How Much Longer Will The Texans Get Superstar Production Out Of Andre Johnson?
by riversmccown on Apr 6, 2011 2:04 PM CDT
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At the start of the 2011 NFL season, assuming they play it, Andre Johnson will be 30 years old. It will be his ninth season in the NFL, and hopefully he will overcome last season's ankle injuries and get to 16 games started again, because over time he's proven that him starting 16 games is a very, very, good thing for the Houston Texans.
But just how much longer will the Texans get this same kind of production from him? Superstar receivers do tend to head south production-wise after they hit 30. I know, I know...this is Andre Johnson we're talking about here. A beast. A freak of nature. Medical technology is advancing further and athletes are playing longer and better than they've ever been able to before.
Still, the question remains: how much longer can the Texans expect superstar production out of Johnson?
In an attempt to answer the query, I made a beeline right for Football Outsiders' new player pages, which now show a player's 10 top comparables (only the top one if you're not a subscriber though) in one, two, and three year increments. I, of course, went for three to try and get as much accuracy as possible.
Johnson's comps are, as you'd expect, extremely sexy. Torry Holt's 2003-2005 seasons are the top comparison, and another three-season stretch of Holt makes the Top 10 as well. Jerry Rice makes the list twice, as does Terrell Owens. Those six three-year stretches are flanked by one each from Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Jimmy Smith, and Joe Horn.
Holt's 2003-2005 seasons occurred when he was at roughly the same age that Johnson was, and his 2004-2006 seasons, which would be one ahead of Johnson's age, are the other comps on the list. Holt was productive through 2007, or 32 years old, before losing his speed and becoming a possession receiver. However, Holt and Johnson aren't really on the same blueprint physically. Holt was a 6'0", 190 pound burner while Johnson is listed at 6'3" and 219.
No. 2 comp Wayne would be at roughly the same age as Johnson from 2006-2008, but like Holt, he's more about speed and less about physicality. He's had two top flight seasons since then and will enter the 2011 season at 33. Harrison, like the other two, was much more slightly built than Johnson. The system identifies his 2001-2003 seasons as comparable to Johnson's last three, which would actually put him a year older than Johnson. From Age 30 on, Harrison wound up with five more stellar seasons before he eventually lost his boosters. I'm going to toss Horn and Smith off since they're the lowest two players on the list and didn't really start producing until they turned 28 or so.
Rice, ageless wonder, had comparable seasons from 1989-1991 and 1990-1992, during his prime. Rice turned 30 in 1992, would go on to have four more great seasons before getting hurt, then after that put up six more 800+ yard seasons (3 of which were 1000+). I don't think any of us is expecting Andre Johnson to last THAT long, though it would be nice.
Could it be, in a stroke of irony, that Johnson's most comparable modern player is Owens? The two might have different personalities, but they do have near-exact physical attributes. The years Owens was compared for were the 2000-02 and 2001-03 seasons, and Owens hit 30 during that 2003 season. TO continued to post superstar numbers when healthy through his Age 34 season, and though he will likely find job offers hard to come by as long as he keeps opening his mouth, he's still a productive player today at 37.
Looking at these comparisons made me feel a lot better about the Texans' future with Johnson and the contract they handed out to him. The two closest comps on his list, all things considered, were Rice and Owens. Even if Johnson only has Owens' end-of-career wind down, there's no reason (barring injury) to expect a drastic slowdown any time in the next few years.
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I hope just cause he deserves it!
For no other reason than that he has been here through hell and back he desreves them to not suck before he retires…
by Joseph Tramonte on Apr 6, 2011 12:08 PM CDT reply actions
I want him to break some Jerry Rice records....
Though not the TD record, that is just ridonculous.
We are all important to each other, and because of this we have a purpose. - Daniel Black (Yes, that's me)
I think you can expect best WR in the game type performance for no more than 2-3 years
I think he can be very productive until around 35ish. He’s smart route runner who will find ways to get open even if he does lose top gear. He’ll be able to use his big strong body to his advantage so he will be still be effective underneath and across the middle even after his ability to run by people goes away too. The biggest unknown is injury. Are any of his recent injuries troubles degenerative? He’ll need to get lucky to avoid major injuries if he’s going to play well into his thirties.
The other factor will be want too. AJ is competitive as hell, but how long is he going to want to take the punishment? He’s not a fame whore like T.O. or Favre so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him just walk away quietly in the night when he’s had enough. I can’t see him being the kind of guy who hangs on way past his prime just to stay in the spotlight. If he stays healthy he should have a chance to break some records….so maybe that will be thing that motivates him to stick around even after he has dropped off.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
by papabear on Apr 6, 2011 12:56 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I think the guy to compare him to is Owens
Knock his personality all you want, but TO does work hard to stay in shape and perform. I don’t like thinking about the end of Johnson’s career, but with his work ethic and competitive spirit…..I am hopeful he can follow the TO model of production.
"Lord, beer me strength."
What a wonderful comparison
Spot on
If he can be the same physically as TO I like his chances.
This was such a wonderful blog idea!!!!!
by AllenOU on Apr 6, 2011 1:15 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Right!? Rivers is a man of the people!!
’Dre will be a force in the NFL for another 5-7 years easily. I truly believe Julio Jones extends his career by at least a season or two tho.
by theSpaceCityKid on Apr 6, 2011 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions
I like how you assume we will draft JJ
We must have been related in a past life.
Or maybe we are Eskimo brothers?
by AllenOU on Apr 6, 2011 1:43 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Agreed
I was thinking the same thing. I think he’s got another 3 seasons as an elite WR, then probably another 3 of just pretty damn good.
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
Eskimo brothers of course!!!
Dont you remember???! It was after the Rosnecopter game awhile back.
by theSpaceCityKid on Apr 6, 2011 1:49 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
That's not his sister.
That’s bfd himself.
Never use a metaphor, simile, or other figure of speech which you are used to seeing in print.
Never use a long word where a short one will do.
If it is possible to cut a word out, always cut it out.
Never use the passive where you can use the active.
Never use a foreign phrase, a scientific word, or a jargon word if you can think of an everyday English equivalent.
Break any of these rules sooner than say anything outright barbarous.
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by tehGrindCrusher on Apr 7, 2011 2:02 AM CDT up reply actions
It has been claimed by team doctors that his 2010 high ankle sprain is going to be a degenerative condition, and that he will begin to drastically lose a step within 2-3 years.
Even if that were true, I could see him continuing to be quite productive after that point for a few extra years. He’s so reliable and consistent, especially in this offense or anything similar. As long as we favor crossing routes and timing patterns, in general, Andre would still be valuable.
I agree with the T.O. comparison, physically, but Andre is a step above due to his focus and dedication.
Crazy to think what T.O.‘s career numbers would have looked like by now, if he’d only applied himself more. They’re through the roof as it stands. And to his credit, I think we’ve seen a much more mature T.O. over the last year or two. He’s not the player he was, but I agree that he can still play. Maybe he plays here next season?
"As an admin here... I really, really, hate you people. H8T!" -bigfatdrunk
Link? Source?
Re: Doctors
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
I believe I saw this on BRB actually
try the archives for Jan/Feb… and perhaps it was a write-up by Jake?…
"As an admin here... I really, really, hate you people. H8T!" -bigfatdrunk
wondered about that too
Ankle sprains tend to make you more vulnerable to another. That’s different than degenerative. Dominic what’s his name had a degenerative condition with his knee. If the doctors are saying that it would make me a very sad panda….which is why I think I would remember that.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
yeah I think it concerned the knee being degenerative as a result
but I also remember reading that they were getting conflicting reports depending on the doctor
I’m going to look around for that story tonight
"As an admin here... I really, really, hate you people. H8T!" -bigfatdrunk
and I am relieved that my memory had failed me on this
see the link, I left it below…
"As an admin here... I really, really, hate you people. H8T!" -bigfatdrunk
if you don't want to click the link, here's a tidbit:
… but there were some interesting takes on the injuries to Mario, DeMeco, and Barwin, also.
Anyhow, on to Andre’s injury via Alan Burge:
“Dr. Kenneth R. First of the All American Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Institute is a weekly visitor on SportsRadio610. While visiting this morning with Marc and John, Dr. First provided a quick summation of key Texans players injured during the season and their outlook for next season.”
on Andre Johnson: “There’s a lot of concern because his ankle got worse and they’re going in arthroscopically to remove loose particles,” said First. “I’m not that concerned about Andre in the short term, meaning next season, he should be fine. But when you start cleaning out the ankle joint of loose particles it means there’s a degenerative process. Look at Brett Favre who had three ankle scopes over his career and by the end of his career it became a very stiff, sore problematic ankle. Long term, not good for Andre. Short term, he should be great next year.”
"As an admin here... I really, really, hate you people. H8T!" -bigfatdrunk
Interesting. Thanks for digging that back up.
I hadn’t thought there was much of a correlation between high ankle sprains and long-term ankle woes. I wonder if Andre made it worse by playing on it.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | SB Nation Houston | Battle Red Blog
He absolutely did.
The human body is obviously not indestructable. We cannot expect an adult ankle to be regenerative, and sadly this doctor in fact claimed it was degenerative.
The question here is probably: when will it finally start to affect him, and at that point, how much will it affect him?
I’m certainly not a doctor though, just reading between the lines, and I would love to learn more about this.
"As an admin here... I really, really, hate you people. H8T!" -bigfatdrunk
seems it's a degenerative ankle; and not involved with the knee
"As an admin here... I really, really, hate you people. H8T!" -bigfatdrunk
I thought it was pretty well known
that In his prime, TO had a work ethic matched by few in the league. I actually remember seeing something on him that showed him jumping the fence of the team facilities because it was so early no one was there yet when he got there to work out.
How you like the new sig by the way?
"But what are you supposed to do? You’re the Space City Kid, after all!"
-Cut Block
by theSpaceCityKid on Apr 6, 2011 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions
work ethic and being an idiot
are two different things
i think TO has always worked hard, but takes plays off. Andre never does, though he probably should sometimes
In what sense was he a workhorse?
With his physique and his fame/pocketbook? I’ll buy that.
With the development of his craft? I don’t think so. He was normally very mistake prone. The guy always seemed to be distracted, especially on the field. T.O. was regularly mistake prone. What a waste of elite talent.
"As an admin here... I really, really, hate you people. H8T!" -bigfatdrunk
Ask any player or coach and they will all say the same thing
TO works extremely hard to stay in shape and remain a top tier receiver. His attitude and personality may be controversial but his work ethic has never been questioned by any credible sources that I’m aware of.
Personally I hate the guy, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t work hard at what he does. And if you’re planning on using dropped passes as a rebuttal, don’t bother. That only proves that he’s not perfect, but in no way does it prove he’s lazy. I forget to sign off on work orders sometimes but that doesn’t mean I don’t work hard.
.02
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
I think you guys are talking about two different things
Working hard to take care of your body and be in tip top shape and being a “good locker room guy” or always being focused on the field are two different things.
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-Bob McNair
exactly
My first comment was in reply to theSpaceCityKid “….In his prime, TO had a work ethic matched by few in the league.”
I agree with that because the complaints about TO have never been over a lack of work ethic. From everything I’ve heard he works extremely hard.
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
I love being wrong
Ive gotten so good at it too!
Thanks for the article Rivers, the FO statistics were very enlightening and gives me hope.
we only need him for 4 years to win 3 superbowls anyway
Great post!
I was just wondering about this very issue. Great info as usual and you even made me feel better!
"Ignorance is bliss. Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions." Stephen Colbert
by Deepstillbluewaters on Apr 6, 2011 3:40 PM CDT reply actions
oops
I meant to include a Thank You in there, Rivers.
"Ignorance is bliss. Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions." Stephen Colbert
by Deepstillbluewaters on Apr 6, 2011 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions
One thing to note about AJ
Those other comparable receivers all had significant playoff runs in their careers that resulted in more games played. Up to this point AJ has no extra post season games played, thus more time in the offseason to heal and work out.
I dunno how much that might extend his career, if any, but it could add a year or two if we’re lucky. Of course, if we’re lucky he’ll start getting those playoff games soon so it may equal out.
I'm a man!! I'm forty!!
Anywhere from 2 - 7 years depending on how his wheels hold up
I don’t know the status of Dre’s ankles, but can say from personal experience that high ankle sprains are a degenerative condition. Not so sure about knees. At best in 2011 he is slightly more susceptible to an ankle tweak than he was last year. He stays in tip top shape, but ankle (& knee) sprains can result from bad luck, blind side hits, crappy turf, etc. Rice-like longevity is the synergistic result of hard work and good fortune. Dre’ can only control the former.
This is precisely why I think if Julio is on the board we cannot afford to pass him up. He will benefit from Dre’s tutelage and carry the torch after he loses a step. We HAVE to have some playoff appearances before Dre loses his game. It makes me sad to think about the possiblity of Dre never seeing the postseason with the Texans.
It took the Astros 44 years to get to the Series, the Oilers-Texans are due to get to the big dance...Go Texans!!!!!
by oiler-texan diehard on Apr 6, 2011 10:29 PM CDT reply actions
I don't know about degenerative....
but I do know that once you sprain your ankle, you are more susceptible to another sprain. It took me 6 weeks of being in a cast and then several months of wearing boots and sneakers that supported the ankle better before I quit spraining my damn ankle on expansion joints in the parking lot.
What started it was a very severe sprain playing HS soccer. Probably should have had a cast then or at the very least immobilized, but I taped it and kept playing…..and kept playing backyard soccer and basketball and football and spraining it every damn time because I didn’t tape it then. This went on for 5 or 6 yrs. In between those severe sprains I would quite literally sprain that ankle if I stepped wrong on a pebble on smooth concrete. Finally fractured a bone playing a pickup basketball game because I sprained it so bad one of the ligaments actually pulled on the bone so hard it fractured. (How the doc explained it to me anyway) And I am by no means even a semi-pro athlete, so I can imagine what AJ is putting his ankles through every game, even taped.
Just my $.02
Even duct tape can't fix stupid
by txknight on Apr 7, 2011 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I was grimacing just reading that, reccing
I didn't do anything wrong!.... and, I won't do it again.
I know how you feel txknight, I've sprained my ankles more times than I can count
Every time those ligaments are overextended, they weaken a little; similar to a rubber band.
Several years ago I had a similar fracture experience by just stepping on an uneven surface (carelessly in the dark), ankle rolls rapidly outward, and metatarsal snaps in two. I was lucky that it stayed aligned and healed OK without surgery. Just a boot for about 6 weeks.
Staying in great shape like Dre’ does decreases the chances of sprains, but there is no rehab exercise that can restore original strength to ligaments that have been overextended (sprained). Just have to hope that Dre stays lucky.
It took the Astros 44 years to get to the Series, the Oilers-Texans are due to get to the big dance...Go Texans!!!!!
by oiler-texan diehard on Apr 7, 2011 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions
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