011S.php
There are 6 safeties available at 3 stars or better, and 6 more 2.5 star safeties available. We need 1 or 2 of those (depending on Quin) too. So, summing up 2.5 star prospects, there are 6 DTs, 11 CBs, and 12 Safeties.
I’m not a huge fan of Cody, and definitely not a fan of what we paid him, but he’s at least a devil we know. I think Jake’s analysis was spot-on, it’s just not a great free agent market for DTs so we might as well resign our mediocre DT instead of signing someone else’s mediocre DT (or worse, paying “superstar” money to just a “good” or “really good” player).
And remember, at least this year we won’t be lamenting our 2 DTs as weaknesses in our defense because we’ll only be fielding 1 at a time! Yay, instant improvement!
by La Voz on Mar 6, 2011 9:31 PM CST reply actions 5 recs
bfd = pwned.
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by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 6, 2011 10:22 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Heh
I don’t think so, but I sure do appreciate this argument much more than the current conventional Cody wisdom, which runs along the lines of:
I keep running head first into a brick wall, but it’s OK!, because I already know what it feels like.
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by bigfatdrunk on Mar 7, 2011 7:37 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Great post.
Safeties class seems a little deeper to me and I’m sure the Texans are eying at least one Safety and one CB. The DT class really is thin so resigning Cody makes the most sense as they probably want to focus on whoever they are planning on signing for the secondary.
Nice post.
Unfortunately, the majority of those safeties are strong safeties. No doubt we need that as well, but there are really only two quality options out there at FS. The good news is that safety is a relatively low-paid position. So even if you overpay, you’re likely to end up in the $6-$7 million range, rather than the $10-12 that the top CBs are going to command.
As you mentioned, there’s so little elite NT talent out there that it’s going to be pricey. And CBs by nature are expensive. I’m thinking their best option would be free safety and OLB in free agency (what kind of cash is Manny Lawson going to command?). And on an unrelated note, the more I think about it, the more I’m starting to believe that having the draft before free agency might actually benefit us, since we’re in a position in which we’re completely unsure of which defensive player is going to drop to us.
Not trying to pwn anyone, just bringing up some points.
As for the safety list, it’s actually good that it’s deep in Strong Safeties as opposed to Free Safeties. That’s good because we’re considering moving Quin to FS. Or, maybe that’s WHY we’re considering moving him to FS given the lack of FA depth at the position. Regardless, more SS on the market is a win for us.
And you’re totally right, Nash, CBs cost ridiculous sums. Though, I’d argue that between Albert Failsworth and this recent Soliai tag, DTs may not be far behind. Then again, Al Davis just threw a small credit union at Stanford Routt (facepalm), so who knows how the relative pricing is affected.
Whatever. Just keep pwning bfd and you will be the most popular poster on this site in no time.
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by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 7, 2011 2:06 AM CST up reply actions
1.5 stars. That's the key component here.
What was the market for Shaun Cody? Was it 2-years for $5.75MM on the open market for a replacement level or below DT? Basically, we bid against ourselves. All of the players you listed are clearly better than Cody, so we’ll get a good idea about what the market is once they start signing. Shaun Rogers’ contract is a fairly decent comp, given the trade-offs between age and performance.
To me, going back to the economic angle of this, we’ve created three problems by re-signing Cody at this stage. First, we aren’t improving the situation. That’s a net loss, no matter how you look at it. Aside from letting Okoye go to the QB, our interior defensive line play is embarrassing. Secondly, we’ve used almost $3MM a year to not improve and removed those monies from the cap. That, too, is a net loss. Finally, you’ve taken up a roster spot. The flexibility with cap room and roster composition are extremely important aspects (which is why I love the economics of roster construction much more than the actual economics of the game).
And we’ve done this for what? To keep a below replacement level player with absolutely no upside? If we’re going to sign somebody like Cody, we could find similar talent – there are lots of other 1.5 and 1 star players on the list above – who’ll give us similar production to Cody (the bell curve distribution of talent with mediocrity clogging up the middle). Also, we could find a player, Vance Walker, for example, who at least has SOME upside. Cody is just a body, offering nothing more than 1.5 star potential and 1 to 1.5 star play. I believe the market will find that contract on the far high side once FA is open. Further constricting our ability to make moves doesn’t help.
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La Voz made good points, but I agree with bfd.
There’s really no excuse for keeping Cody around. The idea that we would only be able to sign one DB free agent if we signed a better NT free agent is an artificial restriction self-imposed by Rick Smith that’s proven to be an asinine means of doing business.
Maybe the only reason we’ve been a mediocre-to-below-average team since Smith’s been a GM is that we’re only signing mediocre-to-below-average players to fill the roster out.
Dream Texans Draft:
1. Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
2. Rahim Moore, FS, California-Los Angeles
3. Sione Fua, NT, Stanford
4. Casey Matthews, ILB, Oregon
5. Chykie Brown, CB, Texas
6. Jerrod Johnson, QB, Texas A&M
7. Chas Henry, P, Florida
by krkenney on Mar 7, 2011 9:40 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't entirely disagree with you bfd, but it's the devil we know vs. the devil we don't.
Salary Cap
Before I get to the “devil we know vs. the devil we don’t” argument, I want to address what krkenney said. The restriction on us being able to sign only one FA DB if we signed a FA NT isn’t artificial, it’s the salary cap. Heh, I suppose you could argue it’s currently artificial since it doesn’t currently exists in the absence of a CBA, but it will so we should plan accordingly. Anyway, back to the setup for the “devil we know vs. the devil we don’t” argument.
Shaun Cody – “devil we know vs. the devil we don’t”
I 100% agree that Cody’s contract is silly. It’s an Orlovsky type deal, too much money for someone who has never been more than mediocre and who will just be a backup (speaking of, I’m hoping that us tendering Leinart will mean Orlovsky’s contract is sent packing). Now, maybe I’m wrong, maybe they’ll try to use Mitchell and Cody in rotation, either with Cody as a 2-down run stopper (sad lol) or they’ll just genuinely rotate them (Cody was a penetrator in college….like 7 decades years ago). Regardless, I do think we overpaid. I’m just hoping part of that contract is some fat roster bonus in 2012 that makes the contract look bigger than it really is. If so, we could get out of paying it by cutting him should he remain the same ol’ Shaun Cody (he’s only 28, I’m not against the idea that Wade could make him a better player).
If we gave Cody a silly contract, Rick Smith would’ve surely given someone else an OC contract (OC=Over-Compensated or Orlovsky-Cody, your pick). Silly contract aside though, I’d rather have Cody over any other equally mediocre player because the coaching staff is at least very familiar with his deficiencies and can game plan accordingly. Maybe we could look at film to get a really good idea of the deficiencies of other 1.5 star/mediocre players, or maybe not. Regardless, we know Cody better. For that reason, and because I just don’t have much hope that we’d find a diamond in the rough, I’d rather have our lame duck than someone else’s lame duck.
DT vs DB argument
One other thing in this DT vs DB argument. I ended my last post with a joke that we can all be thankful for the 3-4 because it means that only 1 DT can disappoint us now instead of 2. It’s a joke, but it’s also true. The middle of our defense in a 4-3 was Okoye, Cody, and Ryans. In the 3-4, the middle of our defense will be Cody (let’s just assume he’ll start for this argument), Cushing, and Ryans. Even if Cushing isn’t his 2009 self and even if Ryans has lost half-a-step due to his injury (both of which are just pessimistic speculation), I’d still take the 3-4 middle over our 4-3 middle. Instant improvement in my opinion.
Our defensive backfield still remains a bucket of suck though. And now we have holes we HAVE to fill there (not just because of the suck) because Eugene Wilson was cut (hooray!) and Bernard Pollard and Jason Allen weren’t tendered. This means we need three DBs: 1 CB, 1 SS, and 1 CB/FS (depending on where Quin ends up). If you tell me I can have 2 upgrades in the secondary and an upgrade at NT OR 3 upgrades in the secondary and no upgrade at NT….I’ll take the 3 secondary upgrades without hesitation.
Final thoughts
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to finally have talent at the positional abyss we call DT, but in this offseason I’d much rather throw our cap space entirely at the defensive backfield. And it’s not like we had much cap space to begin with (3rd largest player payroll in the NFL last year if I’m not mistaken), though cuts to Apostrophe Davis and Ewwgene Wilson helped (crossing my fingers for Orlovsky). Finally, I’d argue that the DT draft class is much deeper than the Safety class (maybe even the CB class), so I could see the draft rather than free agency being the place where we add a piece of talent.
Yes, Cody’s contract was stupid, but that just means it was a bad deal by Rick Smith. However, I still think keeping Cody was the right answer versus allowing him to go and hoping we’ll make a splash in the FA DT market.
by La Voz on Mar 7, 2011 10:24 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I tend to agree with La Voz.
D-line was the one defensive element that was close to average last year. Given finite resources, I think we should go concentrating on upgrading our secondary first and foremost and then work on our lbs. The line needs improvement, but far less than the other parts of the defense.
Never use a metaphor, simile, or other figure of speech which you are used to seeing in print.
Never use a long word where a short one will do.
If it is possible to cut a word out, always cut it out.
Never use the passive where you can use the active.
Never use a foreign phrase, a scientific word, or a jargon word if you can think of an everyday English equivalent.
Break any of these rules sooner than say anything outright barbarous.
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by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 7, 2011 11:46 AM CST up reply actions
Especially in the 3-4
If your NT is getting shut out of plays, which happens to Cody regularly, then it’s guard on linebacker action. This will be compounded by Wade’s 1-gap system.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
I'll never buy the "devil" argument
That’s not a strategy: it’s an excuse. And if you know somebody isn’t good, and then you throw a contract at them – one you agree is abhorrent – that compounds the mistake, not excuses it.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
Also
You write arguments like a term paper, which I think is awesome :-)
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
by bigfatdrunk on Mar 7, 2011 2:04 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Wait until I start writing posts with econometric regressions...
It’s finals week at my grad school so my writing style is affected by term papers I’m actually doing. Hopefully not all of my posts will be so long-winded.
As for the “devil you know” argument, that’s fine that you don’t buy it, I understand the belief that surely there’s got to be a mediocre free agent DT better than Cody and cheaper than Cody (even one that has played SOME time in a 3-4). As I’ve said, I’m not sure one blah is better than another blah, and Smith probably would have overpaid anyway. We’ll agree to disagree. Or agree to sling feces at each other. Football shaped feces though….gotta keep training in the offseason, right?
I <3 economics and math
Deal it with all day.
In that spirit, it’s the substitution effect that bothers me the most. We neither have a valuation on Cody from a demand perspective, nor do we know the inventory. The good at hand really isn’t very good.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
But a bird in hand is worth two in the bush...
In the earlier post on BRB that talks about us resigning Cody, there’s a decent discussion of his merits there. His merit being that he’s disciplined and not outright terrible. In fact, there were games I noticed him not sucking. I agree we didn’t know his valuation, and accordingly may have overvalued him. Then again, maybe that’s what mediocre DTs will get in a shallow DT class, especially since both Cleveland and Denver are converting to 4-3s and have jettisoned their interior DL accordingly. There were 3 scenarios (roughly):
1) Make an early splash in the FA DT market. Let Cody walk. Tie up cap space that could’ve been used towards FA DBs.
2) Resign Cody, wait and see
3) Allow Cody to become a FA, try to make a splash in free agency, fail, and lose Cody only to resign some trash heap FA because the top FA DTs got better money or better teams with their competing contract offers.
There’s more scenarios of course, but those are three biggies. We went middle of the road, and I’m not disappointed by it. Still, I understand your argument is that we didn’t have to sign a big-name FA DT and could have still made an improvement by signing even just a marginally better DT than Cody for the same $ (or slightly more). Maybe you’re right, I tend to think not, but won’t discount the possibility.
As for my school, University of Denver, getting a MA in Global Finance, Trade, and Economic Integration (with a concentration in Econometric Forecasting). My undergrad was in Econ. What do you do that has you working with Econ and Math all day?
Starting up a mutual fund
I hope. The going has been bumpy, but I’m a one-man show.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
The Texans want Cody
what more do you need to know?
Inventory. I think that is what the draft is for this season…
I didn't do anything wrong!.... and, I won't do it again.
My thoughts on Cody...
Obviously in the minority with possibly La Voz and BryanOU812 –
I REALLY don’t want to like him… anything about him, but watching him play, I’m not disappointed with him. Again, I think it’s mainly because he’s not Jeff fuggin Zgonina, and I’m sure there are other guys better than him, but I don’t have a problem with him as being a player for my team.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
btw
What school? What focus?
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
Don't forget the part where he's not a 3-4 NT and never has been.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Mar 7, 2011 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Consider...
That any signing/re-signing at this point was most likely given the green-light by Wade Phillips. And isn’t he our savior now? It took him about three minutes of watching tape to hand out pink slips to Wilson, Pollard, and Diles, so he’s not afraid to cut dead weight. There’s good reason to complain about the dollar figure (but has Rick Smith ever not overpaid for somebody?), but the sheer fact that he’s still on the roster indicates that a very good defensive coordinator sees him as a better option than a bargain-bin free agent.
Very true, Cody has never been a 3-4 NT, but...
…isn’t Wade’s 3-4 NT more like a fatter 4-3 UT than a traditional 3-4 NT? Then again, Cody has never been an Up Tackle either (at least not since USC, if even there), soooo…damn. Hooray Earl Mitchell?
Not to mention.....
paying for one that has a history of only playing well in his contract season.
Just my $.02
Even duct tape can't fix stupid
If only the Texans could sign..
S Eric Weddle , CB Ike Taylor, and DTAubrayo Franklim. i would be happy with any of them coming to houston. oh and draft Quinn or Jones if on the board. Quinn first though. if not trade down.
by FLASH94 on Mar 6, 2011 9:54 PM CST via mobile reply actions
whats with the love for eric weddle?
i have not seen anything to merit this is the guy we should sign.
Versatile, intelligent, and better than any safety to play for this team since McCree/Coleman.
He was my favorite player in the 2007 draft besides AD and Sidney Rice. He’s just a solid defensive back.
Dream Texans Draft:
1. Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
2. Rahim Moore, FS, California-Los Angeles
3. Sione Fua, NT, Stanford
4. Casey Matthews, ILB, Oregon
5. Chykie Brown, CB, Texas
6. Jerrod Johnson, QB, Texas A&M
7. Chas Henry, P, Florida
We had good safeties
The Texans? When was this?
I am totally optimistic about the Texans new season - at least until the first of the 4 or 2 (if any) preseason games
by Barryfromtexas on Mar 7, 2011 2:06 PM CST up reply actions
There was a very brief window when our secondary might've been the strongest unit on the team.
Dunta Robinson and Aaron Glenn at the corner spots and Marlon McCree and Marcus Coleman at the safety spots. Nothing magical, but I think it had a huge part in winning us that Pittsburgh game where we set the record for worst offensive output in a winning effort.
Dream Texans Draft:
1. Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
2. Rahim Moore, FS, California-Los Angeles
3. Sione Fua, NT, Stanford
4. Casey Matthews, ILB, Oregon
5. Chykie Brown, CB, Texas
6. Jerrod Johnson, QB, Texas A&M
7. Chas Henry, P, Florida
Weddle is consistent. That's the key
We don’t need a bad ass, though that would be nice. He is consistent and doesnt get beat deep often, and can play the run well too.
Also let’s not get caught up is FS and SS. It doesn’t matter. We need 2 safeties that have the ability to cover AND play the run. If it is 2 FS’s that can both hit great.
Quin and weddle are both FS’s, but could play together very well IMO.
Another guy I like, for the fact he is not very expensive, I know him personally from college, and he would come Kick it with all of us in the offseason, is brodney pool
by AllenOU on Mar 7, 2011 9:42 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Weddle is more than just consistent
He’s a damn good football player. I’d love to grab him. And I’d be more than happy with Pool, as well.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
well look at it this way...
Considering we have Mario will probably be taking on 2 guys to his right and antonio Smith to the left with Connor Barwin and,or Mark Anderson at this point taking outside routes, how good does our nose really have to be?
Artificial Intelligence is no match for Natural Stupidity
Good enough to scare a QB
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
by The Night Owl on Mar 7, 2011 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
MSW
jus throwin a bone out there…would u guys be interested in signing mike sims-walker as a #2 WR??
Mike Sims-Walker?
Do you think he is any better than KW?How about James Jones as a possible FA pick up…
I would never judge a man by his skin,only by what jersey he has on.
I like the idea of Sims-Walker here
only if we don’t draft Julio Jones
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
by The Night Owl on Mar 7, 2011 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
Which I am still sacrificing a lamb for tonight
and every night leading up to the draft.
by theSpaceCityKid on Mar 7, 2011 11:03 AM CST up reply actions
James Jones yes, Sims-Walker meh
I like James Jones because he’s got speed, though I feel we’d be no worse of with Jacoby Jones. Both have consistency issues (i.e. drops). Sims-Walker is more consistent I feel, though I have to imagine that if WR-needy Jacksonville cut him then there’s something there to be concerned about. I also don’t get the impression that he’s a “stretch the field” kind of guy, which is what we need at our #2. I thought Dorin Dickerson showed some promise in that last game, especially on that catch out of bounds in the end zone (don’t remember the play exactly but I remember thinking “he’s fast” and “nice catch”). I’d look to the draft rather than the FA market for a receiver (unless we could keep Jacoby on the cheap, like, cheaper than Cody, lol).
either keep JJ
or go for a rookie.
I REALLY REALLY REALLY like torrey smith in the second round, or possibly jerrel jernigan.
I think people overrate james jones because of the super bowl run, but he is better than JJ, just not by very much.
scorindorin will be a player, but he isnt quite ready IMO.
i like him too from what i have read
but he is 6-5 and while still fast, is more of a possesion guy, no? I havent ever seen the guy play honestly, just read things on him…
all i know is i want a speed guy on that other side, either torrey smith or jerrel jernigan.
tell me more about baldwin
Jernigan is the guy
if we dont get Julio. Check out the YAC machine he is on youtube
by theSpaceCityKid on Mar 7, 2011 2:07 PM CST up reply actions
James Jones
Just has that run after the catch explosion that would help this offense.Lol a more bold statement a poor mans Andre Johnson?he put up better number then Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones as the packs 3rd option at receiver
I would never judge a man by his skin,only by what jersey he has on.
because they have NO running game
jacoby puts up similare numbers if he was there IMO.
I just think JJ and JJ are too much alike, so why not keep who you have.
All our free agency money needs to be spent on D, and we should draft a WR
Just has that jinxy feel, doesn't it?
I’d love to have Quinn there, though the whole brain tumor thing is kind of scary. Whenever I think “brain tumor,” I think Charles Whitman.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
yeah fuck that shit
he is fine.
that is a bad thought
i just got banned from MCM, havent attempted to post there since andre beat the fuck out of leprechaun….weird
join the club
i was banned shortly after when I went on to see how they felt about the beatdown and it was a bunch of idiots acting liek Andre should be kicked out of the league.
by theSpaceCityKid on Mar 7, 2011 2:09 PM CST up reply actions
Looks like you were banned about a month ago.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
Banned from MCM
- meh
I am totally optimistic about the Texans new season - at least until the first of the 4 or 2 (if any) preseason games
by Barryfromtexas on Mar 7, 2011 2:12 PM CST up reply actions
thats like being told you are too smart
for special ed
by theSpaceCityKid on Mar 7, 2011 2:14 PM CST up reply actions
We aren't saying
:)
I am totally optimistic about the Texans new season - at least until the first of the 4 or 2 (if any) preseason games
by Barryfromtexas on Mar 7, 2011 4:26 PM CST up reply actions
To be fair
It’s harder than getting banned from SB.
Never use a metaphor, simile, or other figure of speech which you are used to seeing in print.
Never use a long word where a short one will do.
If it is possible to cut a word out, always cut it out.
Never use the passive where you can use the active.
Never use a foreign phrase, a scientific word, or a jargon word if you can think of an everyday English equivalent.
Break any of these rules sooner than say anything outright barbarous.
-Orwell, Politics and the English Language
www.battleredblog.com
by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 7, 2011 11:19 PM CST up reply actions
How have they not banned me?
I go over there like once a month to remind them that finnegan is a dirty fucking leprechan cheap fuck who sucks
Is it better to live as a monster or die as a hero?
thats not what scares me
what scares me is when I look at one of those 7 round mock drafts and after the 2nd rd it has the Texans pickin no name players that none of us have even mentioned. THATS whats scary bc THATS really really realistic. We speculate on all of these players that would make good fits and then half are left on the board and we are left to trust Smithiak one mo’ again.
by theSpaceCityKid on Mar 7, 2011 2:20 PM CST up reply actions
Its just hard to think
“OOoo the Texans found a talent that NO ONE ELSE SAW!”
by theSpaceCityKid on Mar 7, 2011 3:29 PM CST up reply actions
Even guys who spend all their free time looking at draft stuff have a hard time learning about all the players in the draft
It’s basically impossible to figure out what will happen in a draft. That’s the reason teams have entire staffs of people who do nothing but scout. Drafting guys we’ve never heard of past the second round is no big deal IMO.
I have gotten to where I spend a lot less time pouring over draft stuff….just wait and see what happens and then see what’s out there on who we took.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
But then...
That’s one less avenue for un-funny half assed jabs at the team I claim to be a fan of…
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
Not sure if you have noticed but the team we root for has a problem with talent evaluation
just bc im a fan doesnt mean I have to act like the team I follow can do no wrong. When the team drafted Earl Mitchell, Daryl Sharpton and Garrett Graham there were players on the board that i was more familiar with that would have added depth the positions of need (S mostly) and they havent exactly proved me wrong with those picks after a year. I mean Mitchell was fuckin 3rd round pick and he is a situational, small framed, pass rushing DT. Im sorry but you will be hard pressed to convince me that the same value couldnt have been found in a later round.
by theSpaceCityKid on Mar 7, 2011 6:44 PM CST up reply actions
It was somewhat of a joke
seeing as I dont expect to know every single player the team drafts, and I agree with the notion that these things cannot possibly be predicted in the slightest (I bet you cant find one mock draft that had the Texans snagging Kareem Jackson in the first round) but thats just my point. Should we have? I know he wasnt a “no name” guy, just a 2nd rd prospect but the point is that you cant help but wonder why the no name guys are no name guys. When there are as many people as there are nowadays that do draft studies, it seems odd that we end up finding guys outside of the beaten path, do you know what i mean?
by theSpaceCityKid on Mar 7, 2011 6:48 PM CST up reply actions
How many of you would like to see damione lewis back?
yes he is old but he is a big guy too. not much talk about him.
I'd like to see him back../
In a very general assessment, he seemed to make some plays in limited action at the end of the season. Looked a bit lost at times, but when he wasn’t, seemed worthy of a roster spot.
Agree
Not wearing the huge NT fatsuit, but I thought he played as close to one of those as we’ve ever had, and was the closest resemblance to a 3-4 NT we had on the team. I was very happy with his signing, and get this… give credit to Rick Smith and his staff for finding him.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
Dunno...
I wanted to say he did a multi-year deal, so I wasn’t worried about it, but now I kinda am.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
Lewis is a FA this year
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/362/player?r=1
Who knows, maybe he only looked good because Bush decided to start calling Safety blitzes at the end of the season. Seemed to make a lot of people on the DL look good due to the confusion on the OL of the opponent.
My bet
they let him dip his toe in the FA pond to see what the nibbles might be, but bring him back if it makes sense financially.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
Forgive me if this is retarded and/or old news but did the Texans show any interest in Shaun Rogers?
He was on sportsradio610 in late February expressing interest in coming home to H-town. He signs with the Saints for $4M, reported to be $2M less than was offered by another team. Did the Texans have the opportunity to get SR for $4M only to decide not to make the deal? I don’t recall seeing any press release from the Texans on the subject. Anyone know?
It took the Astros 44 years to get to the Series, the Oilers-Texans are due to get to the big dance...Go Texans!!!!!
by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 7, 2011 7:10 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Don't Think Anyone Knows
I believe the majority of fans were in favor of the Texans signing Rogers, but there was never any word whether the Texans pursued Rogers or not.
Besides, who needs Shaun Rogers? Shaun Cody can play nose tackle.
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...
by Tim on Mar 7, 2011 8:11 PM CST up reply actions
Flagged
Oh, and guess what you see on pages 2-5 if you Google “tailgaters”? [twitches uncontrollably while stroking a football and a set of BBQ tongs and rocking back and forth in a seated fetal position in remote corner of the room]
Is it football season yet?
"Each day is better than the next" ~ Dom "Woogie" Woganowski
Don't believe so
krkenney did some leg-work after hearing about a Rogers to Houston rumor, but it turned out to be false. krkenney seems to be pretty darn thorough, so I’m going with him/her.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
Thx for the feedback, but this leaves me empty
Clearly S Rogers is not a perfect citizen, but IMHO the Texans missed a major opportunity to at least placate the fans by releasing a statement, even if it was fiction, that he was evaluated/considered but a deal could not be made. Yes I would rather be lied to that the Texans are trying to get better rather than see that they are merely aspiring for mediocrity. Cody > Rogers = Ridiculous.
It took the Astros 44 years to get to the Series, the Oilers-Texans are due to get to the big dance...Go Texans!!!!!
by oiler-texan diehard on Mar 8, 2011 8:09 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
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