How Many Wins Will It Take To Win The AFC South In 2011?

Don’t get me wrong, the Texans have plenty of problems of their own, but with Wade Phillips coming on, I think that they’ve gained ground on the rest of the division this offseason already.

Is that a faint sign of optimism? From someone on the staff that doesn’t have DC in his screen name? Madness.

I do think the Jaguars and Titans will be 3 and 4. It’s hard not to think that for the reasons you pointed out. Jacksonville could rise up again, especially if they improve their secondary and receiving corps in free agency, but I can’t tell if they’re building for later or winning now.

I know you’re not supposed to doubt Indy. Every year someone says they’re vulnerable they go out and flex their muscle. However, they are hitting 30+…and, like Dallas showed us last season, sometimes age just hits out of nowhere. I won’t doubt Indy as they’ve earned that respect and expectation of winning a lot. That said, they’re not the 12-14 win juggernaut that we once knew which is why I went with 11….showing respect with a hint of optimism.

But unfortunately the Texans are slowly doing so as well.
Schaub is already 30, which is not much to be worried about, but when the season begins Andre and Kevin Walter will both be 30 too.
Not a pleasant thought.

Indy has the oldest roster, and two rookie offensive linemen to train from the draft. Neither of those bode well for protecting Peyton. Unless we are missing some key component in the analysis, and they trade like mad during a short FA period, they are losing the war of attrition.

Jacksonville is in shambles rebuilding mode. Del Rio won’t be employed by mid season if they play like they did last year. There’s no reason to think they will be any better based on who’s returning and who they drafted. My guess is 3-5 at the mid point and breaking news of an interim head coach.

BESFs are in shambles. Tossing Fisher and VY doesn’t make a lot of sense. Bud should have picked a side in that fight and stuck with his man. Then again, that’s why Satan is who he is. This team will take their place at the bowels of the division for years to come, which is unfortunate for Chris Johnson who will zig, zag his way into irrelevance as a result.

Texans have two to three years of peak performance time based on health of their best players, so it really is DO IT NOW time. In three years we’ll have way too many of the stars on the other side of their healthiest age curve and be heading into rebuilding mode.

2011 best guess for the division:

11-5 Texans
9-7 Colts
7-9 Jags
5-11 BESFs

We also go 10-6, but wildcard teams are 11-5, so we miss out.

Pitt and Nawlins are just awful matchups for us, and Miami and Oakland are far from gtd wins.

Part of me hopes for 6-10 so we can clean house, but the other part would kill for the opportunity to get destroyed in a playoff game

We also go 10-6, but wildcard teams are 11-5, so we miss out.

Pitt and Nawlins are just awful matchups for us, and Miami and Oakland are far from gtd wins.

Part of me hopes for 6-10 so we can clean house, but the other part would kill for the opportunity to get destroyed in a playoff game

and they are the team to beat so yeah 11 wins.

…so I just guessed that 10 wins gets the division. Not all that logical I know, but how far off will I be?

Seyton Manning has dominated the division for almost a decade now (i think) and I don’t expect this year to be any different. Every year it seems like they are losing more and more pieces and yet they continue to win. As long as Fivehead is in the lineup they will continue to win the division. With that being said, if the Texans truly improve on every facet of their game they will make the wildcard with 10 wins.

So I say 11 wins.

This division race is going to come down to one thing IMO. The defense that most improves from last year.

The AFC South had probably the worst collection of defenses in the NFL.

In overall D the Texans were 30th, the Jags 28th, the Titans 26 and the Colts at 20th. The winner of the division will probably have the best defense.

Despite the Texan ground game last year I’d still nudge the Colts offense ahead of the Texans simply based on their ability to pass it. Then the Jags offense followed by the Titans, whose hole at QB is going to hold the entire team back. So our defense is going to have to be the difference in the 2 Colts game.

If the Texans pass rush is as good as we’re hoping we might actually be able to neutralize Manning. With the Colts running game being non-existent the past few years I expect the Colts to try to establish a ground game this year behind those new O-lineman they drafted.Especially after the recent surgery Manning had. The problem with them (as always) is the lack of defense. If the Texans can force Manning to win the game himself this new defense will (hopefully) keep him in check with improved secondary play and a better pass rush.

The other two teams will be all about stopping the run.

Overall this division seems to have gotten weaker (at least based on last year). 11 wins might not have won it a few years ago but now that seems to be about what the best any of the 4 teams could hope to achieve. I see no one in the division winning more than 12 games this coming season.

As usual with the Texans these past 3 seasons if they win more than 3 division games they are in the playoffs. I have them winning 4 which should put them over the top. Maybe 5 but that’s to optimistic for me right now.

Our offense either slept walked through the first half and ignited for a crazy come back, or started out strong and failed to deliver the killing blow. “Play 60” just wasn’t their theme. I sure hope the hell they come out more aggressive this year and finish games.