The Great Wideout Debate: Part One
After re-watching the Texans-Bengals and Texans-Ravens playoff games on my DVR, I have firmly come to a conclusion that no doubt many in Texan nation also share - we need another true wideout. I'm not talking about a burner, a return man hybrid, or a 6"6' red zone monster who is only useful for catching jump balls. I'm talking about a straight up honest to goodness Andre incarnate that can help soften defenses and take over the receiving corps once 80 starts slowing down.
However, considering the majority of our free cap space this year will go to Arian, Mario, and which ever offensive lineman wants a gold-encrusted yacht, we probably won't be able to land anyone of significance in free agency. That leaves the draft. So, in the spirit of early 2012 season discussion I will be writing up a series of posts about different ways we can acquire certain WR talents that I have kept my eye on this year. Each of these posts will contain polls about which option/strategy/player is more favorable, and every week the winner of the previous poll will face two more receiving options available in this years draft. Sound good? good.
To kick things off, the first two prospects I have chosen to cover are Justin Blackmon and Alshon Jeffery.
Scenario 1: Trade two first round picks and a 4th and/or 5th this year to move up the draft and grab Justin Blackmon from Tampa's 5th spot.
Blackmon should still be on the board at number five because the Colts will in all likelihood take Luck, the Rams and the Vikings will grab the best tackles they can get, and Cleveland will (hopefully) take RG3 at the number four spot. Tampa could use an upgrade at receiver, but not so much that they are looking to take Blackmon in the top 5. The Buccs have much more pressing needs on defense, which leads me to believe they will take a DB. They will also place a lot of value in the wealth of picks we give up considering they basically need an entire re-build under their new coaching staff. I can see this deal getting done fairly easily if presented. We get Blackmon, they get a nice base of draft picks to build with. Everybody wins.
Why Justin Blackmon? He is the complete package. He's big and physical enough to compete for jump balls (and usually wins), he's fast enough to get behind a defense off a good sluggo, and he's studious enough to use a DB's tendencies against them on a regular basis. His hands are as reliable as anyone else in the NFL and he has no off the field issues to speak of. If there was ever a receiver I know would be successful in his first season coming out of this draft, it would be Justin Blackmon.
That being said, there is one advantage that Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter have over Blackmon, and that is blocking ability. The OSU system was an absolute aerial circus, and Blackmon rarely had run blocking duties. Do I think he could do it? Probably. Will he as effective at cracking a backside linebacker as K-Dubs? Not so sure. I don't think his unproven blocking capabilities will impact his usefulness to this team that much, but I could see a case being made against the pick if it turns out he can't stonewall DB's as well as Jones or Walter.
Scenario II: Trade Jacoby for a 4th or 5th round pick to free up a little cap space, and draft Alshon Jeffery with the 26th overall pick.
Unless Jeffery turns in an amazing combine he should be available by pick 26. QB's, DB's, pass rushers and offensive linemen will be the name of the game in the first round, so I doubt anyone takes a receiver besides Blackmon in the top 20.
Why Alshon Jeffery? He has great hands, size, and physicality. His run blocking is terrific because he has the strength to stand up almost anyone short of a defensive end, and he sustains his blocks well. I think he would fit well into this system as someone who can fight through press coverage on the outside against smaller corners, and especially be able to block those corners and safeties to allow Foster to get the edge.
Unfortunately, despite his great physicality he does have a couple of athletic drawbacks. Jeffery lacks that "extra gear", and he struggles to get open deep down field against any corner that is above average. He also apparently showed up to training camp last season a little fat and out of shape, which put a lot of question marks on his work ethic. His route running is between average and poor, and he fails to separate a lot of the time. Sometimes he can be seen jogging and trying to use his hands to create space rather than just turning on a burst to get behind someone. It's a bad habit he needs to break, and I think a little conditioning will go a long way in getting him to sustain speed through his routes rather than relying on strictly strength and his vertical.
I do think Jeffery can be a very good receiver in the NFL, but that entirely relies on the coaching and training staff preparing him to be a professional. He needs to lose a little weight to get sub 4.5 speed and work on separation technique. And by work on, I mean practice every day. If his route running does not improve he will be no better than what we have now. However, despite all of Alshon's faults he does have incredible upside considering his pure physical gifts. I'm sure my opinion on him will be updated when we get to see him at the combine, but for now I'm somewhere between optimistic and hesitant.
So BRB, there you have it. You have your choice between mortgaging half the draft and Jacoby Jones for Blackmon or trading Jacoby to save money and picking up Alshon Jeffery in the late first round. What would you want more? Stay tuned for future write ups including wide outs Michael Floyd, Nick Toon, Dwight Jones, and Ryan Broyles among others.
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well thought out and very interesting
i would take the blackmon trade in a heart beat, but something tells me thats a tad bit out of reach. not sure if i would want jeffery. part of that stems from his poor route running and part of the stems from his lack of that extra gear you talked about.
personally, id like to see Mohamad Sanu or Nick Toon. i think Sanu would be a perfect fit in our system- runs crisp routes, has great hands, and can run block really well. hey may not be as athletically gifted as blackmon or jeffery, but he seems to be the more rounded receiver.
Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind.
Albert Einstein, "Science, Philosophy and Religion: a Symposium", 1941
I've seen some clips of him online
And I plan to watch a couple games of his in full so I can get a better grasp of his abilities. I’ve watched about 6-7 games each of Blackmon and Jeffery this season, which is why I wrote about them first. That being said, I hear great things about Sanu and his scouting reports are all overwhelmingly positive. Should make for a fun watch.
I won't argue the need for a WR or the analysis of the talent but your trade ideas have a few gaping holes.
No way Tampa gives up the 5 spot for our 1st and our 3 and 4, or even Indy’s 3&4 if we got them. Draft value chart
Not really knowing what we have in our draft arsenal at the moment, theoretically we would need to trade all our picks at 26 plus JJ and someone else to get a 5 spot value. Plus no way we get a 3rd for JJ. We’ll be lucky to get a low 4 or a 5th if anything which is why we’ll probably see him in camp next summer.
Also, with teams like Wash and Mia in the top 10 spots and needing a QB you’ll probably see some movement amongst the 10 spots as they shoot for RGIII since they won’t have to give up as much to move up.
Alcohol is necessary so that a man can have a good opinion of himself, undisturbed by the facts.
This
I don’t think Alshon’s going to be around at 26. I think he’s going to be the second WR drafted. I think NFL teams are going to remember the incredible year he had two seasons ago and understand that he lost his QB and star RB this season.
by chuckydawgyall on Jan 16, 2012 5:35 PM CST up reply actions
The Important Question is
Will anyone give us a 3rd/4th pick for Jacoby? I am not so hopeful.
As long as we get rid of him and clear cap space I don't care what we get for him
Not having on the roster is payment enough
by SoCalTexan on Jan 16, 2012 8:39 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I doubt Jacoby has any real trade value.
And I just don’t think you trade up unless you’re eying a quarterback. Take a look at Atlanta; they thought they were one player away, traded their entire draft to get him, yet they didn’t win their division and got bounced early in the playoffs.
I’m certainly not opposed to Jeffery if he’s available (though I still think OG is a bigger need). I realize most are pining for deep speed, but a big red-zone target who can break tackles is hard to pass up (Kenny Britt comes to mind). With Schaub, we’re pretty damn good at moving the ball between the 20s. It’s just a matter of giving him target who can beat any DB to the ball in the end zone. If he’s not available though, I’d lean towards OG in the first and look for a speedy WR who can make an impact in the return game in round 2.
by Nashmeister on Jan 16, 2012 5:41 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
A WR *without* downfield speed is NOT what we need...
I worry about first-round wide receivers who lack game-breaking speed (Crabtree). Not that speed is what makes a receiver first round material (Heyward-Bey), but if you’re going to spend such a high pick then you might as well shoot for WR1 material (Hakeem Nicks).
I think Blackmon could be taught to block. Hell, we taught Jacoby to block. Jacoby-bashing aside, remember that block he had against the Bengals that allowed Foster to go in for the long TD run? You think Jacoby came out of Lane College blocking like that? HA! Blackmon, physical specimen that he is, can be taught to block sufficiently.
Now, that said, I don’t think our 1st, 3rd, and 4th will get us up to the 5th spot. In fact, per the Draft Pick Trade Value chart (http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php), we’d basically have to give up this year’s 1st and 3rd PLUS next year’s 1st to move up to #5 to get Blackmon. Might be able to get away with a 4th instead of a 3rd in that scenario, but regardless, we’re still talking about giving up a 1st next year. Might still be worth it, but that’s a helluva price.
I'd pay that for Blackmon
The difference between us and Atlanta is that we were better than Atlanta while a good portion of our most important pieces were injured. WR2 literally is the only true dire piece we need, and I would pay two consecutive 1st rounders to get it if I were Rick Smith.
Despite the high price, I tend to agree...
Looking at our roster, I don’t see too many positions of high need, which to me is a position where a starter needs to be improved. The only two positions where I’d say we need starter improvement is at WR (not WR1 of course) and NT. And to me, Cody and Mitchell didn’t seem to be outright liabilities, so WR is in my opinion our top priority.
Blackmon is WR1 material, no doubt. And by the time he plays out his rookie contract, Andre Johnson will likely have retired, meaning we’ll be able to afford the massive contract we hope he will have earned and deserved by that time.
Hell, imagine a 2WR, 2TE set that involves Johnson, Blackmon, Daniels, and Casey/Dreesen. That, plus Foster in the backfield, would make the Patriot’s offense look downright pedestrian.
I’m having inappropriate physiological reactions in a public place to that very thought so I’ll end my post now.
by La Voz on Jan 16, 2012 5:54 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I can't even imagine that jumbo set's capabilities
Andre/Blackmon split wide. Foster in the backfield with Casey at FB/motioned to TE. Daniels working the seems.
drool
No way in heck Blackmon is avalible at 5. There is a good chance either Rams or cleveland Take him. They both have young QB’s they like and they want to surrond with talent.
Both have terrible offensive lines. With the wealth of WR talent this year I don't think they will pass up on Kalil and Reiff
There are far less good tackles this year than wide outs, so they are coming in at a premium.
neither team has a wealth of WR. The rams had two late round wide recievers, Amendola(a lot like Walter), and an aging LLoyd. Cleveland has Massaquoi and Robiskie. Robiskie is garbage and Massaquoi is no Blackman. This guy will be monster no way he makes it to #5.
Ponder has Harvin who is a stud in his own right, as well as Jenkins who is a decent number 2
What he doesn’t have is time to throw the ball. As for the Rams, Fisher is starting from scratch, and will want to build from the trenches out. You don’t go draft a skill position player if you have one of the worst pass protecting lines in the history of football. They might want blackmon, but neither can afford to ignore their o lines. If they want a receiver, they might go try to grab Colston or VJax.
mohamed sanu..
i say take him with our original pick.
what are the chances we could sign and trade mario williams for a high draft pick?
Why would we trade Mario?
The whole point of getting rid of Jacoby is freeing up cap space to keep mario and just drafting Jacoby’s replacement.
keeping mario for the full year is basically impossible isnt it?
givin our cap space and need to franchise foster, then resign chris myers and need to have cap room for all our FAs next year. id say mario is the least of our needs with the emergence of reed and barwin.
not sure how much cap space jacoby frees up but i guess i didnt take into consideration that cutting jacoby gives us the room for mario
by TexansAddict on Jan 16, 2012 6:38 PM CST up reply actions
thats discussion for another thread tho..
was just curious what we could get for him since we were talkin about the draft
by TexansAddict on Jan 16, 2012 6:39 PM CST up reply actions
I have confidence Rick can get it done
Kubes has already expressed a desire to keep the entire defensive squad together, and from what I can tell this team is pissed off and wants to make a run next year. I could see plenty of players adjusting to front or back loaded contracts (whichever is necessary) to keep everyone together and get a ring. But yes, as you said, that’s a discussion for another thread, and I’m sure there will be plenty.
of coarse..
the team would have to have the cap space and a big need for a pass rusher. not sure what teams fit that description.
by TexansAddict on Jan 16, 2012 6:35 PM CST up reply actions
Tampa/Carolina/Buffalo/Seattle all come to mind
But I would rather not Mario go anywhere but here next year.
Sign and trades don't happen in the NFL
no benefit to re-signing with original team, so there’s no reason he wouldn’t just sign with another team for same price
Jacoby Jones has as much trade value as Stacey Mack.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter | Football Outsiders | Battle Red Blog
by riversmccown on Jan 16, 2012 6:34 PM CST reply actions 4 recs
If only Al Davis were around....
/sigh
"Lord, beer me strength."
by TexansDC on Jan 16, 2012 7:28 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Just edited the post
I adjusted the draft value of Jacoby as well as the pick trades I had in there. That draft pick value chart is nifty. I didn’t even know it existed.
No Rookie WR is going to start for Houston
Houston WRs are asked to do too much in the run game to expect a rookie WR to step in and start. Why would you put Houston’s clearly dominant running game at risk in order to start a rookie WR? It’s more reasonable to expect him to eventually work in to the rotation on clear passing downs this season. Then into the starting rotation down the road.
WRs also have a high bust potential, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see WR taken later than we might expect.
We haven't gotten a 1st round wideout since Andre
of course all the late round WR’s we take can’t step in and start. They aren’t 1st round material.
"your crazy, i love you man, but your crazy"
Scenario 1: Trade two first round picks and a 4th and/or 5th this year to move up the draft and grab Justin Blackmon from Tampa’s 5th spot.
disagree…too much for a WR#1….can find better VALUE in late first round and second round…like blackmon but not that much…
Houston Texans, 2012-2013 NFL CHAMPIONS
Eh, this is a very special scenario
We are one wide out away from a Superbowl in my opinion. If there was ever a time to splurge…
That sounds so familiar, oh wait....

I'm a household name... at my house.
Michael Vick is the best throwing running back of all time.
My put your name on it prediction for the Housotn Texans.
10-6, with a first round playoff upset over either the Ravens or Steelers.
by taylorrohrman on Jan 17, 2012 12:14 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Blackmon is closer to AJ Green
and I’m guessing is thought even more highly of then Green was
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
Question bout the trade up
We are picking like what 26 or 27th right? and Tampa is 5th
Basically we are repeating what ATL did with Julio
What did they give up? 2 1sts and a 3rd right? (im most likely wrong about that) lol
And I would also like to point out that Julio did pretty darn good for a rookie
It took him a while to come on but he was one of the best wideouts in the game in the second half of the season. I imagine that’s when he finally figured out the offense and got over his hammy injury. I can only imagine what he could have done with a full off season. If we get that same kind of production out of our first round wideout, that is if we even get one, then I will be thoroughly impressed and excited.
although blackmon is going to be a beast
i cant justify spending that much on him. i think Sanu would be a better fit actually. he may not be as good as blackmon, but hes more well rounded and probably closer to a perfect fit to the system. he already knows the run blocking and can run clean, crisp routes. and he played at rutgers- so we know hes intelligent and can grasp things quickly. he also is coming out early- the last 2 that i know of to come out early? ray rice and kenny britt. there was another offensive lineman that came out early and is having a damn good career too.
point is, sanu may be better value than blackmon- blackmon may be the better name and better receiver, but i think sanu is more of what we are looking for- he can play slot/#2 and let dre groom him to be a number 1. then we can find another 2 in a few years.
Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind.
Albert Einstein, "Science, Philosophy and Religion: a Symposium", 1941
Jeffrey won't fall to #26, but if he does it's for reasons that make us not want to draft him
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
I would not want Jeffery in the first 2 rounds
He has bust written all over him. Doesn’t run good routes, out of shape, gets kicked out of his last game. South Carolina was picked as a top 10 team coming in to the season and look at how he showed up to camp in the summer. FAT
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/cover/toc/11644/index.htm
"...you may all got hell, and I will go to Texas!"
-Davey Crockett
I don't see the Rams passing Blackmon at #2.
Especially not with Fisher there. He’s Kenny Britt 2.0.
Prediction: 11-5 AFC South champions.
Besides what you're asking to trade for him is ridiculousness.
You can find a Victor Cruz and Greg Jennings for FAR cheaper in later rounds. No WR is worth that much in trade value that has never even touched an NFL field.. And it doesn’t mean your team is better if they make that move anyways. Just ask the Falcons.
Prediction: 11-5 AFC South champions.
I think before you do Sanu
Kendall Wright and Dwight Jones even Michael Floyd go before him. I am one of the guys who is going for nick toon though.
Floyd will be one of the top 3 WRs taken in the draft unless Wright's stock makes a huge jump
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Jan 17, 2012 9:01 AM CST up reply actions
O i know he is.
But Socaltexan is doing a thing on all the WR’s so i figured before he does Sanu do one for Floyd. I would not mind jumping up to get floyd, do only bad thing is there is so many other thing that can happen. maybe we get a great FA WR.
Floyd is not gonna be a Texan ever
He’s got 3 DUI arrests on his record. You know Bob McNair & Rick Smith will stay away from that kind of headache
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Jan 17, 2012 10:18 AM CST up reply actions
two words:
Dez Bryant
why would we want someone who actually has documented problems when we see a person that was just immature do all that e has done in 2 years?
I can't go for either choice.
Can’t afford to spend two #1s on Blackmon. The Texans will be drafting towards the bottom for a few years now (yay!). That makes #1 picks critical, because they’re likely the only shot we’ll get at an impact player each year.
Don’t want Jeffery higher than the third round. Really, this guy might be the most bust-ready player with a 1st round grade this year.
This draft has the player we need without trading up. It might even be best to trade back, if we can pick up another 2nd.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
Belichek goes overboard with that strategy.
This year is an exception where our need coincides with a bumper crop of players at that position. It’s a one-time opportunity, not a philosophy.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
by FreedomRide on Jan 18, 2012 11:42 AM CST up reply actions
The more I look at it
The skins/dolphins/browns potentially trading up for RG3 combined with the Jags possibly moving around the board to get Blackmon could alter about 60-75% of the picks on my board. Add in Matt Flynn/Leinart/Orton/Cambell as free agency QB snags for teams lacking talent and literally every pick could be different than it should be come draft day. The difference I have charted so far has as few as one receiver being taken before us up to as many as six or seven. We could get Sanu, or we might get stuck with Kendall Wright. We won’t know until draft day unfortunately.

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