What is Mario Williams? - An Opinion

Is Mario elite? Is he worth a huge contract? Does Mario make the other players around him better? These are all questions Texans fans ask and answer every day on this blog. Some might call it a debate. But, when it comes down to it, it doesn't matter what we think, when it comes to Mario's contract negotiations. It matters to the parties involved, Mario and Rick Smith, along with Mario's agent, Texans' owner Bob McNair and a multitude of others in bits and parts. But, that doesn't stop us from forming opinions and getting all emotional about it. That is why I am writing this.

The above questions really are a combination of objectivity and subjectivity. To try to answer these questions, can we look at the most recent Mario? Shouldn't that be the closest thing to what we might get in the near future? "Yes" say some, and "no" say others. I am writing this, so I will say "yes" and that is what I will look at.

I know that Mario has finished the last two seasons on the IR list. That is a strike against Mario, because that means I am filling his spot on the roster with another player who is not the designated starter. The only good part about this point is that another player is getting starter minutes and experience. But, that isn't a positive for Mario.

The question has arisen, does Mario make the players around him better? To answer that question, what do I look at? I could look at team record with-Mario vs. team record sans-Mario. Wouldn't that be an indicator of how he impacts the players around him? Maybe. Let's just look at 2011, for starters, and see what it says. In 2011, Mario played in 5 games. In those five games, the Texans beat a lousy Colts team; beat a lousy Dolphins team; lost to an excellent Saints team on the road; beat a good Steelers team at home; and lost to a Raiders team at home; going 3 and 2, one game over .500. Over the next 11 games of the season, the Texans went 7 and 4, including a 7 game win streak, and along the way they lost starting QB Matt Schaub, as they limped into the playoffs. Few would argue that if not for the Matt Schaub injury and injuries to others, this team may have gone 8 and 3 or better over that period. I should also point out that three of those losses came with either rookie T.J. Yates or journeyman Jake Delhomme QBing. But, it is what it is and the Texans did go three games over .500 over those last 11 games. I am looking at that and I am not seeing any indication that the team fell off as a result of losing Mario Williams.

Some will argue that Mario was learning the new OLB position in the new Wade 3-4, so how can you use those 5 games? Well I can because, in fact, for every argument made that Mario was learning a new position in a new D, I could counter with the argument that the player who took Mario's place in the lineup was a rookie who was also transitioning to OLB for the first time.

In fact, if Mario is the player who makes everyone around him better, you would expect there to not just be a falloff because he was not in, but you might expect the learning curve to go back down to zero because a rookie is coming into the lineup to take his place. Well, I don't see that. How can I say that? Is it as simple as wins and losses? Maybe, maybe not, so let's look at some other team measurements and see how they compare.

In the first five games, the defense gave up an average of 19.0 points per game. In the next 11 games sans-Mario, the defense gave up an average of 19.4 points per game. That comparison doesn't favor the with-Mario Texans or the sans-Mario Texans.

How about yards by the opposing offense? In the first five games with-Mario, the defense gave up an average of 314.0 yards per game. In the sans-Mario last 11 games, the defense gave up an average of 263.7 yards per game. That means the defense gave up 19.1% more yards per game with-Mario than sans-Mario.

How about first downs by the opposing offense? In the first five games with-Mario, the defense gave up an average of 18.2 first downs per game. In the sans-Mario last 11 games, the defense gave up an average of 16.3 first downs per game. That means the defense gave up 11.7% more first downs per game with-Mario than sans-Mario.

Someone might complain that the Saints game skews all the stats and makes them irrelevant. Well, if I don't consider the Saints game at all and throw it away, then take a look at the other four games with-Mario, only in one of those games did the defense hold the opposing offense to fewer yards than the average for the sans-Mario defense. I am not making this up for the purpose of saying that Mario sucks, folks. These are the stats for the Texans playing in the Texans Wade 3-4 defense with-Mario in his OLB position and sans-Mario in the same defense.

Based on the above, I think it is reasonable to conclude that Mario neither is elite or makes the other players better. It is also reasonable to hold to that belief that he is elite and he makes the other players better if you choose to, because these are just numbers and this is a team. It is not an individual sport by any means. There are players that impact games in different ways. There are players with certain skills and there are players with certain deficiencies.

Mario is a super athlete, no doubt. But, he is a pass-rusher with limited moves. After six seasons it would have been nice to see him develop something other than a bull-rush move. He has a great bull-rush, but the lack of any other move makes him predictable and easier to scheme against. Elite athleticism can overcome some deficiencies but it does not always equate to being an elite football player.

So, does Mario make the players around him better? I'm sure he does. But, if you look at team wins and team defensive stats, I cannot say that is true to any great extent. Is Mario an elite player? I can't say he is. I love Mario on this team. I wish he was there right to the finish. I think the team could only have benefited if he had not been injured. But, he was injured and the team went on. The team went on to the playoffs without Mario. If I was Bob McNair and Rick Smith, that would be in my mind when addressing Mario's contract negotiations. This team is bigger than the player. The team is bigger with the player, certainly, but the team is also pretty damn big without him. So, where does that leave us? I think contract demands should be tempered.

This is one person's opinion and that's all it is. And, what do they say about opinions? Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one. So, fire away.