Wow - no that was a beating. Week one was possibly the worst week I've ever had predicting NFL games. Whether it was underestimating the effect of new head coaches, Jim Harbaugh and Hue Jackson, or putting too much value on home field advantage (Kansas City, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and Denver), I was absolutely off. Of course, in today's NFL, week one is always a crapshoot. Hopefully, we'll do a little better this week.
Picks appear in bold.
Chicago at New Orleans (-6.5)
Call me stubborn, but even after an impressive win over the Falcons, I'm still not sold on the Bears. In this game, I just can't believe they'll be able to score enough to keep up with the Saints. Even without Marques Colston, Drew Brees has a big day.
Kansas City at Detroit (-7.5)
If the Chiefs thought they had a hard time contending with the Bills passing game, wait until they get a load of Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew. Kansas City relies on their running game, and from what I saw of the Lions' run defense last week, I have a hard time believing that they'll be able to do so against Detroit.
Jacksonville at New York Jets (-8.5)
Ummm, I'm really not comfortable giving up all of these points in the first three games, but I can't see the Jags doing anything effectively against the Jets, whether on offense or defense. Also, I don't think Rex Ryan was too happy with some of the things he saw in the Dallas game, so I think New York will come out plenty motivated.
Oakland at Buffalo (-3)
The Bills took Kansas City completely out of their game when they jumped out to a big lead and didn't allow them to simply line up and pound the football. I think they'll be able to do something similar against the Raiders. Also, you can never go wrong going against a west coast team travleing all the way across the country to play a game at a time they would normally be sleeping.
Arizona at Washington (-3)
You can simply apply the same rule from above to this game. I think these two teams are evenly matched, but I like the Redskins because they're at home and have the better defense. However, I have the right to claim insanity for not taking the "Rex Grossman factor" into account. You know, his inate ability to single-handedly destroy a team and its chances of winning a game.
Baltimore (-5.5) at Tennessee
I keep hearing everyone talking about the Ravens having a letdown because of the emotion and effort used last week against Pittsburgh. Two things: 1) they're an experienced enough team to where that doesn't affect them as much, 2) even if they did have a subpar game, they can still beat the Titans by double digits.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (-14)
This one's pretty simple: the Steelers do not like to be embarrased. They were terrible against the Ravens and I see them coming back against an undermanned Seahawks' team in a big way.
Green Bay (-10) at Carolina
As impressive as Cam Newton looked last week, Dom Capers' defense will make him look impressively bad. In addition to facing a more potent pass rush, he won't have the open receivers he had last week. The Panthers will try to run, but won't be able to when they're down by 20 at half.
Tampa Bay (+3) at Minnesota
From the movement of the line this week, I can't believe that more people haven't jumped on this one. Unfortunately, Donovan McNabb's performance proves what I've been saying for a year - he's well past his prime and declining quick. On the other hand, LeGarrette Blount will have a big day when the Bucs recommit themselves to the run.
Cleveland (-1.5) at Indianapolis
I saw how bad the Colts' run defense was first-hand last week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns threw the ball less than 15 times on Sunday. If you have Peyton Hillis in your fantasy league, start him, sit back, and watch the points pile up.
Dallas (-3) at San Francisco
Let's put it this way, if the Cowboys can't beat the 49ers by more than three points, even if it is on the road, they have a lot more problems than I think they did. This one shouldn't be close at any time after the first quarter.
Houston (-3) at Miami
I've really struggled with this one all week. I liked what I saw from Chad Henne last week against the Pats. He looked confident and very in control of the offense. In addition, that unblemished record against Miami has to end sometime for the Texans, right? In the end, though, I like the Texans because they have an extra day of rest and have a better all around offense than New England, which ran roughshod all over the Dolphins.
San Diego (+7.5) at New England
When I saw this line, I had to fire on the Chargers. I don't think they'll win, but if the Patriots gave up 24 points and 488 yards to the Dolphins, I can only imagine how much they'll surrender to Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, Antonion Gates and company.
Cincinnati (+4) at Denver
I just have no confidence in the Broncos and Kyle Orton right now. The Bengals have a pretty good defense and a good running back, Cedric Benson, for their young quarterback to rely on. Right now, Denver's defense is garbage and Orton isn't a good enough quarterback to carry his team to a win.
Philadelphia (-2.5) at Atlanta
Both of these teams, which had huge expectations heaped on them before the season, looked decent to downright terrible in week one. In this one, I think the Eagles have a huge advantage in the matchup between their wideouts and the Falcons' secondary. Also, don't think for a second that Mike Vick wouldn't like to come back to Atlanta and beat up on the home team.
St. Louis at New York Giants (-6)
Even if they were fully healthy, I wouldn't have given the Rams much of a chance in this game, but with a finger injury to Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson doubtful to play because of a bad quad, their chances went from slim to none.
Last Week: 5-10-1