What analysis of Mario William's free agency situation is missing
by SATexan on Jan 28, 2012 9:56 PM CST
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PrintThe big issue the Texans have this off-season is what they are going to do with they're free agents. There has already been a ton of articles about Mario William's situation, since it is the most complex of the major free agents. However, none of these analyses have taken into account Connor Barwin's impending free agency.
Connor Barwin had a major breakout year, finishing the season tied for ninth in sacks with 11.5. I don't know how he did in run defense or pass coverage, but any player who rushes the passer that well is extremely valuable. People have largely been using his performance (along with Reed's) as an argument against re-signing Mario. The problem with this argument is that Connor Barwin is a free agent himself after the 2012 season.
Just how much money will Barwin get? Well, if his 2012 season is anywhere near his 2011, he will get truckloads. Connor Barwin's 11.5 sacks put him in the top 10 in sacks this year. The comparison that jumped out at me was Charles Johnson of the Panthers. Johnson was stuck behind Julius Peppers for three years, then had a breakout season when Peppers left and got 11.5 sacks. That offseason he was a free agent but stayed with the Panthers and got a 6 year, $76 million contract ($32 million guaranteed) at 26 years old (Barwin will also be 26 when he hits free agency). We can't know how well Barwin will do next year, but with a similar season he could earn an even bigger contract than Johnson's, since he would prove he's not a fluke.
This is a significant factor in figuring out what the Texans should do with Mario. If they let Mario walk, next offseason there is another big decision to make. Unless they want to spend a high draft pick on an OLB or Braman makes huge strides, they would have to re-sign him to not have a huge hole in that linebacker spot. If they do re-sign Mario this offseason, it would seem almost impossible to also sign Barwin considering that Duane Brown, Matt Schaub, and Glover Quin, among others, become free agents after 2012. This point is further enhanced by the fact that re-signing both of them would mean Reed would sit on the bench for the next three years.
Basically, it probably comes down to a choice between Barwin and Williams. It's certainly possible to have two very expensive pass rushers on the same team (ala Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis) but it is rare and certainly could handicap you in other decisions. Thus, the front office has a decision to make. Instead of debating whether they should re-sign Mario and have a deep OLB group, what I think they are doing is debating the merits of Mario and Barwin and figuring out which one they want to keep for the long term.
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Did they change the RFA rules with the new CBA?
If not, he’ll still be cheap in 2013. He also won’t draw the same sort of contract as Johnson (and Mario) because he doesn’t have proven 4-3 experience.
According to Wikipedia it's four years till unrestricted free agency
I actually don’t think that changed under the new CBA, although i believe the uncapped year in 2010 required 5 years for unrestricted free agency.
Barwin may not have 4-3 experience, but I’m not sure why that would keep him from getting a big contract from a 3-4 team. 3-4 OLBs who rush the passer well get payed just as well as 4-3 defensive ends do, all things being equal.
What does not having extensive time as a NFL 4-3 DE have to do with an offer he gets?
If he’s get’s 13 sacks next year as a 3-4 OLB than somebody who runs a 3-4 will make a big offer for him.
Prediction: 11-5 AFC South champions.
Because 3-4 OLBs do get paid less.
And it nearly cuts in half the amount of teams that might be bidding for him. Hell, look at Lamarr Woodley’s contract. How many better OLBs are there in football? He got six years, $61 million, with $22 million guaranteed after three consecutive double-digit sack seasons. I don’t think there’s anything Barwin could do next year that would get him to that number, whereas proven 4-3 guys like Tamba Hali (and less proven guys like Charles Johnson) are up in that $12 million per year range.
Even if Barwin has a monster 2012 year, the difference between his salary and Mario’s salary is probably going to be about the size of a Brisiel or Quin salary.
Position figures are fluid though and can change.
RB’s used to get massive contracts all the time but the value of that position has diminished some the past few years and more teams are using at least 2 RB’s instead of 1 “feature back”. OLB is a position that has rising value with teams trying to get to the QB’s faster and more consistently. No Barwin might not fetch a contract quite that bit but he’ll get one that’s sizeabl especially since FA’s tend to get overpaid anyways.
And about his lack of 4-3 experience. He did still play the DE position when the Texans went Nickel in a 4 man front and he was a situational 4-3 DE his rookie year so he has substantial tape as a 4 man DE and he did show he can play that position at the NFL level quite well.
Prediction: 11-5 AFC South champions.
I looked at a lot of player's contracts while writing this fanpost
Woodley’s contract is a giant outlier when compared to all the others. I’m not sure how the Steelers got such a bargain. Demarcus Ware got a 7 year, $79 million deal with $40 million guaranteed. Suggs got a six year deal with $38 million guaranteed, and that was after three straight years of single digit sacks (he actually gets a lot fewer sacks than I thought he did). For 4-3 ends, there are some comparisons in Charles Johnson, who I already talked about, and Julius Peppers, who signed a 7 year $84 million contract with $42 million guaranteed, although the Bears had it set up so they could cut him after his first year and they would only pay him $20 million total, as most of the guaranteed money wasn’t truly guaranteed in that it was guaranteed for injury only.
Admittedly, there’s actually surprisingly few contracts that are good comparisons for either side; most good pass rushers are either on rookie deals, deals that are four or five years old, or deals that were signed before they broke out. Still, with a couple relevant contracts, it seems clear to me that both positions get paid relatively equally, possibly with a slight advantage to 4-3 ends.
Ravens run a hybrid.
Suggs plays most of his snaps as a 4-3 end. You’re right though, in that there aren’t many examples out there. One example that comes to mind though is Shaun Phillips. He posted double digit sacks in his 3rd year in the NFL (his first full year as a starter) and was rewarded with about $30 million over six years for it. Barwin will have another year or two to drive up his value, and it’ll be higher than the one Phillips signed in 2007 due to the natural order of things, but it’s a decent benchmark for a good-not-great player.
Oh, and for the record...
I do agree with your premise. Though they’re 1-2 years apart, you’re quite correct in that it is a one-or-the-other deal and Barwin will still get paid a sizable amount. I suppose there’s just no real way to know what the dollar difference is going to be between the two.
Which is why I'm saying contracts for certain positions are fluid.
With the increasing focus on passing in the NFL pass rushers are becoming more valuable so when a big name hits FA there’s a higher demand for his services thus bigger contracts than what we’ve seen in the past.
Eric Weddle was made the highest paid safety in NFL history last offseason at a position that’s in the past been seen as nothing more than a slow version of a CB. Part of the reason he got that was because of all the teams chasing him for his services. With all these power passing teams emerging having strong-great safety play is more valuable now than maybe a decade ago.
Prediction: 11-5 AFC South champions.
I tell you what
I will be ok losing barwin in free agency and keeping mario. we can pick up 3-4 LB’s
2012 1st round draft pick is...............
This is the missing analysis.
If they do re-sign Mario this offseason, it would seem almost impossible to also sign Barwin considering that Duane Brown, Matt Schaub, and Glover Quin, among others, become free agents after 2012.
Why is this assumed? Who was the last NFL player that was an actual “salary cap casualty”?
by willieboyd on Jan 29, 2012 9:40 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Typically guys who are older or are making to much money for their production.
Like last year for example the Ravens cut Derrick Mason,Todd Heap,Kelly Gregg,and Willis McGahee.
Steelers may be doing that this year with guys like Casey Hampton, James Harrison, Aaron Smith, and Johnathan Scott for example.
Prediction: 11-5 AFC South champions.
I wouldn't call any of them "salary cap casualties" in the fact that...
the owner, head coach, DC and the player themselves all stated they wanted to stay.
Those are guys who are overpaid. And yes, Walter probably fits the bill. =D
Any examples of a big name being let walk despite everyone wanting him to resign?
didn't all state, etc. etc. etc.
I hope you understand what I meant.
Overpaid starters sometimes get released and re-signed to a new deal.
Former 1st-round pick A. J. Hawk was released by the Packers on March 2, 2011. Then, on March 3, 2011, he signed a new five year deal.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
But I guess you want guys that are cut eh?
Well if they are young the only reason they are cut is horrible performance or injuries like Aaron Maybin or Shawn Merrian.
But nobody here is talking about cutting a young player like that here (well maybe Jacoby but that’s it).
Prediction: 11-5 AFC South champions.
The Bengals had money for Joseph, right?
It really wasn’t a “I wish we could re-sign him, but we can’t get him in under the cap” thing was it?
Jonathon Joseph is exactly the kind of guy I'm talking about.
The Bengals did not let him go because of the salary cap, they just didn’t want to overpay him.
I wouldn’t call any of them “salary cap casualties” in the fact that…
Well by definition that’s exactly what hey were. Guys with big contract that were to big to warrant keeping and in some cases had younger talent behind them to take their place and do as good a job if not better for cheaper.
Prediction: 11-5 AFC South champions.
I'm talking about a guy in Mario's exact situation.
A huge name player that has said he wants to stay, the owner has said he wants to stay, the coach wants him to stay and the DC wants him to stay, but he ends up leaving only because he won’t fit under the cap.
Vonta Leach.
Steve Smith (for the Giants). No not a big name but a big time clutch player for the Giants. Their front office came under immense fire when they didn’t out bid the Eagles for his services despite him wanting to stay.
Stephen Tulloch from the Titans.
Hell Nnamdi if the Raiders had been able to offer him the contract he wanted would have gone back to Oakland.
Brian Dawkins when the Eagles let him go.
I think Julias Peppers. Ravens were unable to pay Dawan Landry and had to let him walk after his contract expired.
It’s hard for me to put together a list right now because i can’t go off my memory :S. I typically forget this stuff after it happens but a team not retaining a big name despite both sides wanting to make it work happens a lot in the NFL.
Prediction: 11-5 AFC South champions.
Cool. Thanks for those examples.
I think Carolina could have resigned Peppers, though.
Maybe this does happen more than I think.
It is a bit misleading to say
Reed would sit on the bench for the next three years.
He and Mario and Barwin would rotate at OLB to keep the pass rush fresh.
Brown is the big problem next year. If he has another season like this one, he will have established himself as an elite LT and the sky is the limit.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
Yeah that's what I'm talking about OP. Thinking beyond this year.
If they don’t pay and keep Mario they’ll have to do that for Connor next year. If they let both guys get away without at least retaining one of them long term it will be a massive blunder for the franchise.
Prediction: 11-5 AFC South champions.
Like I asked earlier:
When was the last time a young, content player, who is valued by his franchise, was let go in FA simply for financial reasons? I am genuinely curious.
I think the NFL salary cap is too easy to manipulate for this to happen.
FreedomRide actually gave a good example above for AJ Hawk but that was just to give him a much cheaper contract.
But I’m not sure I’m following your line of questioning here. If Mario is offered a bigger contract by another the Texans can’t match and he goes there is nothing they can do about it.
If they do give him a huge contract then they’ll have to figure out how to pay Barwin, Schaub, Duane,and Glover next year and those won’t be little contracts and 3 of those guys will attract massive offers from other teams that have the money to make those offers. You remeber all the contract restructuring they did just to appease Andre this offseason remember?
It’s not about cutting “young content players”.
Prediction: 11-5 AFC South champions.
What I'm asking is how often do we see teams not re-sign guys in Mario's situation?
He likes it here, the team likes him here and all Bob has to do is give him enough guaranteed money to stay.
A good read here
on the Texans’ free agent classes of the next two years
Very daunting if you think about it; exactly why continuing to draft well is a must.
http://blogs.houstonpress.com/hairballs/2012/01/the_800_pound_gorilla_in_the_a.php
Kubiak believes in you
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